Omega Share Discussion Threads

[moonlight83] 29/7/2008 12:31

Thanks Mikey.
"En block to building firms"...this is not good news. So, I take it a decline in turnover is likely to happen, and this can be linked to the housing market - would you agree? The next question is if the decline could in the double-digits region. I'm not sure how to come up with an estimate.

From a fundamental analysis point of view, market cap is almost equal to Net Assets. There's no debt sitting on the Balance Sheet, which is a huge advantage for a small-cap in the current environment. It just doesn't seem right that a company with impressive trading performance like Omeha should be trading at no premium to Book Value. Even if we assume a projected cashflow from ops of c. 5m per annum (ie lower than 2007) for the next ten years, the cumulative discounted figure (5%) is in excess of 38m. And this assumes that these guys are not going to grow at all for 10 years!

It seems that the stock has been unfairly punished. Although a correction was predictable on the former price of £3, £1 doesn't look adequate either.

[mikey34] 28/7/2008 20:12

moonlight,

I'm fairly sure they actually sell the kitchens directly to the trade as opposed to homeowners....ie...en bloc to building firms.I may be wrong or they could have changed that policy.

[moonlight83] 28/7/2008 10:47

Folks, I was wondering if low-activity in the housing market is going to hurt Omega directly or indirectly. It is known for a fact that the number of new homes being constructed/sold has decreased significantly. If Omega kitchens are mainly sold to home owners in the process of furnishing their new dwelling (e.g. the happy couple), in this case the house market slowdown could be a direct problem to the co. On the other hand, I'm trying to imagine in what other situations people buy new kitchens: is it necessarily when they buy a new house? If not, (and here comes the important question) what percentage of their sales would be linked to situations where a house purchase/sale is not involved at all?

I hope the question won't sound silly, but as a miserable tenant non-owner, I haven't a clue on how to buy a new kitchen and I am trying to figure out how strong these guys can be in the current environment.

Thanks.

[pbracken] 23/7/2008 09:08

oranges - I gave you duff info yesterday; L&G are buyers, not sellers. Don't know whose been selling in volume.

[oranges] 22/7/2008 16:40

Thanks, staying out of this for a while.

[pbracken] 22/7/2008 16:29

Look at the trades, oranges - the announcement followed a few days later.

[oranges] 22/7/2008 16:26

Where did read that L&G sold at 90p? really bad news that, I agree these will drift if there is an overhang of stock. I imagine that other big shareholders may take the herd instinct and flee!

[pbracken] 22/7/2008 15:50

That 3m shares sold by L&G at 90p will a while to clear - the first time since I've been following this stock you can pick up 20K, and sell 500 shares. It's likely to drift lower, short of news...

[oranges] 22/7/2008 12:35

These have now fallen below the placing price of around £1.13 ! Its amazing really, its a cause of concern that he price is around £1.00, is it just the market tremors or is it more sinister?

[pbracken] 22/7/2008 09:05

The balance sheet is fine - £4m in cash, no debt, and all the property is freehold and worth a bob or two. On the face of it, OME looks fabulous value given the current guidance (it said it would beat last year's profit result), but I will wait until H1 before deciding on taking a position.

[mikey34] 22/7/2008 09:00

oranges,pbracken,

I live about 3 miles from Omega and held them before selling in April 06(too early for the big rise but avoiding the current rout obviously).At the AGM we were taken round the whole operation and it was VERY IMPRESSIVE.The finished products were also on display in a showroom and looked superb to me.....the top of the range stuff was excellent.My concern might be that they hugely expanded at exactly the wrong point in the cycle...ie...just before the credit crunch arrived.Haven't reresearched yet so don't now how the balance sheet looks.

[oranges] 22/7/2008 08:17

pbracken, I know the history and it concerns me. Just as well I did not buy, weakness in the price continues. Couple of recent RNS announcements seems to indicate institutional selling, though that would need to be confirmed.

[pbracken] 21/7/2008 12:48

Does look tempting, oranges - though Bob Murray was involved with Spring Ram; he left long before the accounting issues savaged the shares in that company, but a tainting by association remains (of sorts). I notice, too, that a few directors sold options and Murray dumped a few million around 300p last Sept - good timing, with handisight.

Probably prudent to wait for the H1 update.

[oranges] 15/7/2008 14:09

Very tempted at this price to buy in. Whilst we may be in the rip of a recession, Omega will be well placed to take advantage when the upturn comes. Competitors with outdated technology and probably debt may well go to the wall in this downward cycle.

[oranges] 10/7/2008 15:22

Inevitable the decline in the value of this company, no matter how well run, no one can defy the decline in the UK house building and credit crunch that has derailled the economy. Best hope is that weaker competition will fail and when the good times return, Omega will hopefully be well positioned to take a dominant position in the market place.

[maksud] 05/3/2008 07:32

great results in current enviroment.doubling of size by 2010.this is a pure growth stock.

[oranges] 20/1/2008 15:00

I was really disapointed to see that John Lewis have stopped selling any of the Omega range of kitchens. Spoke to salesman and he said, that they were selling own label (Jonelle) as policy, shame as Sheraton had a certain cache when displayed in John Lewis stores.

[oxfordrun] 27/9/2007 20:12

no acquisitions in current climate, more of a cost cutting exercise and try to flood the market with more showrooms. imo this could end up being fatal with too many outlets too close and starting a price war on a local basis not good for the industry... a wider geographical spread of the product gives that edge and do not run before you walk springs to mind. they have not long been listed and are spending the cash wisely with the factory expansion etc now deep breath and remain the size they are and look a good prize to bag for anyone looking. do not get greedy omega! leave that to mfi etc

[oranges] 15/9/2007 14:01

My posting was dated 22nd July 2007. I think the latest figures are for January to June 2007, they are damned good as well. Trouble now though in my opinion is consumer confidence and economy, disposable income being hit now, hard to see a great deal of organic growth here, however they are without doubt financially strong, maybe acquisition time?

[oxfordrun] 04/9/2007 19:32

not true neefax if it's a case of stay put then lets have a new kitchen and if we do move then have a new kitchen as well

[neefax] 22/7/2007 19:27

Looks as though the recent interest rate rises may have caused a stall in sales, fact is, no matter how good the product annd service is, if customers are being squeezed by lack of cash, the last thing they will be willing to spend money on is a new kitchen and all the expense associated with it, i.e tiling, decorating, electrical appliances and such mouunt up. I guess that Omega will hold its own, but little prospect of significant growth I think.

[oranges] 02/5/2007 18:58

Hi, yes I'm still in, though I have taken profit and sold 75% of my holding. average sale price was 325 pence, so I did ok, hindsight is a wonderful thing, clearly would have possibly achieved 15p more if I waited. I'm concerned about mortgage rate and general economy, therefore wanted liquidity. No doubt Omega are resilient but..... markets get jitters and not much is immune.

[omega] 27/4/2007 21:02

is there no stopping this one...oranges are you still in?

[oranges] 22/3/2007 15:56

Directors sold a heft chunk of stock on day of results at £3.00 per share. Apparently to ease liquidity.