Adriatic Metals Share Discussion Threads

[saracen3] 12/12/2024 09:08

RBC has 295p target. A break above 220p would be significant on the charts.

[hazl] 12/12/2024 07:15

Finance

'The Company ended November with $23m cash and approximately $8m in receivables and concentrate inventory.



Orion has agreed to reschedule the first quarterly debt repayment of approximately $19m from 31 December 2024 to 31 March 2025, with nine quarterly repayments thereafter.



Adriatic has also signed a term sheet for a $25m concentrate prepayment arrangement with Trafigura, an existing offtaker, at competitive terms and a lower interest rate than the Orion facility. The prepayment includes the delivery of zinc and lead-silver concentrates at market prices over a 12-month period. The prepaid amount is unsecured, includes a 3-month grace period and will be paid down in line with deliveries over the final nine months of the arrangement.'

Continued.
Recommend reading total financing piece.

imo

[hazl] 12/12/2024 07:14

'Rupice Mine is operating from two active stopes, with the second stoping level entering production in early December.

· Vares Processing Plant is operating 24/7 and recoveries are steadily improving.

· Total ore mined in 2024 to the end of November reached 129,194 tonnes ('t'), with approximately 40,000t expected in December.

· Guidance for 2025 remains unchanged at 750,000 - 800,000t of ore mined.

· Commercial production expected to be achieved in December and continue into January 2025.

· Construction of the Veovaca Tailings Storage Facility ('Veovaca TSF') is progressing well, with first tailings disposal to take place in January 2025 with no impact on production.

· OMF Fund III [F] Ltd ('Orion') has agreed to reschedule the first quarterly debt repayment of approximately $19m from 31 December 2024 to 31 March 2025.

· Adriatic has signed a term sheet for a $25m concentrate prepayment arrangement with Trafigura at competitive terms and expects to close the transaction by year end.

· As at 30 November 2024, Adriatic held a cash balance of $23m and approximately $8m in receivables and concentrate inventory.'

Sounds good to me.

[hazl] 11/12/2024 08:56

Increase by the looks of it.

I imagine they see it as fairly stable to trade.

BWDIK?

[saracen3] 17/11/2024 17:17

So vulnerable to a takeover.

[hazl] 15/11/2024 17:42

Pleased with that.

[hazl] 15/11/2024 08:32

Life in this silver miner yet I see!

[hazl] 06/11/2024 07:50

Oh good.
This ought to help drive us higher.

[saracen3] 26/10/2024 16:27

IRR on the project is 111% according to the last presentation. So much upside.

[mwv1] 25/10/2024 09:41

Well all in costs for next year were quoted in the last presentation at less than $10m a month so $120m.
At an ASIC of $9oz eq (allowing for inflation) that is 13m oz eq produced which at 750kT is 17oz/t or 550g/t so agrees with overall figures for head and stock grades.
So I'm confident my figures are good.

[theapiarist] 25/10/2024 09:02

mwv

Presumably the other metals are accounted for in the DFS AISC figure of $7.3/oz for AgEquivalent.

To not take this into account would be to double count the other metals.

However, if you're right and I'm wrong I shall double my investment.

Here's hoping!!

[mwv1] 25/10/2024 08:33

The head grades and stockpile grades quoted in the last update had silver contents of 292g/t and 302g/t respectively but the ag eq for the ores works out at 810g/t and 641g/t.
At these levels will be receiving over $550 per tonne which is over $400m for 750kT next year.

This is all dependent on the plant recovery currently running at approx 70% whereas the ag eq figures build in recoveries of between 64% for gold to 89% for silver and playability of between 77% for gold and 88% for silver.

So FCF of $250 to $300 is best guess for next year.

[mwv1] 25/10/2024 08:17

Your figures are good for silver average of 187g/T but there is also 5.2% zn, 3.3% pb, 1.4 g/T au and 0.5% cu. Silver will be less than 40% of the revenue 5moz of silver plus 10m eq oz for the rest.

[theapiarist] 25/10/2024 07:58

mwv1

I'm not sure where you are getting the figure 15m oz equivalent from.

I have a figure of 4.7m oz as calculated above.

[mwv1] 25/10/2024 06:46

TSF approval confirmed.

Next year they will produce 15m ozs equivalent at a sales price of $30 per eq oz based on current metal prices. So revenue of $450m. Costs will be less than $10m a month including exploration according to latest video presentation.
Free cash flow of in excess of $300m will drive the share price

[hazl] 25/10/2024 06:45

Adriatic Metals PLC ("Adriatic" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that all the permits for Phase I of the Veovaca Tailings Storage Facility ('Veovaca TSF') have been received from the Federal Ministry of Energy, Mining, and Industry ('FMERI') of Bosnia and Herzegovina on 24 October.



This follows the Constitutional Court decision regarding access to state forestry land in July 2024, which curtailed development plans for previously permitted TSF. Adriatic subsequently identified an alternative location for tailings storage at the former Veovaca open pit, which is located approximately 2km from the Vares Processing Plant. The Veovaca TSF does not involve the use of state forestry lands and the Company owns the surface rights.

[theapiarist] 24/10/2024 16:56

Trader

Ignoring your tasteless remarks regarding the CEO, lets have a look at some of the funnymentals.

Firstly, I’m not sure how you define “commercial production” but, provided the tailings issue is sorted, the Rupice mine may reach nameplate capacity of 800,000 tonne/pa in this quarter.

Assuming 90% recovery, Ag production = 800000 x 187 x 0.035 x 0.9 = 4.712 million ounces pa

The silver equivalent AISC according to the DFS is $7.3/oz. Being conservative let's say $10.

Therefore today's margin = $23.5/ounce of Ag.

Producing free cash flow = $110 million/annum

That’s good enough to keep me invested.

[hazl] 22/10/2024 14:24

Interesting they have us as a strong buy....scroll down on the right.
And Richard Hatch covers here and that bodes well, in my opinion!


I believe it has increased the target now.
260?


IMO

[aim999] 22/10/2024 13:34

ADT for me in this silver environment.....go,go,silver

[hazl] 21/10/2024 07:18

Silver says it for me.

[saracen3] 21/10/2024 06:36

Closed up 6% in Australia overnight.

[saracen3] 20/10/2024 10:44

Higher silver price means debt can be repaid earlier
Watch out for higher close in Australia overnight

[saracen3] 18/10/2024 20:35

Silver up 6% today. Huge for Adriatic.