||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
|neil78: Yes looking forward to the results Id not call any share price predictions especially here on the A.I.M but do feel Litebulb has some legs and feel US growth. Interest. Contracts maybe the what is needed to accelerate the share price as I think we are in stagnation mode hope that's not the wrong choice or words. But all in all I will remain a holder till some clarity direction is given if not then maybe time to move on. To others. After all I'm here to make some money and have patience but they aren't unlimited mind you I bought years back Amec for a pittance and it tullow oil the same and held through some nice gains but that didn't happen over night I'd say 5 years I've been with Litebulb half that so let's see|
|neil78: I'm still a holder and yes with result due let see if there holds. Surprise that will kick start the share price I do believe we re worth more thn this. I sold half so added to my sound oil which has risen. A few tick ups which helps along with the duds auh I'm here cause I enjoy the pain
Litebulb may well offer some cheer as we steam through 2015|
|rivaldo: Yump, my single post amply justified my opinion with no need for further explanation. Anyway....here goes again :o))
I said specifically that the valuation now is better and that IN THE PAST LBB's valuation looked expensive (particularly at a £30m m/cap or so, which assumed smooth, untroubled growth and which it now seems was over-optimistic).
I also made it clear that my reason for posting - my "m.o" - was to explain why the share price had fallen - the Finncap downgrade - and I also made it clear that I wasn't a holder.
I further made it clear that my reason for doubt here was that the company has now disappointed the City, and it may (or may not) take time for the markets to recover trust in LBB before attributing a proper rating to it.
What that rating should be is of course open to debate. If you believe LBB will achieve the new lower forecasts, then LBB seems cheap. If not, then it's expensive. The middle course is to wait and see if the company re-proves itself to the markets with decent numbers - which is exactly what I wrote the first time.
If LBB over time achieved a suitable track record, delivering on forecasts etc, then of course it would rate a higher prospective P/E. At present though, it's blotted its copybook.
Here's my prior post for reference:
"Per Finncap this morning, revenues for 2014 will now be £2.5m less than they'd forecast, due to lower than expected volumes and Agency division sales.
They've changed their forecast to a loss of £0.5m (from a £0.8m PBT). For 2015 they now go for £2.4m PBT, reduced from £3.2m, and 0.07p EPS.
I'm not a holder as I always thought LBB looked expensive. LBB will now have to recover the trust of the City, so although the valuation is looking better now - if only on a forward basis - it may drift further until the next set of figures to June'15 and we can assess whether those 2015 figures look reasonable."|
|rivaldo: Beth21 in post 533 asked "the share price seems to take an opposite direction.....what could this be".
I answered since, as a fellow long-time lurker here, I knew exactly why the share price was dropping as it was due to Finncap's downgrade and LBB's failing to meet forecasts. No-one else here seemed to be privy to this info, so I was being helpful - and I also offered my opinion on the share since I was here to clarify my stance, never having posted here before.
Yump, if you cannot contemplate a single mildly negative but rational and balanced post on a share you own without getting personal, then you have a problem. At the same time you ignored and failed to address the useful info I gave (for which for some reason there was also no thanks!). The same happened when I made a single opinion post on another share you own.
So we all have our faults. I don't care about being nice, but I don't like to see posters spoiling bulletin boards and stopping open discussion, which is what you appear to be doing. Let's stick to stock-specific discussion.|
|neil78: Of course excellent results but bear in mind small investors myself included have had a long 2014 with no share price improvement and a tad backward movement. I positive But when will all this reflect in the share price sub 1p isn't good enough I choose this company on faith of it being in growth and in profit and delivering share holder growth I'm still here but reflecting|
|yump: If its any help...
I bought these on a year view based on the forecasts of around £3.5mln pbt and 0.1p eps in the market.
However, those are I think pretty rough estimates, so there needs to be some 'wriggle room' for safety.
At the point where they appear to be on a growth path with profits, the p/e should rise to at least be significantly higher than 10. I'm just basing that on what happens to lots of companies moving into profit.
So the range for me came out as:
On target at 0.1p eps X p/e of 10, would be 1p share price, very conservative. x p/e of 15 gives 1.5p share price end 2015. If they did 0.1p and the economy is stable, it wouldn't be surprising to get a p/e of 20, which would give 2p share price.
If they miss and get eg. 0.075p eps, that is still good growth, so worst case a p/e of 10 x the 0.075p = .75p share price, or better a p/e of 15 x 0.75p which is around 1p.
So in summary my worst case was 0.75p and best case was 2p+.
Not exactly a no-brainer, but it illustrated the risk/reward well enough for me to buy in.
Finally, if they grow revenues from 24mln to 35mln as forecast, that is quite a growth rate, so the following year could provide fireworks if the profit drops out accordingly, but that's a long way out.|
|yump: If you look back over some other companies that have started to have rapidly increasing share prices (excluding the loss-making hype ones), they all start with a fairly pedestrian yearly increase in share price. (Although I don't see how 50% in a year or so here could be called pedestrian).
Anyway, at the time they are steadily increasing, a lot of investors want more.
The point is that out of all the times to buy, the slow growth time is the one that doesn't expose you to a huge risk, providing you can see growth for yourself. Once the share price is up and away, the p/e often increases to risky levels.
At which point, if you're not invested, you look back and wonder why you didn't spot it earlier, although quite often nobody actually knows why the share price has taken off properly... and most times nobody really will.
If there's no growth in revenue or profit, then the 'flying' will never happen except as a fluke hype. If there is growth in revenue, its not difficult to work out what rating the share would be on, assuming certain profit figures. Then at least you know whether a valuation is years ahead, even when profits flow, or potentially only a year ahead as soon as a modest profit appears.
Probably preaching to the converted, but there's nothing worse than looking back to a share that you 'should' have bought, but thought it looked to be boring at the time. Or worse, one that you sold because you were bored and nothing else.|
|neil78: The year is closing
Litebulbs year end closing also
Anyone interested to comment on revenue profits etc for year closing
And of course any thoughts towards a share price movement upwards that is.
And once more any thoughts on what it would take for the share price to move on to new inspiring levels
I've not seen much over the last 24 months left my eggs in this basket but they are at best at embrio stage quite a way from hatching
I again remain positive or is it hopefull|
|yump: fwiw I think the share price at the moment represents the building of a business by a bod who want to build a business, rather than cause a share price to fly.|
Litebulb Grp share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange