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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sweett Grp | CSG | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 41.25 | 01:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41.25 |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 10/7/2016 08:54 by norbert colon In case any investors missed it:http://www.invest |
Posted at 30/6/2016 07:54 by norbert colon It's a done deal at 42p and has been a great investment for me. Excellent company and hopefully they will thrive under Currie and Brown.I hope investors have found my posts useful. |
Posted at 24/6/2016 20:27 by norbert colon JimmyGiven WSP's own financial strength and their strong desire to grow to a headcount of over 40,000 staff, I would not rule out WSP putting in a competing offer along similar terms.Quite extraordinary that a short term loan has been offered by C&B.A price in the 40-50p area was clearly more in-line with a lot of investors expectations although with the banks not playing ball a 35p offer was not totally unreasonable. |
Posted at 08/3/2016 21:22 by norbert colon Whum - apologies, however, you will be surprised at the number of investors (or Joe Public) who mistakenly think that consultants do contracting (i.e. build things) or that all consultants are architects. I will get back off my box! |
Posted at 04/3/2016 09:26 by jimmywilson612 It will take time for investors to rebuild trust in this company, need a nice steady year to really start this moving forward, will be at these levels for now and for the rest of the year in my opinion |
Posted at 01/3/2016 15:07 by norbert colon You have to ask yourselves as an investor how much would I be willing to pay for long standing UK business with 500+ staff (mainly fee earners), each earning around GBP65,000 of revenues per annum?Yes, they have debt but its manageable. What is of more interest is the staff expertise and client list and I would be happy to put my neck on the line and suggest that a 'market' valuation GBP 15m undervalues this business considerably and is a drop in the ocean for some of CSG's peer group (both UK and internationally) who I suggest would be foolish not to be taking a long hard look at the proposition. |
Posted at 21/2/2016 20:41 by norbert colon Revenues for the UK / European business (the remaining business after the recent APAC sale and MENA closure) were circa GBP 51m in 2015 and if you look back to 2007 when the whole Group revenues were of a similar figure, their operating margin was in excess of 9% and eps >7p. On this metric and assuming a reasonable PE of 10 would give a share price of around 70p.Also at revenue of circa GBP 50m and assuming a typical P/S ratio of around 0.7 would equate to a market cap of GBP35m. With 68.7m shares in issue this would give a share price of around 51p. In 2007 they delivered PTP of circa GBP 4.5m; assuming a reasonable ratio of 8 x PTP derives a mcap of GBP 36m - again circa 50p share price Yes, the P&L and balance sheet is not going to look great for YE Mar 2016 and we now know that they have ongoing liabilities re: the SFO case until YE Mar 2018 but taking a long term view and with Doug McCormick's intention to grow the business to GBP200m of revenue a share price of 50p seems perfectly acheivable. Overall NAV of CSG will possibly end up in the GBP 8m area once all the known liabilities are accounted for and the lions share of that is goodwill (GBP 7.3m as of Mar 2015), so on that basis a GBP35m mcap / 50p share price seems pretty steep. That said, P/B ratios vary in this sector (for those listed) from around 1 x (RPS) to over 5.5 x (ATK). Clearly the balance sheet needs some attention but I am pretty sure the Board are fully aware of this. There is a chance therefore that they do a small equity fund raise but I am not overly concerned about this. The bottom line is that there is a now a very distinct possibility that CSG will be acquired by a larger player in the market as the services they offer are fairly specialist and typically offer good margins. You only have to follow the company to see the large number of contracts they continue to win and with their efforts now fully focussed on their key sectors and without encumbrance of the SFO case, I am happy to remain a long term shareholder and look forward to some more positive news flow moving ahead. They remain my second largest holding behind Waterman (WTM). Always keen to hear other investors thoughts. |
Posted at 14/2/2016 21:05 by norbert colon I attended Southwark Crown Court on Friday for the Sweett Group sentencing and thought it worth posting the salient points here as follows. I have also provided a link to some press coverage which largely concurs with my own notes:Positive Points: - Defence QC noted in dialogue with the Judge that the SFO are not in the business of putting companies out of business and the Judge noted that indeed "this is not the case here". This is a very important point and one that I am sure some have considered until now as a possibility (i.e. the company folding). A huge relief. - Any fine / penalty will be 'affordable' and the defence QC highlighted CSG's cashflow statement to March 2016 and balance sheet / debt profile to demonstrate what was, or in fact, what was not affordable. As highlighted in the article above, a fine of GBP 2.5m was seen as potentially not affordable. From my understanding of the various 'steps' forming Section 7 of the Bribery Act, the fine could be anywhere from around GBP 1.5m to GBP 3.5m depending largely on specific factors such as the gross profit made on the contract in question, culpability category (a multiplier of which may be as low as 100% or could be as high as 300%), whether 'harm' was caused and finally 'adjustments' for things such as self reporting (to the SFO) which they did, a guilty plea, and how much they cooperated. The defence also stated that whilst the Board / Group tried to resolve the issue, the management of CSI did not assist. It was made clear by the defence that the Board of CSG had been majorly overhauled since the situation came to light and that the 3 key staff from CSI at the centre of the case were no longer employees. The MENA business had also be closed. - The defence noted that CSG were a very well respected UK company trading since the 1920's and with hundreds of UK employees working on numerous projects such as schools, hospitals and even courts (irony....). The company had already paid a 'huge' financial cost (lawyers fees, closing MENA etc). Negative Points: - The prosecution (whilst very hard to hear from the public gallery) was robust in its case and went into details of the history of the case (much of which is covered in the press report) although my takeaway was that they have already admitted guilt (Dec 2015) and hence the main issue to resolve is the quantum of the fine as well as ensuring shareholders and their clients that such an event will never occur again. The prosecution referred to the recent other SFO case against Standard Bank where their fine was equal to the fee / profit they obtained x 300% x 0.66. For CSG this would equate to a fine of circa GBP 3.2m although as noted in the press coverage there was further discussion of a sum in the order of GBP 2.5m although my understanding was that this did not take into account a number of factors put forward by the defence. - Clearly CSG are going to be fined a 7 figure sum and no doubt incur other costs. The results for 2016 and 2017 are hence going to look pretty sick. - The prosecution noted that KPMG's audit reports (the first in 2011) was not acted upon by the Board and highlighted some serious misgivings re: their Middle East operations. Even in 2014 there were still unresolved issues. A further comprehensive report / audit was done in 2015 and my understanding is that this has been fully acted upon although shareholders should be given evidence of this. - Potential reputational damage. I would argue that CSG have a large number of loyal and long standing UK clients which I would hope will stand by the company given that this case is purely Middle East based. In Summary: I went into the court expecting to hear a fine in the sum of GBP 1m to 3m so I am pleased that this indeed seems to be the likely outcome. Clearly this has cost CSG a lot of money and I am sure is an episode that they want to put very firmly behind them. Whilst their results for 2016/17 are going to take a big hit, they now have streamlined business (no APAC / MENA) and can move ahead to return to rebuild the reputation it deserves. In my mind there is no doubting the quality of this business and from an investment perspective assuming a 2-3 yr horizon I am sure there will be a significant re-rating off the back of the buoyant market in which they now operate. Short term I can see the share price remaining weak and possibly seeing a sharp spike down; for long term investors who know and understand the CSG business I would argue this will be a buying opportunity. Final sentencing was adjourned as per the RNS on Friday - this may take place on Friday 19th February although TBC and I expect to see another RNS this week. Any errors or omissions in the above notes are purely my own. Good luck to all. |
Posted at 27/11/2015 15:15 by norbert colon Yes there does appear to be some large trades going through this week and I would expect to potentially see an RNS next week. The current circumstances of the pending results, MENA business strategic review and ongoing / overhanging SFO investigation is clearly unsettling a lot of investors and understandably so.Certainty is needed to bring stability. |
Posted at 02/10/2015 13:14 by norbert colon Directors bought 232,000 shares at around 24p in April but I agree that further purchases would be nice to see although even for them, the uncertainly of the SFO is the same as for private investors.Debt will be reduced considerably by the sale of the APAC business so this is in hand - just need to wait for the sale to go through. I am hoping for at least GBP 7m but economic / macro factors are not on their side. Happy to be patient. |
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