Rugby Est It Share Discussion Threads

[ronwilkes123] 20/9/2009 21:24

things looking good then, lets hope we continue to climb closer to our NAV then

Gl all holders

[affc21] 20/9/2009 21:23

The press are picking up (albeit cautiously) on the potential recovery in the real estate sector - probably via brokers such as Bestinvest who have begun recently tipping the New Star UK Property fund again (see the Sunday Times article above) and the IPD (Investment Property Databank) figures, published on Monday, which show that July marked the bottom of the UK property cycle (see IPD news above).

Looks and feels like perceptions/sentiment are turning more positive for the sector.

[affc21] 20/9/2009 21:03

The Sunday Times
September 20, 2009


Where the wealthy are investing their money


Here, we look at five ways the rich are investing their money:

1 COMMERCIAL PROPERTY

The drop in prices has raised rental yields from about 4.6% two years ago, to 7.9%, and affluent investors are buying bargains.

Bill O'Neill, portfolio strategist at Merrill Lynch Global Wealth Management, said: "Commercial property in Europe and the UK has been neglected by investors. Worries about companies' financing persist, but it does mean this area is cheap, particularly in the UK."

Three-quarters of private banks surveyed by Hotbed, an investors' network, said they believed the coming year would be a good time to invest in the sector, compared with only a third in 2008.

Several firms have launched commercial property funds recently. BDO Stoy Hayward Investment Management has just started the UK Strategic Income Property fund with Coba Asset Management and Strutt & Parker, the property consultant. The fund's target is a total return of 10%, with the managers taking a performance fee of 20% of anything earned over that. The minimum investment is £100,000.

Seven Dials Fund Management has launched the Lightstone Prime High Street fund, which will buy shops in towns and cities such as Chester, Kingston and Canterbury. Astrid Cruickshank, the manager, said: "The unprecedented volatility we have experienced over the past 18 months has given rise to an increasing number of opportunities at prices that are very attractive compared with historic levels and offer long-term performance potential."

Clavis Walden is planning to launch the Property Authorised Investment fund in November. It will invest 80% in bricks and mortar and 20% in shares, and aims to pay investors 7% a year.

In another sign that confidence is returning to the market, brokers such as Bestinvest have begun tipping the New Star UK Property fund again. It once held more than £2 billion of investors' money, but is now worth £635m because of huge outflows and poor performance. It is down 23.3% in the past year and is yielding 5.9%, according to Trustnet, the data provider.

[affc21] 20/9/2009 20:54

IPD confirms market reached nadir in July
18.09.09

By James Whitmore

But experts raise fears of 'double dip' to come

It is official. Investment Property Databank figures, published on Monday, show that July marked the bottom of the UK property cycle.

Values rose by 0.16% in August, according to the latest IPD Monthly Index, ending a 25-month peak-to-trough decline in values of 44.2% since the credit crunch began.

This compares with the 43-month decline of 27.1% in the last recession between October 1989 and May 1993.

August's positive yield movement of 0.64% more than offset the -0.48% impact of falling rents, bringing the UK commercial property market back to positive growth for the first time since June 2007.

All-property initial yields have fallen to 7.86%, following drops in both retail and industrial yields to 7.53% and 8.18% respectively.

The key question is whether the recovery in values is sustainable.

Has the market really bottomed out or is there a 'double dip' to come?

'To my mind, it's more likely to be the latter,' said Claire Higgins, head of commercial research at Knight Frank. 'Certainly the worst is behind us and we won't again be seeing pricing decline of the scale of nine, or even six months ago.

'However, the market still lacks depth. Two things are needed for full recovery. First, we need increased lending to ensure a greater range of buyers. Second, we need sellers – but not all coming at once.

'The banks have a role to play there too, with a large quantum of property either already on their books or potentially appearing there in due course following rising interest rates and an increase in tenant defaults.

'What they decide to do with this stock could have a significant impact on the market.'

Higgins predicts a W-shaped double dip – 'a short upturn through this current bout of activity, then a flattening or even slight downturn until the entire balance of the market is restored'.

Noble & Co property analyst Michael Burt believes the three key factors that determine the strength of a recovery are availability of equity, availability of debt and the strength of occupier markets.

'Without all three of the above factors turning positive we do not see a pricing recovery of the like seen in 1993/94 occurring in the next 12 months,' he said.

'The likelihood in our view is that equity will be widely available, debt liquidity will return in a modest way and flat-to-negative rental growth will continue to moderate capital value growth.'

[affc21] 20/9/2009 17:14

FT.COM

Matthew Vincent: Serious Money

Make a happy meal out of more palatable prices:

[cockneyrebel] 20/9/2009 12:26

quiet bb's are a good sign ronwilkes - shows there's little to no hype in the price.

When there's 50 posts a day here that will be the time to get out perhaps.

CR

[ronwilkes123] 20/9/2009 12:03

must admit a little shocked by the lack of interest in this

[qwazi] 18/9/2009 10:45

Bought another 10k this morning.

[cockneyrebel] 17/9/2009 17:46

yes, I struggled to get 15k a few days back - had to beat my broker up to get them.

CR

[ronwilkes123] 17/9/2009 17:20

very difficult to buy these this morning, would suggest not much stock around at all

[qwazi] 17/9/2009 15:32

nice, I see no reason why these shouldn't trade in line with peers now.

[cockneyrebel] 17/9/2009 12:09

Nice breakout confirmation qwazi.

looking like these are on a roll now.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 16/9/2009 10:47

Well it looks cheap to me qwazi and it's breaking out so lets hope so.

I'd have thought these were well worth 55p myself as a minimum.

CR

[qwazi] 16/9/2009 10:00

Is this the beginning of the rerating?
If it traded in line with its peers it would be around 65p. Needs a commitment to start paying a divi but I'm sure that will come in time.

[affc21] 15/9/2009 19:22

From CityWire:

Experts buying bargains in commercial property

[cockneyrebel] 15/9/2009 15:10

Breaking out on the chart.

60p NAV looks like the low imo - which makes these look cheap imo.

CR

[qwazi] 15/9/2009 13:53

bit of life today.

[qwazi] 11/9/2009 15:12

I'm with you affc21 - though it looks like we are the only ones!

Safe as ..err... houses.

[affc21] 11/9/2009 09:57

So with the sharpest month-on-month expansion of activity was in the South East, which also happens to be where RUGB hold approximately 70% their property portfolio.

Looking good - in my view.

[affc21] 11/9/2009 09:42

From the above Savills September Commercial Activity report:

-----------------------------------------------

Regional commercial activity:

compared with one month ago

# Higher levels of commercial activity were recorded in all three regions monitored by the survey in August.

# The sharpest month-on-month expansion of activity was in the South East.
London also registered a solid increase in activity since July.

# The 'Rest of the UK' saw a rise in commercial development for the first time since October 2007.

[affc21] 11/9/2009 09:15

Savills Commercial Development Activity Update: September 2009


Commercial development activity rises for the first time since October 2007. Sentiment strongest for two years.

[affc21] 01/9/2009 18:12

Yes, I can certainly sleep at night with this one...

[qwazi] 01/9/2009 15:09

affc21 - welcome on board. I think this stock has been totally overlooked, certainly judging by the lack of postings here. Looks low risk with decent potential upside. Happy just to sit on it and wait for something to happen.

[affc21] 01/9/2009 12:05

Qwazi - reading the posts with an invested interest,
so Thanks for highlighing this on the CP(plus) thread.

on holiday with the family, so just relying on my mobile to keep up with events.

[qwazi] 01/9/2009 10:35

Anyone else around on this board?