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Guardian Stockbrokers Key Economic News Friday 1 July 2016

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The key points from today’s economic news, brought to you by Guardian Stockbrokers.

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BoE’s Carney hints at interest rate cut

The Bank of England (BoE) Governor, Mark Carney, warned that the uncertainty surrounding UK’s plan to leave the European Union (EU) would likely weigh on the nation’s economic growth and that further interest-rate cut and other measures will be needed. However, he expressed confidence in UK’s ability to adapt to a future outside the EU.

UK total business investment declined in 1Q 2016

The final total business investment recorded a drop of 0.60% in the UK on a quarterly basis, in 1Q 2016. In the prior quarter, total business investment had registered a drop of 2.00%. The preliminary figures had indicated a fall of 0.50%.

UK index of services rose more than expected in April

In April, on a MoM basis, the index of services climbed 0.60% in the UK, more than market expectations for an advance of 0.20%. In the prior month, the index of services had registered a revised drop of 0.30%.

UK current account deficit dropped in 1Q 2016

Current account deficit in the UK dropped to £32.60 billion in 1Q 2016, compared to a revised current account deficit of £34.00 billion in the previous quarter. Markets were anticipating the nation to post a current account deficit of £28.00 billion.

UK GDP rose as expected in 1Q 2016

On a QoQ basis, in the UK, the final gross domestic product (GDP) advanced 0.40% in 1Q 2016, at par with market expectations. GDP had recorded a rise of 0.60% in the previous quarter. The preliminary figures had also recorded a rise of 0.40%.

UK GDP rose as expected in 1Q 2016

In 1Q 2016, on an annual basis, the final GDP climbed 2.00% in the UK, in line with market expectations. The preliminary figures had also indicated a rise of 2.00%. In the prior quarter, GDP had advanced 2.10%.

UK total business investment slid in 1Q 2016

The final total business investment in the UK registered a drop of 0.80% in 1Q 2016, on a YoY basis. In the prior quarter, total business investment had advanced 3.00%. The preliminary figures had recorded a fall of 0.40%.

UK index of services rose more than expected in April

In the UK, the index of services climbed 0.50% in April, on a MoM basis, more than market expectations for an advance of 0.40%. In the January-March 2016 period, the index of services had registered a rise of 0.60%.

Euro-zone CPI rose more than expected in June

The flash core consumer price index (CPI) in the Euro-zone rose 0.90% on a YoY basis in June, higher than market expectations for a rise of 0.80%. In the previous month, the core CPI had risen 0.80%.

Euro-zone CPI advanced surprisingly in June

On an annual basis, the preliminary CPI in the Euro-zone unexpectedly climbed 0.10% in June, higher than market expectations for a steady reading. The CPI had registered a drop of 0.10% in the previous month.

German retail sales rose more than expected in May

On a YoY basis, retail sales in Germany recorded a rise of 2.60% in May, more than market expectations for an advance of 2.50%. In the previous month, retail sales had registered a revised rise of 2.70%.

German unemployment rate remained steady in June

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained steady at 6.10% in Germany, in June. Market expectation was for unemployment rate to record a steady reading.

German number of people unemployed dropped more than expected in June

The number of people unemployed in Germany dropped 6.00 K in June, compared to a drop of 11.00 K in the previous month. Markets were expecting the number of people unemployed to ease 5.00 K.

German retail sales advanced more than expected in May

In May, retail sales rose 0.90% on a MoM basis in Germany, higher than market expectations for a rise of 0.60%. Retail sales had recorded a revised drop of 0.30% in the prior month.

French EU normalised CPI advanced as expected in June

The preliminary EU normalised CPI in France recorded a rise of 0.20% on a monthly basis in June, compared to an advance of 0.50% in the prior month. Market expectation was for EU normalised CPI to rise 0.20%.

French CPI (ex-tobacco) rose as expected in June

In June, on a MoM basis, the flash CPI (ex-tobacco) registered a rise of 0.20% in France, compared to a rise of 0.40% in the previous month. Market anticipation was for the CPI (ex-tobacco) to rise 0.20%.

