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Real-Time news about Vmoto (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|pj 1: It appears the share price in Aus is still falling since consolidation and de-listing, probably confirming the Co is not what we thought it was|
|saucepan: I keep VMT on my ADVFN watch list. I looked in as I saw there was a post! (The first since back in May).
My first reaction was one of shock, seeing the huge price spike on the chart. I wondered what stupendous development I had missed! On trying to unearth what it was, I discovered a ten to one share price consolidation on 4 June. ADVFN has not corrected the chart (and nor has ShareScope, which is usually good keeping up with consolidations).
Therefore, for anyone new looking in here, don't be fooled by the rise on the chart.
As to the trading update, it sounds promising - but they always do (having followed VMT for several years now)!
I expressed some of my reservations in posts 338, 347, and 353 above. I suspect they are still valid, but will be particularly interested in the eps figure in next results. Will it be headlined or buried away in the small print? We shall see!|
|lanzarote666: This should get the share price moving sharply.
Strong profits forecast - 'revenue from increased production and distribution expected to exceed $69 million this year, Vmoto is at its scale inflection point, with earnings forecast to grow very strongly over 2015 and beyond."
Earnings before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) in the range between A$6 million to A$8 million; and Net profit after tax (NPAT) in the range between A$5 million to A$7 million.
This compares to the Company's 2014 underlying EBITDA and NPAT results of A$4 million and A$3.2 million respectively (pre share based payments and impairments).'|
|envirovision: The red flag is simply china on aim
buy at your peril, they seem to be throwing everything at it to ramp the share price including broker jollies
Probably hoping to take a second dip into the honey pot, eg a placing to raise yet more cash for the triads|
|saucepan: The update reads really well, but there seems absolutely no interest from the market. If I was feeling more gung ho, I would buy back in. However, the sensible view is perhaps that there are better opportunities elsewhere in more-liquid stocks already showing momentum.
The VMT share price has never really recovered from the resignation of Chairman Simon Farrell back in May. VMT has still not replaced him with someone of similar calibre. Perhaps that is the biggest amber/red flag?
On a separate note, I did spot that one of their customers is Taiwanese - so the link with that Country (as discussed above) does in fact exist.
I'll continue to watch with interest and don't rule out a repurchase at some point.|
|masurenguy: Vmoto Limited (ASX:VMT and London Stock Exchange:VMT) is a leading global scooter manufacturer and distribution group specialising in electric powered two wheel vehicles. Vmoto's electric scooters have chic European design and German engineering.
Vmoto wholly owned its state of the art manufacturing facility in Nanjing, China, which has an estimated production capacity of 500,000 units of scooters per annum. Vmoto also have offices in West Perth, Australia and Bremen, Germany. Vmoto has one of the widest global distribution networks of any electric scooter manufacturer in the world, being represented by more than 28 distributors in 30 countries in the geographic regions of Asia Pacific, Europe, North America, South America and South Africa. The group operates two primary brands: Vmoto and E-Max. The electric scooter market is experiencing high growth and Vmoto is a well positioned brand in this space. The company also supply to a number of customers on an OEM basis.
What is there to like about Vmoto's business?
1. Vmoto is a growing brand selling electric scooters to about 30 countries worldwide.
2. The company owns outright their own 30,000 sqm production facility outside of Shanghai in Nanjing, China.
3. The production facility has the capacity to produce up to 500,000 electric scooters per annum.
4. Current production is less than a quarter of capacity so they have plenty of room to grow.
5. Vmoto turned cash flow positive in the December 2013 quarter.
6. And reported a maiden Net Profit after Tax for the 2013 Financial Year which ended December 2013.
7. The 1st quarter of 2014 was also cash flow positive and the beginning of the year is historically their slowest time of year. So profit and cash flow for the year should increase quarter-on- quarter throughout the year.
8. The company has minimal and manageable net debt of about $1 million as of April 2014.
9. And, electric scooters are a very environmentally friendly mode of transport.
What are the reasons for continued business growth?
1. Vmoto have distribution agreements in place with companies such as Chrysler and another company called PowerEagle to supply up to 150,000 units by 2015.
2. They now have 16 retail stores in China open with plans to open more. The retail stores are where their profit comes from. This draws comparisons with a company such as ARB (selling their own four wheel drive parts with a very successful retail model).
3. Vmoto supply to the main markets for scooters being China, India, Indonesia and Brazil. China is by far the biggest market though.
4. In a lot of Asia, people cannot afford to buy a car but they can afford to buy an electric scooter. Plus scooters are a large form of transport for many people across Asia and developing countries in any case.
5. The company announced yesterday 2nd July that DHL (the leading courier company) is trialing the use of Vmoto's scooters. Supplying to a worldwide company such as DHL would open up a new and large market for the company.
What are the risks facing this business?
1. A more recent risk is a bit of instability within the board. The company is presently searching for an Australian based director. However, the business has its current momentum from the work done on building the business over the past number of years. The need to fill a director role is not going to have a significant impact on the trajectory the business.
2.Another risk I see is that the company falls into the trap of taking on too many distributorships which are good for turnover although may not be good for long term profitability. Long term, I think they will be much better off focusing on developing their brand and selling via their own retail stores. Wih the company growing from eight retail stores to 16 retail stores in the past year, I think management know that the best outcome for the business is to continue to develop the profitable retail brand and business model.
3.The third risk is that current shareholders are diluted with a capital raising at some point. Despite the company now producing positive cash flow, for a business growing this fast, the difficulty is managing cash flow appropriately. I am sure however if a capital raise does occur, it may lead to a temporary setback in the share price for the long term good of the business and long term share price. In saying that, I will be delighted if there is no need to raise capital.
Is it run by able and trustworthy management?
When researching this business, I watched a video by one of the directors Mr Olly Cairns. I was suitably impressed with the way Mr Cairns articulated the work done by the company over the past few years with the development of the manufacturing facility and the current activities being rolled out to grow the business.
Is it trading at a bargain price?
Based on cash flow reported by the company and the momentum of that cash flow and profitability I believe the company is trading at a bargain price. I estimate the company will generate NPAT of between $1 Million and $2 Million in 2014. Based on the lower $1 Million figure, I estimate the company to be valued at 6 cents a share in 2014 (December is year end). And, based on my own estimates of profitability growth, I think the intrinsic value of the business can rise significantly over FY15 and FY16. However, being my own estimates, while my numbers are conservative, they are "not as dialed" as I would like.
Company Code Rank Today's Share Price Margin of Safety 2014 Forecast Valuation 2015 Forecast Valuation 2016 Forecast Valuation
Vmoto Limited VMT Gold 5 4.8 cents 20% 6 cents 10.4 cents 21 cents
In summary, Vmoto is a great business with an excellent product. Vmoto has a significant pipeline of work from other manufacturers such as Chrysler, a good international distribution network, growing number of retail stores and some exciting opportunities for the future. By my calculations, the company is trading at a good discount to my estimate of intrinsic value with my estimates of that value growing over the foreseeable future.
This article is published by Dean Mico. Disclosure: The Edge Fund owns shares in Vmoto Limited.
The information provided in this article is intended for general use only. The article is intended to provide educational information only. Please be aware that investing involves the risk of capital loss. The information presented does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and advisory needs of any particular person, nor does the information provided constitute investment advice. Under no circumstances should investments be based solely on the information herein
|saucepan: Another strong quarterly update. Perhaps that will get the share price moving again.|
|rp19: There is obviously no connection between Volta Mining and Vmoto but the share price of Volta Mining rose in the days following the re-commencement of trading (since slipped to just below the pre halt level). Within their announcement, Volta gave information as to the new director appointment (suitability for role and salary/benefits package etc) and a quick update on an exploration project.
I wonder if Vmoto will follow a similar structure? Obviously any update can be good or bad. So still a little nervy about this.
On the 21 May there were 3 other trading halts issues on ASX in addition to Vmoto's, 3 also on 20 May.|
|rp19: I think you are right - the lack of a reason may have spooked a few. Not sure whether the fall is justified, but the share price has held up well in recent weeks in not great markets. Maybe why the decent size pull-back. Appears to be back on trend-line now.|
|yump: Tempted to have a minor punt.
If maiden profit is say £200,000 and there's 970mln shares, that gives 0.02p per share earnings, which at this share price is a p/e of 75. Obviously early p/e's are distorted to the upside though.
Assume next year p/e of 20 as they seem to be growing revenue fast.
At a share price of 1.5p that implies 0.075p per share.
ie. around 3x this year.
ie. pbt of around £600,000.
Not clear why floated on AIM instead of tapping OZ market for more cash ?
Are we an easy play ?
Turnover of around £6mln. pbt of £600k doesn't seem wild.|
Vmoto share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange