Afentra Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 17/3/2023 12:07

Angola were clearly forced to respond to the excellent terms Exxon achieved for their Guyana offshore Blocks if they wanted to see the colour of Exxon's cash.

This development will increase the attraction of Angola's O&G Industry for investment by existing and new industry players....as to avoid having partially developed stranded assets O&G E&P companies will increasingly want better terms(lower overall taxed/ heavily front end loaded returns) for new projects with a circa 25 year potential commercial life.

[affc21] 16/3/2023 13:37

New fiscal terms for new ultra deep water blocks signed for (not our blocks, yet):https://africaoilgasreport.com/2023/03/in-the-news/exxon-gets-better-fiscal-terms-for-angolas-new-deepwater-blocks/

[onedayrodders] 16/3/2023 08:04

Perhaps the weakening oil price will focus the minds of the African signatures required

[jungmana] 15/3/2023 17:01

Agreed MT , I have a similar average too after top ups this week

[jungmana] 15/3/2023 15:49

Decide to add a few today about 23p. Brave or just naive? with what's going on with the markets

[zengas] 08/3/2023 14:44

Panoro Energy just 24 months ago was a small Norwegian operator in Africa and then bought 6900 boepd/25 mmbbls 2P for $135m at $5.60/per P2 barrel in Gabon & Eq Guinea on top of their existing Tunisian production.
Ex Dividend today of 0.2639 NOK ($3m being paid 16/3/23).
35.82m P2. Production 7,500 bopd for f/yr 2022.
Net debt $46.5m/£39m.
113.69m shares @ 29.68 NOK/£2.35 = £267m m/cap.

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I added more AET yesterday and today. On current oil prices, P2 of 28 mmbo and not far off 5k bopd along with a small net debt profile, should be worth around £150m+ m/cap or 70p is reasonable when you compare against Panoro (under CEO John Hamilton who used to be at Imperial Energy some years ago). It won't take long for AET to be nearly or completely debt free.

I think the next growth step for AET will be greater reserves/production and in time a possible short suspension if deemed an RTO.

5/5/21 - 'Former Tullow Oil executives have launched their Afentra venture, focused on production up and down West Africa. Paul McDade, Afentra CEO, explained the company is focused on opportunities arising from the exit of majors from the region. “That transition is based on maturing assets becoming marginal for the majors." Afentra has big plans. “The primary focus is on material production. We don’t want 1,000-2,000 barrels per day, we’re looking for multiple tens of thousands".

[jungmana] 08/3/2023 11:54

Also had a tiny top up of 8k, profits from this mornings panr trade.Every little helps

[tromso1] 08/3/2023 10:55

'Overall I remain totally confident that not only will this deal complete before long but that it will be a transformational one for the company as envisaged and in my view lead to other equally value enhancing deals in due course.'

[1senn] 08/3/2023 10:07

Good time to buy expecting MC over 150 mill come year end on one more deal

ATB

[x54v] 08/3/2023 09:53

Topped up with 114500. Print should show later.

Great long term potential here imo.

[kevjones2] 07/3/2023 15:49

For the sake of security in one's investment it would be nice to get both deals over the line but the reality is Afentra's payment will be hugely reduced. Those fees decrease considerably with each passing month.

[mount teide] 07/3/2023 11:49

BP's Energy Outlook 2023 is well worth a read - following publication, BP has rowed back on its commitment to materially reduce oil production by 2030.

By my analysis, BP's New Momentum Scenario in the report is already understating Oil production, which BP expects to peak between 2030 - 2035 at below 100m bpd, while their Accelerated and NET Zero Scenarios look the work of pure fiction!

Reads extremely well from the perspective of an investor with holdings in low carbon intensity O&G assets!

BP Energy Outlook 2023 edition

[onedayrodders] 07/3/2023 11:00

TENNYSON Morning news – Afentra PLC – Angola completion update
Tennyson Securities, Energy Research
7 Mar 2023


Afentra (AET LN) has announced an update on its two Angolan deals. The INA transaction, which has received ministerial approval, is expected to complete by the long stop date of 17 April 2023 – despite the process being impacted by some additional paperwork delays. Meanwhile, regarding the Sonangol transaction, to allow time to finalise remaining CPs (most notably the licence extension), talks are underway with Sonangol to extend the long stop to 30 June vs. 31 March 2023. AET notes that the Block 3/05 partners are now in final discussions with the regulator ANPG around a licence extension to at least 2040 and expect it to include improved fiscal terms which will enhance field economics. Finally, an Executive Decree, dated 27 Feb 2023, has extended the term of the exploration licence on Block 23 to 2 Dec 2026. This will allow more time for the new consortium (AET and Sonangol) to discuss and agree the forward work programme.

For both INA & Sonangol deals, as the consideration is adjusted for cash flow accrued since effective dates, the deferral means a smaller cash payment on closing. In its latest presentation (published today), AET has included a completion statement for the INA transaction totalling US$18.4m. In addition, some US$15.2m worth of oil inventory (190k bbls @ US$80/bbl) has accrued to AET’s name due to infrequent crude liftings on the INA interest. As such, the net cash outflow on completion is estimated at just US$3.2m. A further US$10m is due on finalisation of the Block 3/05 licence extension. Taking today’s update into account, we estimate an aggregate completion payment for the INA + Sonangol transactions of US$40-55m (depending on the exact Sonangol closing date in Q2 and netting off oil inventory value) – some ~33-50% lower than AET’s earlier estimate (which assumed INA + Sonangol closing on 1 Oct 2022). Thus, the additional time taken to completion is far from all bad, in our opinion.

Alongside the transaction update, AET also reported latest production numbers for Block 3/05. FY22 output averaged 18.7 kbopd (4.5 kbopd net to AET’s 24% stake), compared to 19.2 kbopd for first 9M. This reflects planned downtime in the final quarter to improve the efficiency of power generation facilities with a view to achieving higher water injection uptime. These production numbers were already in the public domain courtesy of licence partner Maurel & Prom (Paris-listed). Encouragingly, AET notes a significant increase in average water injection rates in the first couple of months of 2023 which bodes well for production levels over the coming year.

[mount teide] 07/3/2023 08:14

Yes, and the total debt required to finance the Sonangol deal should be reduced to a small fraction of that announced in the Aug 2022 Presentation, as the additional cash accrued since 1st October 2022 through to May 2023, is likely to be worth $45-50m, against an expected debt facility for the asset of $62m.

The Key terms for the $62m debt facility are: 5-year tenor, 8% margin over 3-month SOFR2 - so a massive future debt interest payment saving will be made as a result of the extended completion date and high average Brent rate from the previous expected closure date.

[jungmana] 07/3/2023 07:13

By the time this deals finally conclude, they will payout for themselves:"The Company continues to benefit from accrued asset cash flow from the respective effective dates of each transaction, which will be offset against the initial consideration as set out in the respective sale and purchase agreements. In addition, we expect to accrue a significant crude inventory stock from the INA transaction due to the infrequent liftings for this interest. "

[x54v] 06/3/2023 09:21

CFO presentation (from 28:14)

[croasdalelfc] 01/3/2023 15:36

Friday, 24 February 2023 20:09Sonangol has already sold 24 assets and hopes to privatize another seven this yearfont size Print Email Sonangol has already sold 24 assets and hopes to privatize another seven this yearSonangol has already sold a total of 24 assets, which have yielded more than 120 million euros, and is in negotiations to privatize another seven this year, the chairman of the board of directors of the Angolan state oil company said today."This total of divested assets allows us to say that we have contracted, in terms of divestiture, the equivalent of a collection of 130 million dollars [121.5 million euros]," Gaspar Martins said at a press conference.The chairman of the board of directors of the National Fuel Society of Angola (Sonangol) assured that the company collected the values as they were negotiating the assets, pointing out that those that were not received in their entirety are the result of the way they were sold."Of the first ones we have there, for example from 2022, the values of 48 million dollars (44.8 million euros] are assured and 130 million dollars we have contracted, more than 30% at least are already assured, which does not mean that we will not receive all the values," he added.Gaspar Martins gave as an example the buildings of the first phase privatized on Avenida da República, in Portugal, whose values "are with Sonangol".The company also reported that 24 assets have been privatized, 18 are in the process of exclusion and 13 others are about to be sold, of which seven are expected to occur in the current year.Regarding the sale of six oil blocks, namely blocks 3/05, 15/06, 18, 23, 27 and 31, the executive administrator of Sonangol, Joaquim Fernandes, stressed that the initial collection perspective is about 860 million dollars (804.2 million euros), and may reach about 1.1 billion dollars (one billion euros).Joaquim Fernandes advanced that the companies for the sale of the blocks have already been decided, namely block 3/05 to Afentra (24%), 15/06 to the Namcor/Sequa/Petrolog consortium (10%), 18 to the Somoil/Sirius consortium (8.28%), 23 to the Namcor/Sequa/Petrolog consortium (40%) and Afentra (40%), 27 (SAccording to the administrator, at this time the negotiations for the purchase and sale contracts and subsequently the risk payment procedures are taking place."It is the 'down payment' that guarantees the commitment to execution in the tenders and are currently collected about 23 million dollars [21.5 million euros], the remainder will be received as soon as several previous aspects are completed that will be the purchase and sale contracts and also the issuance of the executive decrees, which will guarantee the entry of these entities," he said.

