Adams Share Discussion Threads

[par12] 23/2/2007 16:25

Come on bridgewell PUSH the bid

[nilip] 23/2/2007 16:08

Katy,
I think pantomine is a very appropriate term :-).

sn, your valuation cannot be wrong, after all, cash is cash.


The balance sheet should pretty much show exactly what has already said. Value of assets will be shown but then we already know what they've been sold for.
Cash will be confirmed. The finals may in fact be academic, but to provide ammunition for the large holders to confront at the EGM. Net result should still remain such that the mgmt is ousted and the cash returned to share holders now and not in 12 mths time.

[katylied] 23/2/2007 15:42

SuperN - I agree, the latter scenario is a serious worry. You would really need to trust management for that one, and who does? Unfortunately, all too often the 'opposition' vote at EGMs fails to materialise. Maybe the fund-managers do not want to be seen to be making waves. It is afterall, rarely their own money they have lost. However, having said that, there have already been so many twists and turns in this pantomime, it may be unwise to assume it is all over yet. What ADA need to do now, is get the Finals out, so shareholders can see the balance-sheet. They surely cannot expect to hold this planned EGM without those finals...

[supernumerary] 23/2/2007 15:08

eenmakkie - you forgot the kitchen sink, lol

par12 - I should ease up on those drugs if I were you

Katy - I agree that no deal can be done on the open market - the fund managers have to be tied up first. They however cannot be looking to the long term here, since there isn't one - their concern must surely be to get as much money out as safely and quickly as possible. Thus either they take an offer a bit above market price and walk away with cash in hand; or they wait for the egm and close the company down, distributing whatever is left; or they throw themselves on the tender mercies of the ada management and allow them to dispose of the money as they see fit.

That the price hasn't risen implies that the market thinks the last scenario is much the most probable and that even then the price will not rise to the value of its cash. This seems so unlikely to me I can't help thinking that either there's another scenario I've missed or that my valuation is a long way out.

[2lb] 23/2/2007 15:01

Can't be that many left in free float - most of them seem to have ammassed in my drawer.....

[nilip] 23/2/2007 14:59

PAR12,

Any shorts, if there were any, would have been closed on initial t/o speculation months ago.

[par12] 23/2/2007 14:32

Katy those hedge funds shorted this one from 110p why close when you know the worst close will be 39p;

[katylied] 23/2/2007 13:17

SuperN - ...that does clarify the holdings although it still doesn't really address the question of why a hedge fund isn't buying the cash cheaply...

There is only a relatively small free-float. Much of that must now be in the hands of speculators who bought post the profit warning. So, if a Hedge-Fund wanted to pick up a useful block of shares (with voting influence), they would probably have limited success (at the current price) in the open market. They would therefore have to approach the major holders. They may have, but would any of those majors sell at the current market-price?...

[nilip] 23/2/2007 11:17

sn,

I can't fault your logic - what's there to fault :-).

The simple fact that we as mere RI's are looking at the thought of getting the cash into our pockets, believe me, the large holders will be seething at this proposition and will be thinking exactly the same.

I just simply cannot see the proposition by the company materialising.

The EGM will reveal all.

Fund managers will vote to oust the board and return the cash to share holders.

In fact, the more I think about it, the more I see this as a no lose scenario.

I would expect to get a minimum 30% return from the current price - it's better than putting my money in a BS ... in the mean time the $27 mln cash pile should be growing as it collates interest minus minimal costs (ie. salaries - which won't be for long imo).

[eenmakkie] 23/2/2007 10:31

Yes, that is what I was thinking my self, ADA has already the votes in pocket to pass this deal.
And maybe Philips has already an idea where to put all that cash to work.
THE DEAL:
Mobixell gets ADA business for peanuts, 5m$,
Phillips gets the control over all the cash to invest in one of there companies that needs the cash. (They have seen Emblaze already doing this trick)

Sorry guys but wanted also to let you push the price up to get out.
But think it is dead money for a wile and with all the uncertainty.
21,600,000$ cash exivalents
5,500,000$ coming in from the deal
-550,000$ in escrow
-3,819,000$ in liabilities: Employees and payroll accruals,SEVERANCE PAY LIABILITY , Accrued expenses and other liabilities
---------------
22,731,000$
-1,000,000$ in bonuses to Orna Berry and the other ex.CEO for "good" performances
-1,000,000$ of expences over 12 month period, trading AIM and finaly delisting..
+1,086,550$ 5% intrest over a year.
-----------------
21,817,550$

over 35,546,636 outstanding shares makes 0,313£ per share(exchange rate 1,96$/£)
Hope that the spread will be 0,28-0,31£ in April
Sensastream 1mil$ in shares makes 1,759,324 new shares + some more options we gave to Orna on the EGM of 19 January07 makes 2,5 mil newly isued shares.

total 38046636 shares outstanding makes 0,2925£ cash per share
It still makes a 11% premium if you can buy at 26p BUT very lousy with all the uncertainty of the FSA investigation and (the new investment of the money)

But selling at 23p makes 21% difference and very SPUPID to sell at these prices.

