Hipgnosis Songs Share Discussion Threads

[nil of] 25/4/2024 16:38

I hope your right and I would expect Blackstone to come out with something next week

[epo001] 25/4/2024 11:31

£1.10 is $1.38 at the moment. It is still a two horse race and I will sell at £1.10 or better but have a 3 month limit sell at £1.19 just in case...

[edwardt] 25/4/2024 10:38

Stick by my £1.10

[nil of] 24/4/2024 23:25

Concord playing a brilliant game. One cent above and re set those irrevocables to the new price plus 10%. Go on blackstone can you face having your business stolen off you by Apollo? Two heavy weights and this is now down to their two CEOs. My guess blackstone have one more price left in them maybe at 130 cents. I think I can smell rob Naylor’s cigar….(the new chairman of Hipgnosis).well played.

[rambutan2] 24/4/2024 22:58

And back to you Blackstone...

INCREASED CONCORD OFFER
Under the terms of the Increased Concord Offer, Hipgnosis Shareholders will be entitled to receive:

US$1.25 in cash for each Scheme Share

The Increased Concord Offer values the entire issued and to be issued ordinary share capital of Hipgnosis at approximately US$1,511.5 million. The Increased Concord Offer represents an increase of approximately 7.8 per cent to the offer value under the Original Concord Offer.

The Increased Concord Offer is equivalent to £1.01 per Share based on the Increased Offer Announcement Exchange Rate.

[elbrus55] 23/4/2024 16:48

Also the option is with HSM. Mr Mercuriadis has a minority shareholding in that so they Blackstone may prefer to buy the assets directly if they can.HSM/Mercuriadis would not have the cash to exercise the call option without Blackstone support.

[elbrus55] 23/4/2024 16:36

It would be cleaner for Blackstone to have an offer agreed and it could prevent costly litigation and legal challenges dragging on for years. The option they hold is to buy the music assets of the company rather than buy the whole company. ( If Blackstone buy the whole company then the litigation evaporates.)The chairman has done a good job in getting his mates at Concord to put in a bid. Otherwise Blackstone could have bought this very cheaply without much challenge.It is all a bit of mess and it was badly structured for shareholders from inception.

[laughton] 23/4/2024 15:42

In which case why start a bidding war or bid direct at all if all they have to do is match any other bids?

Just asking.

[elbrus55] 23/4/2024 15:02

Blackstone are the majority shareholder of HSM and presumably have significant control over it.

[edwardt] 23/4/2024 12:38

Fwiw Spotify raises guidance. No wonder the big boys want in Here

[epo001] 23/4/2024 10:41

That times article is behind a paywall, what's the gist of it?

[laughton] 23/4/2024 10:33

I guess it depends on how hardcore each of the bidders wants to get. Does anyone know whether the "matching offer" rights apply only to "the investment advisor" (Mr Merck) or to anyone that MM feels like passing the rights on to (Blackstone)?

They're clearly not the same entity.

Does the "Investment Advisor" have the money to match the bid(s)?

Laughton (sometime pedant)

[jeffian] 23/4/2024 10:14

That Merck. He's a piece of work, eh?

[elbrus55] 22/4/2024 23:32

Normally Blackstone would be given a deadline of 3 June to make their firm offer. There should be an announcement about this soon.

[typo56] 22/4/2024 15:35

Last week "Mr Market" wasn't factoring in an increased possible offer from Blackstone, even though I think many of us thought it likely. Same could apply now.

However, I think Concord may hold off increasing until Blackstone make a formal offer.

[elbrus55] 22/4/2024 15:35

I avoid limit sales a when this a possibility of a piece of news which could result in a step change in market sentiment and so I avoid leaving them on overnight when there is a bid situation as developments usually occur out of market hours. E.g. considrt if share price is 100p, somebody announces an offer of 110p and you have a long-term limit sale placed at 105p. In this scenario, the share price will jump 10% in a minute or two but you lose half of the economic gain to the man with the quickest finger who takes your sale at 105p.

[elbrus55] 22/4/2024 15:26

Another thing that has been happening is the US treasury yield has been increasing quite rapidly (T10 is 4.63%pa now) - that is going to significantly limit the maximum anybody is going to bid.

[apollocreed1] 22/4/2024 15:16

Blackstone seems to be issuing a threat to the board that they will exercise their option if their offer isn't accepted . But it seems that the Concord offer forced Blackstone to make a higher offer, otherwise any attempt to exercise their option while concord's offer was on the table would have made it clear that they had no interest in protecting their shareholders. It's even possible that the board asked Concord to make their offer while still being certain that Blackstone would have to bid over concord.

[elbrus55] 22/4/2024 15:14

Do Blackstone / HSM have a poison pill in the restricted agreement?If so, it feels like Blackstone will win in the end. It is really helpful that Concord are there to stop them getting it too cheaply, but in the end surely Blackstone will win given they have an unfair advantage . I just wonder what is in it for them? I suppose a below-market transaction is unhelpful for their NAVs / loan covenants.Hope that make sense.M

[epo001] 22/4/2024 14:50

HSM, a non-listed company, issuing a sabre rattling RNS about protecting their contractual rights instead of just ... getting lawyers to assert their contractual rights!

[mighunter] 22/4/2024 14:00

hTTps://news.sky.com/story/kylie-music-label-bmg-in-rival-approach-for-hipgnosis-13120881

[epo001] 22/4/2024 13:52

Inching up today! Have amended my limit sell to 119p for 3 months.

[blackhorse23] 22/4/2024 10:49

Money moving to GNC

[epo001] 22/4/2024 10:10

$1.30 would be about another 5p. My paper losses have halved since Friday, which is nice.

So it looks like there are 2 bidders, we can maybe expect a counter offer from Concord and if so then maybe another offer from Blackstone but it is going to be inching up from here. share price now about £1, it could fall back to 92p, perhaps go up to £1.10 when I'd be in a modest overall profit taking into account dividends.

Edit: If Mr Market was expecting a takeover battle then there would be buying and share price rise in expectation of that. It isn't happening yet so presumably there is no such expectation.

One week ago we'd have been delighted to get out at today's price, is it time to do so?