Abacus Share Discussion Threads

[darlocst] 12/6/2008 13:45

philjeans - Best of luck with your investement in ABU.

[philjeans] 12/6/2008 13:24

"The point" is making money!

I hadn't realised I was being stalked and marked for transparency!

It's a big bad world out there - I can't be with you every step of the way my son.

[darlocst] 12/6/2008 13:06

philjeans

your last post (# 625) said:

"I'm holding for continuing strong recovery here - this smells like a very good bet still and could also be a takeover prospect now the balance sheet is clean and profitable."

Now you are "back in".


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philjeans - 15 May'08 - 08:31 - 625 of 656


JC ; you're right of course, but it's a bit more than the results - it's current and future trading forecasts that will determine the s/p.

The company have been very open and honest about recent business - giving an "in line" report back in Jan on first four months of current f/y - and again in April WHEN IT CONFIRMED THAT THE HALF YEAR FIGURES FOR SIX MONTHS TO 31/3 WERE IN LINE WITH CO EXPECTATIONS!

So we know the half year figures will be good, profitable and the debt paid down by normal scheduled repayments AND a big lump off from sale of surplus properties. That should lead to dividend declaration of about 14% pa based on last time and current m/c.

What we DON'T know for sure , is how the order book looks now - both in UK and across Europe. Comments about that will be critical. My own thoughts are that sales will be holding up presently - we're not in a recession (although the papers would have you think that!) and trade continues to grow.

I'm holding for continuing strong recovery here - this smells like a very good bet still and could also be a takeover prospect now the balance sheet is clean and profitable.

[philjeans] 12/6/2008 12:43

Got back in here again today - offer excellent value and a great yield, despite the cut back in divi recently.

Director buying is a very good sign - they know much more than us about future prospects........or takeover potential.

[dumbarton2] 11/6/2008 18:39

With the threat of interest rates going up worldwide any company with high debt is being avoided.

Sell.

[mesquida] 11/6/2008 09:56

Have you guys actually read the last statement from this Company? ABACUS is actively considering acquisitions - they expect to be consolidators rather than consolidated. Furthermore, the recent Director purchases, whilst only of a fairly modest size, were very significant in that this is a Board that does not have a history of buying. In my opinion this stock is now massively undervalued and I expect a substantial bounce over the next few weeks!

[simon gordon] 06/6/2008 09:47

Maybe the equity will get so cheap that an Asian or American distributor will buy them and strip out costs.

Can't see much of a premium and it could drift lower on fears of solvency.

[mt67] 02/6/2008 16:42

Could do share price capitulates again on debt worries/slowdown etc. Any fall in turnover and it could be curtains.

[dumbarton2] 31/5/2008 09:59

The fall was expected. Best to avoid high dividend shares they can collapse when the dividend is cut. I HAVE BEEN BEARISH FOR A LONG Time.

A far better bet is EKT results earlier this year expected mid to early June, dividend expected to rise amnd the co is expected to make record profits. I expect no debt and cash accumilating.

[kickoff3pm] 30/5/2008 16:09

mmm.. been tracking this to buy back in again for over a month. Lucky time was never right to make that trade. On the results, they are suffering for maintaining the divi that high for so long. It's now not a divi ride so the fall is warrented but it's a bit over done so if you are braver then I it might be worth a punt. Fair chance it chould bounce at 10% Monday but that's not enough for my money.

KO.

[nigelwestm] 30/5/2008 15:57

Well I was in it because it looked an outstanding yield play. Of course they can always cut the divi and they did. Gone into freefall and I expect that it won't come out of this dive for a while since it goes ex-div soon...

I was annoyed at having to get out at around 50p. I'm not so annoyed now...

[jimmycarter] 30/5/2008 15:20

Well it was on the cards once results were not that good.

[nigelwestm] 30/5/2008 15:05

Well glad I'm out now, otherwise I would have lost more money...

[nigelwestm] 30/5/2008 12:10

Yes. It's very depressing. Turned out to be a huge waste of time for me, as well as costing me a few quid.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but the spartan trading update (rather than giving us confidence) should have been a warning... Also, the fact that the week before the results there were many periods when you couldn't sell more than 1,500 shares in one go (at least not with my online broker). I ended up having to sell my entire stake in several tranches at 50-odd p.

Of course, I should have done it the day before (at 61p) but blind optimism made me think the dividend would be maintained. Foolish!

Anyway, all good lessons for the future...

[jimmycarter] 30/5/2008 11:30

Sadly I think this will fall further. I was optimistic about the prospects for this company but with a more realistic hat on when times are tough very few companies are immune. The debt was abit disappointing as previous statement said it had fallen. Dividend falling is a wise move otherwise I would have management concerns. This is possibly a good recovery play still if Markets do not crumble but for now I see it falling (as with many). Beginning 2008 looks like a year when people talk of being on the edge of recession. What end of 2008 and 2009 hold is anyones call. On the whole I am pessimistic about prospects. General sentiment is poor.

[bletherer] 28/5/2008 09:54

Ok MT, you've done well there. I should have taken some money off the table when it got into the 70s - not least on the basis of my own technical analysis which told me that 75p was going to be an extremely tough hurdle (posted on here, so I hope somebody profited from it, lol). Overall it's a mixed statement - trading and profitability is holding up ok so far, so in that regard better than I feared it might have been, but obviously the failure to cut debt remains a concern and the dividend cut is unwelcome (though not hugely surprising). They say they expect debt levels to fall in the second half, but I'd find this a bit more convincing if they went into more detail about what mechanism is going to drive this improvement.

[nigelwestm] 28/5/2008 09:20

Hats off to you MT67. You called it correctly.

Sold out on the news this morning. I bought a substantial part of my holding sub-49p so I have not suffered too badly. Really kicking myself for not taking profit at 70p.

We live and learn, I suppose... May get back in if it falls much further

[mt67] 28/5/2008 09:11

Where is bletherer this am i wonder, lol. Well in profit thank you
very much, took some.

Well you were warned about divi cut, debt is a worry. Slowdown will
hit hard in 6-12months.

Capital raising is ? i would be concerned about if the economy blows
up. If it happens dilution will hurt.

Good luck.

[jimmycarter] 28/5/2008 08:21

Scenario 2 - open 10% down then falls further.

Well Divi cut which has caused this but also general outlook( Predicts 2nd half similar to 2007 2nd half). Debt going up didn't help although they suggest this will come down for the FY results.

All in all not good. Can see this falling further over weeks possibly into 30's?

[jimmycarter] 27/5/2008 17:22

I am hoping for positve stuff tomorrow to drive this up to 70p and beyond. But in this climate anyting less then positive might send this back. I think we have developed reisitance but lets see 2moro. Will it open up 10%? Just one scenario I am sure......

[nigelwestm] 27/5/2008 16:16

Yeah... I hope you're right mesquida.

My only concern is that if you wanted to sell more than 1,500 of these over the past week you had to trade outside of the bid-offer spread (well below the bid in fact). And that was when the market makers would accept volumes of 1,500+ (much of the time they wouldn't).

I've held on to all my stake in the hope that the MMs don't know anything bad and they were just being cautious...

[mesquida] 27/5/2008 16:12

Last chance to lock in on an 11% plus yield before tomorrow´s announcement - never let it be said that it is impossible to make money in a bear market!