Accesso Technology Share Discussion Threads

[tsmith2] 15/2/2019 08:53

I think we've had a large seller who has been cleared and paves for others to buy in. "why would they buy til the seller is done is what I was being told.."Clearly, if there's a seller and you know volume he wants to shift if you are an astute buyer, you'll just wait. and overhang has now been cleared

[tsmith2] 15/2/2019 08:50

I think what he basically said the fall in the share price on the day of TU was a massive over reaction to a decent update

[hazl] 15/2/2019 08:48

On the 6th it was 1400 1500....on the 7th about where we are now.
Fascinating.

[hazl] 15/2/2019 08:45

What date was ....Paul Scott's article for example ?
I think it was the seventh when the share price was higher I believe.

[tsmith2] 15/2/2019 08:43

Shorts please watch squeeze, it is coming..

[rivaldo] 15/2/2019 08:38

Nice £86,000 buy just now at 900p. There's lots of upside from here imho.

[tsmith2] 15/2/2019 08:27

expecting a very strong day here!

[hazl] 15/2/2019 08:06

Don't forget there were plenty likely to have bought last week thinking it was a bargain at this price and above so I think it's on the road to some sort of recovery now.
Just waiting for information from the company going forward.

[hazl] 15/2/2019 07:54

Don't humour you know who he'll be negative again as soon as he's got a packet in my opinion.

[shanklin] 15/2/2019 07:37

Spud

I guess it depends how many companies consider the IP to be of sufficient interest to bid for it and have the firepower to do so.

There must be a fair number of companies to which ACSO presents an existential threat, since they cannot replicate some of what ACSO do.

[smithie6] 15/2/2019 00:54

101011

vertical integration...ie. a park co. buying them...imo no way

Merlin or Six Flags would imo get no vital advantage that would justify spending 240-400M ( cap. value plus X%)

what does Merlin pay to Acso that theyd save if they owned Acso ...& paid the costs themselves with no profit %
1M$, 2M$, 3 ?

the acquisition cost would have a pay back of 100 years ....or 500 years, so its not attractive


aince theyd prob. lose half the value of Acso over first yr , losing many parks of other park chains as a consequence

imo anyway

[spud] 14/2/2019 18:27

£20 Bid would probably clinch it. spud

[hazl] 14/2/2019 18:19

I've got several little tech firms that I'm pleased with now.

ACSO BBSN BIDS and a few PRSM.

[hazl] 14/2/2019 18:13

Well a pleasing finish.

[the analyst] 14/2/2019 17:51

Live Nation Entertainment (NYSE: LYV) should also be looking at ACSO as a potential acquisition, imo. Would give them the chance to increase profits from current ventures, whilst expanding into new markets at the same time. Plenty of potential synergies, cross-selling opportunities, etc. Could be a perfect match.

[1001011] 14/2/2019 17:46

Vertical integration, plus the option to freeze out competitors. If a hostile bidder doesn't care about other customers, then the other customers have no say in the matter, hypothetically.

[supernumerary] 14/2/2019 17:21

Won't go to a customer - the others wouldn't like their competitor running a vital service.

tsmith - I think Buywell's even worse, so think yourself lucky!

[1001011] 14/2/2019 16:34

Re: 3753 - NBCUniversal.

[tsmith2] 14/2/2019 16:30

Has anyone come across anyone who writes as much tripe as Smithie6?

[smithie6] 14/2/2019 16:24

any guesses who might want Acso patents ?

the parks dont...they have a cheap service from Acso


only a competitor I assume
who are the competitors ....& big enough to acquire Acso ?..which I assumes means only..USA cos

[1001011] 14/2/2019 16:12

The end-game for accesso may not be becoming a dividend-paying stock. The end-game may be being acquired by one of their customers, or someone who needs accesso's patents.

Further regarding cash position, the company has a record of being cash flow positive on a full year basis. If things valley at H1 due to seasonality, they have access to a Lloyds borrowing facility.

[smithie6] 14/2/2019 16:05

btw
a 2% divi would cost ~5 million pnds

at the moment the co. is not in a situation to happily support it imo
and also pay down debt sufficiently quickly
and have enough divi cover
(& support the 3M$ cost of the bod 😂😂)

...and should start moving towards generating more cash/profits...
(hopefully the mention that re-looking at investment possibilities perhaps infers it might be starting ??)

...and charging customers a higher % (all ?) of any R & D for any product upgrades they want...
...just investing for ever in making groovy stuff...no point unless it produces cash and at some time cash for shareholders

[smithie6] 14/2/2019 15:24

result of some number crunching (uf !!)

2014 situation thru to 2017 situation

nett 48M$ cash gone out of the co. to pay for acquisitions
which looks to have been generated from generation of REAL CASH generated from turnover and not from just issuing new shares

(note that this was not calculated to be an accurate value....but just to see if the co. was generating real cash over 2014-2017 accounts or just issuing new shares or just increasing borrowings or payables)

which is good

this is after cancelling out deltas in change in situation between 2014 and 2017 in key items like (payables - receivables), (cash - borrowings) and taking into account cash inflow via shares placed for cash for ACSO's use

(Ive ignored the 6M delta in deferred tax to avoid looking in to it)

number of shares increasing from 22M to 27M

intangibles increasing by 120M$....which mostly comes from the cashflow out and new shares issued...for acquisitions..

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( I think that the amount of capitalisation has been manipulated to suit the company accounts...
and I think that that might well be ending in the 2018 accounts.....with exec. chair stepping aside....
and the share price collapse...and mention of new perf. data/info to be revealed

amount of amortisation is rocketting since intang. assets have rocketted due to 2 acquisition sin 2017

..a key item of valuing the shares will be down to how much does one value the IT/tech products being used in fixed contracts at various customers/parks....and how long one thinks those products will last...and whether the amortisation of those products in the accounts under or over estimates the real world....and the capitalisation factor, uf...(since all IT/tech only has a limited lifetime and those contracts also only have limited life....but phps have a high chance of renewal)
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the possible hiccup for ACSO phps comes from TE2 which produces a big drop in revenue due to introduction of IFRS15 accounting....and that it was loss making....so while it cost a lot of money (mostly via new shares at around 16 quid I think) it produces a drop in revenue in 2018 H1 and annual accounts...and doesnt help much the numbers for EBITDA or cash generation

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THe aquisitions made were done at full or high prices...~ 4 x turnover for Ingresso (2017) & 80M$ for x8 turnover for (!!) TE2 (2017) despite it producing 10M$ underlying revenue in 2016 ___EBITDA -3M$ ...Vision 1 (2014) at 4x turnover.....which doesnt leave much room for hiccups...or reduction in profits due to any pressure on margins or for competitive pressures.
(although TE2 was expensive...it was producing massive growth...and it had Carnival as a client....so I assume that the implementations on cruise ships is due to TE2 products....so it seems to be producing the goods. And perhaps useful to take out a risk of possible future competitor or useful acquisition for a competitor if Acso didnt buy it)...and since working for clients like Merlin one assumes/guesses that the products can be fairly easily integrated in ACSO products....

The acquisitions look to be lowish cash generators vs their acquisn prices.....TE2 had EBITDA of -3M$ for 2016

(perhaps Acso over reached by making 2 acquisitions in 1 year...perhaps over confidence due to the then.. sky high share price)

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As I have mentioned before....imo the co. has had a cash/debt 'situation' imo in H1...due to 25M$ cashoutflow due to reducing payables and due to paying a stage payment for Ingresso ( 7M pnds ?)

and with this happening in the half of the year that doesnt generate much cash versus the stronger H2 when there is more income from USA parks (noting a high % of turnover is in USA)

and has had to try to trim its feathers/plans...as mentioned in co. info/RNSs.

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30 quid share price....over rated the turnover from Merlin parks imo which was reported gross and is now reported nett...producing a step redn in that turnover.

[tsmith2] 14/2/2019 15:00

37,300 at 896..

[hazl] 14/2/2019 14:31

Again,all these intricate calculations, by you know who,yet the rise and fall of this company has had many factors.
Certainly the beginning of the drop coincides with technology starting to be hounded and going out of favour,as somebody else mentioned but also the purely technical point of having few shares in issue.
This often causes a 'scrabble' either way.