French PPI advanced in May

In France, the producer price index (PPI) registered a rise of 0.30% in May on a monthly basis. In the previous month, the PPI had dropped by a revised 0.40%.

French consumer spending surprisingly fell in May

On a monthly basis in May, consumer spending recorded an unexpected drop of 0.70% in France, less than market expectations for an unchanged reading. In the prior month, consumer spending had dropped 0.10%.

Italian PPI recorded a rise in May

On a monthly basis, the PPI rose 0.70% in May, in Italy. The PPI had registered a drop of 0.90% in the previous month.

Italian deficit to GDP (YTD) advanced in 1Q 2016

Deficit to GDP (YTD) advanced to 4.70% in Italy, in 1Q 2016. Deficit to GDP (YTD) had registered a level of 2.60% in the prior quarter.

Italian CPI rose less than expected in June

The flash CPI advanced 0.10% on a MoM basis in Italy in June, less than market expectations for a rise of 0.20%. In the prior month, the CPI had risen 0.30%.

Italian EU normalised CPI rose less than expected in June

On a MoM basis, the flash EU normalised CPI in Italy advanced 0.10% in June, lower than market expectations for an advance of 0.20%. In the prior month, the EU normalised CPI had advanced 0.30%.

Italian PPI recorded a drop in May

The PPI recorded a drop of 4.20% on an annual basis in Italy, in May. In the prior month, the PPI had fallen 4.50%.

Spanish current account surplus widened in April

Current account surplus in Spain widened to €2.60 billion in April. Spain had posted a revised current account surplus of €0.90 billion in the previous month.

Swiss KOF economic barometer recorded a rise in June

The KOF economic barometer rose to a level of 102.40 in June, in Switzerland, compared to a revised level of 101.80 in the prior month. Markets were expecting the KOF economic barometer to climb to a level of 102.60.

US Chicago Fed purchasing managers index registered a rise in June

The Chicago Fed purchasing managers index registered a rise to 56.80 in the US, in June, higher than market expectations of an advance to a level of 51.00. The Chicago Fed purchasing managers index had recorded a reading of 49.30 in the prior month.

US initial jobless claims climbed in the last week

In the US, the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims registered a rise to 268.00 K in the week ended 25 June 2016, compared to a revised reading of 258.00 K in the previous week. Markets were expecting initial jobless claims to climb to 267.00 K.

US continuing jobless claims declined surprisingly in the last week

The seasonally adjusted continuing jobless claims eased unexpectedly to a level of 2120.00 K in the US, in the week ended 18 June 2016, lower than market expectations of an advance to a level of 2151.00 K. Continuing jobless claims had recorded a revised reading of 2140.00 K in the prior week.

Canadian industrial product price index rose more than expected in May

The industrial product price index in Canada recorded a rise of 1.10% on a MoM basis in May, more than market expectations for an advance of 0.30%. In the prior month, the industrial product price index had dropped 0.50%.

Canadian raw material price index advanced more than expected in May

On a MoM basis, the raw material price index in Canada advanced 6.70% in May, higher than market expectations for an advance of 5.00%. The raw material price index had advanced 0.70% in the prior month.

Japanese Tankan large all industry capex rose more than expected in 2Q 2016

In 2Q 2016, on a QoQ basis, Tankan large all industry capex in Japan recorded a rise of 6.20%, compared to a fall of 0.90% in the previous quarter. Markets were anticipating Tankan large all industry capex to climb 5.30%.

Japanese National CPI ex-food, energy advanced as expected in May

In May, National CPI ex-food, energy recorded a rise of 0.60% in Japan on an annual basis, compared to an advance of 0.70% in the prior month. Markets were expecting National CPI ex-food, energy to advance 0.60%.

Japanese Tankan large manufacturing outlook index recorded an unexpected rise in 2Q 2016

In 2Q 2016, the Tankan large manufacturing outlook index registered an unexpected rise to 6.00 in Japan, higher than market expectations of a steady reading. The Tankan large manufacturing outlook index had registered a reading of 3.00 in the previous quarter.

