Accsys Technologies Share Discussion Threads

[busraker1] 03/9/2007 10:14

Can we be sure what this agreement is saying - is it that there will be an actual licence announced for 500,000m3 in China within 12 months? (otherwise Scanfore loses the area exclusivity.)

[damanko] 03/9/2007 07:57

David Popejoy, Managing Director of Skanfore said: "The China market offers
exceptional potential. China currently consumes huge volumes of tropical
hardwood and despite vigorous economic growth, imported volumes of tropical
hardwood are already beginning to fall as availability reduces. Skanfore China
offers strategic benefits to the Chinese economy - as the use of AccoyaTM will
mainly be in substitution of environmentally insensitive tropical hardwood,
softwoods treated with toxic chemicals or uPVC and aluminium - in both cases
helping reduce the reliance on more energy intensive raw materials. Skanfore's
discussions with potential partners have rapidly led to conclude we must secure
maximum rights as a matter of urgency, hence we have now committed our entire
agency rights through our Chinese subsidiary and are in discussion with Titan
Wood to extend our commercial relationship with them."



The Company officially opened the world's first commercial production facility
manufacturing commercial volumes of AccoyaTM wood at its subsidiary in The
Netherlands in May.

[damanko] 03/9/2007 07:55

Accsys announces 500,000 m3 License Option Agreement for China.


Accsys Technologies PLC ("Accsys" or "the Company") announces that its 100%
owned subsidiary, Titan Wood Ltd., has signed a licence option agreement with
Skanfore China S.A. ("Skanfore China"), a subsidiary of Skanfore S.A.("Skanfore
"), in respect of rights to manufacture AccoyaTM in the People's Republic of
China for a nameplate capacity of 500,000 cubic metres of production of
AccoyaTM wood.

3rd September 2007

[diogenesj] 30/8/2007 14:20

Thanks, yes, those are the figures I can see, and I see they are in euros.

[power] 30/8/2007 14:19

For the purposes of our forecasts, we assume that four million new shares
are listed on Euronext (see below) effective at the end of the calendar year
at a price of €4.00 per share.
The Arnhem plant has a full order book until early 2008, although we would
stress that given the wide range of 'specials' and smaller batch runs, the
plant is not operating at full capacity, in spite of incurring the same level of
fixed and variable costs as it would have been had it been producing at
significantly higher volumes. We anticipate that 2008 sees a move towards
much greater production runs at Arnhem, followed by a doubling of plant
capacity by the start of the 2009/2010 financial year (this helps to explain
the step change in turnover and profitability from the plant in that year).
Using our mid-case forecasts, Accsys see a rapid build-up in turnover from
€29.8m in the year to March 2008 to €73.0m in March 2009 and €137.1m for
the year to March 2010. Throughout this period the Arnhem operations
account for around a third of revenue, with licensees and, latterly, production
royalties both showing significant growth alongside the increased capacity at
Arnhem. The high margin nature of these royalty based revenue streams
sees an increase in our projected EBIT margin from 22% in 2007/8 to 44%
in 2009/10.
In this scenario, CS EPS is forecast to be 4.8p for the current financial year,
rising by 140% to 11.5p for 2008/9 and by a similar percentage to 28.5p for
2009/10. One of the characteristics of the licensing and royalty model is its
cash generative nature. This is best reflected in our forecast dividend payout
ratio of over 70 per cent going forward. This leads to a 20p dividend for
2009/10. In spite of the high payout ratio, Accsys continues to accrue cash
on its balance sheet, with a forecast of net cash of €35.8m at March 2008,
rising to €58.2m by March 2010. This clearly gives the Group scope to either
fund other growth activities or return further cash to shareholders. As the
Group develops utility style recurring revenues from licensed operational
plants, there is no reason why it could not leverage its balance sheet for
efficiency purposes.
We are of the belief that a high margin royalty based business should
command a significant premium to the market. Our share price target of
€6.89 is based on a fully diluted multiple of 23 times 2009/10 earnings.

[power] 30/8/2007 14:17

Table 2: Licence agreement schedule
Licence Signings (Year to March)
Scenario 2008 2009 2010
Low Case 2 4 4
Mid Case 2 6 10
High Case 6 12 20

[power] 30/8/2007 14:16

Yr to Mar €m 2007A 2008E 2009E 2010E
Sales 0.1 29.8 73.0 137.1
EBITDA -8.7 7.8 25.8 63.4
adj. EPS (€) -6.65 4.56 11.01 27.03
EV/EBITDA (x) n.a. 68.4 20.6 8.1
P/E (x) n.a. 83.6 34.6 14.1
Div. Yld (%) 0.0 0.0 2.1 5.2
(numbers mid-case scenario)

[diogenesj] 30/8/2007 13:48

Hmm, could you give us the forecasts, power, making it clear whether they are in euros or sterling?

