Afentra Share Discussion Threads

[croasdalelfc] 23/9/2023 10:29

M&P completed their purchase of 20% of Block 3/05 on 31 July 2019 - it was backdated to Jan 1 2018 . 19 months backdated revenue and inventory. They paid net $35m (initial headline purchase price was $80m) . That is 44% of initial price.Brent averaged $69 in the backdated period.Compare with AET for Sonogol acquisition 14% of Bock 3/05 for $56m (the same $4m per 1%)20 Nov 2023 is 19 months backdatedBrent average is $90 through that period (and rising slightly)44% of $56m would be net ~$24.5m35% of $56m would be net ~$20mWith a much higher Brent then perhaps it will be as low $18m-$20m by end Nov

[croasdalelfc] 23/9/2023 09:05

It's highly likely the new fiscal regime will be backdated to 1st July . The Azule barrels have or will be sold after that date ~800k by 31st Oct

[spooky] 22/9/2023 15:10

Its fairly obvious that the shares are very cheap if the deals reach completion. However, it is an IF. The admission document clearly outlines the hurdles that must be jumped before that can happen. Patience will be needed.

[zengas] 22/9/2023 14:25

ZENGAS - 18 Sep 2023 - 07:52:26 - 821 of 846
With 3/05 running at over 20k bopd since end July and 1.45k in 3/05A net production is around 6,300 bopd.
--------------------------------

Production still rising as evident from the 20th Sept webcast presentation (p4)

3/05 - August 2023 production averaged 21,000 bopd (30%)
3/05A - running at 1450 bopd (21.33%)
Net production therefore about 6,600 bopd last month.

Pretty material increase from when first purchased and impacted from higher oil prices.This could continue to rise from the increased water injection programme as well as workovers and further drilling.

Also worth pointing out for anyone that hasn't read the 5/9/23 'Upstream' arcticle

"However, what has also caught Afentras eye is a clutch of unlicensed discoveries close to production facilities in 3/05. 'we tend not to talk about them too much' McDade told Upstream recently but did offer a little more detail. 'Each discovery has at least one well. I think most of them have been tested ...its kind of 1,000, 2,000 bpd but they've just been ignored.'

According to a map in a recent company presentation at leat 7 discoveries lie within tie back facilities at Palanca and Impala. They were undeveloped because they were just too small for the majors."

All in all, very appealing with a build and buy programme, and will do for me since i first started buying.

[croasdalelfc] 22/9/2023 08:50

the IMC call all mentioned that the new fiscal terms would be backdated by a few months - hence management are a little vague with the numbers . There is a lot to juggle .Btw Azule are owned 50:50 by BP and ENI - not a mid cap or small player squabbling over every $

[croasdalelfc] 22/9/2023 08:40

This table (shown in linked tweet) strongly suggests Azule haven't lifted any barrels since before 30 June 22. All barrels accrued since 31 October 22 would be attributable to AET. That is ~ 800k barrels at 31 Oct 202.The call also suggested by omission that Azule haven't sold the oil between June 23 and nowIf Azule sell the oil in the next month or two we get the dosh after costs , tax etc and pay a very low asking price on completion or we pay the full price and then sell the oil which at 31 Oct and $90 Brent would be worth ~$72m.Btw Azule are owned 50:50 by BP and ENI - not a mid cap or small player squabbling over every $ https://twitter.com/messages/media/1705118766881751321

[croasdalelfc] 22/9/2023 08:30

Nice thread here: Mr Rhino is clued uphTTPs://x.com/riccardino999/status/1704618945309733096?s=46&t=6X1g83YbY4t-D9n0LuuFng

[pnetol] 21/9/2023 11:31

That was meant to be laughing faces

[fireplace22] 21/9/2023 10:05

I prefer the original.

[1senn] 21/9/2023 09:53

A pop up should read

[1senn] 21/9/2023 09:39

This price is a nonsence now.
Should be mid thirties at least .

My theory is Our distressed seller Me Griffiths is selling his remaining stake of around 3% might be less not that much so expect a poo once he has finished imho

[onedayrodders] 20/9/2023 11:43

Something significant being built here by this Company, I'm backing Paul McDade to take this to a market cap of multiples of today's over the next few years.

That's too long for most on AIM nowadays (a few minutes is too long for some), but those who sit tight and top up as others chase the Next hot thing will reap the rewards.

IMHO

[croasdalelfc] 19/9/2023 19:57

If anyone is on the call tomorrow can you submit the following questionGiven a eventual 30% stake in Block 3/05 how often are liftings attributable to AET anticipated?

[copandrobber] 19/9/2023 18:44

Always going to be some churn of event driven traders. Seems it has pushed through. Should see this runs into mid 30s in the next few weeks/month on closing of deal.

[dragon35] 19/9/2023 12:45

It trades on SETS so likely algo trades but who knows in reality. Could just as likely be a bored trader!

[puffet] 19/9/2023 10:34

Excuse my ignorance but can someone explain what all these small trades going through are - 10 and 20 shares?

[cf456] 19/9/2023 10:25

'Oil prices could soon top $100 a barrel, analysts have warned, as a steep rally continues on the back of Saudi Arabian and Russian production curbs.'

[copandrobber] 19/9/2023 08:51

Brent at $94

[yawn1971] 18/9/2023 16:07

Excitement over for one day ?!?

[wbodger] 18/9/2023 14:12

I'm glad they emerged from suspension without waiting for an announcement of contract signing. That means investors can buy in on hope or sell on fear, and take their chances in the market.

[jungmana] 18/9/2023 12:50

Any questions? ask here,Afentra will be hosting a Management "presentation audiocast via Investor Meet Company on 20 September 2023 at 10.00am BST ( https://www.investormeetcompany.com/afentra-plc/register-investor ) and a short accompanying presentation will be uploaded to the Afentra website: https://afentraplc.com/investors/ .Analysts and investors wishing to participate in the Q&A session can do so by pre-submitting questions via the Investor Meet Company platform or via the chat function of the live presentation, and these will be addressed by management during the audiocast."

[cf456] 18/9/2023 11:48

"we reiterate our BUY stance with a raised target price of 60p (vs. 40p)."

"In summary, with Afentra shares trading on a P/NAV of 0.4x and an EV/EBITDA of 1.7x (FY24), we see significant upside at present levels - with the promise of further value steps to come."


Broker note here -

[jungmana] 18/9/2023 11:07

Aren't the acquisitions nearly paid off ( ie the debt) by the oil production accrued since the deals effective dates?The smallest acquisition just brought in $26 million in sale of 300k barrels

[ashkv] 18/9/2023 10:39

You have to factor in the debt

Jungmana18 Sep '23 - 07:20 - 818 of 824
0 2 0
What's the fair valuation here today? imo must be worth minimum GBP 120 million , that is 50p.
"Net 2P reserves of approx. 33 mmbbls(1,3) and net 2C resources of approx. 20 mmbbls(1,3,4)
-- Production of approx. 5,700 bbl/d net (including production from Block 3/05A)(6) "