Abacus Share Discussion Threads

[like2share] 16/4/2008 21:03

definately one to add to your stock watchlist

[like2share] 16/4/2008 18:50

the important thing is that the downtrend looks to be broken...and can see a small uptrend forming...coupled with the positive trading update of recent this looks like an interesting risk/reward position forming here

[jimmycarter] 16/4/2008 16:41

If it hits 60p over next two weeks I think we will be on the way upwards. I have a target of anything between 60-110p over next two/three months. Results obviously will have a major impact here on how it does. If supported by overall Market upturn/optimism then the higher end of my target price might be reached within the next two/three months.

[like2share] 16/4/2008 16:23

Have a short term target of 75p as well on this (long term 100p).

Worth a re-read of the recent statement.

When it moves, we all know how difficult it is to buy in sizeable amounts.

[philjeans] 16/4/2008 15:39

Stronger Euro will translate into higher profits here, won't it?

Their big European operations will earn more - am I correct?

[bletherer] 15/4/2008 17:07

Yup, so far so good - successful retest of 50p, it seems. Now we have to see if it can break above the April 2nd high (at 58.5p) to start a new leg up (hopefully to my target of around 75p).

[philjeans] 15/4/2008 14:34

Held up well over these past few dire days; off up again today.

[mt67] 10/4/2008 15:12

ACL fall 15%-ominous. Worst still come as euro econ weakens, profit warning/slowdown within 3 months i suspect.

[nigelwestm] 10/4/2008 11:58

I hope you are right...

[bletherer] 10/4/2008 11:33

Nigel - could still happen IMO, it's not surprising they took a breather after a rapid 30%+ bounce. I'm looking for ABU to hold above 50 on this current bout of "profit-taking" - if it fails to do that it's looking like another false dawn. So long as it holds 50 I'm still looking for an eventual move back to around 75 to take shape in the next month or two.

[philjeans] 04/4/2008 18:17

Closed at the day's high after many last minute tax sales pushed it back.
Looking for the next leg up starting Monday.

[philjeans] 03/4/2008 08:31

Abacus Group Fundamentals
Year Ending Revenue (£m) Pre-tax (£m) EPS P/E PEG EPS Grth. Div Yield
30-Sep-03 a146.98 a7.62 13.50p 16.7 n/a -19% 10.20p 4.5%
30-Sep-04 a187.80 a9.30 15.90p 15.3 0.9 +18% 10.50p 4.3%
30-Sep-05 a178.80 a4.00 13.60p 8.7 n/a -14% 7.20p 6.1%
30-Sep-06 257.10 (0.10) 13.60p 12.2 n/a n/a 7.20p 4.3%
30-Sep-07 286.90 0.60 11.80p 6.9 n/a -13% 7.20p 8.9%

a. Based on UK GAAP presentation of accounts - includes discontinued activities

Abacus Group Forecasts
Year Ending Revenue (£m) Pre-tax (£m) EPS P/E PEG EPS Grth. Div Yield
30-Sep-08 285.00 13.50 12.40p 4.6 0.9 +5% 7.20p 12.9%
30-Sep-09 290.00 14.20 13.02p 4.4 0.9 +5% 7.20p 12.9%

Even if they achieve these (rather dated) forecasts now, I'll be very, very happy and the shares will be back to a quid!

[philjeans] 02/4/2008 13:40

MT - you sound like a desperate shorter, trying to talk it down again whilst you still have some profit left!

Think again my son - this is on the turn.

[philjeans] 02/4/2008 13:39

Highly operational geared is right; any increase in sales will zoom straight down to the bottom line!

Bank will be very pleased with ABU performance to date and happy to lend to a growing and well managed business.

[mt67] 02/4/2008 10:43

Remember guys ABU is highly operationally geared, any drop off in sales falls to the bottom line so if/when slowdown/recession hits UK/European markets profits will be savaged, divvy slashed. A small fall in turnover will have a disproportionate effect on profits. With all that debt there is more than likely bank cov's stipulating certain level of profitability/interest cover required. Wouldn't like to hazard a guess what these cov's might be but if profits fell, funds may be required to shore up the balance sheet ie rights issue/d4e which would be highly dilutive.

April fools spouting tosh yesterday will be regretting not taking those profits soooooooooooooon!

Wise men say only fools rush in!

[meadow50] 02/4/2008 10:02

I hold and topped up yesterday.If board's expectations are the same as the markets-7.2p div- I invested for a 13% yield!

[mt67] 02/4/2008 09:13

Ah no nasties and shrieks of irrational exuberance, euphoria fills the airwaves befitting the stench of sewerage which will waft its way over Europe in the form a recession in the coming months, the outlook is grim, calm before the storm, you've been forewarned.

The debt will be a millstone around ABU's neck in the latter part of the calendar year, profit warnings....repent and weep for the end is nigh.

[philjeans] 02/4/2008 08:35

And we're off and running - next stop 65p for a rest, before we challenge 75p.

[like2share] 01/4/2008 19:29

bought into these at sub 50p recently and am extremely happy with todays news and rise, looking at e2v as another strong recovery play (bletherer pls could you put your comments on that chart over on the e2v thread)

[bletherer] 01/4/2008 17:23

Closing "at the highs going away" as they say. We saw a powerful rally in late November too, but the difference this time is that the rally comes after a long basing period rather than a precipitous plunge, and has broken it out of the downtrend. Assuming it can hold above 55p and start to move upwards I would see the 3 key levels of likely resistance as 75p, 100p, and 125-130p. 75p was the previous all-time-low so a lot of long-term holders will have been shocked that it broke below that level and will likely look to sell out if it recovers to that level. It also (not surprisingly) provided quite a bit of support on the way down. 100p apart from being a nice round number provided the base for the rally of 06-07 so will be another likely support-turned-resistance area; while 125-130p as well as being the 50% retracement of the fall from the 2007 highs is also where the long-term downtrend will kick in - if it ever gets back that far I expect a significant wave of selling to come in at the point where it retests the major downtrend (stretching right back to the start of the decade). These 25p intervals also fit nicely with Fingers' basic technical theory. So still a mountain to climb in the bigger picture but at least it makes a change to be thinking about resistance rather than support levels...

[nigelwestm] 01/4/2008 16:10

I'm not that long-suffering. Although I dabbled in Abacus when it was nearer 200p, I also got out at around that level without making too much of a loss.

The reason I came back in (admittedly at 60-odd pence) was because although I had been expecting a decline, I couldn't believe how cheap these were. As they have got cheaper, I have topped up, so now I need about 58p to break-even.

However, I reckon it won't be too long before I am well in profit...

[bletherer] 01/4/2008 16:05

MT67 - 11 Mar'08 - 18:30 - 525 of 560


Trading update e/o March due, trading softening i expect or at least the market is anticipating/guessing this. ABU is highly operationally geared, any drop off in sales falls to the bottom line so if a recession hits UK/European markets profits will be savaged, divvy slashed. With all that debt there is more than likely bank cov's stipulating certain level of profitability/interest cover required. Wouldn't like to hazard a guess what these cov's might be but if profits fell, funds may be required to shore up the balance sheet ie rights issue/d4e which would be highly dilutive.

Maybe just scaremongering but if Europe sinks into recession ABU may go the same way as Eurodis Electron!

If however you believe all is rosy in the garden and that subprime is all a figment of the markets imagination which will not cause a recession in Europe you might aswell bury your head in the sand.

I expect 25-35p in the not to distant future!

SELL SELL SELL

----------------

Not quoting this to gloat but to point out that MT67 may have been reflecting a broader market expectation that the trading statement would contain bad news - if he and those like him were shorting in anticipation they may be inclined to cover now, which could help ABU stage a rally. This could be a case where "no news is good news" for us long-suffering holders.