1spatial Share Discussion Threads

[sjmarvel] 31/1/2023 17:44

Be aware: 1spa 911 offsetting will be finished when Apple & Google have their 911 solution mandated through Congress this year.

[maddox] 24/1/2023 23:59

Hi Robsy,

Yes, I do the same - write myself an investment justification and plan. I initially bought last July after talking to Clare and Team at Mello Chiswick Conf. I've been following them for several years but bought-in on the traction they are getting in the US - NG911 - a six out of six win rate I recall. I like a cookie cutter proposition. Also, I think they've got the strategy right - build a Cloud-based SaaS business with high recurring revenue. They are currently valued at x2 revenue - but once profitable, growing and margins improving - easily x4 - my share price target is 100p.

The 1Streetworks does look good if you run some scenarios but as I said above - market disrupting propositions usually take longer than one would expect to breakthrough - no matter how persuasive the proposition seems. If you prepare Traffic Management Applications for a living at £30 per hour - something that take 2 mins - is going to turn you into a luddite. However, should be high margin and thus a low revenue threshold to achieve breakeven and is thus low risk.

The other presentations from the Smarter Data Conference are also instructive. The geospatial data field is clearly becoming mainstream. There are a number of important themes presented that will drive future growth - not least in the transition to Carbon Neutral. All this further supports the investment thesis but I do like to see a clear path to cash breakeven to de-risk the investment case.

Regards Maddox

[robsy2] 24/1/2023 11:19

Hi Maddox
Interesting what you write.
I don-t have any industry knowledge but attach the notes I write to myself before I invest in anything. I do this to try and get a bit more discipline into my investing process.It helps me to know why , or sometimes why the hell, i bought something!
I hope you find it interesting. It is all a learning journey so i am happy to have it all critiqued.

" SPA has developed a software app they call TMPA which stands for Traffic Management Plan Automation. They have been developing this for the last 4 years. It automates the whole traffic management plan process according to “The Red Book”, which is the name given to the permission process and compliance requirements that need to be adhered to when anyone does any road works in the UK.

SPA’s tech means that a compliant application to do road works, complete with accurate location of affected underground assets, road redirection plans, signage requirements, road signage, traffic cones, stop & slow down signs , redirection signs etc. and notification requirements for service outages, can all be generated in seconds!

This is not a trivial matter because apparently there are 2.5m cases of minor roadworks in the UK and each has to be done in compliance with The Red Book. To date, the generation of the required Red Book compliant traffic management plan has been a very time-consuming, non-automated process with total industry costs estimated at around 500m GBP a year.

The promise is that SPA’s TMPA product makes traffic plans 100% automated, so that within 30 seconds of inputting data, the user will have a fully compliant plan with a map and complete spec for the job.

TMPA could be massive.

In a recent shareholder presentation, CEO Claire Milverton, suggested that the TMPA project could get them a 30% market share of the 2.5m cases of roadworks in the UK at 100 GBP a plan with 80%+ margins.

In the latest Investor Meet presentation. Claire suggests that with the TMPA project they would be looking to get 30% of the 2.5m cases of roadworks in the UK at 100 GBP a plan with 80% margins within 3 years.

If so, then it is truly exciting to think that within 3 years, we could be getting turnover of 750,000 x 100 quid a year = That is 75 million GBP a year of additional turnover. Is that a real aspiration that is thought-out , being maybe shadow budgeted for, or is it an aspiration at this stage? I asked more questions but got no answers.

I am trying to work out how realistic is this possible 75 million GBP turnover?

How would that business process look? What needs to happen? What is the time frame? What are the obstacles that need to be dealt with to get there ? What is in the budget to back up the aspiration?

OTS of ‘transformational growth opportunities’, also in the latest Investor Meet presentation, Claire estimated the scale of the market opportunity in USA for NG911 as being worth 1m USD per state, so that is 50m USD ARR and NG911 for the 23,000 counties and cities as being in the region of 100m USD ARR . These are also big figures.



Maybe generating 75m GBP a year at 80%+ margins is wildly optimistic? If they charged a mere 25 GBP a plan (the company talk of 100 GBP a plan) and processed just 10% ( not 30%) of the 2.5m market at 25 GBP a go, with an 80% margin, then the company would still generate 5million GBP a year of gross profit.

To put the 5 million into a context, in the year to 01-2023, SPA plc hopes to generate total gross profits of 15m GBP a year, so any movement towards getting an additional 5m GBP gross profit from Traffic Management would be very positive and this could be just the beginning. In her own words, the CEO says that “ contractors and utilities are crying out for a solution like this” and she “doesn’t think it will take long to get to 20-25% of the TMPA market” and that they are “strongly excited about the opportunity”.

In short, they are confident they could get to a 30% share over the next 3 years- if it works of course... Do the math as they say!

OK I’ll do it!

The Blue Sky scenario with the TMPA product would be to achieve a 30% market share at 100 GBP a time with 80% margins by year end 31.01.26 (FY26).

What would that look like? If SPA achieved 10% in FY24, 20% in FY25 and reached full 30% by FY26, very roughly speaking and with all other factors held constant, we would be talking about gross income as follows;
The table below hasn't cut and pasted well but the titles are;


- Year End;
- Additional Gross contribution GBP (millions)
-Projected Gross Margins
-Total gross profit
-Estimated EPS
-Margins at 8%( i.e. modest)
-With 111m shares in issue Projected share price at PER 15
-% Upside from Upside from the current share price of 50p

31.01.24 10% x 2.5m x100 GBP x 80% 20m 16m as per broker 36m 4.1p 62p +24%
31.01.25 20% x 2.5m x100 GBP x 80% 40m 17m ? 57m 6.1p 91p +82%
31.01.26 30% x 2.5m x100 GBP x 80% 60m 18m ? 88m 8.2p 123p +146%

The above scenario is obviously very much a “back of an envelope” type projection, but it is based on reasonable assumptions regarding margins, growth and possible valuations and makes no reference to the NG911 opportunity, which is potentially bigger and only plugs in modest growth across the remaining business ex TMPA.

The upside is potentially transformational and the bottom line here is that if absolutely nothing comes of the TMPA opportunity, the business still looks set to grow nicely elsewhere.

Can they do it? They think so and have been trialling TMPA with one major roadworks contractor since October 22, so things are on the move.

They are first to market with a TMPA and it could be seen very well by all parties.

Potentially this is deliverable in a relatively hands-off, high-margin way.

No-one else is doing this because no-one else has the technical capability and the data sets to attempt it. The opportunity is there in front of them and one imagines that contractors in the infrastructure space could be interested in paying for something that saves them money.

It could be that TMPA or variants could be applicable in other parts of the World where SPA has a presence e.g. Ireland

[robsy2] 11/1/2023 16:14

Interesting demonstration of the 1streetworks software in action.



the audience of geospatial professionals actually applauded at the end.

[robsy2] 06/1/2023 11:11

Looks like we're seeing a bit of buying here….and a bit more.

[robsy2] 30/11/2022 21:01

Very interesting. Thanks for posting that. I bought in partly because of the potential that this product has.

[maddox] 29/11/2022 16:51

Sounds like that they are very pleased with the market reception to their innovative traffic management solution:



Anyone in the utility industry wish to comment?

[gopher] 12/10/2022 22:20

The market cap of £50ml puts them of the bottom rung of ladder of institutional investment interest. If they continue to deliver growth I would be optimistic

[togglebrush] 29/9/2022 16:01

Investor Meet Company Presentation

A presentation to retail investors will be hosted on Thursday, 29 September 2022 at 4pm via the Investor Meet Company platform. Questions can be submitted pre-event via the Investor Meet Company dashboard up until 9.00am the day before the meeting or at any time during the live presentation.

Investors can sign up to Investor Meet Company for free via:

[flc] 28/9/2022 08:59

By the looks of the share price then not very much! This should be trading at a much higher price but it's going to need a bomb under it to get it moving. Baffled, what's not to like?

[maddox] 28/9/2022 08:39

Any clue as to what 'management expectations' are?

[togglebrush] 28/9/2022 07:27

Ppresentation to retail investors will be hosted on Thursday, 29 September
2022 at 4pm via the Investor Meet Company platform. Questions can be
submitted pre-event via the Investor Meet Company dashboard up until 9.00am
the day before the meeting or at any time during the live presentation.

Investors can sign up to Investor Meet Company for free via:


(

[togglebrush] 28/9/2022 07:06

Overview ______________H1 2023 highlights

Group revenue up 11% driven by growth in recurring revenue:

o 18% increase in recurring revenue to £6.6m (H1 2022: £5.6m),
representing 47% of total revenue (H1 2022: 45%)

o 67% increase in Term Licences revenue to £1.7m (H1 2022: £1.0m)

Annualised Recurring Revenue ("ARR") up 29%:

o ARR* up 29% to £15.2m (H1 2022: £11.8m at constant currency)

o 115% increase in Term Licences ARR* to £5.2m (H1 2022: £2.4m at
constant currency)

Profit before tax of £0.3m (H1 2022: loss of £0.3m)

Group operational highlights

Significant new customer wins, including contracts with High Speed Two (HS2) and a European Aerospace company

Planned launch of multi-tenancy SaaS-based solutions in H2, including Next Generation 9-1-1 (NG911) and Traffic Management Plan. Automation, expected to provide significant future growth opportunities

Post period-end secured two significant contracts with the State of Arkansas and Eastern Transportation Coalition, demonstrating further US momentum

Solid progress made developing an ESG strategy on which the Board
plans to provide an update in the 2023 Annual report

Outlook

Trading in the second half has started positively and the Board remains confident in delivering results for FY 2023 in line with management's expectations

[w t tutte] 20/9/2022 00:10

@mginvestor .... thank you for this. How strange, when I use your link I see everything that should be there but when I go in normally through the website I get a completely different investor page and there is no Aim Rule 26 tab or information.

[mginvestor] 19/9/2022 17:54

W T Tutte, what exactly is missing?

[emnetglug] 05/9/2022 16:10

I think the analogy of a beach ball being held underwater works nicely here. As each new contract is signed the ball inflates and becomes harder to hold down and we have been held down now for a couple of years. Won't be long before this rises to the surface finally imo.

[horseyphil] 05/9/2022 10:47

Not even sure that good interims will move the share price

But if they continue to win US contracts, and with the strength of the USD, it would be surprising if there isn't a bid for the company in the next 12 months.

The real appeal here is the patented technology and the potential to roll it out globally.

[flc] 05/9/2022 09:41

Good news but it's just a shame that these announcements have minimal impact on the share price Roll on 28th and interims.

[togglebrush] 05/9/2022 07:15

Two new contracts in USA
'
a US$1.2m seven-year contract with the State of Arkansas
for the eighth US State to select the solution.
'
Eastern Transportation Coalition (ETC), a partnership of 18 US east coast States and Washington DC, for conflation solutions within its Traffic Data Marketplace (TDM), estimated to be up to US$15m over eight years.

[robsy2] 01/9/2022 06:57

I have no idea. Saw them presenting at mello and the company looks interesting.i have a small stake and note the directors have bought shares of late, and i mean actually bought them in the market, which is quite refreshing to see.
What they offer looks like a good idea and worthwhile and nicely niche with lots of scope to add clients. They are focussed on adding subscription income with long-term contracts, so maybe short term bookable sales are slowing at the expense of longer term annuity type income. I am waiting on the results before i make any more moves.