Any idea as to what proportion of $35 is allocated to Abex?
dragon3512 Sep '24 - 08:10 - 566 of 567
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And the $35 cost per barrel includes reserved funds for abex so it’s covered in that anyway. |
It does show up in long term liabilities and the language is such that it conveys funds are not held by operator in advance. Why else would it be a long term liability if the funds were already allocated?
Could you please guide me as to where it specifies the funds are already held by the operator. Thank you
Non-current liabilities
Provisions (11) $130,919,000
catsick12 Sep '24 - 07:59 - 565 of 566
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The decom is a non issue, there is a future li to clean up and there is a cash reserve held by the operator to cover, what is likely is that as the life of the field is extended the funds held to pay for cleaning up are more and more than needed , aet inherited this share of the cash held when they took over the share of the field, its a total non issue and a cost they don’t have to pay in for that a new development would need to |
And the $35 cost per barrel includes reserved funds for abex so it's covered in that anyway. |
The decom is a non issue, there is a future liability to clean up and there is a cash reserve held by the operator to cover, what is likely is that as the life of the field is extended the funds held to pay for cleaning up are more and more than needed , aet inherited this share of the cash held when they took over the share of the field, its a total non issue and a cost they don't have to pay in for that a new development would need to |
The planned three-week shutdown on Block 3/05 facilities will start on 13 September. The shutdown is to conduct maintenance work across all platforms and infrastructure to enable improved field performance.
H2 2024 Average Production will be lower. Surprised that AET didn't include updated guidance for 2024 production.
return_of_the_apeman12 Sep '24 - 07:54 - 562 of 563
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"Afentra management believes there is potential to deliver a step-change in production to in excess of 30,000 bopd gross"
"On price protection, we will be looking to build out the oil hedge program we have successfully put in place for our February, June and August liftings. In respect of our projected Q4 2024 lifting we have placed a combination of puts (230,000 bbls at $70/bbl floor) and zero cost collars (170,000 bbls, $70/bbl floor / $90.40/bbl ceiling)" |
 Share Price - AET-> 44.6
AET Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 24.1p on 15 Sep 23-> 85.06%
AET Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 62.2p on 11 June 24-> -28.30%
Brent-> $71.50
Shares Outstanding-> 220,053,520
Market Cap (GBP)-> £98,143,870
GBPUSD-> 1.305
Market Cap (USD)-> $128,077,750
Production Average HY 2024-> 6,696
Production Average FY 2023-> 4,478
Production Average FY 2022-> 5,970
Cash (30 Jun 24)-> $13,800,000
Net Debt (30 June 24) -> $46,400,000
Net Debt Post Q3 Crude Lifting (12 Sep 24) -> $0
AET Next Crude Cargo (~550,000bbls) in late Q4 24 / early Q1 25.at $75 Brent Subtract 6% Petroleum Tax (As per HY Results 24)-> $38,775,000
Enterprise Value (Market Cap + Debt - Cash) (USD)-> $174,477,750
EV/Barrel Average AET Net Production HY 2024-> $26,057
EV/Barrel AET Net Production HY 2024 including Q3 Lifting -> $19,128
Decommissioning Liabilities (HY 2024 Results) -> $130,900,000
EV/Barrel Average HY 24 Production Including Decommissioning Liabilites -> $38,676
2P Reserves Post Revised Acquisitions-> 32,000,000
EV/2P-> $5.45 |
"Afentra management believes there is potential to deliver a step-change in production to in excess of 30,000 bopd gross"
And good news regarding the drop in oil prices recently
"On price protection, we will be looking to build out the oil hedge program we have successfully put in place for our February, June and August liftings. In respect of our projected Q4 2024 lifting we have placed a combination of puts (230,000 bbls at $70/bbl floor) and zero cost collars (170,000 bbls, $70/bbl floor / $90.40/bbl ceiling)" |
Had seen a broker note with decommissioned liabilities at 133 ..so 130 is a bit below. |
Paul McDade, Chief Executive Officer, Afentra plc commented:
"We are pleased with the progress made during the first half of 2024, which marks a pivotal period for Afentra as we transition into a producing company. The successful completion of our acquisitions in Angola has provided the financial foundation for the company, with our strong balance sheet reflecting not only the robust cash-generating capacity of these assets but also our commitment to disciplined and strategic value driven deal-making. We continue to build out our position in Angola with the entry into the Kwanza onshore basin which we consider to be a further organic value opportunity.
Our team's dedication and the strong relationships with our partners and ANPG have been instrumental in achieving these milestones, and we remain committed to driving further value for our shareholders. As we look ahead, we will continue to focus on optimising our current assets while exploring new opportunities that align with our strategy of responsible and sustainable growth in Africa." |
$130.9 million Decommissioning Liabilities to reckon with - were we guided prior as to the same?
The below caught me out / made for unwelcome reading ->
" Other non-current assets
The Group have reviewed the accounting treatment for the decommissioning fund held by the Block 3/05 Operator and have recognised a non-current asset and an offsetting non-current liability for $130.9 million (30 June 2023: $12.7 million; 31 December 2023: $77.0 million), which equates to the present value of the future decommissioning liability. It is management's view that the future liability for decommissioning is represented by the totality of the funds held by the Operator, specifically for such purposes. The non-current asset held for decommissioning liability is limited to the lower of the present value of the future decommissioning liability and the amount of the funds held by the Operator."
