Accesso Technology Share Discussion Threads

[spud] 20/9/2016 20:14

Yup buy. Absorbed the recent sells. Book balancing. spud

[kcr69] 20/9/2016 18:51

I so hope you are right dnair28 but with no price movement either way it is a little difficult to tell whether buy, sell or simply broker movement?

[dnair28] 20/9/2016 16:30

85,000 shares purchased at £14.65

[kcr69] 20/9/2016 15:34

I agree that even at todays market cap of £325m, 11 times 2018 earnings sounds a little far fetched, and would require a monumental step change in revenue / margin to get anywhere near that figure.

However if a 2016 adjusted eps of 46.9 cents is achieved, then by my quick calculations 35% earnings growth through 2017 and 2018 should result in earnings of just under £15m for 2018, which is a multiple of 22 to todays share price.

Given the sector and available opportunities / possibilities, and that 35% would appear not unreasonable on past performance / progress, then I see 22 times earnings as being ridiculously cheap.

Having said all of that, there are clearly far too many short term sellers in the market at the moment, and a lot of people seem spooked by the slightly ambiguous commentary about poor July / August trading, which I have to assume are historically the strongest two months of the year.

[shanklin] 20/9/2016 14:53

Hi rivaldo

Anything is possible. It would just be nice to see the broker that gives a solid basis for such a big increase.

Cheers, Martin

[montyhedge] 20/9/2016 14:52

42 times forward earnings. That's not cheap according to IC.

[rivaldo] 20/9/2016 14:51

Indeed Shanklin. I don't have the 2018 forecasts, but I wonder if he's talking about a different measure other than straight EPS.

Of course it could simply be factoring in a full year of the Merlin roll-out for the first time, in which case, along with the commissions receivable from ticket sales, I can understand why people would be bandying around much higher price targets.

[shanklin] 20/9/2016 14:27

rivaldo

11 times 2018 earnings is a huge jump from the forecast 2017 earnings?

[orange1] 20/9/2016 14:09

Spud

He´s a complete and utter twerp who spouts garbage from morning till night, see Microfocus and Mobile Stream threads for details. Sometimes I think it´s just one big wind up job but on balance I think he´s just a small time trader (and fantasist) with a pea for a brain who has convinced himself that his posts can actually move a share price.

[montyhedge] 20/9/2016 14:00

You know I'm right though.

[spud] 20/9/2016 13:32

monty - we all know that you've sold after predicting £50 in 5 years (whilst you were still long). We also get that you'd like to buy back substantially below your recent sell price (who doesn't!) But please change the record - It's getting kinda boring.....

spud

[montyhedge] 20/9/2016 13:09

Directors sold shed loads at 900p couple months ago. They know company better than us. I reckon that's about its real value. No one can predict 2018p results.

[rivaldo] 20/9/2016 12:42

Imagine the potential here from the Henderson fund manager's comment that "Accesso get a 1-3 per cent cut of every ticket sold on their site".

ACSO are still a relatively small company. The revenue streams from this alone should be enormous relative to their current size.

I also hadn't realised that ACSO "trades at a valuation of 11 times 2018 earnings". This is indeed "cheap" for such a high growth company.

[itchycrack] 20/9/2016 11:33

And that's exactly what you get! So far, everytime! :-)
Note being a global business usually means any impact from the weather in one part of the world is compensated by weather in another.

[montyhedge] 20/9/2016 11:22

Current high rating does not allow for no problems, like bad weather, etc.Priced for perfection.

[dnair28] 20/9/2016 11:04

Accesso Technology getting bigger and better
By Harriet Russell, 15 September 2016

Tom Burnet, chief executive of e-ticket and 'virtual queuing' provider Accesso Technology (ASCO) is pretty pleased with himself. "The numbers are looking good," he said, referring to the group's latest set of half-year results. 'Good' is, perhaps, an understatement. Continued market traction with 57 new business wins, new system launches with 72 clients and favourable weather conditions all helped the group report significant growth at the top line, which had a knock-on effect on the profit and loss account. On an adjusted basis, the company reported a whopping 213 per cent improvement in operating profits, to $5m (£3.8m).

Amazingly, Mr Burnet says the best is yet to come. The first half is typically smaller in terms of earnings booked, so the final six months of the year should see a second surge in both revenues and profits. Earnings visibility is important for a business like Accesso, and it has just secured a chunk of its future revenue by extending its existing contract with US theme park operator, Six Flags, for another 10 years.

Analysts at Peel Hunt have placed their forecasts under review, but prior to the results the brokerage expected pre-tax profits of $14.6m for the year ending December 2016, giving EPS of 46.9¢, compared with $12.1m and 41¢ in 2015.

IC VIEW:
Everything you'd want is here: fast growth, revenue visibility and good cash generation. The only barrier to turning fully bullish here is the shares' current rating - a staggering 42 times forward earnings - which is asking just too much of prospective investors. Those already in, stay there. Hold.
Last IC view: Hold, 993p, 18 Mar 2016

[rivaldo] 20/9/2016 08:40

"The UK smaller company shares I'm buying for the current economic conditions, by top investor

Neil Hermon, who runs the Henderson Smaller Companies investment trust, which has returned 174 per cent over the past five years, compared to 103 per cent for the average trust in the sector in the same time period, has revealed the stocks he is buying in anticipation of a change in UK government policy."

"Another stock on which he is particularly keen right now is Accesso, which he disclosed is an online ticketing company.

The fund manager said, ‘The key here is that Accesso get a 1-3 per cent cut of every ticket sold on their site. That contrasts with companies such as Ticketmaster, which take a cut of up to 22 per cent. There is a lot of intellectual property behind what Accesso does, and it trades at a valuation of 11 times 2018 earnings, which is cheap, we think this is a unique business in a growth market.’"

[rivaldo] 19/9/2016 11:51

Article not posted here before:

Http ://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/123757/accesso-has-a-spring-in-its-step-123757.html

Extract:

"WHAT THE BROKERS SAID

After the half-year results, Peel Hunt predicted analysts’ full-year forecasts would nudge up.

The broker noted that the second half of last year chipped in with two-thirds of annual revenues, so if that pattern is repeated accesso is on course for full-year revenue of around US$115mln, well ahead of Peel Hunt’s forecast of US$101mln.

The stock has been one of the best performers on the market over the last 18 months, pushing the rating to a heady 38 times projected earnings per share for 2017.

“However, we believe that the current rating is only factoring in some of the likely upside to our and market estimates and that the shares remain very attractive, with the company being one of the best positioned technology companies in the UK, in our view,” the broker said.

The broker has a target price of 2,100p.

The group’s house broker, Numis Securities, was caught on the hop by the strong performance, which was much better than it expected, though it did caution against reading too much into that, because of the seasonal nature of the sector accesso operates in.

“Notwithstanding this, we think H1's strength gives a good cushion against the July/August weakness that management indicate some customers suffered due to extreme hot weather in the US,” the broker said.

It is leaving its full-year forecasts unchanged, expressing confidence that the group is strong enough to withstand a weaker summer.

“R&D [research & development] acceleration is a key theme in the numbers; we speculate that such investment implies an increasing pipeline of material new opportunities. The R&D acceleration impacts our near term forecasts on a Numis basis, although has limited longer-term effect. However, our analysis indicates that very broadly, a material additional contract could be worth c.£3-4 on the share price and we think it reasonable to reflect this into our valuation on a 2019 view thus our TP [target price] increases to 1700p from 1270p,” the broker said."

[carcosa] 19/9/2016 03:18

Interim results presentation material:

[dnair28] 17/9/2016 04:28

The contract wins will keep coming as Accesso retrofits its technology to existing theme parks and integrates it into new parks. Currently it is available only to "rich" visitors who are willing to pay a premium to virtually queue. The real step change will be development of the technology to offer every visitor (both rich and poor) a completely queue-less experience. Although this has been trialled at Thorpe Park I do not know whether it has been perfected for the entire daily visitor number at any attraction. This will enable operators to sweat their assets much better and enable visitors to queue less and spend more.

The end game will be whosoever owns the company will own the asset productivity and cashflow (worth billions of pounds) for thousands of attractions worldwide. Not to mention a heap of data relating attractions and consumer leisure/spending habits.

I see the assigned seat ticketing business as a distraction and something that will grow quickly but could eventually be spun off or sold. For now it is useful for smoothing the seasonality of annual revenue and weather effects.

There isn't really a limit to how much this company and share price can grow if it can stay independent. The most logical suitors in my mind remain theme park operators - e.g. Walt Disney, Comcast (Universal Studios) or Paramount, who will be able to gain an unfair advantage by swallowing the "guest experience" infrastructure of their competitors and the IP for virtual queuing. At this point they can charge (almost) whatever they like for licensing this technology, and the competition has the choice to either stomach the costs or lose revenue by going back to the queuing Stone Age.

[spud] 16/9/2016 17:18

Tom's stated aim is to turn this company into a Billion £ plus company. Divide 100 by 2.3 (allowing for future dilution) and you'll have your minimum share price (unless we're snapped up by then).

spud

[glyn10] 16/9/2016 17:03

I am hoping for an share price of around £50 unless we get a TO before then

[panic investor] 16/9/2016 14:04

serious question you long termer. Where do you se this company in five years ?

[perceypig] 15/9/2016 18:53

I wouldn't loose too much sleep over the directors montyhedge, I'm sure the company will "give" them enough to make up for any hits they may have taken

pp