Prospect EP. Share Discussion Threads

[the analyst] 13/7/2008 01:19

Cheers hosede

This really has been a useful thread, thanks to everyone that has contributed!

[hosede] 13/7/2008 00:28

Analyst
You can buy German Government bonds yielding over 3.6%( eg DE0001141497 maturing Nov 2011). May seem boring but if the pound collapses towards parity with the Euro they will look very tasty (and very safe which at the moment is probably paramount)

[the analyst] 11/7/2008 17:35

Yes, it must be - the share prices of the companies they are invested in haven't changed much over the last few days.

[wolstencroft] 11/7/2008 17:21

I dont know but its trading at some premium to NAV now I think

[andyeds] 11/7/2008 16:18

large seller finished?

[bossman1978] 10/7/2008 23:04

About time, we had a turn around.

[courant] 04/7/2008 10:18

Has anyone ever had any contact with the management here? Or attended the AGM? Curious, because the manager(s) and their companies seem quite obscure. Prospect look like a one man band operating out of Hawaii - their website says they/he (Curtis Freeze) specialises in Japanese equities but that's it. No further track record or anything else to speak of. Similarly, Epicure also looks like a one man band (Leonard O'Brien) with virtually no profile and no visible track record. The only real snippet is here:

Now, all this might not be a problem at all, it's just I like to know who I'm giving my money too and what i might stand to gain by buying into PEJR rather than a couple of J-REITs directly or getting exposure in some other way.

Cheers,

Courant

[bisiboy] 30/6/2008 18:02

this update looks awful
on its way to 30p

[bisiboy] 30/6/2008 17:59

difference both managed by christopher mills, and jit he had no money in but nas he has 25million. that should have told shareholders something!

[davebowler] 30/6/2008 16:17

Guys,many of the trusts you mention I hold- HANA, CED, Aberdeen Sm Cos,Templeton
etc. Theres one other -a back door into Brazil and managed by the HANSA team-Ocean OCN
-it owns a major part of a port business in Brazil and has a large investment portfolio too.
By the way I was put off NAS because of the JIT disaster.

[jmankey] 30/6/2008 16:01

Many buys today soaked up without a move in the SP, especially 400k.

[wolstencroft] 26/6/2008 10:09

courant agreed, I just remember RIT trading on a 20% discount probably back in the late 90s, as it did for years. Look as NAS - an absolutely great IT but no buyers at the moment and a huge discount to NAV - OEICs are so cheap to buy these days that ITs have to offer something more - perhaps you are right that SVM and RIT do.

[courant] 26/6/2008 07:49

wolstonecroft,

I take a slightly different view. First RIT, RUF, HANA, SVG: yes, they're effectively running balanced portfolios but they're definitely not "50% equity 50% bond" outfits tracking indices. Each gives you exposure to a variety of asset classes not easily accessible - in the case of RIT this is their large private equity component, plus their hedge fund/special situation fund holdings. Plus they've been quite nifty in getting asset allocation calls right!

I agree on the disc/prem issue though, purchases need to be well timed but the same is true of any shareholding.

Courant

[dcomd99] 25/6/2008 20:56

With Japanese interest rates at 1%, is the market saying that it thinks lots of Japanese REITs are going to the wall?

[webby] 25/6/2008 20:48

As originator of the thread it is very noce to see the "traffic" going up.
Also thanks to everybody for their research and info. I'm still out but getting very tempted.

[wolstencroft] 25/6/2008 19:11

courant: SVM and RIT both have very interesting and diversified approaches but you pay for that through the premium to NAV. JZ equity used to be quite highly leveraged to my memory but I was an invester about 5 years ago. I would rather invest in individual specialist trust and do the asset allocation myself. Having said that I'm down about 25% average on PEJR!

Specialist Unit Trusts I invest in: CF junior oils, Investec Global Energy, JP Morgan Global Resources, First State Global Resources, Blackrock Gold and General, Close Enhanced Commodities. ITS: Templeton Emerging Markets, Aberdeen Asian Smaller Cos, Aberdeen New Dawn, Atlantis Japan Growth

I'm thinking of buying back into North Atlantic Smaller companies at some stage

www.trustnet.com is a good place to look for both ITs and UT/OEICs

e.g.

[the analyst] 25/6/2008 19:10

Thanks courant, very useful to get more ideas to invest in.

[courant] 25/6/2008 18:47

Interesting discussion guys, this has got to be one of the most informative discussions I've seen on advfn, a credit to everyone here!

I'm having a very serious look at PEJR - I'm very attracted to the idea of holding a income producing asset in Yen as a diversifier, and there seems to be a major valuation anomaly going on with this asset class as a whole. It seems the main drivers that are going to force valuation changes (aside from the soft activism and M&A activity the fund talks about) are: stability of rental streams; performance of the japanese domestic economy; japanese inflation, which may force domestic investors out of safe assets into higher yielding ones. Of these, only the last one is really linked to the credit crunch, and that in a positive way - Japan is possibly the only developed economy where inflation may well be a good thing and provide a bit of extra stimulus! Looks a very good diversifier to me and one which may see attractive returns.

the analyst - have you looked at other investment trusts to get exposure to other markets and/or exotic assets and/or safe havens not available via ETFs? Like: SVM Global (emerging europe, exotics); Ruffer (safe havens); RIT Capital (broad diversification); Hansa (strong emerging/commodity focus); JZ Equity (N American unquoted).... there are more!

Courant

[the analyst] 25/6/2008 15:51

Thanks, a few for me to take a look at there, ISA

Previously, I've only really focussed on individual small cap AIM stocks (apart from my Split Cap mission in 2003), but am looking to diversify.

Even though I'm a professional investor, there is still a limit to how many stocks I can track, so diversifying some of the portfolio into high dividend funds and getting someone else to do the work where it's an area I know very little about could be a good way forward

[isa23] 25/6/2008 15:36

Investec Global Currencies, Investec Africa & Middle East, New Star Heart of Africa, CF Eclectica Agriculture, Blackrock Uk Absolute Alpha, and then a basket of commodities like lcne or aigs etc can be good alternatives. Personally I would never invest directly in a non-uk company. If something goes wrong you can lose quite a lot. Prospect managers are experienced people and hopefully know what they're doing. By buying into them you gain exposure to dozens of companies without having to worry about constantly monitoring them and making buy and sell decisions. If one doesn't perform or has a fundamental problem, the managers sell and move on and the overall impact to you is minimal. If you buy a company direct and something goes wrong, chances are that you can't bring yourself to selling it. That's human psychology. It is definitely worth the 1-2% management fee, IMHO

[lord gnome] 25/6/2008 15:34

Analyst / ISA - thanks for your work on this and your very informative posts. I owuld not have known how to go about finding the information that you have unearthed. It has been on my income portfolio shortlist for some time, but to date, I am relieved that I resisted the temptation to buy any. The yield is soooo tempting, but not at the expense of capital. A small purchase will bre made in due course - but not yet.

[the analyst] 25/6/2008 15:08

The TSE REIT Index is also worth looking at to get a better picture of where they are now and perhaps where they are heading.

My uneducated guess is that if it bounces back to 1600, then we may have seen the bottom. The bottom may turn out to have been in April when I guess people sold after many (all?) REITS going ex-divi



Charts are not my speciality, though.

[the analyst] 25/6/2008 15:00

Thanks ISA23. That's good to know there has been no cross selling.

Yes, I'm thinking of putting about 1 or 2% of my portfolio into this or directly into REITS to balance the risk in my portfolio and enjoy dividends. I'm holding off for the moment, tracking the individual REITS. I want to do a bit of research into each of them to assess the overall risk a bit better.

Out of interest, what other ways have you (and others here) diversified to get exposure to other currencies and other markets that are not UK- or US-linked?

I think I would like to get about 5-10% of my portfolio into Asia over the next few months

Cheers

t.a.

[the analyst] 25/6/2008 14:06

Cheers wolstencroft.

So, if we expect the price to rise (which we should if we are investing in the first place!) then the gearing upside more than compensates for the charges. Which if I understand correctly, means that an investment in PEJR is higher risk than investing in the REITS themselves, but can give a much greater reward.

Are the REITS themselves generally highly geared up too and do they have investments in each other iike the Split Caps did?

Trying to assess the risk...