"The increase in the non-current decommissioning provision during the first half of 2024 is mainly due to additional liability assumed pursuant to the Azule transaction (note 12)." |
There aren't any surprises in results and as expected to be debt free by Q3.
So all in all are good results.
Regarding share price, am not expecting significant changes until we get new deal/acquisition. |
A nice set of results IMO.
Financial Summary
- Pre-tax revenue of $75.7 million (H1 2023: nil)
- Adjusted EBITDAX of $40.8 million (H1 2023: loss of $0.8 million)
- Profit after tax of $22.2 million (H1 2023: loss of $3.9 million)
- Cash resources as at 30 June 2024 of $13.8 million (30 June 2023: $15.7 million)
- Debt drawdowns at 30 June 2024:
o Reserve Based Lending Facility: $47.3 million (30 June 2023: $12.8 million)
o Working Capital Facility: $13.7 million (30 June 2023 $9.1 million)
- Net debt at 30 June 2024 of $46.4 million (30 June 2023: $6.5 million)
Net debt on 30 June 2024 excludes the June crude oil sale of $37.6 million, which is classified as a receivable as of 30 June 2024 due to timing of cash receipt (July) post-period. Cash balance post the June and Q3 2024 liftings estimated to be approximately $40 million, reducing net debt to around zero. |
Looking like the bottom until the Q2 results so had a little top up just below 45pProbably go down now. :-) |
Q2results any day, and we know of no reason why this shouldn't be extremely positive. gla. |
Major oil field development projects - in a bid to undercut the US Shale Oil industry and, protect the huge upfront investment cost of developing large offshore oil fields, the Oil majors are now focusing on new projects with a $25-30/bbl break even.
According to a 2024 US Oil industry survey, the current break even oil price for the US shale oil industry is $54/bbl, with new wells averaging $62/bbl.
US oil production data up to July 2024, shows total output below where it was in December 2023 - suggesting production output from the Shale Oil tight plays is collectively slowing rapidly from the +651k/bopd and +676k/day average annual growth achieved since 2017 and post Covid respectively.....industry sources cite inflationary pressures, the softening oil price and high break even price as the primary contributing factors, now the industry is focused on return on investment rather than chasing market share after racking up over $300bn of negative cash flow. |
Oil Price Movement - some thoughts:
Jeff Currie - former Head of Commodities at Goldman Sachs and now Chief Energy Strategy Officer at Carlyle, said today at the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference in Singapore, that fears of an oil market glut are being “Completely Overplayed”.
"Oil market participants are dramatically overestimating a supply glut, as Chinese demand is not as doom-and-gloom as headline figures suggest and U.S. crude oil production is basically flat this year" Jeff said today.
According to Currie, "Chinese weaknesses in demand is being deeply exaggerated by base effects and by destocking.” (It's no coincidence, that like the US most strategic oil reserves in the West are plumbing multi decade lows).
"The key issue is, the market is dramatically overestimating that flood [in oil supply], and it’s reflected in record short positions … and I’ve never seen anything like that,” Currie said.
To support Currie's view, with global oil demand now at an all time record high, why should the net short position:
* Be at its greatest level since 2011, when oil sector short/long data was first collected? And
* More importantly, why should the net short position be at a significantly GREATER level than during the Covid Pandemic when oil demand collapsed by 15 million bopd?
Makes little sense.
Smacks of market manipulation by collectively running down the West's Strategic Oil Reserves to multi decade lows, while the US Government's "You scratch our back we'll scratch yours!) Wall Street friends use the now 50 times greater size paper oil market over the physical they have created to help deliver the desired impact on oil and petrol/diesel pricing, to influence the result in the Presidential election. Of course the world's largest oil buyers like China, India and SE Asia would never say no to cheaper pricing!
A win, win, win for those that want oil at lower prices - however, its unsustainable over anything other than the short term, as the US found during the Covid era, because of the relatively high break even pricing of Shale Oil.
AIMHO/DYOR |
Nothing but bad sentiment for Oil currently
Small Business sentiment figures out today fell through the floor today versus expectations
Recession mindset creeping in methinks.
Tin hats at the ready for a while I guess.
The cynic in me would not rule out a sudden new conflict in an Oil sensitive country far far away or OPEC just turn off the taps.
ODR |
Next stop $65 for oil. So AET make $30 a barrel at that price. They sell approx 2.5m barrels a year so what will a rebased share price be at that level? This is why they really need another deal before the mcap swings too low and it results in it being classed as an RTO with more difficult financing operations which will suspend it for a year or two again. |
Thanks, that's around 700 barrels a minute, impressive stuff. |
bbl - an LR2 tanker with a capacity in the 800,000 bbl to 1.0m bbl range would typically take 18-24hrs to load. |
My guess is results are out this week sometime and at the same time they will give the current cash balance post payment of the recent offload, hopefully that will highlight the current excellent post deal position and some plans for what to do with the cash tthat is now flowing, they also have enough facilities available now to do a reasonable deal, there are some very cheap small oilers out there .... |
MT would you say that is a fair timescale to transfer 790,000 bbls? |
August Crude Oil Lift - Crude Oil Shuttle Tanker 'TROY' arrived at FSO Palanca at circa 0600hrs on the 9th August and departed that evening. |
Anyone know whether the August lift was successful? We haven't had an RNS which you might expect. its material news for a company of this size. |
Agreed - Q2 results likely around 12th September, so those may inject some life into the share price |
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