You will not find a better investment for that money if you know that there is a 70% change to earn 21%profit and 15% change to earn even more on a years time.
With a 15% change to lose some if Phillips reinvest the money badly.
And the cash protection (for the moment)

Those damn MM' again, they always earn on our pain

[supernumerary] 23/2/2007 10:27

Katy – thanks – that does clarify the holdings although it still doesn't really address the question of why a hedge fund isn't buying the cash cheaply.

nilip – the fact that there are other holdings surely makes it all the easier for someone to mount a bid? After a couple of dozen phone calls he would know exactly what price he would have to pay for what acceptance level. Far better than trying to deal with thousands of PIs.

I can't see why the institutions would hang out for a better deal if an offer did come in – it's obvious ada isn't going to give it to them – once the Mobixell deal has gone through it's just a cash shell with a punt on the investment skills of the current management – not an appealing proposition to my mind. Odds improved by the presence of the Philips director, and Orna Berry doesn't have the historical baggage, but still a gamble. To take it (given a choice) an FM would have to believe they were better at investing his money than he was.

As you say, the price is too tempting to ignore – the profit should have been arbitraged away by now and it's not...

[the crypt] 23/2/2007 10:24

oh kat you are so funny -- Tierra del Fuego

[nilip] 23/2/2007 09:59

Bear in mind, there are many other significant institutional/fund holders besides Merrils:

MLIM 7,200,000
Lehman Brothers as principal 5,575,000
Scottish Widows 3,449,561
SG Asset Management 2,614,267
Bradshaw Asset Management 2,270,000
F&C Asset Management 1,810,900
Royal London Asset Management 1,323,000
Victory Capital 1,187,273
Gartmore Investment 1,095,414
Morley Fund Management 1,068,182


(BTW, I use to work for Merrils so I have an aversion to their holdings anyway, but the ADA share price at such a high discount to cash of 39p / share is just too cheap to ignore :-)

[the crypt] 23/2/2007 09:45

o so, the big lols just commenced at 9.07 when the friedliedkat came along!

[katylied] 23/2/2007 09:07

SuperN, the Merrill Lynch holding is in fact the Philip's holding. It is a pension-fund investment that Philips turned over MLIM to manage. The new non-exec director is ex-Philips. When previously at ADA, he was the designated Philips representative on the board. However, he left ADA because the division of Philips that he came from, was spun off as a seperate company last year. Nevertheless, it seems probable that his return has been required by Philips and hopefully to the benefit of shareholders in general...

[supernumerary] 23/2/2007 09:01

pilein - I know why you're buying and have known since I bought myself. Your conviction however is impressive - did you buy all of the £8Ksworth of shares the MMs sold yesterday?

What I don't know, however, and clearly you don't either, is why nobody else is buying, hence my question.

[the crypt] 23/2/2007 08:15

Actualy - i'll ave a sausage! please and a fried egg!!!

[the crypt] 23/2/2007 08:14

lol- gimmme more cheddar cheeese!!!!!!!! cheeeeeeeeese pleeeeeaaaase!

[the crypt] 23/2/2007 08:10

oh let the small ponces sell their tiny holdings and lets be gone with them. They make me sick antway!!!!

These should bwe 37.67p each.

Let thew mugs get out and the shrewders buy up......lol lol

[the crypt] 23/2/2007 08:05

Oh let the cheese consume the day!!!

[the crypt] 23/2/2007 08:03

time to munch on some English Cheddar Cheese! Oh Yikes!

[par12] 23/2/2007 07:03

It has to be a bargin its crazy at this price, time to average down

[nilip] 23/2/2007 01:55

Supernanny,

You're not missing anything.

Why do you think I'm buying at this price :-)

[scburbs] 23/2/2007 00:06

Nickcduk, But it is understandable that Orna is busy as she has a growing business to manage. Oh, on my mistake she has no business to manage at all, but I have heard she needs to spend a lot of time reviewing the best buy lists to ensure she gets a good rate for a cash deposit account. Those services are clearly worth hundreds of thousands p.a. and no wonder she is too busy to talk to investors.

nickcduk - 22 Feb'07 - 18:51 - 394 of 399

I rang up Orna Berry today to put my view across but her secretary said she was likely to be busy all day in meetings. I guess im not likely to hear from her tommorrow and Monday is more likely than Sunday. When I get to chat to her I will point out how much of a premium the market is putting on their management skills. I shall ask them to do the decent thing but I don't imagine the Israeli's have a word for decent so it will probably fall on deaf ears. Ill then contact Jailendra and the non execs and put forward my views to them as well.