[zengas] 24/2/2023 11:04

Genel Energy guidance 17/1/23 RNS No mention of the Odewayne block andthe Toosan well appears to be the adjacent SL10B13 block.

' Up to c.$25 million expenditure in Somaliland, as we progress towards the spudding of the Toosan-1 well in this frontier basin.

Genel continues to invest in the host communities in which we operate, aiming to invest in those areas in which we can make a material difference to society, with an increasing focus on Somaliland in 2023.

Preparation continues for the drilling of the Toosan-1 well on the highly prospective SL10B13 block (51% working interest and operator).

The Toosan prospect contains stacked Mesozoic reservoir objectives, with multiple individual prospective resource estimates each ranging from 100 to 200 MMbbls.

The geotechnical survey has now completed as we progress towards construction of the well pad. Environmental and social impact assessments are underway, and tendering has commenced for the rig and well services.

Genel continues to target a spud date in the next 12-18 months, acknowledging the challenges of operating in such a frontier area with limited existing infrastructure. '

[x54v] 24/2/2023 07:56

“INA reporting on Angola disinvestment from FY2022, released 16/02/23”

“Divestment of Angolan assets: SPA with Afentra Angola, Ltd. was signed; in December 2022 transfer of INA`s

Participating Interest (PI) on blocks 3/05 and 3/05a has been approved by the Minister of Mineral resources”

[onedayrodders] 23/2/2023 11:39

Current share price action resembling a fight between believers and bored 'punters'
Bored punters nudging ahead slowly. Which is to be expected on AIM.

Let's hope they have 'cashed out' way too early

[kevjones2] 20/2/2023 13:00

I wonder what's happening with Genel apropos Odewayne. That seems like it's going to be huge.

Edit: Just found this on the Afentra website. Long way to go but could be huge:

"Afentra has a current interest in a high potential exploration project, onshore southwestern Somaliland. The Odewayne Block covers a very large area (circa 22,000km²), located adjacent to the border with Ethiopia. The PSA covers block SL6 and part of blocks SL7 and SL10.

The Company’s wholly owned subsidiary, Afentra (East Africa) Limited (‘SE(EA)L̵7;) holds a 34% working interest, with our partners Genel Energy (50% and Operator) and Petrosoma Limited (16%). The Company is fully carried by Genel Energy for its share of all exploration costs during the Third and Fourth Periods of the PSA.

The PSA, awarded in 2005, is in the Third Period (expiring May 2024)* which included a minimum work obligation of 500km of 2D seismic. The minimum work obligation during the Fourth Period of the PSA (expiring May 2025)* is for 1,000km of 2D seismic and one exploration well. Extensive fieldwork and a high-resolution gravity and magnetic data acquisition programme have been completed.

The Government sponsored 2D seismic campaign of 1,000kms on the Odewayne Block was completed in August 2017. The campaign satisfied the minimum work obligation for the current third period.

* The Third Period expiry, as described in the 8th Amendment to the PSA, is currently extended by 2 years, as are all subsequent periods. Current expiry date of the Third Period is therefore May 2024."

[denziiil] 17/2/2023 20:00

A couple of comparisons here.Afentra defintely not overstretching the license request by comparison.Total Extends All Block 17 Production Licenses December 16, 2019License extended to 2045.(26 years)Production 440,000 bopd.CABGOC Secures Renewal of Block 0 Concession in Angola Through 2050Date December 06, 2021(29 years)Production 89,000 bopd.(Afentra) Block 3/05 PSA requested approval until at least 31 December 2040.Date. Date April 28 2022(18 years)C 20,000 bopd.

[mount teide] 17/2/2023 10:39

Very confident the deal will complete - plus we have the added bonus that the longer it takes the less we pay!

[upwego] 15/2/2023 20:32

We be nice to complete on this deal.

They did say in the coming weeks so could be anytime really.