Active Energy Share Discussion Threads

[2prsimo] 29/1/2018 15:22

mm's picking up a few cheap one's today and it takes a bit of heat out of the chart

[garth] 28/1/2018 18:10

I certainly wouldn't be out of them right now.

G.

[maverick247] 28/1/2018 13:49

Exactly historic investors have had a hard run but things seem to be coming to a head so think cup half full not emptySpinks throwing in 500k now 2 years earlier than he needed to says it all

[drmaccers] 28/1/2018 11:49

Fair points GarthI feel/think that the long wait for CoalSwitch to become commercial is now at an end. This is the inflection point we've waited for

[garth] 28/1/2018 10:49

I think the comments of Christoukid are understandable. Having been here four years I have been a bit fed up with things seemingly moving forwards, only to stall. I have been here before with a number of companies I have invested in. It often takes much longer than you think. But then I bought GHH at 67.5p, Some CRPR at just over 26p. REALLY REALLY wish I had held on to more of them for longer - being patient, trusting my instinct.

I believe that if AEG get it right and can secure the licences to the assets then DrM is also not far out in terms of the potential here. That is why even after 4 years, even carrying great empathy with Christoukid's comments, this is one of my largest holdings and one that I have continued to add to on the dips.

Investing is about risk vs reward, downside vs upside multiples. I reckon this is has a better than evens chance of making it and if it makes it it will be multiples of the current price. That makes it a no-brainer for me personally, but people need to invest time in their own research. I looked at Labrador and was initially concerned about access based on what I could find on line. My understanding is that dock developments are being made that remove my concerns. Research...

If you load up the 5 year chart and track the 2014 pre-spike trend in the share price, extrapolating that to the present you will find my short term target. That trend was tracking the developments at that time. Issued share capital has increased in the intervening period, but progress has continued and the number of developments has increased. In my view, and it is just a view, they have kept broadly in step. The share price was stuck in the 2p-3p range on the disappointment and fear that is expressed by Christoukid - I know, I felt it myself. But that range priced in too much fear, IMO.

This business is good for isolated communities and good for the environment - which also disproportionately impacts remote and disadvantaged communities. I am happy to be invested it. I think it will catch fire. I am going to stay in it even if it takes a while - because I think it is worthwhile.

G.

[2prsimo] 27/1/2018 20:02

Waits over two years before posting something on advfn and then tries to deramp - very fishy indeed

[drmaccers] 27/1/2018 19:11

You claim to be invested but that's nonsense I never said tomorrow and I bet you any money the Metis deal isn't "dead"DM me on Twitter and we can have a side bet

[christoukid] 27/1/2018 18:50

All sounds great. I totally am with you on the potential but this is not going to all happen "all in the not too distant future". this is further down the line. I remember reading some posts from a chap on another forum, who had real local knowledge - we will have to construct 100km of access roads, is that correct? In the short term we do not have the capacity to produce the figures that could be demanded. How long did it take to construct one plant and the output of this is relatively small. Just saying this is more of a slow burn and in the fullness of time. Its not just going to happen tomorrow like you predict and as for the Metis deal, what do you think is going to happen exactly - this is dead, i wish it were not the case - RGS said "watch this space" hmmm, I just think he is the eternal optimist! But hey would love to be proved wrong. Anyhow thats all for me - out this evening. heres living i hope. Best

[drmaccers] 27/1/2018 18:28

So to recap why i think we'll get to 30p+ in the not too distant future... The business is in 2 parts. Timberlands gets the feed stock for ABS to sell the CoalSwitch pellets. Timberlands is securing feedstock from all over the world. The two main deals will be the Metis deal in Alberta, previously calculated at $300mill and the x10 larger crown timber license in Newfoundland and Lab. Both are imminent and i believe the Metis may well be better than the previous one... Once AEG have the feedstock they make Coalswitch and sell if for $140-180/tonne. The first customer is Hunter power station in Utah, who use 4.5mill tonnes of Coal a year. If they blend 20% CS with 80% coal then thats 900k tonnes gaining revs of $126-162mill. 15% profit is $18.9-24mill. Thats one power station in one country AEG are working with a $20bill fund called Benefit Street Partners who will bankroll any number of Coalswitch plants anywhere in the world to meet demand. Say we get a contract for 4-5 power stations at just 20% coalswitch then we are looking at $100mill profits plus. If they want 100% coalswitch then its $400-500mill! PE of 10? lol Not hard to see how/why my very conservative initial target of 30p will be hit with confirmation that these milestones are happening.

