Northern Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[maxk] 05/6/2011 20:58

Oh come estseon, you know full well why the directors havent bought!

[soulsauce] 05/6/2011 20:34

Ahh yes........once upon a time!!

[estseon] 05/6/2011 20:27

Why haven't directors bought aggressively?

The Company is about to report - they're not allowed to

[maxk] 05/6/2011 19:14

According to the header.


Market Cap £71.90 mill.

Turnover = £5.08 mill

Profit = - £3.12 mill

Earnings PS = -£02.90


Our main man might find himself answering some awkward questions.

[bionicdog] 05/6/2011 16:04

He actually raises his voice quite often when anyone dares to question his strategy. This year's AGM should be a humdinger.

[sg31] 05/6/2011 15:50

Because they aren't aggressive. Never have been...never will be. They would have to use a dictionary to look up the meaning of the word.
Mind you DM nearly raised his voice once when someone forgot the hobnobs.

[maxk] 05/6/2011 15:50

What reason would stop you from filling your boots if you was a director?

[themoreiseeyou] 05/6/2011 15:44

Why haven't directors bought aggressively?

[valhalla3] 05/6/2011 15:22

bak from baff tish weekend supped sum luvly alez nyce tik up on fri ne1 no y? lol just tehm pesky badgaz again Y=#

[bionicdog] 05/6/2011 11:42

Only a handful of buys at that price. They must use the Charles Clore hindsight trading platform.

[growbag] 05/6/2011 09:44

Yes, it did touch 69p. They got lucky though to pick them up at the bottom.

[forcemode] 05/6/2011 03:31

During the carnage did the buy price go as low as 69p? Maybe it did but I didn't think so!

[soulsauce] 05/6/2011 02:16

"and secondly, and increasingly promising, is that the company is making moves towards drilling its high impact Italian exploration targets"

LOL!!

[law61] 04/6/2011 23:50

Extract from TW's - Smaller Comp Fund June Update -

Down yes, out no.

It would be easy just to write about stocks where we look smart. But honesty, warts and all is better. And so we start with a comment about a situation that has not covered us in glory. Yet.

On 27th May 2011 Northern Petroleum announced that it was revising downwards its 2011 production forecasts and making changes to its reserve estimates following an ongoing economic and technical evaluation of the Group's Dutch assets. The adjustments concern three of the company's five gas fields, which has ultimately led to total Group 2P reserves being revised down by 12.6% to 91.7 million barrels of oil equivalent. In regard to 2011 production; Grollo, which was hoped would assist with bringing daily production levels up to 2,250 boe for the current year looks likely to fall short of expectations due to continued technical issues. This is also the case at Geesbrug following the delay of a second production well which is now likely to be pushed back to 2012.

However, the news was not all bad. The company announced that firstly, its production test at Markwells Wood is expected to commence this summer, and secondly, and increasingly promising, is that the company is making moves towards drilling its high impact Italian exploration targets. We reckon that in all reality the UK asset will be eventually be sold, but the development of the Italian projects is set to add an increasingly large amount of tangible value to Northern.

Although there were snippets of good, all in all the news from Holland were bad and was taken badly by the market. Currently trading at 77p Northern is capitalised at just £71.7 million. However, we reckon that as always the market over reacted to the surprise news and missed a couple of important snippets which provided the Fund with an attractive buying opportunity. We bought aggressively at 69p.

For the first four months of 2011 average daily production out of the Dutch operations was recorded at 1,900boe. This implies almost a 60% increase on 2010 average daily production output which the company is expected to report revenue of €15 million from (the company is however now expecting to report a loss for the full year following non cash impairment due to the Dutch downgrades). We believe EBITDA of €20 million is attainable this year if the first quarter production levels are at least sustained and reckon a prudent multiple of four is justified here. This currently values the Dutch operations at £70.8 million or 76p which pretty much covers the current valuation. In addition if we apply an undemanding £2 a barrel to the Italian assets this values the company's interest here at circa 97p.

There is also the wildcard Guyane Maritime permit, off the coast of French Guyane, where Northern holds a relatively tiny stake in a potentially vast new oil asset. The main players are Tullow oil, Total and Shell and according to Merill Lynch Tullow's 27.5% Zaedyus and Matameter prospects, which are set to be drilled shortly, could be worth an unrisked $1.8bn. This attributes a value of roughly £51 million, or 55p to Northern's holding. A successful drill campaign here would open up the whole area to wider interest.

The news was evidently bad but with the Dutch operations going a good way to cover the current market valuation this leaves a very strong balance sheet, UK assets which we believe could be sold for £10 million in a fire sale, the developing Italian project, and the Guyane wildcard (not to mention net cash of £15 million) thrown in for free. We waded in and bought a further chunk following the news as we see real value here. The biggest danger is that with the shares worth anything up to 250p on a sum-of-the-parts break-up value a cheeky cash bid at 120p would, we fear, be hard to defend given the recent news.

[bionicdog] 04/6/2011 20:48

I try not to be rude to you Imp , but you make it soooooo difficult.
If you walk into a pub and don't really like the locals , do you go elsewhere or ask them all to leave?

[soulsauce] 04/6/2011 20:37

Here's something interesting.

If you have heard a better version of Robbie Williams Angels I want to know.

Phe-nom-i-nal and it was live too:-



A true Soul Diva and big knockers as well ;-)

Enjoy NOPpers.

[sg31] 04/6/2011 18:59

Imperial, you could post something interesting. No let me rephrase that...you could try and post something interesting.

[maxk] 04/6/2011 18:01

Thats right imp, but why are you adding to it?

[imperial3] 04/6/2011 16:10

Yet more boring drivel.

[bionicdog] 04/6/2011 10:25

Derby day today , the drinkingest day of the year round these parts. One year I saw an irish gentleman collapse into a bunker walking across the golf the course to get to the track before noon. Sadly he never got out. At least I've always managed to get to the track and normally only collapse in the late afternoon/evening.

[bionicdog] 04/6/2011 10:04

You went quiet when the price collapsed. Admittedly not as quiet as Azalea.

[imperial3] 04/6/2011 09:24

More drivel as usual.

[bionicdog] 03/6/2011 20:43

Far too much optimism and not enough about booze for my liking. I appreciate that you did you best to throw some water onto fire of positivity.