Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Kibo Mining LSE:KIBO London Ordinary Share IE00B97C0C31 ORD EUR0.015
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 5.125p 4.75p 5.50p 5.125p 4.875p 5.125p 1,036,654 16:11:16
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Mining 0.0 -3.6 1.0 5.1 18.65

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Date Time Title Posts
25/6/201723:25KIBOsh Mining - Another Placing looks IMMINENT !!!4,244
25/6/201723:21KIBO - Who is the blatant liar the mug pumper or the CEO ?344
25/6/201723:20The Tomb of the Unknown Mug Punter - 50p to 1p RIP333
25/6/201723:19Payback41
25/6/201723:18Fake News33

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25/6/2017
09:20
Kibo Mining Daily Update: Kibo Mining is listed in the Mining sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker KIBO. The last closing price for Kibo Mining was 5.13p.
Kibo Mining has a 4 week average price of 4.50p and a 12 week average price of 3.75p.
The 1 year high share price is 10.25p while the 1 year low share price is currently 3.75p.
There are currently 363,976,596 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 92,995 shares. The market capitalisation of Kibo Mining is £18,653,800.55.
16/6/2017
12:33
bionictwat: UKIS 2017 KIBO NotesPolicy Changes -Can you explain the difference between the Tanzanian Energy and Policy Procurement Review that is underway, as per the recent presentation and the MEM Policy Review that is completed as per 23/3/17 RNS?These are two completely diffrent reviews. It's hard to put a linear %, in terms of how much of the TEPPR is completed but it's believed the main components have been completed and these aren't really a dealing factor to the ultimate delivery of the project. There is a gazetting process to ensure any changes don't conflict with any other laws etc before being made official.In your assessment how long will the Tanzainan Energy And Policy Procurement Review take to complete?Unable to accurately say but see above that the main bulk of the work has been completed already. So we should be on the home straight.As discussed last year, can you tell me of which, if either, KIBO have had direct input too?Yes they have had input into both of these. Therefore, I read they must have reasonable knowledge of the processes and there shaping of the future.Overall how do you expect all policy changes to benefit the MCPP?Kibo will be benefit for a more robust, solid and sustainable set of rules within the overall framework of reliability within Tanzania. I.e it will ensure all payments etc will be made as agreed which is important for a project like the MCPP which is going to, run for over 25 years.ESIA -What does the ESIA Certification process involve?Literally just a final check and a signing off process. There could be the odd question that may come back to KIBO or a confirmation of certain elements but basically it is what it is, a signing up process.Given the timelines for ESIA certification acquired by other companies, the ESIA certification for KIBO should be imminent. Is there anything else that is holding this up i.e hanging on outstanding policy changes and should we expect this any day now, by that reasoning?Yes KIBO are awaiting this to drop anytime now with nothing else holding this up.SML -Given the timelines for SML approval acquired by other companies, the SML approval for KIBO should be imminent. Is there anything else that is holding this up i.e hanging on outstanding policy changes and should we expect this any day now, by that reasoning?Again, yes KIBO are awaiting this to drop anytime now with nothing else holding this up.PPA -Given the phrases used in the RNS of the 23/3/17 of 'ensuring that a final PPA can be concluded ASAP'. Can we verify that preliminary PPA tariffs were applied to the facilitate the production of the IBFS and Financial Model?The conversation quickly negated this section of questions. LC explained that we have no figures to plug in anywhere and this method of thought is the direct opposite to what is actually happening in reality in this process. We are working this completely the other way around. We are saying what the tariff figures should be, driven from the independently produced figures via the feasibility studies completed. We have control and push negotiations to where we want them to be not the other way around. To me, this means we guarantee a profitable outcome for the project. If so, we're these preliminary PPA tarriffs agreed with Tanesco?N/AAgain, and if so, are the accuracy of these tariffs still withstanding given the policy reviews?N/AFC -Can we assume once we have an ESIA, SML and PPA we can advance straight to FC or are there any other workstreams that need completing that will hold up going to FC? Yes, although some parallel work means part of FC can already be in progress. It is possible to call a scenario of being in a Preliminary FC.Are SEPCO bound to pay you the $3.6m on entering FC or at the completion of FC?This will be on competition of FC but this is not seen to cause any problems in anyway.Will there be a news blackout during FC due to its sensitive nature?Once we reach FC, or more accurately on signing the PPA, that is when the real figures and detail can be released. LC seemed to allude on more than one occasion to look at the figures for the coal that you can workout to give a good pointer to the value that lies ahead. Therefore I don't see FC as requiring a suspension or news blackout.MCPP General -How our partners feel about the delays induced by the Government?They seem pretty understanding of the region and it's development. Obviously they have huge budgets and can outside these types of delays, so no issue here.Did Sandersons acquisition of part of the MCPP surprise you, especially vs their usual MO?LC agreed that obviously it isn't there normal line of business and that it probsbly surprised Sandersons themselves more than it did himself when they got so deeply involved. They have made a huge commitment that the believe they will benefit from.Are you any closer to knowing whether the project will be separated or integrated?No comment.What is your gut feel on which route you prefer to go down?No comment.Do you feel a 30% retention as previously alluded to is realistic or had that changed +/-?Yes this is entirely still possible and and therefore valid figure to base any calculations on.When Sandersons took their 2.5% valuing the MCPP at a discounted $100m, what was the agreed discount valued at?Although he couldn't recall the discounted figure he interesting said this value was based only on the figures from the mine. This took me back a touch as it was the complete opposite to what I expected. In fact, it may well, give rise to the fact my recent 25p a share figure for u the mine for each 300MW is too low. It puts it back to being more 35p and discounted at that !!! He must be expecting a much better price than $32.7mt for the coal being sold into the plant, imo.Can you confirm this 2.5% of the MCPP includes the mine. N/AHow does the MEN's statement that 30% of Tanzanian Mining Companies Share holding must be floated on the DSE affect all of our projects especially the MCPP?This would only affect projects that require an SML. Therfore only affect the MCPP. That said, LC was of the opinion that this would in all likelyhood NOT apply to us due to the National Strategic Importance of the project. Make of that, what you will.Can we still expect the MCPP to be spun out ala Katoro?It will either be spun out or in all likelyhood hood, Hanetti will be spun out leaving the MCPP on its own with KIBO.If so at what point would you need to initiate this?N/A. As an aside Noel seemed very excited about Hanetti. I had the feeling more work had been going on there than they have let on possibly.Sandersons -Can you give the exact repayment date of the current 2.9m loan facility?There is no set date and this is a very fluid arrangement. The distinct impressions I got was that there is alot more commitment between all these parties towards eachother than we give them credit for. Sandersons are not there to screw KIBO over for missed dates etc. From what LC said it seems very fluid and flexible. He seemed relaxed to the point of dismissing this as any issue whatsoever. How much currently of the facility has been drawn?I found it hard to believe they didn't know the answer to this but felt it was more a point of not wanting to give any shareholders privileged information, therefore, as it stands we received no figure on this.Given the slippage in timelines for FC what contingencies have you in place for settlement of monies drawn under the current Sandersons agreement and how can we best expect you to negotiate a solution to this?See above. Totally unworried, I suspect an alternative cash injection possibly from selling part of this his he MCPP down, potentially GE appeared the favourites imo.Do you conceed that where Sandersons has the right to convert up to £1.5m of amount drawn down on the Facility into Kibo Shares at the 30 day VWAP prior to the repayment date of the total Facility amount that there is an interest in the KIBO share price being low going through this period for them?LC seemed to be of the opinion this wasn't in Sandersons interest to have a low share price. I asked him if maybe it was in their favour for a short time i.e the 30 day VWAP period at least to get the max shares for the upto 1.5m but LC seemed to say the it was at our discretion whether upto max 1.5m of the facility was repayable as shares. I assume that as the deal and a repayment date seem flexible this maybe isn't a problem as previously explained but also I feel he has access to an alternate funding to eliminate this problem. I.e selling down a small stake in the MCPP possibly.How you you feel about this, as lot of investors feel uncomfortable with it and suspect some share price manipulation?They have and our investigating but so far have not found how or who is//could be causing any manipulation.Beaufort -Given the significant progress made with the MCPP, how do you feel when your house broker cannot upgrade their stock recommendation, despite your best efforts? Also how do you feel this looks to new or potential investors from the outside?Very small potatoes in the grand scheme of things.Government of TanzaniaWhat actually tangible evidence can you show investors as to the government being completely behind this project at this point?Look there isn't a letter or anything assigning KIBO any such special privileges. It's something that needs to happen and KIBO have got themselves to the front of the queue in terms of project development They have great relationships in terms of being completely transparent and honest with the Government and this extends both ways.Can we have some insight as to how KIBO benefits from a supposedly 'special' relationship with the Government?See aboveHave you any agreement with the government in any form that the MCPP will provide Stage 2 and 400MW for export via the ZTK?Yes this seems obviously where this second stage is going to go, however LC also and passionately pointed out this was not the only option. Only 300MW or Stage 1 can be evacuated into the grid as it stands now. However as an IPP'S he can sell Power to whomever he likes. It need not only be to Tanesco or into the ZTK. He can deal directly with the EAPP too for example or sell as to cement factories etc etc.Sepco III -:-) Can you confirm that KIBO initiated the revision to the original JDA agreement with SEPCO III for their best interests and not that Sepco the JDA was revised as they were not prepared to commit funds due to low IRRS of the Power side of the project.Emphatically and rightly pointed out by LC. Why would SEPCO enter into a deal for 1.8m plus 3.6m just for backcosts and nothing else when the original deal was $3m for 15%. There was no need for further discussion.NPV -Who verified or confirmed the RNS'D NPV figures?Tractebel, MINXCOM etc plus these were again independently assessed, produced and verified.Can you 100% confirm the NPV figures quoted of just shy of $500m per 300MW configuration are figures post debt interest, as I expect them to be.See above, do you really think these companies don't know how to calculate NPV that relates to the rest of the business world? Institutional Investors -You been on record as saying approx 50% of calls into you were from Investors wanting to get in on the MCPP. How come - barring Sandersons, we have no institutional investors notifiable in Kibo?LC was of the opinion that we are under the radar of serious II's. At a 30m cap they will become inerested and can invest. He has had alot of interest, so imo, on the back of significant news we won't possibly retrace next time we go past 10p, we might have bigger buyers buying into the price at the level for the reasons stated.Do you see this as an issue and are you attempting to address it?See above.Diversified Mining - What is the minimum mining permission needed for Kibo to start selling coal locally or will we be waiting for an all encompassing SML?It will be covered under the SML, already applied for.If less than an SML what is the minimum period to get it and can it be converted to an SML later?It will be covered under the SML already applied for.We know the Capex of the mine with regards the MCPP is $17m, what is the CAPEX for getting the mine into early production and how do you intend to raise this amount?The mine is the mine, it will take $17mWhat ia the current sell price per tonne of Tanzanian coal in local market?Amazingly $60/ $70 per mtWhat is the profit margin per tonne?No commentWhat is the nitial and potential sales potential for local domestic market?A lot of interest has been shown so far and still feeling out its full potential.Is there much competition in local market?Not much only one company he mentioned, he didn't seemed to know quite who Edenville would have as customers. Most other mines will have high transportation costs where as at Mbeya they are right on the train track therefore will be able to keep their costs down and provide coal still a lower price than other companies. LC was adamant no one would beat them for price.Is exporting of this coal feasible and being explored?Not impossible but for internal use only for now.CSR Program -What else will this entail and under what conditions were you required to run this?This was triggered via the ESIA but nothing else significant is planned for now.
12/6/2017
16:06
bionictwat: Show the main post> deanroberthunt - 30 Mar 2017 - 08:30 - 42110 of 42383 - 1More nothing news.deanroberthunt - 30 Mar 2017 - 08:32 - 42111 of 42383 - 1the market can see it's just all bluff and fluff....and paddingall image no substance...where's the FC? that's all that mattersdeanroberthunt - 30 Mar 2017 - 08:36 - 42112 of 42383 - 0it's smoke and mirrors with cloak and daggersEdgein - 30 Mar 2017 - 09:50 - 42113 of 42383 - 1These chaps are listing their gold assets in about 2 weeks it seems, they'll hold 57% of the new company with DFS in progress and high grade assets targeting 50,000 Oz pa with around 700k Oz Au JORC. Could see this new gold company being worth much more than the current £15m cap here. 120Mt of coal for free! Very very over sold.Regards,Ed.duxy786 - 30 Mar 2017 - 10:02 - 42114 of 42383 - 0Thanks for the free shares.deanroberthunt - 30 Mar 2017 - 13:05 - 42115 of 42383 - 0NCCL down 45%....this is what happens when you're dealing with Africadeanroberthunt - 31 Mar 2017 - 05:34 - 42116 of 42383 - 0Ended down 52%, and that's supposed to be more advanced than KIBO....s0n1cb00mb0y - 02 Apr 2017 - 23:31 - 42117 of 42383 - 7UKIS 2017 KIBO NotesPolicy Changes -Can you explain the difference between the Tanzanian Energy and Policy Procurement Review that is underway, as per the recent presentation and the MEM Policy Review that is completed as per 23/3/17 RNS?These are two completely diffrent reviews. It's hard to put a linear %, in terms of how much of the TEPPR is completed but it's believed the main components have been completed and these aren't really a dealing factor to the ultimate delivery of the project. There is a gazetting process to ensure any changes don't conflict with any other laws etc before being made official.In your assessment how long will the Tanzainan Energy And Policy Procurement Review take to complete?Unable to accurately say but see above that the main bulk of the work has been completed already. So we should be on the home straight.As discussed last year, can you tell me of which, if either, KIBO have had direct input too?Yes they have had input into both of these. Therefore, I read they must have reasonable knowledge of the processes and there shaping of the future.Overall how do you expect all policy changes to benefit the MCPP?Kibo will be benefit for a more robust, solid and sustainable set of rules within the overall framework of reliability within Tanzania. I.e it will ensure all payments etc will be made as agreed which is important for a project like the MCPP which is going to, run for over 25 years.ESIA -What does the ESIA Certification process involve?Literally just a final check and a signing off process. There could be the odd question that may come back to KIBO or a confirmation of certain elements but basically it is what it is, a signing up process.Given the timelines for ESIA certification acquired by other companies, the ESIA certification for KIBO should be imminent. Is there anything else that is holding this up i.e hanging on outstanding policy changes and should we expect this any day now, by that reasoning?Yes KIBO are awaiting this to drop anytime now with nothing else holding this up.SML -Given the timelines for SML approval acquired by other companies, the SML approval for KIBO should be imminent. Is there anything else that is holding this up i.e hanging on outstanding policy changes and should we expect this any day now, by that reasoning?Again, yes KIBO are awaiting this to drop anytime now with nothing else holding this up.PPA -Given the phrases used in the RNS of the 23/3/17 of 'ensuring that a final PPA can be concluded ASAP'. Can we verify that preliminary PPA tariffs were applied to the facilitate the production of the IBFS and Financial Model?The conversation quickly negated this section of questions. LC explained that we have no figures to plug in anywhere and this method of thought is the direct opposite to what is actually happening in reality in this process. We are working this completely the other way around. We are saying what the tariff figures should be, driven from the independently produced figures via the feasibility studies completed. We have control and push negotiations to where we want them to be not the other way around. To me, this means we guarantee a profitable outcome for the project. If so, we're these preliminary PPA tarriffs agreed with Tanesco?N/AAgain, and if so, are the accuracy of these tariffs still withstanding given the policy reviews?N/AFC -Can we assume once we have an ESIA, SML and PPA we can advance straight to FC or are there any other workstreams that need completing that will hold up going to FC? Yes, although some parallel work means part of FC can already be in progress. It is possible to call a scenario of being in a Preliminary FC.Are SEPCO bound to pay you the $3.6m on entering FC or at the completion of FC?This will be on competition of FC but this is not seen to cause any problems in anyway.Will there be a news blackout during FC due to its sensitive nature?Once we reach FC, or more accurately on signing the PPA, that is when the real figures and detail can be released. LC seemed to allude on more than one occasion to look at the figures for the coal that you can workout to give a good pointer to the value that lies ahead. Therefore I don't see FC as requiring a suspension or news blackout.MCPP General -How our partners feel about the delays induced by the Government?They seem pretty understanding of the region and it's development. Obviously they have huge budgets and can outside these types of delays, so no issue here.Did Sandersons acquisition of part of the MCPP surprise you, especially vs their usual MO?LC agreed that obviously it isn't there normal line of business and that it probsbly surprised Sandersons themselves more than it did himself when they got so deeply involved. They have made a huge commitment that the believe they will benefit from.Are you any closer to knowing whether the project will be separated or integrated?No comment.What is your gut feel on which route you prefer to go down?No comment.Do you feel a 30% retention as previously alluded to is realistic or had that changed +/-?Yes this is entirely still possible and and therefore valid figure to base any calculations on.When Sandersons took their 2.5% valuing the MCPP at a discounted $100m, what was the agreed discount valued at?Although he couldn't recall the discounted figure he interesting said this value was based only on the figures from the mine. This took me back a touch as it was the complete opposite to what I expected. In fact, it may well, give rise to the fact my recent 25p a share figure for u the mine for each 300MW is too low. It puts it back to being more 35p and discounted at that !!! He must be expecting a much better price than $32.7mt for the coal being sold into the plant, imo.Can you confirm this 2.5% of the MCPP includes the mine. N/AHow does the MEN's statement that 30% of Tanzanian Mining Companies Share holding must be floated on the DSE affect all of our projects especially the MCPP?This would only affect projects that require an SML. Therfore only affect the MCPP. That said, LC was of the opinion that this would in all likelyhood NOT apply to us due to the National Strategic Importance of the project. Make of that, what you will.Can we still expect the MCPP to be spun out ala Katoro?It will either be spun out or in all likelyhood hood, Hanetti will be spun out leaving the MCPP on its own with KIBO.If so at what point would you need to initiate this?N/A. As an aside Noel seemed very excited about Hanetti. I had the feeling more work had been going on there than they have let on possibly.Sandersons -Can you give the exact repayment date of the current 2.9m loan facility?There is no set date and this is a very fluid arrangement. The distinct impressions I got was that there is alot more commitment between all these parties towards eachother than we give them credit for. Sandersons are not there to screw KIBO over for missed dates etc. From what LC said it seems very fluid and flexible. He seemed relaxed to the point of dismissing this as any issue whatsoever. How much currently of the facility has been drawn?I found it hard to believe they didn't know the answer to this but felt it was more a point of not wanting to give any shareholders privileged information, therefore, as it stands we received no figure on this.Given the slippage in timelines for FC what contingencies have you in place for settlement of monies drawn under the current Sandersons agreement and how can we best expect you to negotiate a solution to this?See above. Totally unworried, I suspect an alternative cash injection possibly from selling part of this his he MCPP down, potentially GE appeared the favourites imo.Do you conceed that where Sandersons has the right to convert up to £1.5m of amount drawn down on the Facility into Kibo Shares at the 30 day VWAP prior to the repayment