2024 2025 2026
Turnover 34.5 360.6 379.4
EBITDA -35.57 239.6 256.4
EBIT -34.01 214.6 233.4
Pre-tax profit -41.12 202.0 226.6
Post-tax profit 142.8 197.9 199.1
EPS (¢) -13.53 61.3 62.5 |
Does anyone have forecasts for 2025? The company provides target prices. Stockopedia is not helpful. |
That would seem likely.
Last year the Q4 activities report came out on the 31st Jan. so little more than a week should confirm it. |
Commercial production due to be announced shortly. |
Another box ticked towards cash flow |
Shorts getting squeezed. Silver and Gold moving higher. |
180-185p in the New Year??? |
Price of silver has gone below support level of 29.45 dollars..it's significant in terms of lower revenues. |
Short calls at 190-195p |
RBC has 295p target. A break above 220p would be significant on the charts. |
Finance
'The Company ended November with $23m cash and approximately $8m in receivables and concentrate inventory.
Orion has agreed to reschedule the first quarterly debt repayment of approximately $19m from 31 December 2024 to 31 March 2025, with nine quarterly repayments thereafter.
Adriatic has also signed a term sheet for a $25m concentrate prepayment arrangement with Trafigura, an existing offtaker, at competitive terms and a lower interest rate than the Orion facility. The prepayment includes the delivery of zinc and lead-silver concentrates at market prices over a 12-month period. The prepaid amount is unsecured, includes a 3-month grace period and will be paid down in line with deliveries over the final nine months of the arrangement.'
Continued.
Recommend reading total financing piece.
imo |
 'Rupice Mine is operating from two active stopes, with the second stoping level entering production in early December.
· Vares Processing Plant is operating 24/7 and recoveries are steadily improving.
· Total ore mined in 2024 to the end of November reached 129,194 tonnes ('t'), with approximately 40,000t expected in December.
· Guidance for 2025 remains unchanged at 750,000 - 800,000t of ore mined.
· Commercial production expected to be achieved in December and continue into January 2025.
· Construction of the Veovaca Tailings Storage Facility ('Veovaca TSF') is progressing well, with first tailings disposal to take place in January 2025 with no impact on production.
· OMF Fund III [F] Ltd ('Orion') has agreed to reschedule the first quarterly debt repayment of approximately $19m from 31 December 2024 to 31 March 2025.
· Adriatic has signed a term sheet for a $25m concentrate prepayment arrangement with Trafigura at competitive terms and expects to close the transaction by year end.
· As at 30 November 2024, Adriatic held a cash balance of $23m and approximately $8m in receivables and concentrate inventory.'
Sounds good to me. |
Increase by the looks of it.
I imagine they see it as fairly stable to trade.
BWDIK? |
So vulnerable to a takeover. |
Pleased with that. |
Life in this silver miner yet I see! |
Oh good.
This ought to help drive us higher. |
IRR on the project is 111% according to the last presentation. So much upside. |
Well all in costs for next year were quoted in the last presentation at less than $10m a month so $120m.
At an ASIC of $9oz eq (allowing for inflation) that is 13m oz eq produced which at 750kT is 17oz/t or 550g/t so agrees with overall figures for head and stock grades.
So I'm confident my figures are good. |
mwv
Presumably the other metals are accounted for in the DFS AISC figure of $7.3/oz for AgEquivalent.
To not take this into account would be to double count the other metals.
However, if you're right and I'm wrong I shall double my investment.
Here's hoping!! |
The head grades and stockpile grades quoted in the last update had silver contents of 292g/t and 302g/t respectively but the ag eq for the ores works out at 810g/t and 641g/t.
At these levels will be receiving over $550 per tonne which is over $400m for 750kT next year.
This is all dependent on the plant recovery currently running at approx 70% whereas the ag eq figures build in recoveries of between 64% for gold to 89% for silver and playability of between 77% for gold and 88% for silver.
So FCF of $250 to $300 is best guess for next year. |
Your figures are good for silver average of 187g/T but there is also 5.2% zn, 3.3% pb, 1.4 g/T au and 0.5% cu. Silver will be less than 40% of the revenue 5moz of silver plus 10m eq oz for the rest. |
mwv1
I'm not sure where you are getting the figure 15m oz equivalent from.
I have a figure of 4.7m oz as calculated above. |
TSF approval confirmed.
Next year they will produce 15m ozs equivalent at a sales price of $30 per eq oz based on current metal prices. So revenue of $450m. Costs will be less than $10m a month including exploration according to latest video presentation.
Free cash flow of in excess of $300m will drive the share price |
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