Lonrho Share Discussion Threads

[diamond1] 27/12/2012 08:27

Full page write up on Fastjet in this weeks Moneyweek. Generally positive, saying it could pay "spectacular" dividends IF it works out.

[zcaprd7] 20/12/2012 21:11

Or they dribble fastjet shares into the market?

[hvs] 20/12/2012 18:42

We is FLYING

[kibu] 20/12/2012 17:52

"Profits" are what you make them and, as we know, a lot of "profit" has been booked in advance on those maturing peach trees. There's already been one 'adjustment' to those profits because of poor weather. Despite the BoD's best creative efforts, none of what they've done has created any surplus cash. Apart from a "P/E of less than 4" being blatantly wrong it always comes back to that ugly accumulated deficit on the P&L. Till that's wiped out and some real cash generated this once great company will continue to limp along on the hope and cash from placings. That's the way it has now been for seven years this month.

[africahand2] 20/12/2012 08:50

The 'profit' at the half year was as a result of the 'disposal' of Fly540 to Fastjet.
Excluding this 'profit' of £33.9M, losses would have been £10.3M at the interim stage.

[m1das_touch] 20/12/2012 08:29

It's cheaper right now in my view! If my memory is right they still own something like 60% of Fastjet. In addition it's a lower-risk way to benefit from Fastjet's growth in my view, as you're buying into a profitable, highly diversified business in the fastest growing region in the world.

I have no holding in Fastjet, but have significant holdings in Lonhro, bought at around current levels. I just can't believe how cheap this share is, even taking into account currency risk, regional risk, operational risk etc. The diluted EPS at the interim stage was 1.64p and we're currently in their historically strongest quarter.

Even if they don't manage to match first-half EPS in the second half and achieve, say 2.5p per share for the full year...that still puts Lonhro on a current year P/E of less than 4!

[ndege kidogo] 20/12/2012 08:28

Depends how quickly you want to establish a tax loss

[zcaprd7] 19/12/2012 23:31

Still no answer to my simple question. At what point is it cheaper to buy lonrho instead of fastjet?

[kibu] 17/12/2012 23:40

Please, Slasher, will you enlighten the "dividendees" about elastic and its "propertees?" You know UK company law as well as I do. You know PR better and, of course, have better resources. The poster of 1609 knows this too. Yet you use your resources - all of which are paid from shareholder funds - to paint a picture which is, in a single word, untruthful. You have journalists, shareholders, tipsy analysts and potential investors convinced. Maybe even you believe the hype?

Be straight with people. Lonrho is not profitable. It has not been profitable since you and the other directors squeezed your flabby posteriors into the woefully inadequate SW1A upholstery some seven years ago. The losses racked up by your gang of tozers is so substantial that it will take extraordinary profits to wipe out the current accumulated deficit. Only when that has been achieved can any dividend be considered. Instead, shareholders suffer extraordinary losses such as the SAILS write-off. So many of the last accounts have listed "extraordinary" items that the word has no meaning when analysing Lonrho's accounts. "Extraordinary" means "normal" and is typically negative.

I've read a recent paid-for report from one of your analysts that suggests a dividend may be paid in 2014. It's the closest we might get to honesty. I disagree with the figures (there is too much hope) and see nothing before 2015. But you have encouraged (or not discouraged) both media and public to believe in a 2013 dividend. That is a complete WHITETOSH, and you know it.

I hope you keep up the good work as I look forward to a share price lift. Having seen the recent drift to '7p something' I am just wondering if others might have seen that the Emperor has no clothes?


kiburning

[ndege kidogo] 16/12/2012 16:50

If the Board are to honour Laughingas' grandiose promise there are just 15 days left in 2012 for the State Opening of Lonrho's Dividend Policy. Or will the Pope tweet it for them?
Other than God, who knows?

[tenapen] 08/12/2012 20:56

Hi zcaprd7, I would not get too excited about FJET and all of the talk from the company, press and advfn about rapid expansion. LONR tried for many years and lost a lot of money trying to get FLY540 off the ground ! and suddenly because Stelios is involved, African Red Tape goes away !. Maybe it as ! I hope so for my stake in LONR ;).

No advice intended,

Good Luck.

[zcaprd7] 08/12/2012 16:19

Well, I'm lazy is the answer - I thought you guys would know in a flash how much the stake is worth - I'm thinking of buying into fastjet and thought Lonrho might be a cheaper way in!

[tenapen] 08/12/2012 14:35

He is trading the share. When he is short he lays in heavy, but on the lows his tone changes possitive, but never an outright bull.

I do not think he works weekend to answer for him / herself.

[ceaserxzy] 08/12/2012 14:30

Not sure about kibu's agenda, is he shorting Lonr? From his posts he is definitely not investing so why does he investing so much time on a stock that he is not investing?

[tenapen] 08/12/2012 11:02

getting a bit shirty Kibu !.

lol

[kibu] 07/12/2012 22:16

zcaprd7, looking at your background, and WADR, this is already on the thread. What is your point?

[zcaprd7] 07/12/2012 13:54

Hmm, still not sure - how much is their fastjet stake worth in terms of pence of Lornho's share price - I suspect you could get this with the other African assets thrown in for free at some point?

[kibu] 04/12/2012 01:01

Amusing Monday (2) - Donald Strang

PLUS Markets has renamed itself Polemos. PLUS's story is long, scandalous and interesting yet irrelevant here. It sold its legacy a few months ago and became a short-term shell. It's re-emerged as an African investment outfit. Yo ho. Donald Strang is now in charge via "Kerman Shelf 24 Limited." Serial Lonrho-associated nominee Daniel O'Connell fronted.

Strang was deeply in cahoots with everything Arlington as he was a Lonrho director until two years ago. Last year he resigned from Lenigas Oil & Gas "to pursue other overseas interests" - speculated to be his Australian garden but "overseas" later defined to be London.

As a director of Rare Earth Minerals and Stellar Resources, Strang's achievements mirror those at Lonrho - huge share issues, short-term exponential share price rise, medium term volatility during protracted decline. No exceptions. Profits rarer than oxymoronic rare earth or as stellar as an April peat bog and every company a long-term financial disaster.

Last time I wrote about Donald Strang, the post was removed. I think the 'offensive' words were something about 'Lenigas, White and Strang hang around the same water cooler.'

Anyway, Strang's humour's improved. In Aesop's fable, Polemos marries Hybris, female personification of arrogance and impertinence. Sounds good for another African investment vehicle run by an Ozzie out of London.



kibu

[kibu] 04/12/2012 01:01

Amusing Monday (1) - Fastjet


What an amusing Monday on the BBs. Fastjet BBs have had an adrenaline fix to accompany the fertility boost. ADVFN's now running four threads. The traffic's like Twitter. Sadly the price is down today and still lower than the summer placing. Could it be something with those $20 flights turning out to be somewhat more expensive at chequebook time?

Or is it a question about Fastjet's expansion plans being a tad too bullish? Bearing in mind Fly540 Angola (notoriously high on bull, low on fact) is still EU-listed as "subject to a ban"[1] Fastjet has to do more than fly to Kilimanjaro, it's got daunting peaks to climb.

Not only has Tanzanian Railways taken the WD40 to their dusty trainset (Dar es Salaam to Mwanza reportedly chuffs off this Friday for the first time in years) but Air Tanzania is supposedly back in the hunt.

For a flight in a couple of weeks time I was quoted a price to Mwanza comparable to Fastjet's. It was above Fastjet's banner price but below their targeted price. Curiously, Air Tanzania had a higher 'taxes' price but it was full-service. An airline backed, as it is, by the Tanzanian government, will be something to watch.[2] Their website and their planes are, however, like Fastjet, miles behind Precision Air, the dominant carrier.



kibu


[1]
[2] Operations, including their website, are being hurriedly assembled.

[tenapen] 02/12/2012 14:25

Quote; "Nothing positive on Lonrho?"

You realy do talk it, kibu

Good luck

LOL

[kibu] 02/12/2012 00:15

TSK 1 has, regrettably, yet understandably, gone quiet of late. There's nothing positive about Lonrho at the moment. But if fastjet booms Lonrho's holding will benefit.

Nothing positive on Lonrho? Well, not true, but energy costs are putting the screw on logistics and there's been rough weather that didn't suit the peaches. BTW, how come African countries don't figure as peach producers but Lonrho suddenly becomes a major producer?

Two extra questions about Lonrho are a) when will operating cash flow turn positive (only placings have put logs on the fire since 2006); b) will the retained earnings deficit be eliminated in 2013 or 2014 allowing dividends to be paid in 2014 or 2015?

Lonrho's share price is 400% up on 4 years ago yet little has changed. From the present high valuation, there's an awfully long way to fall. No wonder it's down 30% in the last 8 months. Another 50% fall would still leave some investors with 150% profit. There's the risk.


kibu

[zcaprd7] 01/12/2012 10:22

Hmm, I will hold off either for now - thanks for all the replies!

[kibu] 30/11/2012 16:07

fastjet's price has bounced off its low and is fast returning to July's 4p placing price. This is good news for Lonrho and its shareholders who have seen Lonrho tumble 30% since April.

Press coverage of the build up and yesterday's successful inaugural flights in Tanzania has been phenomenal, especially considering the small size of the fledgling airline. Mixed in with facts are the inevitable misreporting and hype. The Daily Telegraph and many others report that 'Stelios' is "backing" the airline. Marketing Magazine, for one, reports that he is a director of fastjet.

Stelios has not backed fastjet with a cash stake nor is he a director. His easygroup was given 5% of the shares, he has a right to later become a director, easygroup collects royalties for 10 years and Stelios gets a monthly £50,000 pay check.

With one London broker talking of 'profit in 2013' and a target '$1bn' turnover being recycled in the media, the hype could boost the share price further. Volumes are already up and, more importantly, bums are on seats. fastjet has talked of strong sales and a good forward order book. It will be some time before audited financials are available but while the thermals are so strong there could be an enjoyable ride ahead.

Were fastjet to double in price, it could add 2p to Lonrho. A sale or part-sale after the lock-in expires next summer would bring some much needed cash and a bookable profit. If there's no further damage to those peachy "biological assets" following the earlier writedown, the retained earnings deficit would reduce. A dividend in 2013, despite Lonrho's gusto, is, however, less likely than snow at Julius Nyerere.


kibu

[hamlette] 27/11/2012 20:24

Not a big fan of FJET - a speculative punt and another company from the David Lenigas stable. Those interested in FJET can follow his postings on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/DavidLenigas