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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Services Properties Investments | PSPI | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 335.00 | 01:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 335.00 | 335.00 |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 02/10/2012 16:46 by greedfear Nursing homes multiples between 11-13 annual rent, top homes yielding 6.5-7.5%CBRE sees 12.5bn German nursing home investment gap 06 October 2011, 10:20 PM Germany needs 1,400 additional nursing homes by 2030, corresponding to a 6.4bn investment, while a further 6.1bn is needed for refurbishment of existing homes especially in west Germany, according to realtor CBRE. By 2030, 1.2m people will live in nursing homes, up 70% on 2009, with the greatest increases in Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria, Lower Saxony and North Rhine-Westphalia. "The rising demand, due to demographic change, massive population migration to economically strong regions and a decreasing willingness to stay mobile on the part of the elderly, poses a considerable challenge for the industry," said CBRE Head of Research Germany Jan Linsin. Despite the overall trend, demand for places will fall in some regions due to migration and skills shortage. Investment in nursing homes increased in 2010 to total volume of 295m, with most investors being closed or specialised funds. Assets run by creditworthy operators are seen as secure investments due to a stable cash flow. "Nursing home multiples are between 11 and 13 times annual rent," said CBRE's Hartwig von Garrel. "Crucial factors for a maximisation of the multiple are location (federal state and city), condition of the building, occupancy rate as well as the operator's refinancing ability, management experience and reputation. Top assets currently realise 6.5%-7.5% net initial yield. Investment volumes for single assets usually range from 7m-20m." Financing these assets in times of equity shortage due to Basel III can be a challenge as banks are currently concentrating on core business and regular customers. "We estimate that there are only half a dozen banks which are financing these products," said Linsin. "Equity demand has risen and will seldom fall below 40% with margins reaching 200 bp. We see a trend towards equity-strong investors, some of which are financing solely with their own resources." pie |
Posted at 02/10/2012 16:16 by kenny scrubs, I have no evidence on Germany so offer no opinion other than noting that the yield is low at 7.258% therefore not offering great interest cover.PSPI cannot play hardball with the banks because the banks hold all the cards namely the properties. Banks seem to have developed arrangements with third party investors who step in to sell the loans/property so they do get them off their books. I assume you agree that with what is going on with post offices in the US, that they are also unsaleable? |
Posted at 02/10/2012 15:47 by kenny Following on from my above post, I question what is the point of investing in PSPI if a) all the income after expenses needs to be applied to pay down loans, as it has in the last year b) no dividend, c) NAV shrinking as PSPI has to move to "proper" valuations e.g. care homes being sold on 10% yields in the real market d) no further financial support from the 46% shareholder and e) the threat of massive dilution to keep the banks from taking control. It is not an investable company for private investors. As I stated on the Southern Cross board some time ago; leave it to the professionals who - whatever transpires in future - one way or another, will take whatever value remains or whatever loss lies ahead. |
Posted at 28/9/2012 11:43 by loverat Thanks for the advice Kenny. As I say, I think we are completely different types of investor. I have a bit of experience under my belt and I tend not to take too narrow or rigid an approach to investing or rely on the wisdom of so called investment gurus or tipsters. |
Posted at 28/9/2012 11:30 by kenny The gap will not close if it is a real gap. If you wish to take a punt, try the lottery or premium bonds. The spread on PSPI is too big to take any chances and time is not on your side because within a year they have to refinance what they have so far been unable to refinance - so the banks take everything or the company stages a massively discounted rights issue.I am a value investor and tend to use Ben Graham's investing principles, including his saying: "The first rule of investing is not to lose your capital. The second rule is not to forget the first". However, I wish you luck and hope you do not lose too much of your capital. |
Posted at 28/9/2012 09:57 by loverat Well, I suppose we can all analyse and debate these points all day. I still go back to the strategic review where they said they wished to maximise shareholder value and close the gap between NAV and share price This was around 65p at the time when the NAV was £1.30.Now, the NAV is 50% of what is was but we have a share price at 18% of its previous. Some uncertainty removed and the proceeds of any sales going to shareholders. Although I acknowledge there is some uncertainty and doubt at the ability of these directors, I struggle to accept that there is no value here at 12.5p. When the strategic review was announced I regarded this as a 'special situation' share. Now I feel it is simply one of those anomolies on the market you see from time to time. I guess the share price will go down a little more before this finally dawns on investors. |
Posted at 28/9/2012 08:01 by loverat Difficult reading these but do not seem too bad considering and particularly in the context of the current share price. Unless there are any nasties I have missed the share price trading at around 24% of the value of the company.Assets look like they might be sold and proceeds to investors. |
Posted at 07/5/2012 21:52 by scburbs Greedfear, ECDC is a difficult one to value. It has multibagging potential if things go well, but can only fall 100% if they don't! I guess you like your investments high risk/high return! The key seems to be the cash burn and the equity value in both Romanian shopping centres (such as Cascade the largest equity asset which looks in reasonable shape) and Trade Centre Sliven (which appears to hold cash for a development that is going nowhere?). Do you know how much cash is in Trade Centre Sliven and what control they have over getting it back? Really the question here is do you trust the manager (the market doesn't seem to)? They have a choice of calling it quits now (and letting the dogs go) which should generate an excellent profit for shareholders from today's price or ploughing on regardless with the particular danger that recurring losses and cash injections to Galleria Plovdiv (or other dogs) could hurt the equity value. As Galleria Plovdiv is by far the largest asset by value if it is propped up then this could be a serious risk to shareholder funds (as leasing seems very weak). Perhaps they should let it go or only agree to fund in exchange for significant release of banks debts. It is noticeable that despite the discounted valuation none of the normal arbtirage/value activist investors are here. The absence of activist investors reduces the prospects for the managers being kept in check. Given the dependence on limited good assets you need serious local knowledge to invest here, but its certainly cheap. If they had a clear strategy of selling Cascade/Romanian shopping centres once let up, getting the cash back out of Trade Centre Sliven, letting any dogs go and then returning the surplus to shareholders then I would probably be a buyer. However, it looks like they might still try and prop Galleria Plovdiv up which makes them a risky investment. |
Posted at 30/4/2012 10:52 by kenny Indeed, it is interesting that the UK properties are valued at a 7.8% yield despite:1. Their own valuers stating that valuation yields should be between 6% and 13.5%. The average of that is 9.75% but the company has deduced that their properties are so special that they should be valued at an average of 7.8%, which presumably allows for the rising vacancy rates! 2. It is possible to buy a care home on a 12% or more yield so why is any bank looking at refinancing going to accept the company's own valuations against a) the prices being acheived in the market and b) their own valuers much higher average. Management seem to be letting out the bad news in small doses, the only advantage of which is that private investors have time to exit. Leave this company to the professional investors who will take most of any remaining value as a cost of putting up fresh money. |
Posted at 20/2/2012 11:01 by adam February 19, 2012 6:38 pmFour Seasons examining deals to cut net debt By Jennifer Thompson Four Seasons has ruled out selling itself as the care homes group examines options to refinance its debt before a September deadline, saying it has seen a "high level" of interest among potential lenders and new investors. Four Seasons care homes in talks with new investors Four Seasons, Britain's biggest care homes operator, is in talks with potential new equity investors to help the business grapple with its crippling debt burden. By Nathalie Thomas 7:52PM GMT 19 Feb 2012 The company's largest shareholder, Royal Bank of Scotland, and several other investors, are also looking at pumping extra cash into the business, which is responsible for 500 nursing homes and 25,000 residents. Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing, who owns a healthcare business called CK Life Sciences, and private equity group Kohlberg Kravis Roberts have both been linked to a potential deal with the company, which is struggling with £780m of debt. |
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