I3 Energy Share Discussion Threads

[tournesol] 06/5/2024 06:04

Alright Tony. I take your point. My apologies. I should have said “that’s the way I see it”.

[tonynorstrom1] 05/5/2024 16:28

"Sorry guys. Buts that’s just the way it is."


Absolutely not - thats nothing more than your opinion. Dont make the mistake of confusing fact with opinion !

[tournesol] 05/5/2024 14:39

For me the problems with Serenity are all about scale and risk. It's a small resource which IMHO is below the threshold of economic viability. It's clearly not well understood which is why the appraisal well missed the target. And it comes with the same categories of potential risk as any other undeveloped resource but without enough critical mass to provide a safety margin. Even if there is some marginal economic viability that would still depend on everything about development going absolutely perfect. And IMHO that doesn't often happen. Even if it does the overheads of the UK team will be drag any returns way down. Much better to write it off and lose the team. Sorry guys. Buts that's just the way it is.

[marvelman] 05/5/2024 11:06

Agree Dinga. Since Serenity was discovered the Tory "government" (which I and many others was stupid enough to vote for) have destroyed our oil assets to such an extent that we will actually have to import the stuff. The lefty socialists headed by a an ex Human Rights lawyer is hellbent on knocking in the final nails before it is dead and buried along with what was a wonderful country to live in. No point in investing in any oil companies here as I am sure the current ones wish they hadn't also. As many people have said Serenity is cash down the drain...Edit.. Rant over

[tonynorstrom1] 05/5/2024 07:03

Fanny,

"Explain why this is down 60%" - I thought I had done that already. OK try this first - get a torch and shine it in one ear and ask bumble to see whether she sees any light coming out of the other ear.

I suspect the answer is yes but in the unlikely event that it is no - then please accept this further clarification:

Share Price down 60%
Estimated EBITDA down over 70% based on june 2022 numbers


good news is that I think the share price is heading up and EBITDA will follow in 2025! And please dont pack up your toys and go back to Mummies when the share price heads up - be sure to drop by now and then to say hello. Now thats a good boy - back in the cage with bumble !

[tonynorstrom1] 05/5/2024 06:45

No I dont share your surprise and I think that 16m bbls (Tain plus serenity) maybe worth pursuing or atleast trying to monetize.

[tournesol] 04/5/2024 22:57

So does anyone else share my surprise at the nugatory scale of Serenity?Do you all think 6 million bbls a prize worth pursuing?

[eringael] 04/5/2024 21:42

https://www.gasalberta.com/gas-market/market-pricesCan't paste the picture but this has Aeco rising to $3 Canadian by end of year and $4 by end 2025, that will help the figures and the shareprice if all goes to plan

[eaglehaslanded] 04/5/2024 14:23

Why quarrel so much, be confident that this is a promising company which has good production of about 20000 boed, and dividends will come. Listen to the last presentation, Simonette is a great field.

[fandagle] 04/5/2024 12:21

Tony! Chillax you little Toad! Explain why this is down 60%? Idiot!

[tonynorstrom1] 04/5/2024 07:47

Fanny you cretin - a couple of points:

1) AndyAberdeen may well be a genuine poster which is why I asked him politly to expand on his comments which he has done - fair enough his opinion and a reasonal response although I have a different view on a couple of the points he made.

2) You are not a genuine poster and never justify your comments - largely because you have nothing between the ears and may well be a £5 / hr boiler room deramper

3) I have addressed the share price fall several times - you just dont have the smarts to understand it.

But just to recap - in June 2022 Oil was $113 / bbl and Gas was around CAD 7.00 / GJ. This coincided with the 32p you keep banging on about. Had these prices persisted for FY 2022 - NOI would have been well in excess of $200m. Contrast that to the situation now with Gas at CAD 1.30 and Oil at $80 and NOI expected to be in the $80m - $85m range.

Now I know you didnt pass O Level maths, but had you even learnt the 10x table - you would understand these numbers which you dont - but let me draw a picture for you :

Had the pricing in June 2022 remained:

1)Dividends would have been tripple if not more than they are now.
2)Debt zero (which it is now by the way but not later in the year)
3)A Capex program of $70m or more funded entirely from CF no debt.

Now climb back into your cage with bumble you horrible little cretin - you add zero value here

[tonynorstrom1] 04/5/2024 07:09

AberdeenAndy,

responding to your questions

1) I'm a holder

2) I think they have optimized their drilling - 8 wells are Oil, 7 are liquids rich gas. Liquids can include condensate that typically trade at a premium to Oil. They also added that if Gas did not strenghen later in the year as expected, they could switch to more Oil. In another part of the presentation Majid highlighted that some Gas wells can produce more cash flow than Oil wells - obviously subject to pricing at the time.

3) Without going back and checking - I believe the reference to "surprise" was the size of capex program and not the Oil/Gas split. I think everyone would expect them to drill the most economic wells whether they be gas or oil.

4) Its possible that Gas (or oil for that matter)may drop in the short term affecting share price There coud be other unexpected events such as wild fires and production curtailments, but ignoring these, Gas prices should improve in the later part of the year and the share price with it.

5) Ryan Heath and Majid highlighted that they traded at about 55% of PDP whereas peers were trading at around PDP. So with a bit of luck and solid execution - the risk is skewed to the upside imo but everyone needs to do the research and make up their own minds.

[aberdeenandy] 03/5/2024 23:18

Tonynorstrom

It was the surprise that they haven’t maximised oil drilling in 2024 with prices relatively strong.

I think someone in the presentation said that the “industry was also surprised”. Maybe he meant the market.

Anyway. I like other things but am currently happy to watch and see which way the share price goes short term. My instincts say it may drop.

Are you a holder?

[tonynorstrom1] 03/5/2024 16:37

AberdeenAndy,

Plesae highlight what you think the negatives are - it all seemed pretty positive to me but im interested to hear what you think was negative / flimsy ?

"Even GGG on LSE said that it could go down to 9p. I’m going to watch."

GGG has just admitted to losing a six figure sum on DELT & I3E - so hats off to him for fronting up. I have no clue what you are talking about - please explain?

[swanvesta] 03/5/2024 16:29

Re capital, they pointed out that the old debt arrangement demanded a $25m repayment this year. So the cash released there, added to the amount raised from the royalty sale, is what has enabled the new capex budget.

[swanvesta] 03/5/2024 16:23

AA, what I heard was that they needed a firmer capital position before committing to any drilling. The other important factor was that it's early days for their oil assets - they are still appraising/assessing reservoir and well parameters so that they can plan wells that will perform optimally. They indicated that planning phase was now complete or near complete.

[aberdeenandy] 03/5/2024 14:46

Hi Guys


I keep an eye on this from afar and have listened to yesterdays presentation. There are positives and negatives.

One of the comments I was not so sure about was the young guy Ryan Heath saying “as much as I hate killing time in 2024 we have now missed the drilling window etc etc.”

I can’t get my head round why they decided not to push oil this year. They said “we were busy on other things”

It all sounds a bit flimsy which is why I’m scratching my head on whether or not to invest.

Sure there could be some disposals this year but 2024 now seems a busted flush on core activity/production so the share price might drift particularly early next week when today’s dividend reinvestment won’t prop things up.

Even GGG on LSE said that it could go down to 9p. I’m going to watch.

Good luck though.

[fandagle] 03/5/2024 14:43

Tiiiiiimmmmbbbbeeeeerrrrrr

[fandagle] 03/5/2024 14:36

Don’t see Gooday proof of re-investing! What about Tony (The Rat)? Xongo & Gen? Your all full if it! lol

[fandagle] 03/5/2024 14:31

Looks as if folk have seen the light and investing Divi elsewhere!

[fandagle] 03/5/2024 14:06

Not much buying today! What happened to the Divi-buy backs?