SWP Group Share Discussion Threads

[mudbath] 10/1/2014 17:16

Hello Norbert Colon.
I see the AGM is on Jan 30th.
Could you advise me of the venue and the hour.
Cheers,mud.

[norbert colon] 10/1/2014 13:56

Anyone going to join me at the AGM at the end of this month?

[norbert colon] 17/12/2013 14:05

thanks I have it now - you can delete

[norbert colon] 17/12/2013 13:34

Kemche - and again please.

[kemche] 17/12/2013 13:20

Norbert,
.

[norbert colon] 17/12/2013 11:59

Kemche do you mind posting your email address on here so we can discuss offline? You can edit the post after to remove your email.

Thanks.

[norbert colon] 16/12/2013 15:08

kemche

Interesting to see your post. Firstly I have held SWP on and off since 2009 and currently hold. Secondly I have started to do the same exercise as you; are your numbers for y/e 2014, I assume so (?) but even looking out to 2015, currently I cant get to your figures but have not studied properly, yet.

If you add back in the 821k of exceptionals and 187k of financing costs you get PTP of circa 554k rather than the 626k you get?

What allowance have you made for the 1.9m of investment (lease) for the new plant in Telford?

I have book value going up to around 14.3m for this year (7p / share)

I tend to agree with your sentiment othewise and intent to get a bit deeper into the numbers.

Not sure what price they would realise if they sold up - 1 x sales = 7p / share 1.5 x sales = 10p share so perhaps some upside.

Let me have your further thoughts.

Nobby.

[kemche] 16/12/2013 13:29

At first glance the results appear to be ho-hum but I believe they mask a tantalising prospect of a turnaround. Credit must be given to management for delivering a marked reduction in the debt levels of the company - as they promised! A rare feat for a listed company where the BoD deliver on a promise. We now have a real possibility of the company being debt free in 2014 - and therefore the associated servicing costs of that debt (187k in 2013). The 2013 results are also marred by one-off costs resulting from the closure of the Spanish operations of £1,364k. If we simply eliminate the interest and one off costs we will have an instant uplift to profitability in the order of £1.5m!

As for the outlook, we are informed that "considerable momentum has been created throughout the Group as a result of improved order books. At Fullflow in France we are ahead of budget, in the UK whilst behind budget the Fullflow UK order book is stronger than it has been at any time during the past three financial years. Plasflow is now delivering to the UK nuclear industry and our activities in Fullflow International are expanding with infrastructure projects in new territories."

The slippage in the order for Ulva in 2013 has now been received and will be delivered in the current year. Add to that the new production line becoming operational in January 2014 should ensure an uplift in gross margins at Ulva.

That only leaves Crescent as the fly in the ointment. Unfortunately it is a hostage to what is the UK construction industry and orders tend to be of a lumpy nature. All we need is a fair wind and some of the lumpy orders to fall into 2014. The prognosis at the date of the publication of the final results seem to be favourable as we are informed "Post the year end, there have been signs that the not inconsiderable patience and financial investment in Crescent during the period of the last five years is about to be rewarded as the order book has swelled and encouragingly now contains projects with regional contractors and domestic projects. As the sector begins to recover, Crescent's brand, core skills and capabilities are intact and ready to serve increasing demand at the quality end of the market."

So absent any analyst's note I shall have a stab at estimating 2014 numbers based on two scenarios:
1. Status quo at the turnover level gives us the cost savings from the one off costs and the interest saved resulting in a PTP of £626k.
2. Factor in growth as per the above narrative (20%), the uplift in margins at Ulva and a return to "normalised" GP and operating margins gives us a clean £1.3m to £1.4m at the PTP level - or a circa 10PE.

I have not factored in the cashflow multiples on our valuation.

Given that the major holders collectively control nigh on 49% of the company the end game must surely be to offload the company at a reasonable price.

All the above IMHO, no advice intended etc. DYOR and let's see how this play out.

[trentendboy] 10/12/2013 10:02

Good to see them making the tough decisions and keeping the dividend.

Hmm, city like it - seems fine given the Spainish difficulties.

[glennborthwick] 10/12/2013 08:22

interesting results

[trentendboy] 21/9/2013 20:27

Anything better?

Still holding. Could bounce back nicely

[norbert colon] 21/9/2013 15:48

Transvaal etc

You may be interested in this and I would of course welcome any feedback.

hxxp://boards.fool.co.uk/swp-plc-a-slinky-12887112.aspx

Thanks

[transvaal] 05/2/2013 15:17

It seems that smebody is unloading a largish parcel of stock at the moment.
Not a wise move in my opinion.

[norbert colon] 16/1/2013 19:08

Its incredible but looks like we will be debt free (or even in net cash) by 2013 results, I estimate book value will be circa 18m or 9p share, net current assets around 2p and they have some potential very exciting prospects. Other metrics such as 40% gross margin, no interest costs (once debt eliminated), treasury stock on the books, reasonable CAPEX, low depreciation all bode well. Totally kicking myself for not adding more over last few months but cant win them all and happy to be a holder going forward.

[transvaal] 16/1/2013 16:01

Its very odd isn't it.
Virtually no stock changing hands yet a steady climb.
However I'm not complaiming

[spookies] 16/1/2013 12:06

Ticking up again. Is there some news comming?

[transvaal] 21/12/2012 11:45

The share price seems to be creeping up despite a very low turnover of stock.
Seems the M M S are short of stock perhaps

[norbert colon] 06/11/2012 10:51

Very interesting and re-enforces the potential the group has. I have held for a while and see no reason to do anything than hold or potentially add.

I would be interested to hear any comments from others out there.

I have personally worked with Fullflow before in respect to siphonic specifications and (as Warren buffett says) you want to invest in companies that are market leaders i.e. if you think of Syphonic systems you do think "Fullflow".

I was interested to hear that they worked on the NDIA in Doha - as i write this I am in Doha as well...

I am not so informed about ULVA and if anyone can add anything i would be pleased to hear from you.

Nobby

[sammy_smith] 06/11/2012 10:04

Interview with SWP Group.

Click on the link below to listen:

[norbert colon] 05/11/2012 17:34

I am gutted i didnt add at 4p as they were flashing at me as undervalued but until I heard some news I was reluctant to invest further. I am now at just under breakeven but these are great results, strong (and strengthening) balance sheet, some significant opportunities and seems like a general positive outlook. PE for 2012 is high and trading at book value they are a good hold at current price but if the royalty payment is credited back and they generate some sales growth they will be on a single digit PE for 2013 hence a potential buy for the braver amoungst us....nobby

[mountain man] 05/11/2012 15:46

transvaal

Agreed. Exiting from Hylam etc shows they are focused and determined to make progress in these difficult times. Tough decisions - but they will be all the better for making them in the future. DYOR

[transvaal] 05/11/2012 11:58

Considering the economic situation these are excellent results

[spookies] 23/8/2012 10:43

Ticking up. Must be apearing on some radars by now.