Anyone confirm my Calcs. correct.
1. Held 16,000 shares
2. Dividend 10/1 = 16,000 x 3p = £480
3. Pay 24/12 = 16,000 x 52p = £8,320
4. Today = 9.3 p (approx) = £1,490
T O T A L = £10,290
Much appreciated .... |
The interesting part is to come. Take off the 55p and you get 5.75p, assuming yesterday had an effective close of 60.75p.
I see 63p of available assets with 1p having been distributed as a dividend, leaving 62p. (that 63p represents a discount from the maximum 64p touted as of the original announcement of wind down as Far Ralia "could" be sold at a meaningful discount to the advertised £12mn).
So 63p - 55p = 8p which might be bought for 9.1p (current offer) minus the 3p on Thursday morning = 6.1p. That effective leverage might offer a potential gain of some 30%, but I see more sellers than buyers at present, perhaps because no one is generally that bothered with the stuff that might drag on for a while.
But unlike EPIC, it is possible to buy these heavily discounted (leverage on rump value) shares if one wants to take a view on final recovery.
[offer is now a mere 8.81p] |
So... 60.8p - 52p XC makes 8.8p mid, looks about right.
3p XD (to make up the 55p) not ex yet..
Might have hoped for a little higher to keep the same discount, but one is a discount to mainly cash, the other a discount to cash & mainly Far Ralia. |
to buy today or not? |
Found it. they are looking around 12 million for it. so say they get 10 million plus whatever cash they have left over from the other disposal. All looks a good buy |
Hi all, any idea what the remaining land is worth approx. It looks like a decent punt at this price |
Perhaps the thing to do would br to wait until we go xd/xr and get the 55p. Then we’d have shares with a price of 5.8p but a potential return of 8-9p, a 25-50% upside. Will be interesting to see the spread then. |
Wiser heads than mine will no doubt figure out how we get from 55p to the NAV of 65p |
Mr Euro, yes I remember your post.
Excellent result for you today .....almost all your money back and still tied in to the upside.
I've added at 60.8p and API has always done well for me ....sold out a large holding at over 80p (just because I wanted the money...not because I was smart ) then bought in at average 50p.......just a lucky share for me !!!! |
I have a similar view. API has been a very good investment for me and I parked a lot of unused cash here at about 60-60.4 (plus my original investment). 5-10% extra return in 3 months or so, whilst receiving a bunch of the cash back = works for me. |
I think the 64p as being 63p+1p was put forward here but I consider Q3 to be long gone and the 1p dividend with it.
The company repeated target is 64p but they are unlikely to say 64p then come in under that......the Q3 income before the 1p dividend was £3.4m so the following two months had a net income of over £2m and no dividend payment.
The Q3 figures had a NAV of 65p with as many costs as possible accounted for so 64p-65p now looks like the figure
The one thing that is bugging me is the purchase price of £234m net gives 61.5p/share but there is a lump of cash in the account that is not included.....I know there are current running costs and wind-down costs but....??
Then there is the land sale.
One thought did occur to me is that the REIT status required a certain dividend payment but 3p making 6p does seem a bit over the top.
Having settled on 64p-65p ( my opinion for my decision) we now have:- buy for 60.8p get 55p back then wait and see .......hmmm seems good to me. |
The 64p (63p+1p) divi received) was re-iterated on 7 Nov. I would be amazed if this is revised up. Hopeful it doesn't get revised down but the opaque recent announcements suggest it might be else why not re-iterate. |
PA, the thought when the news of the sale was first announced was that 64p was inclusive of any interim dividend. Your £11.5mn dividend is likely already a part of the £234mn (although the original notice was confusing to everyone here).
67p would not be my central or even stress high assumption, but rather the original 64p. The market is saying the same thing.
The 3p dividend is taxable for many holders, and this surprisingly large dividend portion was not welcome. Hence the subdued reaction, even with what seemed a meaningful step towards liquidity. |
I think you are mixing the 3p dividend with the 52p payout.
£234m after debt
15% retained 85% distributed ....£199m or 52p.share
£35 million remaining to be distributed.
I was pleased with the 3p dividend and as I said it is hardly likely they have left themselves with no cash on hand.
If we ignore expenses the bulk of which SHOULD have been covered by the previous rather substantial write down in asset value.....we get
£234m + £11.5M (dividend) + £10m(?) land we get £255.5m = 67p/share plus any remaining cash minus expenses.
67p would obviously be nice but 65p+ looks very possible
You pays your money you takes your chance. |
Isn't it 25m (not 35m) remaining after 55p payout?
from
An Initial Distribution of 55 pence per API Share equates to an aggregate initial return of net disposal proceeds of approximately £209.67 million.
and
The Company expects initial proceeds of at least £234m subject to normal adjustments, including those arising from the completion process. |
Pavey Ark, how do you get 65p ?
234m + 10m / 209.67 x 55p = 64.0p |
No the logic is right. It's just about taking the bird in hand, given the timeline and uncertainty of the final amount. |
We may be talking about a pence here and a pence there but they did mention 64p before and I can certainly see 65p or even more.
The 3p dividend would not leave them potless.
£35m remaining from the received offer
There have been previous, serious write-downs to cover expenses but let's knock off £5m for fun.
So with some cash left on the books, £30m (?) still to come (already received !!)and the land to be sold £38m would give an additional 10p+
If shares are bought at 61p and you get 55p back almost immediately then additional 1p,2p,3p or 4p does look statistically significant.
Perhaps the coffee was rather strong this morning !!!??? |
Another reason I sold, limited upside aside, was also thinking through tax reporting. Much easier to report a profit from a sale than have to calculate the return of capital etc etc. |
I'm going by what they'd previously guided, with a little off for Far Ralia/costs, but there's enough unknowns to not be sure. FR isn't likely to sell for a premium after this time. |
Consensus here seems to be circa 63p.
Can anyone share how they get to that - esp current cash after return, assumed costs from here? Is there any tax to pay?
I estimate £1.75m to the IM (I assume no incentive fee?). Rounded up to £5m to allow for opex, company windup, liquidator fees, etc. But would appreciate others’ take. |
Expecting/hoping 63p within months, the majority in weeks, the last part longer. They could sell Far Ralia tomorrow, or it might still be there in 6 months - clearly they don't want to let it go cheaply.
Agree the full winding-up always takes longer than expected, but having 55p of it coming in is handy. |
Which is why I sold. I preferred a realisation at 61.25 than 55p now, a possible 6p at a later date, might be less, and a possible extra 2.5p from the final land sale.
At best, in 3 months it might be 62.5p, it might not. |
55p includes divi. Why are they keeping 6p back? Costs? I sold on Friday at 61.25p |
Register for real-time alerts, custom portfolio, and market movers
Hot Features
Premium
