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Real-Time news about Toluna (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|kenmitch: A brilliant deal for TOL shareholders - all the better for being in cash thanks to the arrangement by EVT and Invesco to make that possible.With short term risks for Toluna and the need for more investment this looks an ideal time to take the Company private and I'm very pleased with the price too. Without such a deal now, and bearing in mind the trading update, it is unlikely that the Toluna share price would have done much and might even have come under short term pressure. OK that would have provided TOL investors with a chance to top up lower ahead of strong performance, but that could have meant another year or two, instead of which we get a 30% uplift in the share price now and are able to realise the profit.
This is all good news for EVT shareholders too, and EVT will now have more time for their other very promising investments and they are going to have a lot more cash from June too. EVT shares are far too low even after the bounce following the TOL news and look well worth buying and there should be very little downside risk with that substantial discount to NAV. And if the share price does drift lower then EVT will be an even better buy.
This is yet another example of Richard Bernstein's deal making and Management qualities.
Yes, the EVT share price performance has bee disappointing but in the end again they have pulled a rabbit out of the hat.|
|kenmitch: Despite a recent very positive trading statement the share price has continued to fall until today when there were quite a few traded too. The share price has now lost all the gains since January.
I bought some yesterday - just ahead of the price falling even further! - as the share price now is back where it was ahead of the transformational Greenfields buy.
Since there has only been good news and more of the same is likely, the current buying price in the mid 230s looked too good to miss.
Anyone else here who either agrees or disagrees?|
|kenmitch: A bit surprising to see no posts on the excellent Toluna trading update today.
Underlying ptp expected to be over 10% ahead of expectations at £7 million.
Confirmation that the Greenfield Online acquisition - see original post for more on this - at a bargain price, is bedding in well with "significant synergies being achieved ahead of management expectations."
Strong cash flow with net cash at the year end in excess of £10 million.
Results expected in April.
Share price reaction? A gain of just 4p for Toluna and a token 0.25p for EVT.
That's a shame for those holding. Maybe a solution for more recognition of two outstanding Companies is a move to the Main Market?
Also broker Cenkos have issued another Toluna buy note today. And they anticipate upgrading their profit forecasts when the full year results are issued in April.
Aside from the better than expected profits forecast and the big increase in cash - Cenkos I think had anticipated £2.2 million for end 2010 and they have over £10 million - the other big plus today is confirmation that the Greenfield acquisition is bedding in so well and will be a key driver of future profits.
I dont know what it will take to get the EVT and Toluna share prices really moving - but at least with both in such fine fettle the downside should be very limited, and if it happens with another big market tumble then it will be a chance to buy more shares in two very successful Companies. More likely surely is that the share prices will move up further soon - and it isn't long now before EVT update on what they intend doing with the surplus cash from their recent sale of KSS Retail.
I'll post this on the Toluna thread as well - though there may not be much here that regular readers of the two threads didn't know already.|
|kenmitch: Yes excellent results, and they make a nonsense of the idiotic posts above suggesting, without giving any reasons, a share price of 20p.
Very impressive too when compared with the problems YOU faced going down the dangerous big acquisition route.
Increase in the dividend again too. Can't find any obvious minus points and they are coping with the downturn as well as expected...... except that the shares have done superbly while so many others have tumbled. The share price rose from January to December last year - not many others did that. And they have held on to those gains this year.
These results show that that impressive share price performance is fully deserved.
But unfortunately it also means that share price upside potential is more limited compared with some others that have fallen massively and now have huge recovery potential - or have already recovered and multi bagged.
The best way in to TOL is to buy EVT as their share price has halved from the peak on no bad news and EVT still own around 50% of TOL.
What EVT need to get their share price moving up again is proper good news from Magenta, KSS and MIST especially. The first two have already proved excellent investments, but despite that so far Magenta especially, and more recent investment MIST have not done as well as hoped. But that could easily change so monitor and look to buy EVT on the first whiff of good news as then their share price could fly.|
I don't recall seeing any posts from you on TOL before.
Your comment can apply to many shares, even big Companies. What about the effects on share prices of some of our largest Companies thanks to Hedge Fund activities?
As it happens I can't recall the share price of Toluna ever being manipulated since the Company listed. Even with smaller companies that is more likely on a share very popular with private investors, or one held by overgeared spread betters or those looking for quick profits on T20s or T25s. If they are all forced to sell around the same time then the share price will fall, at least for a time.
TOL has not got a big following, and is not held by a lot of overenthusiastic gamblers.Indeed have a look at the main shareholders to see how quality Institutions have invested. Anyway unlike many smaller company shares the TOL share price now is higher than it was in January. That's an impressive performance in a bear market.
I suggest you have a good look at TOL and Eurovestech (Eurovestech hold about 50% of TOL) and concentrate on company fundamentals rather than misplaced concerns about either of these two Companies having their share prices manipulated.|
|kenmitch: Interesting snippet about Toluna here
That's some recognition! So Toluna is the fastest growing Company in France. On top of being the World's leading online panel community. And 15th out of 7000 French Companies for their financial performance.
YouGuv inevitably gets more recognition here - for now.
There has been other good news too - e.g a good update on Magenta and further contracts for KSS.
Both EVT and TOL share prices have held up well during this downturn, and in the case of EVT a good bit better than during the last bear market. Toluna are actually higher now than in January.
Guess it will take something bigger or a return to a bull market (I'm dreaming of both) to get EVT shares up again. But they retain strong Institutional support and are continuing to do a lot right.|
|ninjatnut: theophilus - you either work for TOL or you are seriously misguided. With a pe of 30 there is no connect to industry average which is around 10x. See TMN as an industry leader with a sensible PE and bid interest. The TOL share price allows itself to be manipulated higher in the extremely thin conditions.|
|kenmitch: Apologies straight away. I can't post a link to the Cenkos brokers note, and the following is just a copy and paste of my post about it last week on Mike Walters bulletin board.
But some here might find bits of this interesting/useful. Ignore the bits that really only apply to those who subscribe to Mike's site. I - and a few others - have posted regularly over there on EVT and more recently TOL.
The following (after a waffly introduction mostly already known to anyone regularly reading/contributing to this bb) is mainly about the latest Cenkos broker buy note for Toluna, issued last week....
"My posts concentrate on ToLuna because that is the company I know the most about. The sector as a whole is making progress at a fantastic rate, and although the share prices already reflect some of that, there should be far more to come as the on-line research sector covers only 5% of the market here compared with 32% in the United States. That gives some indication of the potential for huge further growth.
The advantages of on-line research compared with the old methods - telephone polls, interviews etc are obvious. Reliability, speed, and especially time and cost efficiencies.
e.g ToLuna are expanding very fast - not just here and Europe, but also into the US, Asia, Australia and probably in time, beyond. The costs of so doing thanks to the wonders of the computer age are very low. Offices are set up with very few staff needed so the costs of this massive expansion are small. Yet the rewards in increased revenues and profits are enormous.
Already TOL have gone from a single office in Paris when they floated, to offices in London and New York, and established a strong presence in Germany. TOL has been an excepional performer, comfortably exceeding what seemed ambitious growth targets when they floated.
Until very recently few had discovered this sector - and maybe only two or three others on this bb despite endless posts singing its praises. That has changed in the last week or so with 3 buys tips in National newspapers for TOL and then coinciding with those a hugely positive pre close update from Research Now which saw their share price rise around 50% in a couple of days.
Anyway a few details,and explanations from the Cenkos buy note issued earlier this week. Anything in brackets is/are my additional explanations.
1. ToLuna now has over 1.1 million participants across Europe. It also licenses its own proprietory data collection technology - the other two do not - so this is a distinguishing feature, with higher margin opportunities. Indeed YOU is actually a customer of TOL.
2. Cenkos mention the high level of repeat business - reflecting satisfied customers.
(Some time ago I mentioned that TOL had 100% repeat business from their technology offering, and that still applies.i.e they have not lost a single customer).
3. In addition to the strong organic growth potential Cenkos expect TOL to make selective earnings enhancing acquistions.They have already done this once with the purchase of Speedfacts in Germany and this acquisition has already been successfully integrated. Cenkos reckon there could be opportunities for further product innovations, particularly emanating from the fact that the company has developed on line communities for consumer opinions, initially in France - where they are based - and subsequently across Europe. Cenkos reckon that if TOL continues to perform as forecast then they could easily appear on the radar of large consumer information groups and private equity.
(i.e the low capital intensity of this business as explained above could be a key attraction).
Cenkos concede that the short term valuation is steep - but justifiably so.
(This is what has put off so many on this bb from investing in TOL following a "wow just look at the PE" post from Nil Desperandum. Many of us have a lot of respect for Nil D.but he didn't like what he saw when he had a quick look at the company, when the shares were around 140p compared with £2 now. Sadly the sceptics did not accept the arguments put forward here to explain that this was perhaps a fairly rare example of a short term high PE being fully justified by the huge and rapid expansion prospects, with the resultant huge increases in turnover and profits as well. They made the same mistake earlier with EVT as well, which they argued - and their case on the surface looked equally convincing - was overvalued when the EVT share price was 3p!! Now it is 18p - and all but £12 million of the EVT market cap is the value of their stake in Toluna. i.e it would be hard to argue that the EVT share price was overvlaued now).
Anyway back to Cenkos on the TOL valuation. They claim that the strong growth prospects put TOL on a very low PEG ratio of just 0.1 for 2006, and 0.4 for 2007 and 2008. They forecast pre tax profits rising to £2.1 million this year, £3.8 million next year, and £5.4 million in 2008.
They also forecast a progressive dividend policy as TOL is so strongly cash generative. The maiden dividend was 0.2p and they forecast a final dividend of 0.6p with the scope for dividends to rise after that.
(fwiw - the pattern so far, with YOU and RNOW as well as TOL has been to under promise and over deliver. If that continues then even these forecasts could be beaten. e.g TOL, YOU and now RNOW have all come out with "results likely to be much better than anticipated" pre close trading statements. TOL have also outperformed forecasts in earlier buy notes. e.g not so long ago Cenkos had a target price for TOL of just £1.20. How fast things have moved since then, and my hope/expectation is that there are more of these surprises on the upside to come).
5. On strategy, Cenkos point out that while there remain major opportunities for growth in Europe, the company recognises the benefits of a global offering and is considering further expansion into Asia in 2007. And in the US their presence there will allow them to conduct business globally. TOL, they say, will contiue to try and lead the way with innovative products like their unique proprietory technology.
(My own - possibly inappropriate! - comparison is that it's a bit like the rapid expansion of Tesco worldwide, but without the big set up costs and NONE of the nasty side effects. Today Europe, tomorrow the World).
(This is not a share for the get rich quick brigade. My guess is that the shares will continue to perform as they have since floating - with spells of sseveral weeks with few trades and hardly any change in the price, followed by sharp spikes up. We've just had the latest spike up of around 30p or so. Whether that is the end of this spike for a month or two, or whether the current spike has a bit further to go is guesswork). I'm very happy with a share that performs like that).
If there isn't enough here to tempt anyone else into buying Toluna then have a look at RNOW and YOU. Until the rise this week RNOW was significantly cheaper than TOL and YOU. YOU shares have rocketed more than TOL partly helped by the fact that they are better known in this Country than TOL.
Alternatively, as explained before if not sure about TOL then a compromise is to buy Eurovestech shares instead, as EVT still owns 50% of TOL. EVT have just taken a profit of £4.5 million on the sale of 6.8% of their then 57% stake in TOL. Their buying price btw was about 9p so the latest sale at 185p was at a big big profit. They paid £2 million for their TOL stake and have already taken out £7.4 million and still own 50%!! It was sensible to top slice as like us they don't want too unbalanced a portfolio - and as explained earlier that stake has been sold to top Fund Manager Neil Woodford. He would expect upside from his purchase.i.e that should answer any query as to why sell now if there is further upside. They sold another stake earlier at £1.30.
In theory a rising TOL share price should feed through and give a rising EVT share price too. So far that has not happened. Which means that EVT shares look cheap at 18p. Take out the value of their stake in TOL and around £8 million in cash on their balance sheet, and that leaves the rest of EVT, the brilliant KSS purchase included valued at just £12 million.
Apart from one offs KSS was profitable this year and last, and is forecast (from memory) to make profits of around £2 million in 2007. So have a good look at Eurovestech too, especially so if you like the sound of the on-line research sector but can't make up your mind which one to buy. At least by buying into EVT you have some exposure to the sector and all the other goodies in the EVT basket. That includes a warchest of £8 million or so- and the recent purchase of a stake in Pixology at what looks to be a bargain basesment price. Loads more on EVT on this bb.
A bit of a marathon effort. Hope it is of some use to somebody. I realise TOL and EVT are not the sort of shares that the majority here go for. otoh - they have a high chance of being very profitable INVESTMENTS on a one to three year view, with a good chance of a bid for TOL at some stage. i.e the sort of investment that can help you survive and enjoy this investment game.
I haven't checked re. the lock in, but am almost certain there is one. It was posted about on ADVFN somewhere. To save me searching the detail, does anyone else know? fwiw regardless of that I can't see EVT selling any TOL soon. That's because they clearly have very high expectations of TOL so it would be totally illogical to sell at this stage, when they are very very likely to get a MUCH higher price by waiting until that forecast qaudrupling of profits actually happensAlso we are still at the early stages in a fast growing sector..And/or there could be a bid for Toluna.The TOL share price should go way above current levels given growth prospects both for TOL and this sector. And the positive YOU info. today just reinforces those prospects.
afaiaa Toluna have not yet opened a US office. Obviously the on-line research market there is big - over 30% compared with around 5% so far in Europe. But imvho any UK Company going into the US needs to go in with eyes wide open. So many quality outfits have come to grief there - e.g Marks and Spencer and Dixons. Plenty of opportunties for all three quoted Companies in the UK and Europe first.
As for which one of TOL, YOU or RNOW to choose.......
I don't know enough about RNOW to comment, except that the current lower profit margins and the fact that unlike with YOU and TOL a lot of the proceeds from the float didn't end up in the Company is a bit off putting. Didn't the founders sell over £7 million of their shares at the time of the float???? If so why, and where is that money now? Must try to find the time to find our more about RNOW just in case I'm missing a good buying opportunity - otoh the shares lagging TOL and YOU could be telling their own story.
YOU shares clearly have more momentum than TOL just now. But - see my earlier post - they are significantly more expensive than TOL, even more so after another 10% rise today. Clearly though a top quality Company with the added advantage that so many more people in the UK have heard of YOU compared with TOL.
My choice remains TOL - although I wish I had bought YOU when I so nearly did when the share price was around £2! Both TOL and YOU are top quality Companies. BUT think of those 650,000 plus TOL panellists in 13 Countries compared with the YOU 90,000 mostly in the UK. i.e investors here may not YET have heard of TOL but plenty of top quality Companies have, and with a near 100% renewal rate which shows that they must be very contented with the TOL offering. So I think it is only a matter of time before TOL shares play catch up with YOU.
And don't forget parent company EVT. Their results are due soon.
Edit. One final point. With only around 10% of TOL shares available to investors - for reasons why see my earlier post - any buying is likely to lift the share price very fast. Pre results even buys of just 3000 were lifting the share price. Admittedly today one buy of around 2000 shares hasn't - yet.|
|kenmitch: Apologies for copying the following from the Mike Walters bulletin board. I haven't got time to write a different post today, and with so few readers there shouldn't be any complaints. Obviously ignore the non EVT and TOL bits of this post. Anyone reading it should get the message that I think Toluna shares are very temtpting.
"I know this doesn't compete with the covered warrants some of us are having so much fun with just now. But EVT and now Toluna are two of my sensible investments - i.e not punts. And Toluna has the big advantage of being in a thriving little followed sector that has the potential for HUGE growth, and could well prove to be recession proof. i.e both EVT and TOL are ideal for longer term investments, but should also continue to perform short term as well. Also broker Cenkos has come out with a Toluna buy note, and some of the information and figures in this post are from that note.
That Toluna sector? The one providing on-line solutions and services to the research industry. Now, in Europe just 5% of all market research is internet based compared with over 30% in the US. So just look at the growth potential. The shares in that sector?
Yougov - floated earlier this year. I started monitoring this one just ahead of their results. Didn't buy then at £2, and the share price has gone to £3.I now prefer Toluna - and the Toluna share price has only gone up 50% or so from the float price of 70p to just over £1.
Research Now - also joined the market this year. I haven't followed this one, put off by profit margins half those of Toluna at 12% compared with 25% for Toluna. Their shares have lagged Toluna and Yougov, maybe because they raised less cash for the business at float with a lot of the founders shares being sold, with only around £2 million of the £9 million raised going into the business?
Toluna's maiden results were issued on Wednesday, and have already been posted. The accompanying statement was bland, but perhaps better companies that under promise and overperform, rather than as so often the other way round. And Toluna are certainly performing! e.g profits to the end of September were £0.56 million and they said that current trading is ahead of expectations. Current year revenues have increased by 300% and panellist numbers have trebled to over 650,000 in 13 Countries. This compares with around 90,000 for Yougov almost entirely in the UK. Both have a very impressive client list. Details of some of the Toluna clients - AOL, Peugeot, Aventis, Mercedes and many more of similar quality have been given before.
OK current PE ratios for Toluna seem high, but that's hardly surprising given the huge growth potential. The tax adjusted PE for 2006 is 24 and 17 for 2007. Now these figures do not take into account the forecast QUADRUPLING of profits between 2005 and 2007 thanks to triple digit revenue growth and margin expansion. And that gives a PEG rating of 0.5 for 2006 and 0.4 for 2007 - low for an already successful, profitable and fast growing Company.
Yougov - a top quality competitor is on a much higher forecast PE ratio of 40 for 2006 and 27 for 2007. That's partly because their shares have already doubled while Toluna have "only" gone up 50%. Of course the PE difference could be adjusted by Yougov shares falling back. More likely though in such a thriving sector that Toluna shares will play catch up.
Another key reason why Toluna shares could go up fast is because so few are available. Only 20% are in free float, and of that 20%, 10% or so are in the hands of Invesco and top quality Fund Manager Neil Woodford. Already as happened since this post...
"http://www.michaelwalters.com/board/viewmessage.phtml?&num=82717&last_child=0" \l "82717"
... even small lot buying is lifting the Toluna share price. Even after the results there were only a few trades, nearly all buys and the shares rose around 10% on results day. A couple of small sells yesterday and the shares fell a couple of pence. It seems few know about Toluna - YET.
Another plus is that with over £1.5 million of tax losses the effective tax charge for 2005 is nil, and only 18% for 2006. Taking this into account EPS rises to 4.05p for 2006 and 5.7p for 2007.
There is certainly scope for further earnings upgrades. The planned release of a new suite of Auotomate Survey Products early next year could help.
Recurring revenues are high with current renewal rates of nearly 100% which suggests a lot of very satisfied customers.Apparently there has already been consolidation within the sector, and Toluna are likely to make small earnings enhancing acquisitions too. OR of course they could themselves be a takeover target.
What is really attractive though is the sector itself. Growth is likely to be explosive. e.g The European on-line research market was worth 121 Million Euros in 2004, and will increase by 38% to 167 million Euros in 2005. Toluna's market share is just 3% which is more than Yougov.The on-line market research sector is already expanding by 29% per annum compound. That growth will grow more rapid. Remember - even with this expansion that means only 5% of such research in Europe is on-line compared with 32% in the US. It is of course so much more efficient, quicker, and more profitable than the old fashioned methods of the past. Think how quickly Yougov political surveys are now carried out for example. That's one difference between Yougov and Toluna. Toluna - though much bigger - are not doing politics.
Don't forget that if tempted by Toluna then one way into the Company is to buy shares in my old favourite Eurovestech, as EVT hold over 60% of Toluna, currently worth around 8p of the 15p EVT share price.Significant rises in the TOL share price should feed through to the EVT share price too.EVT shares have ticked up 0.75p post the TOL results. EVT themselves should be issuing their results very soon, and certainly before Christmas. Toluna btw is already a 12 bagger for EVT. Loads and loads on EVT on the EVT threads, including their equally stunning success, KSS.
I've held shares in EVT for years - first started buying at 6p and bought more all the way down to under 2p, and recently purchased more TOL shares at 90p. And I've posted about EVT many times, and still think they are a buy.
I prefer TOL to Yougov (YOU) but YOU too are well worth a look. Wish I had bought them too around £2. Worth keeping an eye on their price too. Any further rise in the Yougov share price without a rise in TOL would of course make TOL even more tempting. Obviously the reverse applies if YOU shares fall - but in view of the huge growth potential of this sector any falls are very likely to prove excellent buying opportunities. "|
Toluna share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange