Accesso Technology Share Discussion Threads

[tsmith2] 14/2/2019 16:30

Has anyone come across anyone who writes as much tripe as Smithie6?

[smithie6] 14/2/2019 16:24

any guesses who might want Acso patents ?

the parks dont...they have a cheap service from Acso


only a competitor I assume
who are the competitors ....& big enough to acquire Acso ?..which I assumes means only..USA cos

[1001011] 14/2/2019 16:12

The end-game for accesso may not be becoming a dividend-paying stock. The end-game may be being acquired by one of their customers, or someone who needs accesso's patents.

Further regarding cash position, the company has a record of being cash flow positive on a full year basis. If things valley at H1 due to seasonality, they have access to a Lloyds borrowing facility.

[smithie6] 14/2/2019 16:05

btw
a 2% divi would cost ~5 million pnds

at the moment the co. is not in a situation to happily support it imo
and also pay down debt sufficiently quickly
and have enough divi cover
(& support the 3M$ cost of the bod 😂😂)

...and should start moving towards generating more cash/profits...
(hopefully the mention that re-looking at investment possibilities perhaps infers it might be starting ??)

...and charging customers a higher % (all ?) of any R & D for any product upgrades they want...
...just investing for ever in making groovy stuff...no point unless it produces cash and at some time cash for shareholders

[smithie6] 14/2/2019 15:24

result of some number crunching (uf !!)

2014 situation thru to 2017 situation

nett 48M$ cash gone out of the co. to pay for acquisitions
which looks to have been generated from generation of REAL CASH generated from turnover and not from just issuing new shares

(note that this was not calculated to be an accurate value....but just to see if the co. was generating real cash over 2014-2017 accounts or just issuing new shares or just increasing borrowings or payables)

which is good

this is after cancelling out deltas in change in situation between 2014 and 2017 in key items like (payables - receivables), (cash - borrowings) and taking into account cash inflow via shares placed for cash for ACSO's use

(Ive ignored the 6M delta in deferred tax to avoid looking in to it)

number of shares increasing from 22M to 27M

intangibles increasing by 120M$....which mostly comes from the cashflow out and new shares issued...for acquisitions..

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( I think that the amount of capitalisation has been manipulated to suit the company accounts...
and I think that that might well be ending in the 2018 accounts.....with exec. chair stepping aside....
and the share price collapse...and mention of new perf. data/info to be revealed

amount of amortisation is rocketting since intang. assets have rocketted due to 2 acquisition sin 2017

..a key item of valuing the shares will be down to how much does one value the IT/tech products being used in fixed contracts at various customers/parks....and how long one thinks those products will last...and whether the amortisation of those products in the accounts under or over estimates the real world....and the capitalisation factor, uf...(since all IT/tech only has a limited lifetime and those contracts also only have limited life....but phps have a high chance of renewal)
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the possible hiccup for ACSO phps comes from TE2 which produces a big drop in revenue due to introduction of IFRS15 accounting....and that it was loss making....so while it cost a lot of money (mostly via new shares at around 16 quid I think) it produces a drop in revenue in 2018 H1 and annual accounts...and doesnt help much the numbers for EBITDA or cash generation

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THe aquisitions made were done at full or high prices...~ 4 x turnover for Ingresso (2017) & 80M$ for x8 turnover for (!!) TE2 (2017) despite it producing 10M$ underlying revenue in 2016 ___EBITDA -3M$ ...Vision 1 (2014) at 4x turnover.....which doesnt leave much room for hiccups...or reduction in profits due to any pressure on margins or for competitive pressures.
(although TE2 was expensive...it was producing massive growth...and it had Carnival as a client....so I assume that the implementations on cruise ships is due to TE2 products....so it seems to be producing the goods. And perhaps useful to take out a risk of possible future competitor or useful acquisition for a competitor if Acso didnt buy it)...and since working for clients like Merlin one assumes/guesses that the products can be fairly easily integrated in ACSO products....

The acquisitions look to be lowish cash generators vs their acquisn prices.....TE2 had EBITDA of -3M$ for 2016

(perhaps Acso over reached by making 2 acquisitions in 1 year...perhaps over confidence due to the then.. sky high share price)

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As I have mentioned before....imo the co. has had a cash/debt 'situation' imo in H1...due to 25M$ cashoutflow due to reducing payables and due to paying a stage payment for Ingresso ( 7M pnds ?)

and with this happening in the half of the year that doesnt generate much cash versus the stronger H2 when there is more income from USA parks (noting a high % of turnover is in USA)

and has had to try to trim its feathers/plans...as mentioned in co. info/RNSs.

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30 quid share price....over rated the turnover from Merlin parks imo which was reported gross and is now reported nett...producing a step redn in that turnover.

[tsmith2] 14/2/2019 15:00

37,300 at 896..

[hazl] 14/2/2019 14:31

Again,all these intricate calculations, by you know who,yet the rise and fall of this company has had many factors.
Certainly the beginning of the drop coincides with technology starting to be hounded and going out of favour,as somebody else mentioned but also the purely technical point of having few shares in issue.
This often causes a 'scrabble' either way.

[nimbo1] 14/2/2019 14:25

well looks like I sold too early on this trade - gl to the rest of you.

[hazl] 14/2/2019 14:04

...busy with visitors today but I see we have some entertaining posts!

[smithie6] 14/2/2019 13:42

at many cos. the execs or non-execs are not 'allowed' to sell their shares

or only in rare circumstances

since it is seen as morally wrong...unless they subsequently leave...or leave first
(even when the share price rises above what is seen as fair/normal)

each person may have their own view on that...

[1001011] 14/2/2019 13:34

29.5 quid coincided with the Oct. 3 NASDAQ peak and "Technology" got slammed since then. An exec can sell in the 20s thinking that the overall bull market was frothy, rather than making a commentary on individual company fundamentals.

[shanklin] 14/2/2019 13:33

I have to agree that the options scheme is inappropriate.

[tsmith2] 14/2/2019 13:16

Stock being snapped up. Short squeeze coming..

[spud] 14/2/2019 13:13

Jeez Smith, you really are a grade A turkey!

spud

[smithie6] 14/2/2019 13:02

btw

many interesting or unbelievable items in accounts


------

2017 accounts
Tom Burnet
page 4

"....we are excited about the new markets."

"I am excited by where we are as an organisation
..and I see enormous growth opportunities in our future"

and the share price rises and he sells half his holding at 22 quid !!

...and then soonish afterwards he then steps down from his exec. role !!

so excited he steps down !! ...wharghhhh !

and an exec. stepped down in 2018 I think

( the options scheme was and is completely screwed up
wildly excessive rewards
exercise at 0p !!
clearly encourages execs. to get to know the co.....then sell their options become millionaires and give up their exec. role !!

NUTS

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page 8
"...adj. op. margin was 14.3% , the board maintains its view that there is potential for future improvement in this metric as the group benefits from the step down in investment across the business..."

and reducing the very high R & D spend would/should produce a big bump increase to the generation of real cash and PBT

but
at the same time the exec. chairman has stepped aside...
and the share price has gone from 30 quid to now 9. !!!!!!

clearly the mkt has not liked the news/info provided to it in recent months...

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Auditor got paid 846k$ in 2017

OUCH !!

with such a big and important client for the auditor....would an auditor risk giving the company a hard time ? and questioning the high amounts of capitalisation ....unlikely...
and phps that has played a part in the excessive rise imo to 30 quid...and subsequent collapse...

---
846k$...0.75% of turnover in 2017
...and if repeated would be 1% of the lower (due to IFRS15 2018 turnover.)

ridiculous imo

[tsmith2] 14/2/2019 12:42

short squeeze coming..

[supernumerary] 14/2/2019 12:35

Still knocking, so still buying ;¬)

Reliable in his own way, I suppose!

[tsmith2] 14/2/2019 12:34

Swift move back to £13-15.

[smithie6] 14/2/2019 12:32

anyway

the co. generated 33.1 M$ in 2017

age 3 of the auditted accounts

we do all believe that number...dont we


wharghhhhhh

:-)))))))

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(uh. no way)

[smithie6] 14/2/2019 12:29

I stick by my trouncing posts !

and my calculation of the cash generation vs cap. value

and what I predicted will be revealed in the annual accounts

and the share price fall from 30 to min. of 6.5 shows that many ppl had/have similar views...

but the co. can improve its numbers such as by 1M$ by reducing the cost of the bod back to 2015 cost ....and reducing the spend on R & D, which it is perhaps inferring it has already started....

and reducing the R & D cost by 10M$ to bump up the co. perf. was included in my posts...whether you read it is/was up to you

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btw

money lost by me in the fall from 30quid

ZERO

so, do I think I am smarter than you ?

of course ;-)

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I saw the share price movements ...and it stabilising....especially around 750p...after the dip to 650p....so I could take a punt for a bounce the same as anyone else...

[wisewilliam] 14/2/2019 12:26

Smithie6 your post 3730 is defamatory. You should withdraw it.

[tsmith2] 14/2/2019 12:08

now there's a surprise..you bought a few but trounced the company is having zero value before..#scum

[hazl] 14/2/2019 12:06

Predictions for the price for the summer ought to be interesting....

[hazl] 14/2/2019 11:45

Picking up a few!....reference to post above
Good grief!

In the mean time what a beautiful opportunity this has been ...in my opinion.

[smithie6] 14/2/2019 11:40

but it is almost impossible to determine if there is value...

with so many acquisitions, cash raises, massive changes in repayables, capitalisation numbers...

and excessive spin from the execs and esp. Tom Burnet in the accounts...it has created a fog

it sure is difficult to try to evaluate the numbers...

( I admit to picking up a few yesterday...just a few ...hoping to gain from a possible bounce since there seem to be many buyers...and the flood of sellers seemed to have stopped...and in parallel Im gonna try to unravel the numbers...to then decide whether to just milk the bounce or see if there is a longer hold story underneath)

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Confidence in Tom Burnet

ZERO !
but he's moved to be a non-exec....(a cynic may say just to keep milking the co.....and keep the right to exercise his 200k options...
and to have insider info while deciding whether to sell or hold his remaining 200k shares held