Hipgnosis Songs Share Discussion Threads

[edwardt] 08/9/2023 07:41

that has got to be a huge positive here. the uk markets see the negatives and the US pick up the value and run with it.

[edwardt] 08/9/2023 07:13

roundhill receives cash bid at 67% premium to undisturbed share price.

[edwardt] 06/9/2023 18:16

Yeah - interesting move - will take time of course but if Spotify follow suit which I see no reason why they won't this should be very good news indeed

[grahamg8] 24/8/2023 17:31

Last year the AGM was 21 September, and the notice for it was issued on 4 August. So we are already overdue. The analyst presentation from 13 July indicates the fragility of the assets. Raising the discount rate by 0.5% costs $280m and a reduction in growth rate of 1% would cost $160m.

More nervous by the day.

[mpage] 23/8/2023 21:20

Apropos of nothing, a company's inability to publish a financial calendar should be taken as a warning sign (to outsiders).

[edwardt] 23/8/2023 19:47

Tick tock - time for a deal to be announced- hopefully soon!

[jeffian] 11/8/2023 10:48

As regulars will know, I'm no fan of this outfit but if disposal is the way forward, existing shareholders (I'm out) may have a ray of hope. The main KPI promoted by management has been the NAV. Although one might question the methodology/capitalisation rates, it does seem to be a standard adopted across this "asset class", so any other fund acquiring these assets would have a vested interest in paying NAV, otherwise they risk undermining their own valuations. This would be particularly pertinent if sold to Blackrock, which shares the same Fund Manager as SONG.

Good luck, all.

[grahamg8] 11/8/2023 07:41

Rambutan and Edwardt I partly agree with your comments. I’ve been ploughing through the full year report, it makes pretty scary reading. They have tried a buy back to get the share price moving, that didn’t work. They are hugely on the defensive over the use of 8.5% discount rate, don’t blame us blame the experts - who we appointed of course. The year end adjustments look very much like massaging the figures to give a rosier result. Consultation with large shareholders certainly seems like an emergency change of course on the way. Announcement ‘well before’ the AGM says to me this month, hold onto your hats. They even worked out the tax charge if all assets were sold, so this looks like a definite option.

I would dearly like SONG to succeed. But from my financial point of view it looks like the share price is about right. Sell at say 20% discount to book, pay off the debt and we get $932m or 75pps. Perhaps they can pull a rabbit out of the hat but we look to be saddled with massive debt and dodgy accounting for a few years yet.
EDIT:
I think I might have been a bit hard on the figures. A recalc says 114pps from $1412m. DYOR.

[rambutan2] 04/8/2023 15:06

Yes, unlikely to be any smooth sailing.
But the assets are undoubtedly worth well north of 75p on any evidential basis.
Mr Mkt is a big hater.

[edwardt] 04/8/2023 08:53

will be interesting what they do! the city boys want to see a deal of sort done for sure

[rambutan2] 04/8/2023 02:58

I added today at 75p. The continuation vote is in sept.

[edwardt] 28/7/2023 08:19

blow out results from universal yesterday. wish we had done a deal with taylor.

[rambutan2] 24/7/2023 13:49

Red Hot Chili Peppers' sounds drifting through my window from a sold out White Hart Lane on fri/sat night. Roars from the fans, $$$s in the wind...

[laughton] 24/7/2023 12:14

Also good to see a few hip gnosis songs in barbie movie!

That is good - sorry to ask, but do you know which ones?

[edwardt] 24/7/2023 08:39

Spotify last dap to hike materially subs in US - will trickle through here - eventually! Also good to see a few hip gnosis songs in barbie movie!

[hindsight] 15/7/2023 11:08

Seems another fund that started on the back of ZIRP to attract retail savers looking for yield, like a few Reits, etc and has been correcting inflated assets from fund buying demand and ZIRP at the time

Any details on how the continuation vote works ?

[epicwarlock] 14/7/2023 12:07

The financial report issued on 13th looked pretty decent to me - no real downside surprises and some improvements in credit facilities, NAV etcBut the market seems to want rid of this....selling looks persistent. Wonder if this is more linked to the troubles of Mr M?Maybe I'm the sucker, but I'm still holding on, despite almost 15% loss so far

[jonwig] 12/7/2023 07:03

Pretty good FT article today;

"Hipgnosis investors urge sale of music catalogues to shore up stock"
If you google the above, I believe you can by-pass the paywall.
Some large shareholders are urging sale of less attractive parts of portfolio to buy back shares.

[edwardt] 12/7/2023 06:58

Well that signals a buy in my mind!

[ptch] 12/7/2023 06:31

The bringing forward of the results announcement will not have escaped the notice of John Baron the Investors Chronicle IT columnist who sold out of SONG in 2 of his 4 portfolios yesterday. The purchase rationale less than a year ago was strong business fundamentals and good discount.
He hasn't release his commentary about this exit yet, probably later today, and that could be interesting to read.

[mpage] 11/7/2023 11:21

There could (also) be non-company specific reasons for the recent decline: a general derating of ALT income assets in the face of higher central bank interest rates; a strengthening of GBP vs USD (most of the cashflows are USD); continued selling by larger institutions to cope with their own redemptions. At circa £2.5bn, SONG is fairly large and liquid and would have been of an investible size for the likes of Rathbones, Evelyn Partners etc etc.

Set against this: More generally, I've noticed how it is quite common for share prices to move in the weeks leading up to company results. Steady buying ahead of results so often coincides with a decent set of results. The converse is true, steady selling in the lead up to an announcement (on no news) often proves a correct indicator of less than stellar results subsequently. In that respect, the 2.5% fall yesterday on news that results were being brought forward was not encouraging.

[damp seaweed] 11/7/2023 10:42

The latest RNS states that the full year results will be announced on Thursday 13th July. That seems to have been brought forward from the earlier announcement of the end of July.
Maybe it is a sign of concern for the sliding share price, or they have some news that they wish to share.
Not currently invested, and the lawsuit against Mercuriadis will deter my interest

[saltwood] 08/7/2023 07:01

I only have a very small position in SONG so will see it through to the end, but it astonishes me how little information is available from the company. I just had a look at the financial calendar on the website - "AGM - September 2021"! I think the annual results will be out imminently - a now rare opportunity to hear from the company. The best thing would be a wind up if the Board is unable or unwilling to act on behalf of shareholders to hold the management company to account and resolve the apparent conflicts which is the Board's job.