Assuming the forecast eps I can see (dated 3 August) from C Stewart are in euros, we are on a prospective PE of 130 for the current year, falling to 54 in 2009 and 22 in 2010. A good achievement by Axis, but it doesn't look all that attractive at the current price, bearing in mind that there is still some execution risk.

[power] 30/8/2007 12:57

. 􀂄 Huge Progress Since IPO
Accsys has proved to be a rare beast - a thematic concept stock which has
actually become a business with rapid sales growth and the prospect of
profitability in the current financial year. This progress has been borne out by
the share price performance of the Group, with a share price over four times
the level of the IPO price.
􀂄 The strategic high ground
As part of its development, Accsys has developed relationships with some
key industry partners. This has best been highlighted by both the strategic
supply arrangement with, and investment from, Celanese and the recent
announcement that Skanfore has signed an agreement relating to 500,000
cubic metres of capacity. Given progress in areas such as developing
financing packages for licensees and plant development, all the building
blocks are in place for the Group to successfully roll out its licensing model.
􀂄 Arnhem up and running
The Arnhem plant was formally opened in May but has been producing for
several months. Although not at optimal capacity utilisation, the plant is
producing commercial volumes for both customers and potential licensees
and has sold forward several months of capacity. Just as importantly, it
proves to potential licensees that the technology is commercially scalable.
􀂄 Numerous Attractions
Accsys remains a very attractive investment proposition. It has patented
technology that offers the prospect of transforming the wood industry, by
providing environmentally friendly product with superior performance
characteristics to existing competing technologies such as softwood,
hardwood and uPVC. The Group's high margin royalty based model is
starting to come to fruition and further news on the licence front is likely only
to further encourage investor interest. As our multiple forecast scenario
shows we believe that there is the scope for material out performance of our
base case earnings projections. We have revised our 18-month target price
6.89€

[damanko] 20/8/2007 09:18

More money in the kitty I suppose, more exposure in Europe. And more money for "certain shareholders" who look like offloading substantial stakes to facilitate this placing. Good word. Offloading......................

[asparks] 20/8/2007 08:47

what do folks think about the news (placing) today?

[gwr7] 17/8/2007 18:05

If you were a big producer of soft wood, would you pay someone else to pickle it for you? Or would you do it yourself?

[philjeans] 17/8/2007 17:32

LOL!

Good to have an experienced and diverse group of non execs on the board; but much more important to be able to sell pickled wood in vast quantities.

Mr Market's still confident but I believe the jury's still mulling it over.......

[busraker1] 17/8/2007 11:17

I think the fact this board is quiet and not ramped by PI's, but this is a stock with lots of Institution driven interest, has helped keep the price up and not attracted too many shorters looking to hunt down pi's. Let's keep it quiet!

[theo13] 16/8/2007 11:38

NS Number:1981C
Accsys Technologies PLC
16 August 2007


London, 16th August 2007 AiM: AXS


Accsys Technologies PLC (the "Company")

Notifiable Interest


The Company has received notification that Saad Investments Company Limited
('SICL') has increased its holding in the Company to a notifiable interest of
13,730,000 shares representing 9.23% of the issued share capital of the Company.



No need to comment really!!

[peebo] 16/8/2007 11:01

Hey Ba5hir, wonder why you've gone quiet?????
Hmmm, maybe because the share price is holding up well during this bloodbath????
I can't wait for the market to settle down, the price is sure to rocket.

[damanko] 06/8/2007 22:43

Gosh.

What an amazingly bright identity Ba5hir appears to be.

No earnings stuff.

No P/E stuff.

No yield stuff.

No growth stuff.

No comparison stuff

No competition stuff

Anyway, off to look up the (precise) definition of moron again.....

[diogenesj] 06/8/2007 13:12

That is true, of course, busraker - but when the general market is weak, the stocks which have risen most do tend to be hit hardest, as people try to nail down their profits.

[ba5hir is back] 06/8/2007 09:57

Red nearly every day exp[ect a major pull back soon.

[busraker1] 03/8/2007 15:46

The share price has not come down because of the company, it's because of the stock market - to state the obvious.

As for support Target Setter, anyone looking at the chart can see it is still intact at 350p.

[the big fella] 03/8/2007 15:21

I posted my concerns here about the market cap a couple of months ago but I was said to be "blinkered". I didn't hace the guts to short it as momentum was going against a short position at the time. Oh well.