NEW
YORK, May 17, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- The
Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for
the U.S. decreased by 0.6 percent in April 2024 to 101.8 (2016=100), after decreasing
by 0.3 percent in March. Over the six-month period between
October 2023 and April 2024, the LEI contracted by 1.9 percent—a
smaller decrease than its 3.5 percent decline over the previous six
months.
"Another decline in the U.S. LEI confirms that softer economic
conditions lay ahead," said Justyna
Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle
Indicators, at The Conference Board. "Deterioration in
consumers' outlook on business conditions, weaker new orders, a
negative yield spread, and a drop in new building permits fueled
April's decline. In addition, stock prices contributed negatively
for the first time since October of last year. While the LEI's
six-month and annual growth rates no longer signal a forthcoming
recession, they still point to serious headwinds to growth ahead.
Indeed, elevated inflation, high interest rates, rising household
debt, and depleted pandemic savings are all expected to continue
weighing on the US economy in 2024. As a result, we project that
real GDP growth will slow to under 1 percent over the Q2 to Q3 2024
period."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for
the U.S. rose by 0.2 percent in April
2024 to 112.3 (2016=100), after also increasing by 0.2
percent in March. As a result, the CEI was up 0.9 percent over the
six-month period ending April 2024,
slightly ahead of its 0.8 percent increase over the previous six
months. The CEI's component indicators—payroll employment, personal
income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and
industrial production—are included among the data used to determine
recessions in the US. All four components of the index improved
last month. Personal income less transfer payments made the largest
positive contribution to the Index.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for
the U.S. increased by 0.4 percent in April
2024 to 119.5 (2016=100), after remaining unchanged in
March. The LAG was up by 1.1 percent over the six-month period from
October 2023 and April 2024, a substantial improvement of a 0.3
percent increase over the previous six months.
Summary Table of Composite Economic
Indexes
|
|
|
|
|
2024
|
|
|
|
6-Month
|
|
February
|
March
|
April
|
Oct to Apr
|
Leading Index
|
102.7
|
|
102.4
|
|
101.8
|
p
|
|
|
Percent
Change
|
0.2
|
|
-0.3
|
|
-0.6
|
|
-1.9
|
|
Diffusion
|
70.0
|
|
40.0
|
|
45.0
|
|
40.0
|
|
Coincident Index
|
111.9
|
r
|
112.1
|
r
|
112.3
|
p
|
|
|
Percent
Change
|
0.3
|
r
|
0.2
|
r
|
0.2
|
|
0.9
|
|
Diffusion
|
75.0
|
|
100.0
|
|
87.5
|
|
100.0
|
|
Lagging Index
|
119.0
|
|
119.0
|
|
119.5
|
p
|
|
|
Percent
Change
|
0.2
|
r
|
0.0
|
|
0.4
|
|
1.1
|
|
Diffusion
|
42.9
|
|
42.9
|
|
64.3
|
|
50.0
|
|
p Preliminary r Revised c Corrected
|
Source: The Conference Board
|
Indexes equal 100 in
2016
|
|
|
|
The next release is scheduled for Friday, June 21, 2024, at 10 A.M. ET.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic
Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite
economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system
designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The
indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning
points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than
any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real
GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or "leads")
turning points in the business cycle by around 7 months. Shaded
areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates
above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in
the business cycle.
The ten components of The Conference Board Leading
Economic Index® for the U.S. include: Average weekly hours
in manufacturing; Average weekly initial claims for unemployment
insurance; Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and
materials; ISM® Index of New Orders; Manufacturers' new
orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders;
Building permits for new private housing units; S&P
500® Index of Stock Prices; Leading Credit
Index™; Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury bonds
less federal funds rate); Average consumer expectations for
business conditions.
To access data, please visit:
https://data-central.conference-board.org/
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the
member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What's
Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit
entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.
ConferenceBoard.org
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