||ORD USD0.0001 (DI)
||EPS - Basic
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Real-Time news about Kryso Res (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|griffin4: Can't even find the share price of CNG today, let alone new thread, will just have to use this one for the time being.|
|charles clore: I think the share price has already started to track spot gold. Perhaps a little too harshly!|
|carlos panda: doldrums |ˈdɒldr01;mz|
plural noun (the doldrums)
1 a state or period of stagnation or depression, e.g.: the KYS share price has been in the doldrums for the last twelve months.
2 an equatorial region of the Atlantic Ocean with calms, sudden storms, and light unpredictable winds.
ORIGIN late 18th cent. (as doldrum 'dull, sluggish person'): perhaps from dull, on the pattern of tantrums (which is what I'll be having if this continues for another six months).|
|charles clore: So from the video it appears it's game still on in a very positive way. Price is recovering now and the CEO confirms increased market share (68%) in Chinese hands and expects share price to increase with the HK listing. Sadly UK holdings are down to 32%. Also good to hear the resource has been upgraded to M&I and is expected to continue growing. I feel UK investors are going to miss out on this as KYS approaches production in H1 2014.|
The brainstorming meeting, if it can be described thus, certainly looks encouraging, with a nice orange banner thrown in to show their aim. I think the fact that the UK holdings are probably small now is no bad thing either - the Chinese interests are hopefully a strong partnership with a common goal, and the more interest that they have in the project hopefully translates into commitment. The high profile of the project and the relative "luck" we have had with the share price not collapsing as the shares gradually change hands, certainly gives me some confidence in holding (at a time when a bit of confidence doesn't go amiss).
I was concerned at losing the London listing, but expect they just see the move as being away from an AIM listing with little benefit going forward compared to that offered by HK, and hopefully with a large number of potential investors to boot. Kryso or New Kryso may not explode onto the HK market but at least there is some potential for it to do so if Chinese funds need to have a weighting.
Perhaps a decent rise in the share price will provide a nice cushion for your trip to the HK AGM!|
|carlos panda: legg96
I think one can understand why some shareholders might choose to sell following the 08/05/13 announcement.
1. If their broker account precludes holding overseas stocks and they only have a small shareholding then it may not be worth the effort to open a supplementary or new account.
2. If their shareholding is in an ISA then a single listing HK stock is ineligible.
3. If they are by nature ill-disposed to overseas stocks (or foreign parts in general!).
I note that trading volume in KYS has been more than 150% higher in the period following the announcement compared to that before and also that the share price has fallen by some 20% (gold having fallen 15% in the same period). From this I think one may assume that a further 5% of the company's shares have made their way east.
Your point about the change being really a move from junior to main market is correct. Fortunately the KYS management have (wisely) decided (for reasons covered many times over the last few months) that a future in HK is preferable to one in the UK.
|carlos panda: legg96
Apologies for my all too hasty appearance - I had intended to arrive around 1pm in order to meet other shareholders but ended up spending 3 hours slogging the 60 miles up the M3 and then had a commitment at 4pm. So much for Sunday traffic!
I find AGM type Q&A sessions tricky for both those asking the questions and those answering them, mainly due to the disparate knowledge levels of the various attendees but also because management obviously have to be rather more guarded in their responses. That said, Craig certainly appeared to do his best to provide straightforward answers where possible. I had rather hoped although not expected that perhaps the chairman, Tao Luo, might have attended.
I also was somewhat surprised at the range of figures mentioned for a possible market cap / share price pursuant to the HK listing ($300m - $500m, i.e. x2 - x3 current). It's not that I see such a level as fundamentally unreasonable, rather that the recent (and continuing) departure of UK shareholders may lower the reference price for HK investors. Still, as Craig indicated, the company received very positive feedback during their HK presentations so perhaps a starting point of HK$ 6+ is achievable with my 2017 target of HKD 15 not too unrealistic.
All in all there was nothing much new that came out of the meeting but the chance to clarify existing issues is always useful. It's also helpful to have an opportunity to get 'bigger picture', albeit more soft focus, feedback (something that often seems to get lost in the detail of RNS announcements) e.g. CNMIM's political and financial connections, regional M&A possibilities, a 250k oz pa company.
1. HK Listing. This will happen sooner rather than later this year and should help KYS achieve a more realistic valuation.
2. Funding. KYS will have no problem raising the additional equity / loan funding at good prices / reasonable terms for the enhanced Pakrut mine plan or indeed for M&A.
3. Subscription Bonus Tax. This is expected to be agreed towards the lowest end of the possible range.
4. Resources. The ITR contains much of the 2012 drill results, although not using independent laboratory figures. The full resource update is still awaited but will show increases in measured and indicated (from inferred) as well as data from East Pakrut and Rufigar.
So, despite short term UK investors still heading for the exit, IMO the future still looks very positive.
|rvsy38: abacus23 / kinbasket
I agree with kinbasket that a DCF model is best suited for a near production miner ( see my post 11769 of 8 February 2012 when I arrived at a valuation of around 60p).
I also think that your assumptions regarding the production build up and expansion of production, operating costs and gold price are far too optimistic.
I have re run my DCF model using the information on the financing terms and the eventual take up of the 73 million warrants which would result in approx 360 million shares in issue.
I have assumed the following for my Base Case :
Design, construction, commissioning completed in 4Q of 2013
Production in 2013 - 5,000 oz
Production in 2014 - 40,000 oz
Production in 2015 - 60,000 oz
Production in 2016 - 82,000 oz
Production at 82,000 oz per annum to 2023.
Gold price of US$ 1250 /oz constant
Production cost US$ 450 / oz ( I have increased the costs in the presentation by approx 20% to reflect higher fuel prices and other costs).
Capex of US$ 110 million financed by loans and funds from exercising of warrants
Loan of approx US$ 96 million is repaid in 6 equal half yearly installments starting in May 2014.
Discount rate for DCF calculation: 10%
Project pays back in early 2016.
Share price based on cumulative DCF after 10 years : 56p
I have also run the model assuming that the capex is 20% higher and the production cost is 20% higher ( US$ 540 /oz). At a gold price of US$ 1250/oz, the share price would be reduced to 44p.
I ran the model assuming that the capex is 20% higher and the production cost is 20% higher ( US$ 540 /oz) but with a higher gold price of US$ 1500/oz.
Under these conditions the share price works out at around 72p.
I think that the expectations of many on this board are far too high and I am still looking for a share price of around 60p.
It is important not to base expectations on unrealistic programmes for building and bringing a new mine and processing plant into operation.
I agree with kinbasket's comments on the Chinese having got a very good deal and that their presence will have a dampening effect on the share price.
I would welcome comments from kinbasket ( and any others) on the assumptions and findings of my DCF analysis.|
|charles clore: This background local information is just as important as the company's RNS. Great stuff and I notice the KYS share price hasn't crashed recently - unlike some of the others!|
|atlantic1953: Thanks for the contributions to my posting about 'sensitive 'information.
The kys share price seems to being held in a straight jacket.|
Kryso Resources share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange