Foreign Exchange

Weekly COT Report – 29th April 2019 VIX net-short exposure hits an all-time record EUR traders extend net-short exposure to their most bearish level since December 2016. GBP flips back to net-short after a 1-week hiatus to the long side NZD net-short exposure is its most bearish level this year           […]

Bruised and battered at 22-month lows, Euro could be in the need of a sympathy bounce before losses continue. If US GDP allows… A slew of weak data from Europe has continued to weigh on the Euro, although it was weak German IFO data on Wednesday which was the straw that broke the camel’s back […]

It’s been a big 24-hours for the greenback which saw the US dollar index break to a near-2 year high. Whilst EUR/USD will likely temp bears below 1.1180 and AUD/USD appears ready to crack 70c, it was USD/CHF which led the stampede by several days. And, with it having the best trend structure and least […]

Whilst NZD/JPY appears to be leading the way lower, NZD/CHF looks to be carving out a similar path. Bearish momentum has picked up on NZD/JPY since the 75.96 high (lower high) and, whilst prices have stalled around 73.83 support, but we suspect further losses could materialise following a minor pullback. Keep in mind that news […]

With the US dollar contemplating a breakout and BOC unlikely to provide a hawkish surprise, we’re looking for USD/CAD to break above its March high. We head into today’s meeting with little expectation for BOC to shift from their dovish stance. Whilst employment data has been one of the better economic performers for Canada, it […]

Australia’s Inflation appears to have left the building for today’s CPI report. With headline data missing expectations and moving further away from the target band, rate cut-calls are likely on the rise. And May could be a live meeting. In February, the RBA downgraded Q2 CPI and trimmed mean to 2% (2.25% prior), and for […]

NZD/CAD is testing key support of a 5-month double top pattern. Given the size of the prior swings within its downtrend, this could be a pair well worth monitoring for a major break lower over the coming week/s. Seasonally, April and May tend to be bearish months for NZD/CAD and price action is doing its […]

Whilst Australian employment held up, it doesn’t let inflation off the hook as a weak print tomorrow could see rate cut calls resurface. We’ve seen a few mixed messages from RBA of late. On the 10th of April, Guy Debelle sent AUD briefly higher when he reiterated higher growth expectations and that the RBA does […]

USD/JPY is consolidating near the March highs, with a potential inverted head and shoulders pattern still in play. If successful, the pattern projects an approximate target near the November highs, although 113 (psychological round number) and the 113.70 high make suitable, interim target. However, whilst price action has held above the neckline, in an ideal […]

A summary of the weekly Commitment of Traders Report (COT) from CFTC to show market positioning among large speculators. As of Tuesday the 16th of April: Traders were net-long the US dollar by $28.7bn, the highest level since the end of January. GBP flipped to net long for the first time since June 2018. Improved […]