Abacus Share Discussion Threads

[bletherer] 01/4/2008 13:19

Hmm, looks like the absence of bad news has been enough to get a few people warming to the deep value on offer here. The other piece of good news technically is that the downtrend over the last year has been so strong that we've already (even at just 53p) broken out of all the various downtrend channels operating over this period. There could be quite a few stale bulls selling at 55p (people who got caught out in the failed rally last autumn) but on the other hand there's potentially quite a lot of momentum from the inverse head and shoulders pattern completing. I think ABU now has a decent shot at a rally back to 75p in the next month or so.

[philjeans] 01/4/2008 13:18

Well and truly off the bottom now - I'm already well in profit on my longs over the past two months.

Bags more to come - long and strong.

[bletherer] 01/4/2008 10:53

Yes, although I'm not wildly thrilled the current share price is clearly pricing in further profit warnings. If they do not materialise and ABU survives the slowdown/recession without a major liquidity crisis then the shares will simply have to be rerated in a big way. It's still too early to tell if they'll get through unscathed but if they haven't warned by the end of the year I'm sure the shares will be a lot higher than they are now. Meanwhile in the short term there's a possible inverse head and shoulders pattern forming if ABU can push above 50p. Main initial barriers after that would then be 55p and 75p (I expect very big resistance at 75p).

[nigelwestm] 01/4/2008 10:22

However, let's not knock that statement too much. The share price is moving... up!

Maybe the market is finally waking up to the value here...

[nigelwestm] 01/4/2008 09:46

Yeah... I'd prefer "market expectations". However, I'm in for the long haul: even if the divi is cut in half it's still a good yield...

[bletherer] 01/4/2008 09:18

Personally I wish they'd be a bit more forthcoming in their statements - this one says very little, and once again makes reference to the company's expectations rather than market expectations, which I don't like (it's not clear what their own internal expectations are...). But at least there's no warning on profits or sales, so I hope this will help the share price find a base even if it doesn't send it shooting upwards.

[philjeans] 01/4/2008 09:12

ABU peaked at £3.50 three years ago!

Now less than one seventh of the price and a far better business - bigger, slicker and will make a lot more in 08/09.

The debt worry is far overdone - paying it back quickly and with good trading, the bank will want to continue support.

[philjeans] 01/4/2008 07:57

Great news; trading in line.

That should be reflected in a doubling in the share price and a halving in the yield - currently 16.5%!

Has been massacred in the sell-off - but no recession in Europe, or anywhere else.

[dumbarton2] 31/3/2008 14:50

It was a dead cat bounce mms overloading stock and now back down.

[dumbarton2] 28/3/2008 10:28

Going back down agasin most companies with high debt being hit.

[philjeans] 27/3/2008 08:59

Up 11% in last two days; a couple of early buys again today.

Warming up nicely and getting ready for a big rise when figures announced.

[bletherer] 26/3/2008 11:24

Hmm, looks like a few people are taking a bet on the long side prior to their trading update. The latest move would actually break ABU out of the 2008 downchannel if it holds into the close.

[bletherer] 26/3/2008 09:33

Yes, it was the ambiguously worded trading statement exactly a year ago which started the avalanche (there was a lot of discussion back then about whether "management expectations" meant something significantly different from "market expectations" - well we know the answer to that one now at least...). At the time I couldn't believe even how far the initial fall went given the rather modest nature of the profit warning - I never dreamed it would sink to these depths. Expectations are certainly a little lower than they were this time last year - so can Abacus manage to deliver something encouraging enough to spark a rally? Any clear indication that they are heading for profitable trading this year would be sufficient, I think.

[philjeans] 26/3/2008 09:23

Price appears much stronger in recent days; trying to go up constantly now.

A satisfactory trading update (now due) will add the missing ingredient for a significant gap-up.

[bletherer] 26/3/2008 09:20

I have resistance at 50p and 55p. If it gets past both of those marks then a rally back to the 75p level looks on. I would expect at least initial failure at 75p, though. It was the previous all-time low and provided a lot of support last autumn, so unless there's some extraordinary positive catalyst the likelihood is that selling at that level would cap any initial rally and send it back for a deep retest. Still, having to worry about failures at overhead resistance would make a pleasant change, eh? No harm in dreaming...

[philjeans] 25/3/2008 15:48

Nice - 5% a day will do me.

[philjeans] 25/3/2008 13:04

Looking increasingly like a superb recovery stock ; currently yielding 16.3% and divi is covereed 1.6 times. Forecast P/E 3.4 and a PEG of 0.7.

Steal.

[dumbarton2] 20/3/2008 11:59

Ticked back up to where?

The chart says it all....

[nigelwestm] 20/3/2008 11:59

Anyway, what are serious people here thinking about a forthcoming trading statement (ABU usually publishes one at the end of March), especially in the light of Premier Farnell's recent news?

[nigelwestm] 20/3/2008 11:55

And the share's ticked back up again. Seems like you spoke too soon... lol