Trap Oil Grp Share Discussion Threads

[rogerlin] 12/6/2015 09:30

"In November 2014, the workover to replace the two Electric Submersible Pumps (ESPs) on the P4 well at the Athena oil field was completed successfully using the Ocean Princess drilling rig. Production at the P4 well came back on stream in late November, and has performed steadily after clean-up operations were completed and the rig left the site. Strong production uptime was maintained during the workover process, and field shut-down time was limited to ten days. The workover reduced the technical risk associated with the Athena field, with stable production now extracted from three fully operational wells instead of two."

This was PMG's comment on Athena in the March interim statement, sounds positive but P2 not mentioned and so perhaps economical with the truth.

While there's life there's hope cyan!

[captain james t kirk] 12/6/2015 09:28

It's interesting that June also saw the start of the new net cash flow sharing contract between the Athena partners and BW Offshore.
TRAP have a circa £2m payment to make in July as part of this new deal (Total compensation perhaps)and I calculate that they are currently grossing around £850k a month from Athena. Has Mr Market finally woken up to this fact ?
I'm not a holder of TRAP and I'm beginning to think unfortunately:)

I must admit I myself re calculated that monthly turnover figure 5 or 6 times to make sure it is right.

[cyan] 12/6/2015 09:22

Forgot to add;

What has happened to the TOTAL 'no drill' compensation TRAP was/is supposed to get?.
That could be very handy.

For the record I have a substantial holding in TRAP so I would have an interest in ramping the share; but I will not . If you buy now remember this is a gamble now rather than an investment imo.

[cyan] 12/6/2015 09:09

I hope rogerlin does not mind me reposting his insightful post from April;

Trapoil - North Sea oil/gas production and exploration (moderated) - TRAP
rogerlin - 25 Apr 2015 - 08:58:51 - 8098 of 8239

"and also by pump failures in the P2 production well. In the fourth quarter, a workover was completed on the P4 well, in addition to certain intervention work on the P1 and P3 wells..."

Not long ago as I understood it P2 was the main producing well and had two working ESPs, but P4 had suffered pump failure which was to be remedied. Now we are told that P2 has suffered pump failures (plural), which explains why production has fallen so much. If that's the case why was intervention work done on P1 and P3 but not P2 the main producer? Also, if P2 has failed because of its pumps, then that is not field depletion or poor reservoir and that production (which was 4000 bbl/day) could be restored with a new pump. Under the new contract there could still be mileage in Athena if P2 were fixed and an extra producer drilled, which was PMG's original plan. Unfortunately I don't think Ithaca are much interested as they are stressed for cash. PMG could do it if they were operator.
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TRAPS undoing has much to do with poor management decisions but, also, the slump in the price of oil and some bad luck.

It appears that there is life in the old dog ,Athena. TC at PMG was not a fool when he took large chunks of the field but was undone by the oil price crash.
I was, and still am sure that TC wanted to redrill Athena and extend its production life. He publically stated they were looking at such options.

Both TC and PG obviously saw money to be made at a time when oil was much higher.
Roger rightly highlights the issue of whether there is any interest in working Athena over and maybe another drill.
The critical factor is TRAP's dwindling cash. Not only do we have to raise funds ; we have to also have to have an economic case supported by the numbers AND the support of the other parties.

Realistically, TRAP is very high risk and the story now is all about NIOBE.

If NIOBE is a duster be prepared for the worst.

[bumpa33] 12/6/2015 09:07

hmmm... heavily offered at these levels, wonder why that is..!? TRAP must go down as one of the worst run/unluckiest oilers i've ever come across. Not sure who, if anyone is going to put more money into this, regardless of Niobe...

[bad robot] 12/6/2015 08:08

Good luck chaps

Took my chips off the table. Nice 90% profit for me.

IN BR WE TRUST

[robhammers] 12/6/2015 08:05

looks like pointing at 3p. must have got some sort of funding deal

[bad robot] 12/6/2015 08:03

BOOOM BOOOOM

[cyan] 11/6/2015 20:18

Good evening phowdo. I am just guessing.
I have not seen any evidence of ramping. Hard to find any goods news for TRAP recently. I note this post from the PMG board

ziblot
3 Jun'15 - 12:42 - 5301 of 5301 0 0


Better news on Athena: Dec. 3890 bopd; Jan. 3952 bopd; Feb. 4620 bopd.
Best figures for 7 month.
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So TRAP maybe getting 3000 more barrels a month. Ummmm oil is $64.96 now ummm again. Still looks very dodgy for TRAP imo.
I suppose someone could think a financial lifeline is in the offing .
I am not getting excited, yet.

[phowdo] 11/6/2015 19:59

If 5p is the success upside and CoS is 20% then 1p is about right, no?

[cyan] 11/6/2015 19:49

I do not know what to make of this jump in the share price
One purchase was of £20k ' worth. That's quite a gamble.
Its all or nothing with the Niobe drill . If its a duster ; most likey TRAP is bust. If its a success , imo, its 5p plus in a flash.
Its a roll of the dice, I think.

[baner] 11/6/2015 19:02

could be 10MMboe for Trap.......at say $5 that is worth 15p/share. if COS is 30% the theoretical value could well be nearer to 5p.......so no wonder there are punters in there.....good luck, very exciting!!

[cyan] 11/6/2015 18:28

"Noreco estimates that the well has a 30% chance of success and that the prospect contains between 7 MMboe and 157 MMboe, with a P50 of 38 MMboe (gross)."

They seem to have upped the COS a bit; I thought it was 22%.

[captain james t kirk] 11/6/2015 17:03

hxxp://www.worldoil.com/news/2015/6/10/suncor-spuds-niobe-exploration-well-noreco-reports

[tidy 2] 11/6/2015 16:58

Appropriately named shares guys lol

[captain james t kirk] 11/6/2015 16:44

Hi Horndean,

I'm interested in your reasoning behind that statement and if proved correct how do you determine who is behind it ?
Me, I wasn't brave enough to buy in at the end of May. A 3 bagger would have been very satisfactory :)

[bad robot] 11/6/2015 16:40

We should go orbital tomorrow, the One been lurking. Don't forget 2m buys at 1.0p premium being paid.

My min price is 2.6p on the way to 5p


IN BR WE TRUST

[cashandcard] 11/6/2015 16:26

Niobe is life or death for this one - would not go near it with a bargepole.


Cash

[horndean eagle] 11/6/2015 16:23

Obviously a pump and dump going on. Find out soon enough who is behind it