Acacia Mining Share Discussion Threads

[macca32] 31/5/2017 17:36

Acacia up again today 1.92% on Tanzania stock exchange

[nasnas1] 31/5/2017 15:45

Looking good

[ukgeorge] 31/5/2017 15:28

Roll on resolution and these back to £4+

[electrick] 31/5/2017 08:23

2.5% jumps do get the adrenaline going

[tsmith2] 31/5/2017 08:14

a whiff of resolution and shorters going to get absolutely toasted.I think it's a lot closer than most imagine it to be

[zedder] 31/5/2017 06:33

Found the article:

hxxps://heisenbergreport.com/2017/04/20/guest-post-the-real-message-from-the-vaneck-gdxj-mess/

And it looks like it is over 11 days of average daily volume.

[zedder] 31/5/2017 06:25

I recently read an article via a link on some thread (can't remember which) that the Van Eck Gold ETF GDXJ is having another of it's regular constituent changes on 17th June. ACA looks like it will now be included in the ETF and the gist of the article was that the buying required to get it into GDXJ would be to soak up the equivalent of 5 days of average volume. As I am so cynical about the whole world of fund management, one could wonder if the Tanzanian Government have been 'encouraged' in their recent behaviour in order for GDXJ to get the required chunk of ACA at beneficial prices!

[macca32] 30/5/2017 19:09

Acacia advances today on Tanzania Stock Market 0.57%

[electrick] 30/5/2017 13:34

plenty of meat left on the carcass yet....

[keya5000] 30/5/2017 13:21

Losing 1$m per day in revenue but likely still cash positive.

Seriously time to be short was at £5, not now.

Risk now favours the longs.

[macca32] 30/5/2017 13:20

Should finish today around the Tanzania stock market price of 316 after all they should know.now near the highs of the day

[electrick] 30/5/2017 13:13

Shorts hoping that Acacia may not be dealing with a rational administration and if some resolution isnt reached, Acacia potentially faces the prospect of a protracted and costly legal battle in international courts....

potential may need to refund $22m in advanced payments and to prepare to defend against demands for further royalty payments, taxes, or penalties.

Surely a near-term resolution to resume concentrate exports may be difficult to achieve given the high profile announcements last week?

Will management consider the suspension or curtailment of operations Bulyanhulu and Buzwagi mines??

Acacia have said it was losing $1m a day in revenue. If the full report isn't shared how long can this continue?

Where is the middle ground for resolution? despite recent correction surely even with the cash the company holds drastic contingency must be contemplated...

[novicetrade68] 30/5/2017 12:24

If markets get too heavy on the short side then often the opposite happens in these corrupt markets and vice versa.

[electrick] 30/5/2017 12:17

NT68... Well I truly hope that doesn't happen here.. I do not want any shorts to get crushed at the moment...

settled in an orderly fashion around the £2.20 range would seem a much better outcome...

Time will tell

[novicetrade68] 30/5/2017 12:14

Not necessarily true, in the cases of CG. and CEY the uncertainty just got shrugged off and shorts got crushed.

[electrick] 30/5/2017 12:11

and impact of not releasing the report (or delaying it) means no resolution.. uncertainty can only mean one thing... stagnation and drifting..

hence the reason the low end seems more likely at present....

plenty of short termers to mop up in the next 5-10 sessions

[novicetrade68] 30/5/2017 11:57

Tanzania may never even release the report whilst its dawning on them it's full of cr@p. They will also have to consider the implications of their actions as mass lay-offs from the mines would be another headache for them.

[atlantic57] 30/5/2017 11:52

The investec article is worthless!

Stevea sums up the position as i see it.

[electrick] 30/5/2017 11:44

plenty looking at the bottom end figure whilst there is uncertainty and conflict with the Tz government..

Should see a push lower

[tsmith2] 30/5/2017 11:40

Investec - shoddy

[stevea171] 30/5/2017 11:23

There is likely to be uncertainty here for months with little news and no clear idea of how things will play out with this Government which is likely to continue unpredictable.

As such the share price is likely to drift with long intervals between spikes up or down as and when news happens on either side. A sustained recovery in the share price can only happen when or if the Tanzanian government is satisfied with all aspects of ACA's operations and compliance with government legislation.

"Declared first provisional corporate tax payment of US$8.7 million for Q1 2017 due to strong performance at North Mara." And $55 million corporate tax incurred for 2016 incl a $20 million prepayment. This is what the Government doesn't like. 15 years operations in the country and only now it's starting to pay corporate tax for 2016 and 2017. ACA has been accused of engaging in "a sophisticated scheme of tax evasion."

Then there's this Government SE listing requirement with less than 3 months to run. Listing of ACA's 3 mines on the DSE would require preparatory action now but instead ACA is arguing with the Government because it does not mean to comply with this law it doesn't like. The Government is taking sanctions against ACA who think they are bigger than the Government and can pick and choose what Laws they comply with.

 Focus from the Government to increase transparency of business in Tanzania
 Enacting regulation on a sector by sector basis, to make companies list on the local stock exchange
 First sector to be impacted was Telecommunications followed by mining
 Mining regulations impose two main obligations
 30% local shareholding obligation through listing on the local stock exchange
 Obligation for each of the entities that own Bulyanhulu, Buzwagi and North Mara to individually list
 Deadline for listing is 23 August 2017
 Acacia Mining plc cross-listed on the DSE in 2011, to promote Tanzanian ownership
 Engaging with the relevant authorities in Tanzania
 To find a route forward that is both beneficial and practical for all stakeholders

[harry vederci] 30/5/2017 10:55

Acacia Mining now a 'binary investment', figures Investec

30 May, 2017 10:09 - Updated: 11:09

With shares in Acacia Mining down by more than a third since Tanzania's accusation that the company is grossly underreporting the value of its gold exports, Investec said the company was more of a "binary investment" as it "may not be dealing with a rational administration".

After an investigation of containers held at Dar Es Salaam port by a presidential committee, the FTSE 250 gold miner, which is 63.9%-owned by Toronto-based Barrick Gold, was accused of reporting only a tenth of the true gold content.

The committee claimed to have found gold content of 7.8 tonnes, or 250,000 ounces, which compared to the 26,000oz declared by the company and the 254,552 oz produced in the calendar year of 2016.

"We had expected the concentrate ban to be resolved, anticipating perhaps some penalty in the form of increased tax prepayments," said Investec on Tuesday, keeping its 'hold' rating and setting a 'binary' target price outcome of 512p or 235p.

"However, given the implausible assertions being propagated by the Tanzanian government, it now appears that Acacia may not be dealing with a rational administration and that there may not in fact be an equitable resolution to come.
"Unless some resolution is reached, Acacia now faces the prospect of a protracted and costly legal battle in international courts."

The fall in the share price might arguably reflects an appropriate risk adjustment, analyst Hunter Hillcoat wrote, were it not for the improbability of the government’s assertion.

If Acacia decides to close its Bulyanhulu and Buzwagi mines to focus on its one remaining mine in the country and emerging production from Kenya, his valuation for the shares crashes to 235p as 2018-19 earnings per share forecasts would reduce by more than half, but if the situation is resolved the base case of 512p offers plenty of upside.

"Our sense is that Acacia is now more of a binary investment – it is either worth what it was before this situation, or it is worth the cash that it has in its (non-Tanzanian) banks. We cannot recommend investment in Acacia until the Tanzanian authorities provide some comfort that companies can operate there under predefined agreements."

[glenkaz] 30/5/2017 10:41

🐂 run the Bulls have it squeeeeeze those short d/cks! 👍🏻

[electrick] 30/5/2017 10:30

Interesting to see how long govt make Aca wait until they share the Committee's full report. Detailed observations will make very interesting reading... how long arbitration?

In the meantime what damage to the companies relationship in Tz?

Over done? I don't think so.