[drmaccers] 27/1/2018 18:25

They are selling the first batch of coalswitch to Hunter power station as we speak and they did a placement before xmas. AND RS put £500k into the company

[christoukid] 27/1/2018 18:19

thats right you have done research and you are heavily invested! protecting your investment clearly from any differing view. Ok tell me this, how long can AEG continue trading without investment? Do we have any income? Do we have any cash in the bank?
Ukraine was always volatile - that didn't stop us building up the business both before and after the invasion. All i am saying is you do have to question the flightiness of some of the decisions. I want the CS deals to come off of course I do, and I am rooting for the Newfoundland deal - i am just aware of how we got burnt on the Metis deal. Lawsuits are never a good thing. All I am saying is that the clock is ticking - and we do need something to stick for a change and enough with the jam tomorrow!!

[saw89] 27/1/2018 18:04

No, you're being misleading and you have no right to do that. Ramping? Information is being shared and people are getting enthusiastic for a variety of reasons. All the information is contained within recent RNSs. People who cannot be bothered to read them don't deserve to do well from investments. People who try and talk a company down to get a cheaper entry point, even less so.

[christoukid] 27/1/2018 17:59

I have been in for three years - so qualified to state it. I am not saying that this does not have potential, but there has been no balance over the last week and nothing but blue sky ramping by those on twitter ramping and that is how people get spiked and lose money.
Anything i have said can be backed up by the RNS over the last few years. Monday will be interesting as all the profit takers come back. When there is concrete news I will be back in, right now too volatile. Sorry if won't just join the ramping with the rest.

[saw89] 27/1/2018 17:52

You need to read all RNS's properly before writing misleading posts such as that.

[christoukid] 27/1/2018 17:28

Truth is we do not know how long this deal will take. AEG said it was agreed in principle in May 2017 and at that time the idea projected was to commercialise the forestry asset via logging and timber management. Now all of a sudden its all about coal switch. What is alarming is the apparent change in direction.

We did have this with the Metis deal, were it was always jam tomorrow and that dragged on for 1.5 years before fizzling out.

Then there was the wood chip business in Ukraine - again millions was spent buying machinery only for this to be dropped. There was all the rhetoric of being very competitive and then all of a sudden this was dumped after 2 years of build up.


There does come a point where you have to stop living on potential and look at the facts. We own nothing and produce nothing. Is there any cash in the business right now, thats what i want to know - and if so how much longer can this continue before there is a further placing.

We have to be conscious of the fact that this business could go bust if there is not an injection of cash in the very near term and new investors who have piled in over the last few days would be wise to go over the history of this company. Lots of smoke but time for something concrete. I have sold half my holding over the last few days, may buy back when this comes back down to the mid 2s during the week.

All the best

[2prsimo] 27/1/2018 16:51

Indeed mav - you're not wrong - a lot of the companies I look at I'm in and out like a sour plum - not here, I've already made the decision not to trade this one, it's a keeper, so I'm just going to let it run and see where we end up. GLA.

[maverick247] 27/1/2018 15:15

Ive just read your blogs DrMaccer and have to say I'm stunned at the potential here. I bought some at 2.5p but will be averaging up now as if this comes off its a multi hundred million company in the makingThanks

[saw89] 27/1/2018 12:03

All dips were heavily bought into this week and it rose very smoothly so with this amount of demand for the stock i see it holding past 4p easily ST. Its quite rare to see such sustained intraday large round number intra-day buying over a few days.
On the Timberlands side of the business Crown Timber Licence is imminent as well as Metis. Either will trigger a big spike and rally.
In terms of Coalswitch side of business there is also first delivery in Utah soon and offtakes / letters of intent can come from US&C , Asia & Europe at any time. Just one will again trigger a big spike and rally

So in summary there is plenty going on to keep tension in the share price and many catalysts ahead to keep this rerating. I'm ready to buy a hefty chunk on any pullback and i expect many others will habe the same view too.

[drmaccers] 27/1/2018 10:43

I'll go ahead and disagree with you Dave Especially the months bit. They do take months if not years but that's been happening for the past couple of years. It's not like they've suddenly decided to try and get them now. It's all happening imminently

[davethechef] 27/1/2018 10:09

Difficult to say whuch direction the share price will take short term. I see it falling to maybe 3.5pish. News on possible offtakes, commercial interest from their presentation could take months to sign-off. The share price & present market capt maybe a bit 'frothy' now. However, ni denying the potential here if they gain those contracts. It'll take time though. It's certainly an interesting one.

[drmaccers] 26/1/2018 15:07

MMs walking it down to try and get shares. They'll let it run again before close up to 4.5+. Maybe end on day high?

[dave4545] 26/1/2018 14:54

Friday afternoon, sub 3p to 4.5p in a week bound to suffer with end of week profit takers closing to cash ahead of the weekend.

Cracking week though and still 90 mins left for a recovery later

[falia] 26/1/2018 14:16

here we go

[2prsimo] 26/1/2018 14:16

double post - hate it when that happens - sorry guys