Afc Energy Share Discussion Threads

[new tech] 15/3/2015 14:24

"...Aggressive target of 1 Gigawatt (1,000MW) of AFC Energy fuel cell capacity in the pipeline by the end of 2020...Assuming a target (approximate) capital pricing of 1MW at US$3.0m (which is highly competitive relative to other fuel cell technologies), this produces a cumulative AFC “book” value at approx. US $3.0 billion in 6 years... Achievement of the above should make AFC Energy the largest fuel cell energy company in the world..." AFC, Presentation - Slide 7,

[tidy 2] 15/3/2015 13:27

That was said at 14p

[traidemark] 15/3/2015 13:23

as with many stocks that rightly re-rate if you trust charts it will cost you money.

they mean nothing on a re-rate.

[milliecusto] 15/3/2015 13:14

You seem to be ramping this alot,if you looked at the chart it was met with a lot of selling at 30p area,it will need greater volume to break and hold above 30p..i.e news.

[ride the wave] 15/3/2015 13:07

Charts can be thrown out of the window on this transformational news . The volume is getting bigger each day and I don't expect it to stop anytime soon . The fundamentals are doing all the talking .

It's all about dividends .

[tidy 2] 15/3/2015 13:04

AFC look like they are heading the beginning of a new ere. No more drilling holes to find hydrocarbons, these guys are surrounded by hydrogen gold, not a drill or the associated expense in sight.

[tidy 2] 15/3/2015 12:59

What a crank lmao. Smh

[traidemark] 15/3/2015 12:45

£8.89

I think that's conservative to be honest, theres not many opps like this around at the moment so as mentioned above day traders will be all over it in the mornings and shorters all over it in the afternoons but it will achieve value in the end.

[milliecusto] 15/3/2015 12:45

It will need to break 32p as that acted on resistance on friday,it may need further news to break 32p.

[bam_bam_matt] 15/3/2015 12:30

Great news thanks guys

[city chappy] 15/3/2015 12:24

bam bam you can put AFC into an ISA or SIPP.

[city chappy] 15/3/2015 12:23

tidy -
They are looking at non-recourse finance for the big Korean project i.e. secured loans not share issues.Obviously as the project progresses it will generate its own revenues for AFC. To reduce expenditure early projects will use joint ventures, licensing and technology sales.

They have done more testing on the 101 stack than you realise. Additionally its not just about going big or bigger but also about offering smaller systems to the market depending on customer needs and they will be caterng for all these needs.

9/3/2015:
"The 101 fuel cell stack was initially tested at AFC's UK facility in late February, then shipped to Germany, installed and has been operating continuously since 3 March 2015. AFC's technical team were highly encouraged that initial gas flow, thermal management and consistency of individual fuel cell performance across the 101 cells are in-line with expectations. The relative uniformity of fuel cell performance affirms the quality focus of AFC's increasingly automated manufacturing and production facilities.

Whilst the first successful 101 fuel cell stack trial demonstrates the operability of the fundamental building block of the KORE system, it also allows AFC to consider alternative products of varying capacities modularised at the size of the 101 cell cartridge, rather than a single focus on the previously scoped 240kW KORE system. In this context, AFC's market offering becomes increasingly flexible to meet the needs of smaller energy requirements (in integers of 10kWs). AFC is currently in discussions with potential customers and partners who are assessing opportunities sized at the single cartridge size which again widens AFC's possible market potential and commercialisation potential in the short term."

[43rick] 15/3/2015 12:07

I have it in my iii ISA.

[bam_bam_matt] 15/3/2015 12:05

Can you put this share in a Stocks and Shares ISA via Halifax say for example does anyone know?

Thanks

[tidy 2] 15/3/2015 11:41

Pond1 post in response to BumbleB In answering the questions put by BumbleB,1 Electrodes already proven to last more than one year.2 Proven that production in volume can be achieved via an automated process, which can obviously be multiplied many times as and when required.3 Proven over a year ago, that old electrodes can be recycled at end of life.4 Waste heat and pure water use proven in principal but not yet taken up by an end user, but this would be a bonus to the main aim.As to the comment re risks are that the technology does not work as anticipated, or that there are delays in getting it to work have all been answered in recent trials. We now have solid evidence and time lines.As to fresh funding required, possible but not necessaries fact as yet.The risk that customers could be slower than anticipated to take up the product, something I now doubt as I feel the queue by year end will be long.The stacks are still being tested and the 101 cell cells have still not been tested at full power yet and it has taken longer than expected to get to this stage, yes it has taken longer but it appears that the larger the stack, the better performance. Same surely applies to the Kore platform.As the final para states, they are working on removing the bottleneck between the extruder and robot.This time last year I would fully agree that the delays looked to be holding longer term progress back, but of late I feel that the company has the right balance as the worse thing now would be to get too far in advance of itself.Can't argue with BumbleB's post, just wanted to put my slant on things looking at the companies present position.

[tidy 2] 15/3/2015 11:39

Interesting posted by Domino2 on iii For the first time we have seen the company itself give indications of future investment potential rather than brokers notes.I have done 3 rough calculations for year end 2020 based on 1GW, $3billion book value and the 2012 broker note and none of them come out any less than £8.89 per share.Taking the estimated target book price of $3 billon in 6 years time and lets assume another funding round with total number of shares being 350 million and a conservative price to book ratio of 2 (Fuel Cell Energy P/B ratio is over 4) gives an share price of £11.43Peats report from 2012 gave a very conservative share price target of 80p but that was based on 90MW by 2020. 1GW would give an share price in the region of £8.89 but lots of things were unproven back in 2012 and the discount applied to Peat's estimate should be better 3 years later on.The 1GW estimate has to assume profit figures and a P/E ratio.Assuming 10% profit and P/E ratio of 8 and also assuming AFC only getting 40% of the full 1GW future contracts as per last weeks partner announcement for 50MW the share price would be approx. £12.Has anyone else done approx. calculations to see if I am in the right region.

[petewy] 15/3/2015 11:10

Go on by all means Tidy. You make sense.

[tidy 2] 15/3/2015 10:57

LSE Today 10:03 Price: 22.63sunnyca 206 postsI have neverbefore posted any share as a anything other than the "no opinion" option and don't post that often, as stated before I also don't day trade, not that I have anything against it but its just not my strategy, but we will inevitably attract the day traders who will flip this all the way up and good luck to them, however my advice for what it's worth is to buy and hold for a minimum of 1-3 yrs as I firmly believe this is an opportunity (as has been mooted) to be on the ground floor of an "APPLE". As for commercially viable and speaking with my "engineering project manager" hat on.... do people really believe that a project of the magnitude of this 50MW plant is simply a very expensive excercise in demonstrating the viability? That makes me smile.This is business, all 3 parties are in it to make alot of money hence the possible tie up for the future ventures, There are no "ifs" i.e. "If this works bla bla bla" it's difinative. Read the RNS properly as have the guys fortunate enough to be able to pump £70k in.

[norbus] 15/3/2015 10:48

bz

Many a mug will burn fingers ; People paid in mid 30's Friday, already showing a deferred tax asset¬! I got moderated by New Tech of phe fame who created a new thread in my honour; he could not deal with an analysis of the last RNS in response to a peep question;

US$ 1 bn over 10 years = US$ 100m revenue a year revenue

1MW plant cost @ US$ 1m= 50 MW = US$ 50m
US$ 100m revenue a year revenue
40% JV share revenue US$40m
40% JV Share cost US$???
40% JV share AFC to put US$20m

101 cell FC yet to be proven produces 240kw
50MW = equivalent 200 units
First phase of 5MW to be operational by end of 2016 (subject to permitting)

Second phase of 45MW forecast to be operational by end of 2019 (subject to permitting)

Has anyone looked at the JV partner credentials?
Did Roman buy in the post RNS rush?
would he have known of the JV?

How much does a Press release cost?
I think Bond is off the rails, the two partners are not up to this; Eng contractor with $230m contratcs, Gas co specialist in Co2.

Answers on a post card please

[norbus] 15/3/2015 10:34

robo175
people paid more than 50p for AFC; Great to ride up a pump; it's coming down the other side that hurts; Bond waves a majic wand and hey presto; Nirvana

tidy2
who is jak? I have neither bought nor sold a share in AFC; I detect a smell as I had sniffed about ACTA.

[ride the wave] 15/3/2015 09:51

This has so much milage it's frightening IMO .

Next week will be fun !