Tick-Tock - going to realise silver is going to limit up soon |
Profits if they hit 12.5moz eq of approx $200m in 2025 at current metal prices. This would allow them to pay off all debts by end of this year and be cash positive.
Then profits of $225m in 2026 and rising above $300m as production expands through to 1.3mtpa by 2029.
Pity about the weather and crusher delays but still holding. |
Indeed, Troc.
Management seem to be positive on several fronts despite the weather events.
AgEq AISC of $9/$10 per oz against current price of $30.5 is the sort of margin to inspire long term confidence and allay any short term anxieties.
With the Au/Ag ratio of 90 sitting at the top of the long term curve, they should be assured, at a minimum, of a steady price. Hopefully, a rising one. |
Just listened to Q4 presentation.Management still very positive even though missed 2024 guidance due to flooding in oct and heavy snow in late 2024 and thus lowered 2025 guidance as full commissioning is slightly delayed.However grades better than dfs and ore recoveries on track. Will be cash positive by end 2025 after paying down approx 80m in debt. No other major issues to report other than teething problems (e.g wet ore slowing processing).This company is going to be highly profitable from 2026! Particularly if the silver price goes up as expected. Happy to continue holding. |
2024 2025 2026
Turnover 34.5 360.6 379.4 EBITDA -35.57 239.6 256.4 EBIT -34.01 214.6 233.4 Pre-tax profit -41.12 202.0 226.6 Post-tax profit 142.8 197.9 199.1 EPS (¢) -13.53 61.3 62.5 |
Does anyone have forecasts for 2025? The company provides target prices. Stockopedia is not helpful. |
That would seem likely.
Last year the Q4 activities report came out on the 31st Jan. so little more than a week should confirm it. |
Commercial production due to be announced shortly. |
Another box ticked towards cash flow |
Shorts getting squeezed. Silver and Gold moving higher. |
180-185p in the New Year??? |
Price of silver has gone below support level of 29.45 dollars..it's significant in terms of lower revenues. |
Short calls at 190-195p |
RBC has 295p target. A break above 220p would be significant on the charts. |
Finance
'The Company ended November with $23m cash and approximately $8m in receivables and concentrate inventory.
Orion has agreed to reschedule the first quarterly debt repayment of approximately $19m from 31 December 2024 to 31 March 2025, with nine quarterly repayments thereafter.
Adriatic has also signed a term sheet for a $25m concentrate prepayment arrangement with Trafigura, an existing offtaker, at competitive terms and a lower interest rate than the Orion facility. The prepayment includes the delivery of zinc and lead-silver concentrates at market prices over a 12-month period. The prepaid amount is unsecured, includes a 3-month grace period and will be paid down in line with deliveries over the final nine months of the arrangement.'
Continued. Recommend reading total financing piece.
imo |
 'Rupice Mine is operating from two active stopes, with the second stoping level entering production in early December.
· Vares Processing Plant is operating 24/7 and recoveries are steadily improving.
· Total ore mined in 2024 to the end of November reached 129,194 tonnes ('t'), with approximately 40,000t expected in December.
· Guidance for 2025 remains unchanged at 750,000 - 800,000t of ore mined.
· Commercial production expected to be achieved in December and continue into January 2025.
· Construction of the Veovaca Tailings Storage Facility ('Veovaca TSF') is progressing well, with first tailings disposal to take place in January 2025 with no impact on production.
· OMF Fund III [F] Ltd ('Orion') has agreed to reschedule the first quarterly debt repayment of approximately $19m from 31 December 2024 to 31 March 2025.
· Adriatic has signed a term sheet for a $25m concentrate prepayment arrangement with Trafigura at competitive terms and expects to close the transaction by year end.
· As at 30 November 2024, Adriatic held a cash balance of $23m and approximately $8m in receivables and concentrate inventory.'
Sounds good to me. |
Increase by the looks of it.
I imagine they see it as fairly stable to trade.
BWDIK? |
So vulnerable to a takeover. |
Pleased with that. |
Life in this silver miner yet I see! |
Oh good. This ought to help drive us higher. |
IRR on the project is 111% according to the last presentation. So much upside. |
Well all in costs for next year were quoted in the last presentation at less than $10m a month so $120m. At an ASIC of $9oz eq (allowing for inflation) that is 13m oz eq produced which at 750kT is 17oz/t or 550g/t so agrees with overall figures for head and stock grades. So I'm confident my figures are good. |
mwv
Presumably the other metals are accounted for in the DFS AISC figure of $7.3/oz for AgEquivalent.
To not take this into account would be to double count the other metals.
However, if you're right and I'm wrong I shall double my investment.
Here's hoping!! |