Adriatic started its life as a Zinc/Lead mine with good levels of Silver as a by-product.
Given the improvement in silver prices and outlook for future prices, it is now a good quality silver mine with substantial Zinc/lead by products. |
Top up time! |
And now Laura weighs in with a purchase. |
Noted Troc
Would be good to logon here pre opening and get your take on any moves on the ASX |
Phillis - I trade on the ASX. Opened at 3.98, not quite down to the offer price of 3.90 (and my buy order price), and rapidly moved to above 4.30. An indication that the market likes the deal. I missed the opportunity of buying below 4, but I'm still a substantial shareholder and happy to continue holding |
Seems we're in good company today, Phillis.
First the CFO adds to his earlier purchase and now the chairman has chipped in. |
My 5k cost me 200.35😜 |
I wasn't quick enough off the mark, Phillis! Paid 202.61 for a top up.
But, as you say, if the CFO is happy to pay 2.02, who am I to quibble! |
Troc - a bit of a quibble don’t you think
You could have bought below £2 first thing
Follow the lead of the CFO |
Pity they did not offer the small retail investor the option to buy in at 3.90. However, in general, the share price often drops to the fundraising price allowing retail investors the chance to buy at similar prices. We'll see with ADT whether the price does drop, as it has real momentum behind it with the rising silver price. I'm just disappointed that they are not able to finance the plant expansion using cash flow or even debt. I hate seeing equity dilution as it nearly always favours the institutions. |
Indeed, Phillis.
A modest increase in market cap of 6% in order to increase production by 63% seems to me to be a great deal and, as you say, at a low discount.
The following extract caught my eye:-
"This 63% expansion in the Vares Processing Plant nameplate capacity to 1.3Mtpa, coupled with increased mine production, is expected to pave the way for the Company to produce over 20Moz AgEq2,3 per annum which would position the Vares Silver Operation among the largest primary-silver producers globally".
AISC of $9/$10 per oz, Ag price of $32.5/oz, production 20 million oz = $460 million/annum.
Gulp! No wonder they had no difficulty raising the capital at such a low discount.
The fact that Paul Cronin is participating should finally dispel any lingering doubts surrounding his departure. |
Hmm!
Small discount and the right thing to do
No doubt the short term cash availability will also be helpful (:-) |
Tick-Tock - going to realise silver is going to limit up soon |
Profits if they hit 12.5moz eq of approx $200m in 2025 at current metal prices. This would allow them to pay off all debts by end of this year and be cash positive.
Then profits of $225m in 2026 and rising above $300m as production expands through to 1.3mtpa by 2029.
Pity about the weather and crusher delays but still holding. |
Indeed, Troc.
Management seem to be positive on several fronts despite the weather events.
AgEq AISC of $9/$10 per oz against current price of $30.5 is the sort of margin to inspire long term confidence and allay any short term anxieties.
With the Au/Ag ratio of 90 sitting at the top of the long term curve, they should be assured, at a minimum, of a steady price. Hopefully, a rising one. |
Just listened to Q4 presentation.Management still very positive even though missed 2024 guidance due to flooding in oct and heavy snow in late 2024 and thus lowered 2025 guidance as full commissioning is slightly delayed.However grades better than dfs and ore recoveries on track. Will be cash positive by end 2025 after paying down approx 80m in debt. No other major issues to report other than teething problems (e.g wet ore slowing processing).This company is going to be highly profitable from 2026! Particularly if the silver price goes up as expected. Happy to continue holding. |
2024 2025 2026
Turnover 34.5 360.6 379.4
EBITDA -35.57 239.6 256.4
EBIT -34.01 214.6 233.4
Pre-tax profit -41.12 202.0 226.6
Post-tax profit 142.8 197.9 199.1
EPS (¢) -13.53 61.3 62.5 |
Does anyone have forecasts for 2025? The company provides target prices. Stockopedia is not helpful. |
That would seem likely.
Last year the Q4 activities report came out on the 31st Jan. so little more than a week should confirm it. |
Commercial production due to be announced shortly. |
Another box ticked towards cash flow |
Shorts getting squeezed. Silver and Gold moving higher. |
180-185p in the New Year??? |
Price of silver has gone below support level of 29.45 dollars..it's significant in terms of lower revenues. |
Short calls at 190-195p |
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