USDJPY Fundamental & Technical Analysis (April 12, 2013)

The news regarding the economy in Japan, have not been very good and that reason has led to sharply devalue the yen against the U.S. dollar, in order to help “recover” the Japanese economy in the medium term.

The USDJPY has been consolidating in recent days, after having had significant increases, leading the USDJPY to be in extreme overbought levels. For the USDJPY may go downward (in the short term), would have to make a breakout of support at the psychological level of 99.00, only to fall to where is located the 200 day moving average (about 98.00 psychological level). On the other hand, if the USDJPY manages to make a breakout of resistance at the psychological level of 100.00, could rise to the level of 100.45, but it is unlikely in the short term, because this pair is very overbought.

The MACD indicator is moving into negative territory, which could support a possible correction in the primary trend of USDJPY.

In our fundamental outlook for the session today at 04:10 GMT, BOJ Gov’s Kuroda speaks and that speech can calm a little turbulence surrounding the yen currency. Also, we should pay attention to the data to be published today in USA. At 13:30 GMT, will be published the Core Retail Sales (Previous: 1.0% / Forecast: -0.1%), PPI (Previous: 0.7% / Forecast: -0.2%), Retail Sales (Previous 1.1% / Forecast: 0.0 %), at 14:55 GMT, Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment (Previous: 78.6 / Forecast: 79.1). If all current readings become higher than the forecast, the USDJPY could make upward movements. Also, pay attention to the speech of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke at 17:30 GMT, whose speech may be somewhat optimistic for the U.S. dollar.

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