|Yule Catto & Co
||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
Real-Time news about Yule Catto (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|peaeff: I am now intrigued to see what this letter from the outgoing/resigning auditors will say. I do hope it has nothing directly connected to this sudden downturn in the share price.|
|cockneyrebel: trading update tomorrow, with the share price looking like it's pricing in a poor performace can they possibly disappoint?
Were pretty upbeat in March, directors been buying since then too.
|penpont: Just a comment in the IC re recent director activity:
Yule Catto rally tempts seller
By Robert Ansted, 23 March 2012
Strong full-year results from Yule Catto earlier this month were warmly received by the City and numerous upgrades followed. "The most undervalued of the UK chemical companies, in our view," wrote Morgan Stanley, as the share price rallied within sight of a new high.
That was enough for Alexander Catto, the non-executive director, to pocket £227,000 from the sale of 100,000 shares. Still, his remaining stake is currently worth £4.7m and, given the success of the PolymerLatex acquisition and increasing income from emerging markets, is likely to keep growing. Director Neil Johnson clearly thinks so. The Hornby and Umeco chairman has opened his account with the purchase of 50,000 shares at 251p.
Mr Johnson got in at an eight-month high, but a forward PE ratio of just 10 looks too cheap and a further re-rating of Yule Catto looks likely. At 240p, the shares are a buy.
Last IC view: Buy, 228p, 14 March 2012|
|copyright: a bit quiet here.
i'm surprised to see yulc drift down from 220 to 210 (almost 5%) during the last 5 trading days on low volume trades.
some good news on trading and cost synergies hopefully in full year 2011 results on Wednesday 14th March, it would be brilliant if there were some news on the acquisition front as well.
broker concensus is for pbt of 74.5m, eps of 19.3p with pe ratio of 11.0x
for current year 2012 broker forecast is pbt of 100.6m, eps of 22.62p with pe ratio of just 9.4x with a further fall in pe ratio to 8.5x for 2013
so, imo, yulc is still significantly undervalued and overlooked in the market just now.
deserves a pe of at least 12x which equates to a share price of between 260p and 300p.
its peer group trades on a pe of more than 15x, typically 18 to 20x
given a pe of just 15x, then an appropriate share price of between 290 and 340 could be justified on a two year outlook.
i'm watching very closely between now and 14th March for any further weakness in the share price before topping up prior to results day.|
|cocomac0: free stock charts from uk.advfn.com
To me this shows very evidently that there is currently allot of volume, per the volume oscillator. Also shows MACD, where long term and short have nearly converged. As per my previous comments I don't really believe MACD is much more than arbitrary............ however if enough people do believe in it then it becomes significant and will influence share price. Given the high volume, there's allot of potential to shift the share price allot either way, question is will it bump it up or down, 200p I would of thought will be fairly key. If people believing in the MACD start to sell, could spread like wildfire.
As has been said by others tho....... upcoming results could bump it up, and of course there is nothing to confirm any bid rumours either way, so could still be positive
Ultimately........ I just ain't sure, so won't invest at the moment.
|cocomac0: Hey, no news of late........... am guessing the takeover spec was exactly that.... just spec'......... just like the last two times it arose, annoying!!!
Been looking into why stocks seem to move arbitrarily so much.......... ended up looking at all that MACD pish....... it pretty much is arbitrary...... however, maybe I'll have to accept that that doesn't matter, and that if enough people use it then figures it throws up become meaningful. I did find a nice way of looking at volume tho whilst delving into chartism....... and I did find something I do really like: advfn have something called the volume oscillator and it finally let me visualise a meaningful measure of volume, because it's basically relative volume, that is: a volume chart which shows how the recent volume compares to a long term (proper long term) average of volume. It nicely shows there is relatively allot of interest in this stock at the moment. However, that MACD pish is just about to show the short term average is going below a longer term average.......... or errrrrrr..... duhhhhhhhhhhhh....... the share price chart is going flat!!!!!! and that's about all that pish means, and it's patently obvious from even a mere glance at the share price chart. However, like I said, if enough people use it then it will start to have influence.
Given the above....... I reckon if share price stays about the same next couple of days, and in the absence of any takeover news, the share price is gonna start falling back down again!!!
Any sensible criticism welcome.
|copyright: would i be correct in thinking that at today's closing price of 217 pence, then this equates to a pre-rights issue, pre acquisition announcement price of approx 352 pence for the original YULC only business.
I have worked back this price as follows :
3 shares at 352 pence = 10.56
4 shares at 116 pence = 4.64
so weighted average of 217 pence (15.20/7)
not sure how relevant or meaningful this figure is but surely it does at least provide a valid comparison as to how YULC share price has performed since the acquisition and rights issue announcement date, presumably within is an improved market rating with better prospects and improved profitably for the original business.
closing price on 12th December 2009 immediately prior to the rights issue announcement date (13th December) was approx 308 pence so today's equivalent of 352 pence suggests a gain of 14.3% since that date.
i presume this figure of 352 is the best figure to be used to compare with previous brokers target price expectation of 400 pence for the YULC only business.
i myself had suggested a medium to long term target price of 400 pence for the original YULC business some weeks before the acquisition announcement.
so maybe we are just 12% away from achieving that target price and i am now wondering if YULC is now approaching fair valuation, however i do accept that significant future cost synergies / reductions for the enlarged business along with the increased capacity and cross selling potential could mean that today's market is still not fully appreciating the long term potential and profitability for the combined business.
i am considering a change in my stance following the significant share price rise we have already witnessed and i am battling with myself as to whether my focus should now be on "selling into strength" as opposed to "further buying on weakness".
i have made a very healthy profit on my smallish holding in YULC, perhaps now is the time to realise part of that profit.....what about the proverbial saying of .......... "always leave a bit of a profit for the next guy"
not sure if i can match the return i have made on my original shareholding with the outflow of funds I have made to take up my rights issue entitlement ..... plus i'm confident i could come up with some other shares where there is a better opportunity to make a better return than staying with YULC after its significant rise over the last few months.
all comments gratefully appreciated and thanking you in advance for any comment offerred.|
it sure is complicated !
at announcement of the rights issue, yulc price was 260 so with a 4 for three rights issue at 116 pence, you would expect the price to fall to an average of 178 pence (firstname.lastname@example.org + email@example.com = 7@ 12.44 so aver of 177.7 pence).
However, the market likes the news and with yulc shares now at 309 pence, you can expect the price to fall to 199 pence (firstname.lastname@example.org + email@example.com = 7@ 13.91 so aver of 198.7 pence.
so if the share price stays as is, that means you would, in theory, gain 21 pence profit per share if you take up the rights issue in full.
so if you already own 3,000 shares, you will make a profit of £630 by taking up the rights issue.
however, the only thing we can say is that the market will decide on the final adjusted rights price of the enlarged company, no-one knows what that will be, the speculators and arbritrageurs will be trying to force the price down, it has been known for the price to be driven right down to the rights issue price which in yulc's case is 116 pence, although I cannot see this happening here.
the share price has been rising nicely since the acquisition has has been announced (up from 242 to 309 pence), it will fall back once sellers / shorters / speculators move in hoping to drive the price down and buy back in before the record date of 22nd december and still be able to take up their rights at the price of 116 pence. there will also be existing holders who will sell part of their existing holding to provide them with cash to take up part of their rights which will put a bit of pressure on the price also.
gut feeling is the price will level out at between 280 and 300 by the record date which would give an open average price of say 190 pence after the rights issue is out of the way.
but the market has sanctioned the acquisition, it seems to like what it sees, there is sustained buying going on, they could still be more demand than supply between today and the record date of 22nd december, this could drive the price to say 325 pence which would average out at 205 pence with resulting gain of 27 pence per share = £810 if you currently hold 3000 shares.
if you are at all nervous, keep watching the price, set a sell limit price if the share price keeps rising, review that price on a daily basis, then sell at whatever price you are happy to accept.
if you want to preserve your capital just in case the price begins to dip then set a limit say at today's price of 309 and make your mind up at what price you want to sell out at if the price starts to fall, maybe hold on the first day of fall but sell on day two of the fall if that suggests a falling price trend to you.
imho, this is a very cheap deal, the future of the enlarged company is very rosy indeed, in fact i strongly believe that the much stronger and larger combined company will become an even better target for a predator and i'm keeping my fingers crossed for a medium term takeout price between 400 and 450 pence say within 3 to 5 years.
it's all down to your own judgement your own risk profile.
hope this helps a little, could spend hours and hours discussing subject.
i'm prepared myself for a possible sizeable fall below the average weighted price whatever that will be, i'm even more bullish for the long term future for the combined company, i also stronglt believe it will eventually be taken out by the likes of BASF or another chemical giant so i will be taking up my rights issue in full and adding on any weakness after the rights issue is out of the way.|
|copyright: how should we read this position of silence from the YULC board of directors.
There has been an approach, informal or formal, in which case they are in possession of price sensitive information and they are duty bound to inform the market and the shareholders. I'm not entirely sure if they are obliged to do anything if an approach at this stage is purely informal.
There has been no approach and hence there should be no reason for the not to make a formal RNS letting the market know these rumours are unfounded, if only to help explain the significant upwards movement followed by significant downwards movement in the share price over the last three trading sessions. Again, perhaps they are not required to company law to make any announcement at all, and choose not to do so even as a matter of courtesy to the shareholders.
No news can sometimes be good news I suppose, all will be known in due course of events.
Could a 6% move up in one afternoon followed by a near 6% decline spark an investigation by the FSA into who, if anyone, has perhaps been trying to manipulate the share price on the back of maybe false but plausible rumour mongering.
I personally would like the board of YULC to do the honourable thing and come out and either confirm or deny the existence of any such approach and hence restore trading to its normal daily pattern and remove the current volatility in the share price.
If no approach whatsover has been made to the company, and it's purely a stakebuilding exercise going on, then we should expect to see more sell trades going through which are gobbled up by the market without the share price falling and with the price starting to rise when the stakebuilder's demand exceeds the supply of willing sellers leading to higher bid price.
If there is no approach and no stakebuilding exercise taking place then how do we explain the price movement over the last few days and why would the board not make an official announcement to that effect or at least one which states that they have no knowledge of what has caused the price volatility over the last two days.
It's beginning to get a bit frustrating with no response from YULC board.
I continue to hold with every confidence for the future as an independent listed company, however I will sell in the marketplace if / when any offer goes unconditional and before closing date for acceptance of any offer if an approach were to be announced.
Just hope the board will show respect and have the decency to keep us all appraised of the existing situation especially if there has been no such approach made to the company.
Fingers crossed they will.|
|copyright: CR....imho fair valuation for YULC is 250 pence, 25p eps x conservative pe of 10.
Sector average pe taking likes of Croda (CRDA), Victrex (VCT) and Elementis (ELM) into account is somewhere between 14x and 18x
so, below sector average of 12 x eps would value YULC at close to 300 pence.
on sector average of 15 x eps would value YULC at 375 pence
YULC is a relatively small player in the chemicals sector so maybe cannot command such a high pe of 18 as for Croda.
Historic price of YULC would suggest a price anywhere in between 280 pence and 400 pence underpinning the crude calculations above.
I am expecting YULC share price to hit 280 pence within 12 to 24 months perhaps it may come sooner if operating cash flow continues to improve and dividend is re-instated before 2010 year end, this of course would attract income funds / institutional investors, the fight for shares in a relatively illiquid company such as YULC would push the share price up more quickly, of course there will always be others who will sell into strength but the share price shart would still trend up sharply in my opinion.|
Yule Catto share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange