Hipgnosis Songs Share Discussion Threads

[elbrus55] 19/4/2024 10:15

The offer is worth about 93 - 94p.If nothing unexpected happens then the share price will drift very slowly up from the current level to around the offer value on the execution date. This is the most likely scenario.It is always possible the deal will fail or there is a higher offer.

[epo001] 19/4/2024 09:04

Thank you both. I'm going to put in a 3 month limit sell at 110 and just watch for now.

[feddie] 19/4/2024 08:57

epo001, if the deal closes you will receive cash for your shares at the price set and approved in the Scheme of Arrangement document.

[elbrus55] 19/4/2024 08:56

If it proceeds, then after execution you will get some cash in US dollars. (It is possible there will be a Sterling option but they haven't mentioned this. If you prefer Sterling then it probably better to sell in the market before the execution date to avoid the FX loadings your broker probably charges. There's no rush to do anything now.)

[epo001] 19/4/2024 08:45

What happens to those hanging on if we don't sell and the deal goes through? Do we get forcibly bought out or do our shares become worthless?

[typo56] 18/4/2024 19:47

I'm hanging on too, in the hope a better offer will emerge. I suppose there's always the downside risk of the Concord deal falling through for some reason.

[edwardt] 18/4/2024 18:59

Fwiw I am hanging on - we will find out if blackstone really wants to expand in this asset class or not in the coming days. £1.10 would not be beyond reason imho

[williamcooper104] 18/4/2024 16:31

Which is one of the reasons why CAPM doesn't work

[elbrus55] 18/4/2024 16:23

To be fair this company is a financial asset much more than it is a real business. There are some esoteric risks but there is no risk premium expected on non-correlated risks under basic CAPM theory.If you compare it to the return on longterm government bond (including indexed linked bonds) in recent years it doesn't look quite so bad, even despite the management problems.I mainly bought it to reduce my exposure to equity markets.The fall in value is I guess mainly due to interest rate conditions which is another matter. Happy to be out. Hopefully the acquirer will manage it more competently for their investors.

[cynicalsteve] 18/4/2024 14:51

I sold my holding this morning. The market is pricing this as a done deal. The only obvious danger/opportunity is the GBP/USD exchange rate because the offer is valued in dollars.
Congratulations to AVI, this is the kind of unloved investment they specialise in, their Global Trust (AGT) has 5% of its assets in SONG.
I will watch from the side-lines but hope that I'm not lured in again.

[epo001] 18/4/2024 11:27

A couple of p down on the RNS indicative price of 93.2p.

I think we've been stitched up and may be lucky to get out with this much. Given the price has been agreed then I suppose there is no risk in hanging on for a counter offer. I'd need 110.7p to break even, don't think I'll get it.

So much for uncorrelated investments, uncorrelated to reality!

We're not the first people to be ripped off by music industry sharks, we won't be the last.

[apollocreed1] 18/4/2024 10:29

I'm still down 21% on my original investment. This offer isn't good enough.

[cousinit] 18/4/2024 09:54

The 'come and get me' approach has not done so badly to date!

Clearly a chance, as the key shareholders have indicated they are content to sell at this level, that it might smoke someone else out with a slightly higher bid.

[chopp1] 18/4/2024 08:13

I smell a rat here. The new board appoint a new valuer who comes up with a hugely reduced NAV from the previous valuation, which admittedly may have been overcooked and then Concord suddenly appear on their white horse with a bid 4% above the new NAV. Does anyone else think this is suspicious or am I just paranoid?

[typo56] 18/4/2024 07:49

The more I practise, the more idiotic I get.

[cynicalsteve] 18/4/2024 07:03

One of my best ever investments, a profit was never in doubt. I will just keep telling myself that because the alternative is that I'm a lucky idiot.

[cousinit] 18/4/2024 06:56

Question is, do Blackstone want Hipgnosis (the manager) to quietly disappear given all the hassle?

[cousinit] 18/4/2024 06:55

Feels like there's a chance for a counterbid. Suspect it may only be slightly higher than this, maybe squeeze out another 5p or so in any back and forth.

[typo56] 18/4/2024 06:45

For holders not entirely unexpected, but perhaps quicker than expected. Any chance of a counterbid?

[hohum1] 18/4/2024 06:05

Wow - wasn’t expecting that. Rob Naylor - genius at solving the unsolvable!

[purplepelmets] 15/4/2024 07:15

Hilarious RNS. Share price down la toilette, credibility of the BOD is zero, what should we do? Aha make a diversity hire!!! I give up

[edwardt] 03/4/2024 14:03

spotify to raise prices. a small trickle through to here you would expect.

[laughton] 28/3/2024 12:30

Ooops! Silly me. I got all excited there for a minute.

[unastubbs] 28/3/2024 12:14

I have USD$1.48b/1,209,214,286 shares in issue = USD$1.2239 and divide by $1.261 = NAV 97p

[tiltonboy] 28/3/2024 12:13

Need to knock the debt off...