BOSTON, May 14, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- The inception of
Urban Air Mobility (UAM) dates back to 2016 when Uber introduced
their Elevate conference. The company that changed ground
transportation triggered a huge wave of investment by supporting
the future of Advanced Air Mobility. More than 300 new electric
vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft manufacturing
start-ups were established over the course of the following few
years, each grabbing a piece of the US$8.5
billion in funding that has been poured into the industry as
of the end of 2023.
Now that the industry has received significant financing and
crucial assistance from governments and regulators, it is
imperative that they demonstrate their commitment to decarbonizing
aviation. In 2023, several new electric aircraft successfully
demonstrated their technology. The upcoming challenges, however,
are significant. Regulators must ensure safety and establish clear
flying rules, while the public must be convinced of the aircraft's
sustainability and societal benefits.
IDTechEx's report, "Air Taxis: Electric Vertical Take-Off and
Landing (eVTOL) Aircraft 2024-2044: Technologies, Players,"
predicts that unit sales of eVTOLs will exhibit a 25% CAGR for the
period 2024-2044. IDTechEx's research also indicates applications
where eVTOL aircraft could provide a faster, more direct, and
flexible journey at a lower cost than competing transport modes.
Here is what to expect from the eVTOL market in 2024 and
beyond.
Changing market landscape
It is extremely doubtful that even 10% of the current 300 eVTOL
manufacturers would make it through certification and into
production, much alone becoming profitable. According to IDTechEx
research, there will only be under 25 commercial eVTOL
manufacturers (~5%) in ten years. In 2024, companies that didn't
raise enough capital during the abundant investment funding period
may face a tough time. Slipping market entry timelines make it
harder to secure funding. Finally, raising money for aircraft
development will become more challenging, especially when top
players will start operating commercially.
Chinese manufacturers eHang and Autoflight are emerging as early
commercial operators of eVTOLs. Looking to the west, prominent
companies with an eVTOL aircraft assessed at a high TRL and likely
to come to market earlier compared to competitors include Archer
(Midnight), Beta Technologies (ALIA), Lilium (Jet), Volocopter
(Volocity), and Joby Aviation (S4). First mover advantage for any
of these players is vital as more benefits will come next - income
from early commercial flights will improve finances and attract
additional funding. The IDTechEx report provides OEM updates and
benchmarks eVTOLs based on performance metrics like range, payload
capacity, and cruising speed.
Advancements in battery technology
Batteries are the heart of eVTOL aircraft. eVTOL batteries must
provide high power for long periods to enable vertical takeoff, be
light enough to sustain reasonable flight times and cargo loads,
demonstrate good durability to provide a long life, and meet the
highest commercial aviation safety standards. In short, AAM
batteries must accomplish a great deal to enable electric
flight.
Batteries used in automotive or other commercial applications
have not been optimized to meet the correct balance of safety,
power, energy, cycle life, charge time, and cost requirements for
eVTOLs. While many existing and emerging battery technologies can
be applied to eVTOLs, dedicated research and development are
continuing to unlock the potential of battery electric flight.
While automotive battery development has a strong focus on reducing
cost, the eVTOL industry is actively working to reduce battery
weight while increasing power and energy.
Aviation batteries will dramatically improve in the coming
years, with IDTechEx forecasting an energy density improvement of
2-3% per year. Battery cell development has rapidly improved over
the past decades, and today, cells are available with energy
densities of >300Wh/kg and power densities of >3kW/kg.
Furthermore, IDTechEx research finds that silicon anode material
can allow for considerable improvements in specific energy and
energy density over state-of-the-art Li-ion cells. Silicon-dominant
anodes will enable faster charging and higher power compared with
graphite anode cells. Silicon also increases the discharge capacity
of the battery cell; thus, the power provision at low SOC is
significantly improved. The IDTechEx report provides details on
OEM-supplier relationships and highlights battery technologies
being used by industry frontrunners.
Ground infrastructure to play catch-up
With aircraft only a few years away from certification, 2025/26
for the first ones, the infrastructure progress has not kept up
with the OEMs' pace, falling behind. While at entry into service,
the majority of eVTOL aircraft will operate out of existing
infrastructure (airports, heliports); as the market develops and
grows, these vehicles will use their unique performance
capabilities to land on the top of buildings and other suitable
spaces in crowded urban areas.
The general message from the regulators currently is that they
would like to see safe operations from existing airports and
heliports before new vertiports will be licenced. IDTechEx research
finds opportunity for dual-use landing sites in the short term that
can absorb traditional helicopter movements before electric
operations can begin.
To find out more about the IDTechEx report "Air Taxis: Electric
Vertical Take-Off and Landing (eVTOL) Aircraft 2024-2044:
Technologies, Players," including downloadable sample pages, please
visit www.IDTechEx.com/eVTOL.
For the full portfolio of electric vehicles market research from
IDTechEx, please visit www.IDTechEx.com/Research/EV.
About IDTechEx:
IDTechEx provides trusted independent research on emerging
technologies and their markets. Since 1999, we have been
helping our clients to understand new technologies, their supply
chains, market requirements, opportunities and forecasts. For more
information, contact research@IDTechEx.com or
visit www.IDTechEx.com.
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