glenowen,
I'm not sure how I see anything coming out of the coronavirus crisis - pubs, FOUR, whatever - other than that it will. I started my investing life just before the oil-war crash of 1973/4 (and if anyone thinks this is bad, you ain't seen nothing!) and have been through many recessions. They all bounce back at some point. I suppose there is a difference this time in that a Government has never shut down the entire economy by decree and there must be companies that won't survive that, but on the whole I take the view that this is bargain-hunting territory.
Btw, I probably would have reinvested the lot like you - as I did with some of the proceeds of the other takeovers - but the EIG payment only appeared in my account on 17 March. Phew! Given the mayhem in the market, I had a fleeting fear it may not turn up. |
Jeffian - you timed those disposals very well - although I take your point that they weren't planned! I also benefitted from the GNK takeover and the large capital distribution from FSTA around the same time. Unfortunately, I re-invested the lot!Glad to hear that Mr Tuppen is alive and kicking. He made a nice profit for me up to the financial crash, the margins at EI were astonishing! (Property company rather than a pub company?) But like all good things, it couldnt last. You did well to be a shareholder at the end and benefit from the big rise before the takeover.How do you see the pub industry coming out of the Coronavirus crisis? Difficult to see a clear picture with the bad news from the shutdown being counterbalanced, to some extent, by the Govt support announced at the same time.I am keeping my powder dry for the time being. Despite the big rise today at FOUR, I suspect it might well head south again next week. |
That is quite a bounce for a company that lost 60% of its usual income over a 3 day period. Presumably income will be much lower imminently. |
Then you haven't been paying attention, glenowen! (1324, 1339, 1543, 1546 etc)
Yes, I'm like a kid in the sweetshop at the moment. As a result of unforeseen takeovers of some of my largest holdings (RPC, GNK, EIG) I find myself 70% in cash.
Ted Tuppen is thriving. We meet most years in Switzerland skiing. |
 Again, Erogenous, many thanks for your informed comment. It is good to see some helpful information on these boards from someone who knows what they are talking about. I used to view and comment on the JDW (Wetherspoon)board but became totally fed up by individuals who hi-jacked it to rant on about Brexit and what a hero Tim Martin (the chairman) was. I don't care what peoples' politics are, so long as they can comment sensibly on a company and its business prospects.
In that vein, welcome Jeffian - haven't seen you on a non-pub/brewing board before!
I have every intention of hoovering up some shares in JDW very soon, as the bottom cannot be far off. FOUR is, like JDW I think, a very-well managed company with good long-term prospects and we might not be far off the bottom here either. I don't think I will catch rock bottom and I don't want to buy and then see the share price halve again - which might easily happen.
I think its a "watch and wait" game at the moment. I hope you invest your EI proceeds well. Whatever happened to Ted Tuppen? |
FOUR is very much on my radar as a buy. I always though it a bit expensive before but it's certainly in range now.
Regarding the statement today, I was interested in the glimpse it gave into the wider picture -
"In February 2020, at the height of the COVID-19 disruption in China, this part of the supply chain was a major concern. However, the timing of the inventory cycle meant that our domestic suppliers have been able to fulfil our customer orders since then. At the same time, we have closely monitored a substantial recovery of production capacity in Chinese factories."
My wife accuses me of being a "denier" because I think this is all a huge and damaging over-reaction (AIDS, SARS, Ebola....where are they now?). If China is the template then a bounceback after a few months is a possibility. All those empty shelves to be filled..... |
Thanks for your sensible and enlightening reply, Erogenous. I have quite a big holding in FOUR and, unlike several other shares I hold, I havent sold any of them during the past few weeks. So the relentless decline in share price has been painful. But the trading statement this morning is reassuring, particularly the highlighting of the fact that they have zero debt. So, notwithstanding the short-term downturn, I believe the longer term future looks good for FOUR.Time to steady the nerves and hold! |
The presentation available from
is helpful.
Slide 5 of the 2020 presentation shows a cost breakdown. It will be interesting to know the extent to which they can flex their costs. |
Inventories was only $11m at year end, so doubt that will be life threatening.
Agree re the mark down |
Running into a perfect storm - Had not spotted this company might be classified as in the entertainment and hospitality business - Both of which are in total meltdown thanks to the virus.
Could well be massive anticipatory mark down this morning. |
Dont know why FOUR is being hammered more that the average mid -size stock. It's hardly as if the business will be adversely impacted by bans on public gatherings and such like. |
yes very good.i bought back in this morning as sold all my holdings last week.worked out well |
Appears to be a good set of results. Looking for the bad news but havn't found it yet. |
lots of stocks are interesting now its just which one to buy more of think i'll wait till the results next week see what the divi is and the numbers oh and the outlook can't see a bit of flu effecting their business |
getting interesting at this level |
Very good indeed, imo. |
Update concise and encouraging as normal |
been large chunks of stock changing hands the past few weeks yet not one rns |
Strange price movement. Perhaps a buying opportunity - or wait and see? |
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