Taiwan I.T Share Discussion Threads

[kimboy2] 24/10/2013 23:13

Seems as though our Dear Leader has had a change of heart on the French;

hxxp://www.cityam.com/article/1382575896/grizz-has-change-heart-he-embraces-french-way

I hope, and expect, it is dirt cheap.

[kimboy2] 23/10/2013 15:23

CAT Q3 report out today;

hxxp://www.caterpillar.com/cda/files/4509581/7/3Q13%20Caterpillar%20Inc.%20Results.pdf

Basically mining has taken a hammering down 42% overall and 63% in Asia/Pacific. This is compared to 34% and 52% in Q2/13.

Interestingly they say that mining sales have been falling against a backdrop of strong mining production. No doubt this is exacerbated by inventories. However it would suggest that the situation is unsustainable and a strong bounce back may be apparent at some stage, though they are not forecasting it next year.

Anyhow bound to be affecting TWI even though a relatively small part of TWI's revenue.

[kimboy2] 22/10/2013 08:19

For better or worse I still have a fair amount of TWI, well worse actually recently. On October 29th they have their Q3 figures announcement;



There will also be a webcast so we will be able to see if our Dear Leader really does speak pigeon English or whether the transcript writer has dyslexia.

They have been struggling against a backdrop of weak demand and prices and withdrew their earnings guidance in September;

hxxp://www.titan-intl.com/news/detail.php?id=92

This is clearly not good news in the short term at least. The present consensus is $0.25 for Q3/13 and $1.19 for the year. That is a long way down from where we were not 6 months ago.

Part of the problem is no doubt swallowing the acquisitions, however the Caterpillar retail statistics tell the underlying story;

hxxp://www.caterpillar.com/cda/files/4350908/7/2013%20(August)%20Monthly%20History.pdf

Once things turn down they end up a the wrong end of an inventory cycle. However this operational leverage works in their favour once things turn around, as they surely will.

Anyway we shall see what the conference call brings.

[kimboy2] 25/7/2013 23:03

Transcript of the conference call today;

hxxp://seekingalpha.com/article/1573192-titan-international-inc-twi-ceo-discusses-q2-2013-results-earnings-call-transcript?source=email_rt_article_title

I am afraid I am finding our Dear Leader's pigeon English ever more undecipherable. He seems to be just pulling words out of a hat.

Anyway I believe he is quite optimistic.

[strollingmolby] 09/7/2013 23:27

hxxp://seekingalpha.com/article/1532982-titan-international-recent-slide-presents-buying-opportunity

[kimboy2] 02/7/2013 02:14

A bit on Russia but no real numbers;

hxxp://www.rubbernews.com/article/20130701/ISSUE/307019977/titans-taylor-sees-timing-right-to-enter-Russia

There doesn't appear to have been any official announcement yet.

[kimboy2] 27/6/2013 18:06

Yes indeed. Clearly nothing is idiot proof.

[strollingmolby] 27/6/2013 17:56

Hi Kimboy,

Did you mean to post this link, for article out today on SeekingAlpha?

hxxp://seekingalpha.com/article/1524372-buy-titan-international-an-abnormal-opportunity-in-tires

[kimboy2] 27/6/2013 16:43

One thing they say is certainly true;

Titan has a poor record in communicating to the street quarterly earnings which has led to a gappy stock price around earnings

I presume brokers don't understand Morry Taylor's pigeon English any more than I do. Probably makes it quite a nice trading stock.

[kimboy2] 07/6/2013 21:51

A profit warning of sorts;

hxxp://seekingalpha.com/news-article/6772112-titan-international-announces-status-update-on-possible-russian-acquisition?source=email_rt_mc_press_0

Doesn't look that bad to me. Our leader does say;

Overall, I still see this year as a record year and one that will set the course for Titan's growth."

The consensus forecast for this year is $2.11 and last year's result was $1.83 so I presume he is predicting somewhere in between.

The Russian move looks sensible.

[kimboy2] 07/6/2013 06:27

Seems as though something is cooking in Russia;

hxxp://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/titan-to-enter-russian-tire-market/481259.html

For some reason ADVFN has decided to put x instead of t in links so it will need adjusting if you are interested.

[venture traveller] 20/5/2013 12:41

I suspect ii's getting back in on the back of DJ frivolity, and our leader's bullish outlook.


I reckon we'll be back to the high's and surpassing as long as the DJ keeps on steaming.


Yup, still here.

[davidosh] 16/5/2013 09:47

I am too !

[stemis] 16/5/2013 09:41

No, I'mm still here

[kimboy2] 15/5/2013 18:09

I suspect I am on my own but some decent results from Deere. 9% revenue last year and forecast 7% this year.

Also our leader;

[kimboy2] 25/4/2013 23:20

The transcript of the conference call in our CEO's customary pigin english. It is quite optimistic - I think.

[kimboy2] 25/4/2013 17:18

It would seem the conference call went down well. I didn't think that the numbers were particularly impressive especially when the acquisitions are taken.

I noticed they got $45m compensation for the earthquake just to rub salt in it.

[kimboy2] 18/3/2013 20:43

Yes quite a good update I thought. Obviously good to have an agreement but 6% over 4 years looks good which they think they can offset.

Also 300 additional workers is not insignificant given they have a total workforce of 6,300 worldwide.

[venture traveller] 18/3/2013 19:50

Bullish talk from Maurice. You can sense that he is relieved the USW have agreed the new contract.

' Everyone at Titan is looking to increase output, improve quality and on time delivery to our customers. We are anticipating that over the next few weeks we will be adding approximately three hundred to the workforce to increase the output of tires. '



IMO, this is a great time to buy into Titan, or add more. $30 target within 6 months. Mmm, I sound like one of those rampers.

Hope this is helping someone.

[venture traveller] 18/3/2013 14:29

The USW have accepted Maurice's 'new agreement', so onward and upward. Can't you just hear the sighs of relief.

The membership here in Des Moines has voted to accept the proposed agreement. The membership in Freeport has also voted to accept the proposed agreement. Bryan has voted to accept the proposed agreement. I would like to thank all the brothers and sisters that came out to vote and remember you are the union.

[venture traveller] 11/3/2013 13:14

Probably see an uptick Friday if we get news that the union have agreed the new plan.

I have a feeling it is our old friend 'Italian earthquake' that is dampening the general outlook, as Titan Europe seems to be dragging TWI down, and will not be rectified until the insurance settlement. Can't see us getting much improvement in the price at the next quarter earnings unless these two items are entirely resolved.

VT.

[kimboy2] 28/2/2013 18:12

A bit more guff;



However the best reason to make a case for a long sided trade has nothing to do with a potential short squeeze or technical analysis. It is firmly my belief that the stock is just plain fundamentally cheap. A recent 16% one day hit, following the 4th quarter earnings report, was a result of a revenue estimate miss that is the equivalent to less than 3% of 2012's annual revenue. Take that overreaction into consideration along with the actual reported revenue of $493.6 million, which annualized out and assuming no growth in revenue puts the company on track for another record year with results that should come in or top $2 billion. Titan's market cap is currently half that number and very attractive at this level.

It is my conclusion that it shows extreme value for the short, mid and long term


Forecasts for this year look to have been downgraded only marginally.