|Signet Gbl GBP
||ORD NPV GBP
||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
|Equity Investment Instruments
Real-Time news about Signet Gbl GBP (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|deepvalueinvestor: I agree tiltonboy, it does amaze me that previous management did a month by month liquidity profile and could be so far out after only one month! I think we were all assuming that the end Jan cash figure was simply funds winding up last month and that it would be 13p ish. I will raise this with Numis tomorrow.
However, the bigger picture is that the nav is racing away from the share price and this can only be good news for patient shareholders.|
|deepvalueinvestor: Nav showed modest gains in the underlying assets on top of the expected currency boost. This means that a current currency adjusted nav should be 98.1p as we creep towards the 100p mark and the long term bull case strengthens again.
However, as I suspected after the conference call, the cash figure is less than the previous management's estimate ( guesstimate, in reality). The indication was 13.9p per share of cash but current figure is 7.6p. This means that you are paying 48.9 p for 90.5p of estimated non cash assets and this represents a 46% discount.
At this stage we don't know if the shares are unfairly cheap but I feel relaxed about my stake as I can take a 3 year view.Although I have been lobbying for some currency hedging back to sterling, to lock in some of the recent gains, I am in a minority so expect our fortunes going forward to be tied to the expertise of Gottex and the level of weakness in sterling.
On balance, marginally better than I expected and I would expect to see a further upwards rerating of the share price over the next few months to 60p+. Not exciting stuff but steady as she goes until we get a full report from Gottex.|
|deepvalueinvestor: But why would us$ holders be selling when the recent weakness in sterling is not yet reflected in the share price? Indeed they have already taken the pain by holding something with us$ assets that is listed in the uk!
In passing, I am assuming liquidated assets are held in sterling so the currency issue becomes slowly less relevant - this would the ideal scenario for uk holders if we can lock in sales when we are at $1.57 exchange rate.
However, the quality and liquidity of the tail is indeed the concern. I have a conference call with new management soon and will get a better idea now that they have had a chance to kick the tyres. I would want them to mark down the nav if they really don't think it is appropriate.
I remain cautious about markets so I am still comfortable paying 23p for the 60.5p-63p of assets with " unknown " liquidity.|
|deepvalueinvestor: We very rarely talk about the bull scenario for sigg but the sterling dollar is sub $1.57 so nav will be at 97p+ depending on underlying performance. Nav surprised on the upside in December despite currency moving against us so is it really in the realms of possibility to see nav at 100p+ over the next few months?
What is interesting in this scenario is that if the nav goes up 5%, then the share price would need to go up, say 7% to keep the discount the same. However, my suspicion is that when investors see the nav rising and realise that this includes 15% cash and rising, we may eventually get the rerating we have all been waiting for. If not, 33p+ cash in investors pockets by the autumn should focus minds.|
Liquidity profile and nav has improved since this report. Expect 33p cash per share back by autumn-this is why my allocations are large as I will only be left with 40% of current share price by then. I am assuming at least the current value within two years and then rest is my profit. Clearly current optimism in markets can't do us any harm when trying to exit our investments.
I am always pessimistic but this could actually provide 20% annual returns. The new manager only gets a bonus with 10%+ returns.......|
|deepvalueinvestor: The problem is that these hybrids only cross four times a day so it is not very practical. Sigg also looks to be the exception in that institutions are actually using the 11am and 3pm auctions daily at the moment-this wont last and is only because some institutions are sulking that they underestimated the time scale and some are rightly seeing that the share price is at the wrong level.
Typically, bids and offers are pulled at the last minute so it can be rather misleading but I have used the bid or offer on the screen as a negotiating point with a market maker when dealing at other times. I can imagine the phrase" can you match the auction offer?" Being used more in the future.|
|deepvalueinvestor: Well done Langland. I thought you might be annoyed today tiltonboy by me and others paying 54.25p. I was actually on at 54p for 11am but then someone went ahead of me so i quickly went to the market to buy at 54.25p. I did some more at 3pm.
The reason I don't mind paying up is that I feel a rerating is likely either now or over the coming months. It is anyone's guess what Weiss are doing.
By the end of this month we will have 14p of cash so you are paying 40.25p for almost 80p of remaining assets. I see they improved the liquidity profile slightly in December so we can expect 33p back by autumn so the remaining 60.5p of assets are valued at 21.25p. Others will be doing these numbers and as cash increases, I expect the share price to turn up again, especially if nav holds or actually improves.|
|deepvalueinvestor: Your timing has been better than mine tiltonboy although I did pick up a few more today at 54p. Thinking about it, I have some new cash to invest tomorrow so perhaps I will be able to pick some up at 55p.
One of these days, the share price might actually start recovering and after this nav update, it could be tomorrow.
I think the two lots of 500k was a put through rather than a proper trade.|
|deepvalueinvestor: The advantage of having a 3 year view is that I don't really care if the share price goes up now or in a few months. With 31p cash already indicated by September (I suspect it will be more) one can now buy 62.5p of assets for 23p - my kind of share and is why Sigg could be your best performing investment by the end of 2013.|
Only great news if the share price starts responding and closing the discount to NAV.|
Signet Gbl GBP share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange