Renova Energy Share Discussion Threads

[jimarilo] 18/12/2007 15:50

Ethanol Stocks Rise For Second Straight Day



Just as sentiment may be on the turn as well ;-(

[bpoole] 17/12/2007 14:38

AIM is a crooked gambling casino
What's the betting all the directors will walk away with a truck load of cash.

[dasv] 17/12/2007 14:32

hmmm... I remember reading that Renova saying they were different from their competitors because of their "tight fiscal control" and now this. Grrr.

[motoben] 17/12/2007 12:28

'Increased bank facilities
In June 2007 the Group increased its $7.2 million bank facility to a $40 million
syndicated debt facility with Standard Bank plc as the agent bank.'

have they blown this increased lending already? they had $3.5m at end of september in cash as well. they must have known that things were going wrong (if they have, dont know yet) so it should have been in the results instead of painting a rosy picture with just a few delays and upgraded facilities and takeover of another company.

[asparks] 17/12/2007 11:52

egoi - prob to GTL too

[egoi] 17/12/2007 11:37

Sorry guys, if ever a chart said it all.

BFC Mark 2. How many more alternative energy stocks building plants will this happen to?

[motoben] 17/12/2007 11:33

oh dear rva suspended, due to clarifing fianincial position, this is just after the results!!

[jimarilo] 17/12/2007 09:42

Ethanol Profitability Rising
Posted by Konrad Imielinski at 12/16/2007 7:51 PM and is filed under Ethanol Prices
January ethanol on the CBOT managed to rise ~ 20 cents this week to settle at $2.08 per gallon. This is a huge relief for ethanol producers considering that March corn made a run of its own, rising ~ 21 cents to $4.38 per bushel. As a result, the gross profit of converting a bushel of corn into ethanol, otherwise known as ethanol's crush spread, reached $1.44. Ethanol's crush spread hasn't been this high for several months.

[jimarilo] 15/12/2007 07:19

Senate approves fuel-economy increase, more ethanol use.

[j5ack5k] 14/12/2007 10:44

DPS - dividend per share.

agree re reduced eps but that is at least a forecast based on current ethanol and corn prices. If industry margins improve, forecasts should improve significantly (for 09 anyway).

btw only 25% reduction in eps forecast for 09. Websites showing the 23.8p figure are just out of date (which is disgraceful but not exactly RVA's fault as their own website has been kept up to date). Current forward PE of close to 4 now.

[motoben] 14/12/2007 10:36

shame those forecasts show a 75% reduction in eps next year from 3 months ago.

what does dps stand for?

[j5ack5k] 13/12/2007 16:42

Brewin Dolphin give this a 1 year target of 80p (from 10/12/07). As their broker they may be showing bias, but at some point these have to represent good value.

[very quick] 13/12/2007 16:08

Bloody hell only worth 38p now? was this not trading over £2.50 not that long ago?
GTL not that much better now 70p was @£3.80 LOL????

[j5ack5k] 06/12/2007 08:51

New forecasts on the website from Brewin Dolphin. Earnings downgraded rating upgraded to "buy"

08 EPS of 0.1p - making PE 450 (ish)
09 EPS 9.8p - making PE 4.5 (ish)

[j5ack5k] 04/12/2007 12:35

Anyone know anything about the acquisition?

[j5ack5k] 04/12/2007 09:28

moto, you summed it up!

I think 10 is online now... although it should have been 32... the extra capacity was reserved for the marketing business presumably i.e. reselling ethanol produced by other companies for a small markup. By 2011 this is supposed to constitute 25% of business (I think)

One thing about the distribution stuff though is that it isn't all purchased... I think a lot is on long term lease so depreciation may not be so much of an issue.

[ben nevis] 04/12/2007 09:20

Masses of info, forests & biofuels

[motoben] 04/12/2007 09:17

ok if they do have 60mg of distribution already and only need around half that next year why are they distributing less than 6mg/yr not 30. seems stupid and the longer it sits idle the depreciation starts kicking in, dragging earning down.

[j5ack5k] 04/12/2007 09:00

"at least there is no one left to sell shares"

LOL too right! :)

They've always responded to my notes, so I may drop them an email. However they don't deliver on what they say they will is my point, so emailing seems fairly pointless.

I think they've ditched torrington II and from the last response I got from Chris Thomas he hinted they may target the Washington market if they move to 10% blend (or somewhere nearby). He said that site would be 50mg.

Totally agree RE distribution network. Again previous notes from the company indicated they already had twice the distribution capacity of all the new production, some 60mg. Because of this, it was making current earning look poor so they would realise massive economies of scale when Heyburn came online as all that infrastructure was paid for and in place. That's why I was so gutted... it should be about now that their earnings kick off and instead it looks like it won't be until the next financial year. My concern is if they don't pull their fingers out competitor plants being built nearby (both Idaho and Wyoming)will get a foothold in those markets.

[motoben] 04/12/2007 08:36

ben nevis - prove it, usa is self sufficient in biofuels, they export to europe the excess, thats where 90% of britains supply comes from. you may find its the poorer countries cutting down their own forests to fuel themselves.
if you are thinking of brazil almost all their cars run on ethanol from sugarcane so its for them.

[motoben] 04/12/2007 08:32

i belive they still have the option of 80 acres next to torrington, they may be thinking with this purchase of the waste to energy company that new ethanol plants are less economically viable now and are trying to diversify. i liked to distribution network they have,(shame they gave no monetary figures for it), if they did build a waste plant there it could be good because they would also be able to take waste from other plants nearby.
go ask why the delays are getting longer. i never received a reply about some question i asked a while ago, you may get lucky. at least there is noone left to sell any more shares

[j5ack5k] 04/12/2007 08:10

Very true... what annoys me is they consistently fail to deliver on their previous targets... either under capacity or over on time frames. GTL have been excellent at this... 3 months ago they were 18 days behind schedule on Heyburn... they are now 3 months behind schedule. WTF?