Japanese housing starts advanced more than expected in May

In Japan, housing starts climbed 9.80% in May, on a YoY basis, higher than market expectations for an advance of 4.80%. In the prior month, housing starts had advanced 9.00%.

Japanese annualised housing starts registered an unexpected rise in May

In Japan, the annualised housing starts rose unexpectedly to a level of 1.02 million units in May, higher than market expectations of a drop to a level of 0.97 million units. In the previous month, the annualised housing starts had registered a level of 1.00 million units.

Japanese National CPI ex-fresh food declined as expected in May

National CPI ex-fresh food eased 0.40% in Japan, on an annual basis in May, at par with market expectations. In the prior month, National CPI ex-fresh food had registered a drop of 0.30%.

Japanese job to applicant ratio climbed in May

Job to applicant ratio recorded a rise to 1.36 in May, in Japan, compared to market expectations of a rise to 1.35. Job to applicant ratio had registered a level of 1.34 in the prior month.

Japanese unemployment rate remained flat in May

In May, unemployment rate remained flat at a level of 3.20% in Japan, at par with market expectations.

Japanese construction orders climbed in May

In Japan, construction orders climbed 34.50% on an annual basis, in May. In the prior month, construction orders had registered a drop of 16.90%.

Japanese Tankan non-manufacturing outlook index remained flat in 2Q 2016

In 2Q 2016, the Tankan non-manufacturing outlook index remained flat at a level of 17.00 in Japan, at par with market expectations.

Japanese national CPI fell less than expected in May

In May, the national CPI in Japan, fell 0.40% on a YoY basis, less than market expectations for a fall of 0.50%. The national CPI had registered a drop of 0.30% in the previous month.

Japanese manufacturing PMI recorded a rise in June

The final manufacturing PMI in Japan recorded a rise to 48.10 in June. Manufacturing PMI had registered a level of 47.70 in the previous month. The preliminary figures had recorded a rise to 47.80.

Japanese household spending declined as expected in May

In May, household spending in Japan slid 1.10% on an annual basis, compared to a fall of 0.40% in the previous month. Market expectation was for household spending to ease 1.10%.

Japanese Tankan large manufacturing index steadied in 2Q 2016

In 2Q 2016, the Tankan large manufacturing index remained unchanged at a level of 6.00 in Japan, higher than market expectations of a fall to a level of 4.00.

Japanese Tokyo CPI fell more than expected in June

In June, Tokyo CPI eased 0.50% on an annual basis in Japan, compared to a similar fall in the prior month. Markets were expecting Tokyo CPI to ease 0.40%.

Japanese Tankan non-manufacturing index declined in 2Q 2016

The Tankan non-manufacturing index in Japan fell to a level of 19.00 in 2Q 2016, in line with market expectations. The Tankan non-manufacturing index had recorded a level of 22.00 in the prior quarter.

Japanese Tokyo CPI excluding food and energy rose as expected in June

In June, on a YoY basis, Tokyo CPI excluding food and energy registered a rise of 0.40% in Japan, at par with market expectations. In the previous month, Tokyo CPI excluding food and energy had advanced 0.50%.

Japanese Tokyo CPI excluding fresh food dropped as expected in June

On a YoY basis in June, Tokyo CPI excluding fresh food eased 0.50% in Japan, in line with market expectations. Tokyo CPI excluding fresh food had registered a similar fall in the prior month.

Chinese NBS non-manufacturing PMI advanced in June

The NBS non-manufacturing PMI in China rose to a level of 53.70 in June, compared to a revised level of 53.10 in the prior month.

Chinese Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI index slid unexpectedly in June

Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI index in China eased unexpectedly to a level of 48.60 in June, compared to a level of 49.20 in the previous month. Market expectation was for Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI index to record a steady reading.

Chinese NBS manufacturing PMI declined in June

In June, the NBS manufacturing PMI in China eased to 50.00, compared to a level of 50.10 in the previous month. Markets were anticipating the NBS manufacturing PMI to fall to a level of 50.00.

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