Hipgnosis Songs Share Discussion Threads

[edwardt] 14/9/2023 10:26

looking through the list of proposed sells i am comfortable that these are not the cream of the portfolio. the transaction is complex but does meet a lot of the demands of the city bean counters.

[riverman77] 14/9/2023 09:18

Not too sure about this. They're selling at a 17% discount to latest valuation, and certainly no guarantee the rest of their songs would even achieve this. Compare with the private equity funds which continue to sell assets at around 30% premiums, yet trade on 40% discounts - I think I'll stick with the PE funds over this.

[cynicalsteve] 14/9/2023 09:09

Could take the market some time to give it's final verdict on this. The quality of the catalogues being sold need to be accessed, then the quality of the catalogues not being sold need to be accessed. This should allow the implied total value of the assets to be calculated. This needs to be done by someone with far more time and expertise than me! Maybe that the problem with SONG, it's too difficult to work out it's real value, especially the newer catalogues those long term earning potential are almost impossible to predict.

[hohum1] 14/9/2023 08:04

Hope they are not selling all the good stuff

[tiltonboy] 14/9/2023 07:58

This won't re-rate in the short-term. Needs more than this

[edwardt] 14/9/2023 07:57

To be fair they have invited other bids too. Unlikely but it is not improbable

[edwardt] 14/9/2023 07:46

I hear you but blackstone were always the obvious buyer

[edwardt] 14/9/2023 07:39

Boom! While not a slam dunk it does make the current share price look silly which is all that matters

[timmy40] 08/9/2023 21:30

Agreed, RHMs strategy to focus on classic songs + they don't have as much gearing as SONG, so overall seen as a safer investment + they've got a good board and decent track record !

[mpage] 08/9/2023 18:40

Yes. . . .but £1bn is a lot to swallow.

[tiltonboy] 08/9/2023 17:36

I think it also sets a marker to what is an acceptable bid. My fear previously was that Blackstone would put in an opportunistic bid, and be accepted out of indifference

[grahamg8] 08/9/2023 17:12

The Alchemy bid puts pressure on SONG. Shareholders are going to want a similar result (+45% more)or any continuation vote is likely to fail. Why settle for jam tomorrow?

[blackhorse23] 08/9/2023 14:37

Out from profit & added GNC

[edwardt] 08/9/2023 11:14

yeah that is the theory and decay will be used for sure. that said, song is far more exposed to streaming over radio with RHM. i think i would prefer streaming given the continued strong CAGR there.

[riverman77] 08/9/2023 11:12

Not looked at either of these recently, but when I did do some research on them a couple of years ago RHM stood out as investing exclusively in classic catalogues (eg 60s-80s), whereas SONG had a decent chunk (40% from memory, but that may have changed) in new songs less than a decade old. That's important, since newer catalogues more likely to depreciate and in many cases perhaps be worth very little in future years, whereas the older timeless stuff will probably be around for the foreseeable future. Possibly means the RHM catalogue is deemed better quality overall, at least from an investment perspective.

[edwardt] 08/9/2023 10:42

yeah - still some around i suspect but under the 0.5% disclosable level.

if we assume the $1.59ish nav is in fact real and adjust for corp tax and a minority discount of say 20%. i would welcome thoughts as to why this should not be above a £1 even if a sale is not agreed....

roundhill is very similar albeit smaller. it might not have the merck concerns but its catalogue appears more utility like - yet i would far rather own song's one imho.

[mpage] 08/9/2023 10:01

@ edwardt there hasn't been a lot of short interest in SONG since the price collapsed a year ago. JPM was 0.5% short in July.

hxxps://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GG00BFYT9H72/

[purplepelmets] 08/9/2023 09:58

Yes v odd. I will add aggressively if we hit 75p again. It is a significantly more interesting play than just yesterday

[edwardt] 08/9/2023 09:52

the share price reaction is odd! these are similar assets. hey ho.

[purplepelmets] 08/9/2023 09:38

Roundhill has proper quality catalogs, we have by and large electronic fluff music and a few quality yet low $ generating cats like that pro vax mandate anti choice fascist Neel Young who are doing all they can do destroy the limited value their cats have.
Chalk vs cheese. I know what I'd eat.

[riverman77] 08/9/2023 09:28

Definitely highlights the potential value on offer. I think SONG is poorly managed, but the assets themselves clearly have a lot of value. Hopefully a bid comes in here too so the assets can find a better home and relieve long suffering shareholders.

[mortimer7] 08/9/2023 09:16

Positive share price movement today, seemingly triggered by the cash offer for Round Hill Music RNS today.
Read across to Hipgnosis by investors & may be realising the potential value in the business's portfolio.