date of the total Facility amount that there is an interest in the KIBO share price being low going through this period for them?LC seemed to be of the opinion this wasn't in Sandersons interest to have a low share price. I asked him if maybe it was in their favour for a short time i.e the 30 day VWAP period at least to get the max shares for the upto 1.5m but LC seemed to say the it was at our discretion whether upto max 1.5m of the facility was repayable as shares. I assume that as the deal and a repayment date seem flexible this maybe isn't a problem as previously explained but also I feel he has access to an alternate funding to eliminate this problem. I.e selling down a small stake in the MCPP possibly.How you you feel about this, as lot of investors feel uncomfortable with it and suspect some share price manipulation?They have and our investigating but so far have not found how or who is//could be causing any manipulation.Beaufort -Given the significant progress made with the MCPP, how do you feel when your house broker cannot upgrade their stock recommendation, despite your best efforts? Also how do you feel this looks to new or potential investors from the outside?Very small potatoes in the grand scheme of things.Government of TanzaniaWhat actually tangible evidence can you show investors as to the government being completely behind this project at this point?Look there isn't a letter or anything assigning KIBO any such special privileges. It's something that needs to happen and KIBO have got themselves to the front of the queue in terms of project development They have great relationships in terms of being completely transparent and honest with the Government and this extends both ways.Can we have some insight as to how KIBO benefits from a supposedly 'special' relationship with the Government?See aboveHave you any agreement with the government in any form that the MCPP will provide Stage 2 and 400MW for export via the ZTK?Yes this seems obviously where this second stage is going to go, however LC also and passionately pointed out this was not the only option. Only 300MW or Stage 1 can be evacuated into the grid as it stands now. However as an IPP'S he can sell Power to whomever he likes. It need not only be to Tanesco or into the ZTK. He can deal directly with the EAPP too for example or sell as to cement factories etc etc.Sepco III -:-) Can you confirm that KIBO initiated the revision to the original JDA agreement with SEPCO III for their best interests and not that Sepco the JDA was revised as they were not prepared to commit funds due to low IRRS of the Power side of the project.Emphatically and rightly pointed out by LC. Why would SEPCO enter into a deal for 1.8m plus 3.6m just for backcosts and nothing else when the original deal was $3m for 15%. There was no need for further discussion.NPV -Who verified or confirmed the RNS'D NPV figures?Tractebel, MINXCOM etc plus these were again independently assessed, produced and verified.Can you 100% confirm the NPV figures quoted of just shy of $500m per 300MW configuration are figures post debt interest, as I expect them to be.See above, do you really think these companies don't know how to calculate NPV that relates to the rest of the business world? Institutional Investors -You been on record as saying approx 50% of calls into you were from Investors wanting to get in on the MCPP. How come - barring Sandersons, we have no institutional investors notifiable in Kibo?LC was of the opinion that we are under the radar of serious II's. At a 30m cap they will become inerested and can invest. He has had alot of interest, so imo, on the back of significant news we won't possibly retrace next time we go past 10p, we might have bigger buyers buying into the price at the level for the reasons stated.Do you see this as an issue and are you attempting to address it?See above.Diversified Mining - What is the minimum mining permission needed for Kibo to start selling coal locally or will we be waiting for an all encompassing SML?It will be covered under the SML, already applied for.If less than an SML what is the minimum period to get it and can it be converted to an SML later?It will be covered under the SML already applied for.We know the Capex of the mine with regards the MCPP is $17m, what is the CAPEX for getting the mine into early production and how do you intend to raise this amount?The mine is the mine, it will take $17mWhat ia the current sell price per tonne of Tanzanian coal in local market?Amazingly $60/ $70 per mtWhat is the profit margin per tonne?No commentWhat is the nitial and potential sales potential for local domestic market?A lot of interest has been shown so far and still feeling out its full potential.Is there much competition in local market?Not much only one company he mentioned, he didn't seemed to know quite who Edenville would have as customers. Most other mines will have high transportation costs where as at Mbeya they are right on the train track therefore will be able to keep their costs down and provide coal still a lower price than other companies. LC was adamant no one would beat them for price.Is exporting of this coal feasible and being explored?Not impossible but for internal use only for now.CSR Program -What else will this entail and under what conditions were you required to run this?This was triggered via the ESIA but nothing else significant is planned for now.RNS -General feedback is that RNS' need more proof reading, could include more numbers for the market to correctly value us on, along with maybe a little shine when we do things well, although I do think we attempt to hide not so good news well.It was noted but felt most issues were not related to the real material news.Q & A -Given the amount of mails sent into you that must take up valuable time, can we schedule a monthly Q & A through Vox Markets, as this seemed to be a great way of investors being able to interact with you on current issues and may not only cut down on your email inbox but act as great PR.Dedicated email address to be set up with a monthly Q and A sessions as previously conducted via Vox.SP Value -As much as we can see progressions on all project fronts and especially the MCPP, do you conceed that there is only a material increase in share price value when the share is consistently worth more this year than it was last year?Although I didn't ask this the general conversation regarding the share price led to the opinion there will be several significant catalysts for share price improvement coming over the next 2/3 months.To that end, what do you think will be the trigger for realising solid share price value with regard the MCPP, bar an offer being made for the project.See above.I have a value of approx $150-175m for selling a 300MW config with the coal, if retained being worth 25p at the 32.7mt price. Do you feel this is accurate?Approached the his in a slightly more round about way. They certainly didn't argue and I felt this wasn't far off of what they were thinking either.If sold, how do you I tend to make sure we don't end up selling a 1000MW plant for the price of a discounted 300MW plant.This was probably the most significant part of the his home day for me. Each 300MW will be sold as as separate company. Different level of ownership could be assigned over each stage. Therefore KIBO can benefit and realise from the full 1000MW. This IMO, significantly raises the value of the total investment we could realise given a longer term view. Assuming this does reach FC then alot more is at stake than a 300MW value. This alone as the most revealing part of the day. There is an absolutely massive value waiting to be unlocked. I also asked if now relationships between all parties had been established if a rinse and repeat of the whole project could be on the cards? LC just smiled and said, "Yes, of course it could".How do you best expect to materially realise value back to all share holders, would a special dividend vs income be your preferred method of distribution?A special dividend would always be a way to go, when realising share holder value.tcrober1 - 03 Apr 2017 - 08:39 - 42118 of 42383 - 0SonicVery many thanks , very much appreciated.Tadtech - 03 Apr 2017 - 08:45 - 42119 of 42383 - 5Spent over an hour with Kibo management at UKIS, very impressed and delighted with the replies to my very challenging questions.Could we see another significant value event before Financial Close, I think we will, it may take a few by surprise!Directors feel the share price should be ranging 10p-20p right now.If entities are shorting, even ones who think they may be in the know, watch out!DYOR etc>
12/6/2017
14:59
bionictwat: UKIS 2017 KIBO NotesPolicy Changes -Can you explain the difference between the Tanzanian Energy and Policy Procurement Review that is underway, as per the recent presentation and the MEM Policy Review that is completed as per 23/3/17 RNS?These are two completely diffrent reviews. It's hard to put a linear %, in terms of how much of the TEPPR is completed but it's believed the main components have been completed and these aren't really a dealing factor to the ultimate delivery of the project. There is a gazetting process to ensure any changes don't conflict with any other laws etc before being made official.In your assessment how long will the Tanzainan Energy And Policy Procurement Review take to complete?Unable to accurately say but see above that the main bulk of the work has been completed already. So we should be on the home straight.As discussed last year, can you tell me of which, if either, KIBO have had direct input too?Yes they have had input into both of these. Therefore, I read they must have reasonable knowledge of the processes and there shaping of the future.Overall how do you expect all policy changes to benefit the MCPP?Kibo will be benefit for a more robust, solid and sustainable set of rules within the overall framework of reliability within Tanzania. I.e it will ensure all payments etc will be made as agreed which is important for a project like the MCPP which is going to, run for over 25 years.ESIA -What does the ESIA Certification process involve?Literally just a final check and a signing off process. There could be the odd question that may come back to KIBO or a confirmation of certain elements but basically it is what it is, a signing up process.Given the timelines for ESIA certification acquired by other companies, the ESIA certification for KIBO should be imminent. Is there anything else that is holding this up i.e hanging on outstanding policy changes and should we expect this any day now, by that reasoning?Yes KIBO are awaiting this to drop anytime now with nothing else holding this up.SML -Given the timelines for SML approval acquired by other companies, the SML approval for KIBO should be imminent. Is there anything else that is holding this up i.e hanging on outstanding policy changes and should we expect this any day now, by that reasoning?Again, yes KIBO are awaiting this to drop anytime now with nothing else holding this up.PPA -Given the phrases used in the RNS of the 23/3/17 of 'ensuring that a final PPA can be concluded ASAP'. Can we verify that preliminary PPA tariffs were applied to the facilitate the production of the IBFS and Financial Model?The conversation quickly negated this section of questions. LC explained that we have no figures to plug in anywhere and this method of thought is the direct opposite to what is actually happening in reality in this process. We are working this completely the other way around. We are saying what the tariff figures should be, driven from the independently produced figures via the feasibility studies completed. We have control and push negotiations to where we want them to be not the other way around. To me, this means we guarantee a profitable outcome for the project. If so, we're these preliminary PPA tarriffs agreed with Tanesco?N/AAgain, and if so, are the accuracy of these tariffs still withstanding given the policy reviews?N/AFC -Can we assume once we have an ESIA, SML and PPA we can advance straight to FC or are there any other workstreams that need completing that will hold up going to FC? Yes, although some parallel work means part of FC can already be in progress. It is possible to call a scenario of being in a Preliminary FC.Are SEPCO bound to pay you the $3.6m on entering FC or at the completion of FC?This will be on competition of FC but this is not seen to cause any problems in anyway.Will there be a news blackout during FC due to its sensitive nature?Once we reach FC, or more accurately on signing the PPA, that is when the real figures and detail can be released. LC seemed to allude on more than one occasion to look at the figures for the coal that you can workout to give a good pointer to the value that lies ahead. Therefore I don't see FC as requiring a suspension or news blackout.MCPP General -How our partners feel about the delays induced by the Government?They seem pretty understanding of the region and it's development. Obviously they have huge budgets and can outside these types of delays, so no issue here.Did Sandersons acquisition of part of the MCPP surprise you, especially vs their usual MO?LC agreed that obviously it isn't there normal line of business and that it probsbly surprised Sandersons themselves more than it did himself when they got so deeply involved. They have made a huge commitment that the believe they will benefit from.Are you any closer to knowing whether the project will be separated or integrated?No comment.What is your gut feel on which route you prefer to go down?No comment.Do you feel a 30% retention as previously alluded to is realistic or had that changed +/-?Yes this is entirely still possible and and therefore valid figure to base any calculations on.When Sandersons took their 2.5% valuing the MCPP at a discounted $100m, what was the agreed discount valued at?Although he couldn't recall the discounted figure he interesting said this value was based only on the figures from the mine. This took me back a touch as it was the complete opposite to what I expected. In fact, it may well, give rise to the fact my recent 25p a share figure for u the mine for each 300MW is too low. It puts it back to being more 35p and discounted at that !!! He must be expecting a much better price than $32.7mt for the coal being sold into the plant, imo.Can you confirm this 2.5% of the MCPP includes the mine. N/AHow does the MEN's statement that 30% of Tanzanian Mining Companies Share holding must be floated on the DSE affect all of our projects especially the MCPP?This would only affect projects that require an SML. Therfore only affect the MCPP. That said, LC was of the opinion that this would in all likelyhood NOT apply to us due to the National Strategic Importance of the project. Make of that, what you will.Can we still expect the MCPP to be spun out ala Katoro?It will either be spun out or in all likelyhood hood, Hanetti will be spun out leaving the MCPP on its own with KIBO.If so at what point would you need to initiate this?N/A. As an aside Noel seemed very excited about Hanetti. I had the feeling more work had been going on there than they have let on possibly.Sandersons -Can you give the exact repayment date of the current 2.9m loan facility?There is no set date and this is a very fluid arrangement. The distinct impressions I got was that there is alot more commitment between all these parties towards eachother than we give them credit for. Sandersons are not there to screw KIBO over for missed dates etc. From what LC said it seems very fluid and flexible. He seemed relaxed to the point of dismissing this as any issue whatsoever. How much currently of the facility has been drawn?I found it hard to believe they didn't know the answer to this but felt it was more a point of not wanting to give any shareholders privileged information, therefore, as it stands we received no figure on this.Given the slippage in timelines for FC what contingencies have you in place for settlement of monies drawn under the current Sandersons agreement and how can we best expect you to negotiate a solution to this?See above. Totally unworried, I suspect an alternative cash injection possibly from selling part of this his he MCPP down, potentially GE appeared the favourites imo.Do you conceed that where Sandersons has the right to convert up to £1.5m of amount drawn down on the Facility into Kibo Shares at the 30 day VWAP prior to the repayment date of the total Facility amount that there is an interest in the KIBO share price being low going through this period for them?LC seemed to be of the opinion this wasn't in Sandersons interest to have a low share price. I asked him if maybe it was in their favour for a short time i.e the 30 day VWAP period at least to get the max shares for the upto 1.5m but LC seemed to say the it was at our discretion whether upto max 1.5m of the facility was repayable as shares. I assume that as the deal and a repayment date seem flexible this maybe isn't a problem as previously explained but also I feel he has access to an alternate funding to eliminate this problem. I.e selling down a small stake in the MCPP possibly.How you you feel about this, as lot of investors feel uncomfortable with it and suspect some share price manipulation?They have and our investigating but so far have not found how or who is//could be causing any manipulation.Beaufort -Given the significant progress made with the MCPP, how do you feel when your house broker cannot upgrade their stock recommendation, despite your best efforts? Also how do you feel this looks to new or potential investors from the outside?Very small potatoes in the grand scheme of things.Government of TanzaniaWhat actually tangible evidence can you show investors as to the government being completely behind this project at this point?Look there isn't a letter or anything assigning KIBO any such special privileges. It's something that needs to happen and KIBO have got themselves to the front of the queue in terms of project development They have great relationships in terms of being completely transparent and honest with the Government and this extends both ways.Can we have some insight as to how KIBO benefits from a supposedly 'special' relationship with the Government?See aboveHave you any agreement with the government in any form that the MCPP will provide Stage 2 and 400MW for export via the ZTK?Yes this seems obviously where this second stage is going to go, however LC also and passionately pointed out this was not the only option. Only 300MW or Stage 1 can be evacuated into the grid as it stands now. However as an IPP'S he can sell Power to whomever he likes. It need not only be to Tanesco or into the ZTK. He can deal directly with the EAPP too for example or sell as to cement factories etc etc.Sepco III -:-) Can you confirm that KIBO initiated the revision to the original JDA agreement with SEPCO III for their best interests and not that Sepco the JDA was revised as they were not prepared to commit funds due to low IRRS of the Power side of the project.Emphatically and rightly pointed out by LC. Why would SEPCO enter into a deal for 1.8m plus 3.6m just for backcosts and nothing else when the original deal was $3m for 15%. There was no need for further discussion.NPV -Who verified or confirmed the RNS'D NPV figures?Tractebel, MINXCOM etc plus these were again independently assessed, produced and verified.Can you 100% confirm the NPV figures quoted of just shy of $500m per 300MW configuration are figures post debt interest, as I expect them to be.See above, do you really think these companies don't know how to calculate NPV that relates to the rest of the business world? Institutional Investors -You been on record as saying approx 50% of calls into you were from Investors wanting to get in on the MCPP. How come - barring Sandersons, we have no institutional investors notifiable in Kibo?LC was of the opinion that we are under the radar of serious II's. At a 30m cap they will become inerested and can invest. He has had alot of interest, so imo, on the back of significant news we won't possibly retrace next time we go past 10p, we might have bigger buyers buying into the price at the level for the reasons stated.Do you see this as an issue and are you attempting to address it?See above.Diversified Mining - What is the minimum mining permission needed for Kibo to start selling coal locally or will we be waiting for an all encompassing SML?It will be covered under the SML, already applied for.If less than an SML what is the minimum period to get it and can it be converted to an SML later?It will be covered under the SML already applied for.We know the Capex of the mine with regards the MCPP is $17m, what is the CAPEX for getting the mine into early production and how do you intend to raise this amount?The mine is the mine, it will take $17mWhat ia the current sell price per tonne of Tanzanian coal in local market?Amazingly $60/ $70 per mtWhat is the profit margin per tonne?No commentWhat is the nitial and potential sales potential for local domestic market?A lot of interest has been shown so far and still feeling out its full potential.Is there much competition in local market?Not much only one company he mentioned, he didn't seemed to know quite who Edenville would have as customers. Most other mines will have high transportation costs where as at Mbeya they are right on the train track therefore will be able to keep their costs down and provide coal still a lower price than other companies. LC was adamant no one would beat them for price.Is exporting of this coal feasible and being explored?Not impossible but for internal use only for now.CSR Program -What else will this entail and under what conditions were you required to run this?This was triggered via the ESIA but nothing else significant is planned for now.RNS -General feedback is that RNS' need more proof reading, could include more numbers for the market to correctly value us on, along with maybe a little shine when we do things well, although I do think we attempt to hide not so good news well.It was noted but felt most issues were not related to the real material news.Q & A -Given the amount of mails sent into you that must take up valuable time, can we schedule a monthly Q & A through Vox Markets, as this seemed to be a great way of investors being able to interact with you on current issues and may not only cut down on your email inbox but act as great PR.Dedicated email address to be set up with a monthly Q and A sessions as previously conducted via Vox.SP Value -As much as we can see progressions on all project fronts and especially the MCPP, do you conceed that there is only a material increase in share price value when the share is consistently worth more this year than it was last year?Although I didn't ask this the general conversation regarding the share price led to the opinion there will be several significant catalysts for share price improvement coming over the next 2/3 months.To that end, what do you think will be the trigger for realising solid share price value with regard the MCPP, bar an offer being made for the project.See above.I have a value of approx $150-175m for selling a 300MW config with the coal, if retained being worth 25p at the 32.7mt price. Do you feel this is accurate?Approached the his in a slightly more round about way. They certainly didn't argue and I felt this wasn't far off of what they were thinking either.If sold, how do you I tend to make sure we don't end up selling a 1000MW plant for the price of a discounted 300MW plant.This was probably the most significant part of the his home day for me. Each 300MW will be sold as as separate company. Different level of ownership could be assigned over each stage. Therefore KIBO can benefit and realise from the full 1000MW. This IMO, significantly raises the value of the total investment we could realise given a longer term view. Assuming this does reach FC then alot more is at stake than a 300MW value. This alone as the most revealing part of the day. There is an absolutely massive value waiting to be unlocked. I also asked if now relationships between all parties had been established if a rinse and repeat of the whole project could be on the cards? LC just smiled and said, "Yes, of course it could".How do you best expect to materially realise value back to all share holders, would a special dividend vs income be your preferred method of distribution?A special dividend would always be a way to go, when realising share holder value.
25/4/2017
23:08
guitars4stars: Very good:Policy Changes -Can you explain the difference between the Tanzanian Energy and Policy Procurement Review that is underway, as per the recent presentation and the MEM Policy Review that is completed as per 23/3/17 RNS?These are two completely diffrent reviews. It's hard to put a linear %, in terms of how much of the TEPPR is completed but it's believed the main components have been completed and these aren't really a dealing factor to the ultimate delivery of the project. There is a gazetting process to ensure any changes don't conflict with any other laws etc before being made official.In your assessment how long will the Tanzainan Energy And Policy Procurement Review take to complete?Unable to accurately say but see above that the main bulk of the work has been completed already. So we should be on the home straight.As discussed last year, can you tell me of which, if either, KIBO have had direct input too?Yes they have had input into both of these. Therefore, I read they must have reasonable knowledge of the processes and there shaping of the future.Overall how do you expect all policy changes to benefit the MCPP?Kibo will be benefit for a more robust, solid and sustainable set of rules within the overall framework of reliability within Tanzania. I.e it will ensure all payments etc will be made as agreed which is important for a project like the MCPP which is going to, run for over 25 years.ESIA -What does the ESIA Certification process involve?Literally just a final check and a signing off process. There could be the odd question that may come back to KIBO or a confirmation of certain elements but basically it is what it is, a signing up process.Given the timelines for ESIA certification acquired by other companies, the ESIA certification for KIBO should be imminent. Is there anything else that is holding this up i.e hanging on outstanding policy changes and should we expect this any day now, by that reasoning?Yes KIBO are awaiting this to drop anytime now with nothing else holding this up.SML -Given the timelines for SML approval acquired by other companies, the SML approval for KIBO should be imminent. Is there anything else that is holding this up i.e hanging on outstanding policy changes and should we expect this any day now, by that reasoning?Again, yes KIBO are awaiting this to drop anytime now with nothing else holding this up.PPA -Given the phrases used in the RNS of the 23/3/17 of 'ensuring that a final PPA can be concluded ASAP'. Can we verify that preliminary PPA tariffs were applied to the facilitate the production of the IBFS and Financial Model?The conversation quickly negated this section of questions. LC explained that we have no figures to plug in anywhere and this method of thought is the direct opposite to what is actually happening in reality in this process. We are working this completely the other way around. We are saying what the tariff figures should be, driven from the independently produced figures via the feasibility studies completed. We have control and push negotiations to where we want them to be not the other way around. To me, this means we guarantee a profitable outcome for the project. If so, we're these preliminary PPA tarriffs agreed with Tanesco?N/AAgain, and if so, are the accuracy of these tariffs still withstanding given the policy reviews?N/AFC -Can we assume once we have an ESIA, SML and PPA we can advance straight to FC or are there any other workstreams that need completing that will hold up going to FC? Yes, although some parallel work means part of FC can already be in progress. It is possible to call a scenario of being in a Preliminary FC.Are SEPCO bound to pay you the $3.6m on entering FC or at the completion of FC?This will be on competition of FC but this is not seen to cause any problems in anyway.Will there be a news blackout during FC due to its sensitive nature?Once we reach FC, or more accurately on signing the PPA, that is when the real figures and detail can be released. LC seemed to allude on more than one occasion to look at the figures for the coal that you can workout to give a good pointer to the value that lies ahead. Therefore I don't see FC as requiring a suspension or news blackout.MCPP General -How our partners feel about the delays induced by the Government?They seem pretty understanding of the region and it's development. Obviously they have huge budgets and can outside these types of delays, so no issue here.Did Sandersons acquisition of part of the MCPP surprise you, especially vs their usual MO?LC agreed that obviously it isn't there normal line of business and that it probsbly surprised Sandersons themselves more than it did himself when they got so deeply involved. They have made a huge commitment that the believe they will benefit from.Are you any closer to knowing whether the project will be separated or integrated?No comment.What is your gut feel on which route you prefer to go down?No comment.Do you feel a 30% retention as previously alluded to is realistic or had that changed +/-?Yes this is entirely still possible and and therefore valid figure to base any calculations on.When Sandersons took their 2.5% valuing the MCPP at a discounted $100m, what was the agreed discount valued at?Although he couldn't recall the discounted figure he interesting said this value was based only on the figures from the mine. This took me back a touch as it was the complete opposite to what I expected. In fact, it may well, give rise to the fact my recent 25p a share figure for u the mine for each 300MW is too low. It puts it back to being more 35p and discounted at that !!! He must be expecting a much better price than $32.7mt for the coal being sold into the plant, imo.Can you confirm this 2.5% of the MCPP includes the mine. N/AHow does the MEN's statement that 30% of Tanzanian Mining Companies Share holding must be floated on the DSE affect all of our projects especially the MCPP?This would only affect projects that require an SML. Therfore only affect the MCPP. That said, LC was of the opinion that this would in all likelyhood NOT apply to us due to the National Strategic Importance of the project. Make of that, what you will.Can we still expect the MCPP to be spun out ala Katoro?It will either be spun out or in all likelyhood hood, Hanetti will be spun out leaving the MCPP on its own with KIBO.If so at what point would you need to initiate this?N/A. As an aside Noel seemed very excited about Hanetti. I had the feeling more work had been going on there than they have let on possibly.Sandersons -Can you give the exact repayment date of the current 2.9m loan facility?There is no set date and this is a very fluid arrangement. The distinct impressions I got was that there is alot more commitment between all these parties towards eachother than we give them credit for. Sandersons are not there to screw KIBO over for missed dates etc. From what LC said it seems very fluid and flexible. He seemed relaxed to the point of dismissing this as any issue whatsoever. How much currently of the facility has been drawn?I found it hard to believe they didn't know the answer to this but felt it was more a point of not wanting to give any shareholders privileged information, therefore, as it stands we received no figure on this.Given the slippage in timelines for FC what contingencies have you in place for settlement of monies drawn under the current Sandersons agreement and how can we best expect you to negotiate a solution to this?See above. Totally unworried, I suspect an alternative cash injection possibly from selling part of this his he MCPP down, potentially GE appeared the favourites imo.Do you conceed that where Sandersons has the right to convert up to £1.5m of amount drawn down on the Facility into Kibo Shares at the 30 day VWAP prior to the repayment date of the total Facility amount that there is an interest in the KIBO share price being low going through this period for them?LC seemed to be of the opinion this wasn't in Sandersons interest to have a low share price. I asked him if maybe it was in their favour for a short time i.e the 30 day VWAP period at least to get the max shares for the upto 1.5m but LC seemed to say the it was at our discretion whether upto max 1.5m of the facility was repayable as shares. I assume that as the deal and a repayment date seem flexible this maybe isn't a problem as previously explained but also I feel he has access to an alternate funding to eliminate this problem. I.e selling down a small stake in the MCPP possibly.How you you feel about this, as lot of investors feel uncomfortable with it and suspect some share price manipulation?They have and our investigating but so far have not found how or who is//could be causing any manipulation.Beaufort -Given the significant progress made with the MCPP, how do you feel when your house broker cannot upgrade their stock recommendation, despite your best efforts? Also how do you feel this looks to new or potential investors from the outside?Very small potatoes in the grand scheme of things.Government of TanzaniaWhat actually tangible evidence can you show investors as to the government being completely behind this project at this point?Look there isn't a letter or anything assigning KIBO any such special privileges. It's something that needs to happen and KIBO have got themselves to the front of the queue in terms of project development They have great relationships in terms of being completely transparent and honest with the Government and this extends both ways.Can we have some insight as to how KIBO benefits from a supposedly 'special' relationship with the Government?See aboveHave you any agreement with the government in any form that the MCPP will provide Stage 2 and 400MW for export via the ZTK?Yes this seems obviously where this second stage is going to go, however LC also and passionately pointed out this was not the only option. Only 300MW or Stage 1 can be evacuated into the grid as it stands now. However as an IPP'S he can sell Power to whomever he likes. It need not only be to Tanesco or into the ZTK. He can deal directly with the EAPP too for example or sell as to cement factories etc etc.Sepco III -:-) Can you confirm that KIBO initiated the revision to the original JDA agreement with SEPCO III for their best interests and not that Sepco the JDA was revised as they were not prepared to commit funds due to low IRRS of the Power side of the project.Emphatically and rightly pointed out by LC. Why would SEPCO enter into a deal for 1.8m plus 3.6m just for backcosts and nothing else when the original deal was $3m for 15%. There was no need for further discussion.NPV -Who verified or confirmed the RNS'D NPV figures?Tractebel, MINXCOM etc plus these were again independently assessed, produced and verified.Can you 100% confirm the NPV figures quoted of just shy of $500m per 300MW configuration are figures post debt interest, as I expect them to be.See above, do you really think these companies don't know how to calculate NPV that relates to the rest of the business world? Institutional Investors -You been on record as saying approx 50% of calls into you were from Investors wanting to get in on the MCPP. How come - barring Sandersons, we have no institutional investors notifiable in Kibo?LC was of the opinion that we are under the radar of serious II's. At a 30m cap they will become inerested and can invest. He has had alot of interest, so imo, on the back of significant news we won't possibly retrace next time we go past 10p, we might have bigger buyers buying into the price at the level for the reasons stated.Do you see this as an issue and are you attempting to address it?See above.Diversified Mining - What is the minimum mining permission needed for Kibo to start selling coal locally or will we be waiting for an all encompassing SML?It will be covered under the SML, already applied for.If less than an SML what is the minimum period to get it and can it be converted to an SML later?It will be covered under the SML already applied for.We know the Capex of the mine with regards the MCPP is $17m, what is the CAPEX for getting the mine into early production and how do you intend to raise this amount?The mine is the mine, it will take $17mWhat ia the current sell price per tonne of Tanzanian coal in local market?Amazingly $60/ $70 per mtWhat is the profit margin per tonne?No commentWhat is the nitial and potential sales potential for local domestic market?A lot of interest has been shown so far and still feeling out its full potential.Is there much competition in local market?Not much only one company he mentioned, he didn't seemed to know quite who Edenville would have as customers. Most other mines will have high transportation costs where as at Mbeya they are right on the train track therefore will be able to keep their costs down and provide coal still a lower price than other companies. LC was adamant no one would beat them for price.Is exporting of this coal feasible and being explored?Not impossible but for internal use only for now.CSR Program -What else will this entail and under what conditions were you required to run this?This was triggered via the ESIA but nothing else significant is planned for now.RNS -General feedback is that RNS' need more proof reading, could include more numbers for the market to correctly value us on, along with maybe a little shine when we do things well, although I do think we attempt to hide not so good news well.It was noted but felt most issues were not related to the real material news.Q & A -Given the amount of mails sent into you that must take up valuable time, can we schedule a monthly Q & A through Vox Markets, as this seemed to be a great way of investors being able to interact with you on current issues and may not only cut down on your email inbox but act as great PR.Dedicated email address to be set up with a monthly Q and A sessions as previously conducted via Vox.SP Value -As much as we can see progressions on all project fronts and especially the MCPP, do you conceed that there is only a material increase in share price value when the share is consistently worth more this year than it was last year?Although I didn't ask this the general conversation regarding the share price led to the opinion there will be several significant catalysts for share price improvement coming over the next 2/3 months.To that end, what do you think will be the trigger for realising solid share price value with regard the MCPP, bar an offer being made for the project.See above.I have a value of approx $150-175m for selling a 300MW config with the coal, if retained being worth 25p at the 32.7mt price. Do you feel this is accurate?Approached the his in a slightly more round about way. They certainly didn't argue and I felt this wasn't far off of what they were thinking either.If sold, how do you I tend to make sure we don't end up selling a 1000MW plant for the price of a discounted 300MW plant.This was probably the most significant part of the his home day for me. Each 300MW will be sold as as separate company. Different level of ownership could be assigned over each stage. Therefore KIBO can benefit and realise from the full 1000MW. This IMO, significantly raises the value of the total investment we could realise given a longer term view. Assuming this does reach FC then alot more is at stake than a 300MW value. This alone as the most revealing part of the day. There is an absolutely massive value waiting to be unlocked. I also asked if now relationships between all parties had been established if a rinse and repeat of the whole project could be on the cards? LC just smiled and said, "Yes, of course it could".
25/4/2017
10:11
guitars4stars: Excellent information.Policy Changes -Can you explain the difference between the Tanzanian Energy and Policy Procurement Review that is underway, as per the recent presentation and the MEM Policy Review that is completed as per 23/3/17 RNS?These are two completely diffrent reviews. It's hard to put a linear %, in terms of how much of the TEPPR is completed but it's believed the main components have been completed and these aren't really a dealing factor to the ultimate delivery of the project. There is a gazetting process to ensure any changes don't conflict with any other laws etc before being made official.In your assessment how long will the Tanzainan Energy And Policy Procurement Review take to complete?Unable to accurately say but see above that the main bulk of the work has been completed already. So we should be on the home straight.As discussed last year, can you tell me of which, if either, KIBO have had direct input too?Yes they have had input into both of these. Therefore, I read they must have reasonable knowledge of the processes and there shaping of the future.Overall how do you expect all policy changes to benefit the MCPP?Kibo will be benefit for a more robust, solid and sustainable set of rules within the overall framework of reliability within Tanzania. I.e it will ensure all payments etc will be made as agreed which is important for a project like the MCPP which is going to, run for over 25 years.ESIA -What does the ESIA Certification process involve?Literally just a final check and a signing off process. There could be the odd question that may come back to KIBO or a confirmation of certain elements but basically it is what it is, a signing up process.Given the timelines for ESIA certification acquired by other companies, the ESIA certification for KIBO should be imminent. Is there anything else that is holding this up i.e hanging on outstanding policy changes and should we expect this any day now, by that reasoning?Yes KIBO are awaiting this to drop anytime now with nothing else holding this up.SML -Given the timelines for SML approval acquired by other companies, the SML approval for KIBO should be imminent. Is there anything else that is holding this up i.e hanging on outstanding policy changes and should we expect this any day now, by that reasoning?Again, yes KIBO are awaiting this to drop anytime now with nothing else holding this up.PPA -Given the phrases used in the RNS of the 23/3/17 of 'ensuring that a final PPA can be concluded ASAP'. Can we verify that preliminary PPA tariffs were applied to the facilitate the production of the IBFS and Financial Model?The conversation quickly negated this section of questions. LC explained that we have no figures to plug in anywhere and this method of thought is the direct opposite to what is actually happening in reality in this process. We are working this completely the other way around. We are saying what the tariff figures should be, driven from the independently produced figures via the feasibility studies completed. We have control and push negotiations to where we want them to be not the other way around. To me, this means we guarantee a profitable outcome for the project. If so, we're these preliminary PPA tarriffs agreed with Tanesco?N/AAgain, and if so, are the accuracy of these tariffs still withstanding given the policy reviews?N/AFC -Can we assume once we have an ESIA, SML and PPA we can advance straight to FC or are there any other workstreams that need completing that will hold up going to FC? Yes, although some parallel work means part of FC can already be in progress. It is possible to call a scenario of being in a Preliminary FC.Are SEPCO bound to pay you the $3.6m on entering FC or at the completion of FC?This will be on competition of FC but this is not seen to cause any problems in anyway.Will there be a news blackout during FC due to its sensitive nature?Once we reach FC, or more accurately on signing the PPA, that is when the real figures and detail can be released. LC seemed to allude on more than one occasion to look at the figures for the coal that you can workout to give a good pointer to the value that lies ahead. Therefore I don't see FC as requiring a suspension or news blackout.MCPP General -How our partners feel about the delays induced by the Government?They seem pretty understanding of the region and it's development. Obviously they have huge budgets and can outside these types of delays, so no issue here.Did Sandersons acquisition of part of the MCPP surprise you, especially vs their usual MO?LC agreed that obviously it isn't there normal line of business and that it probsbly surprised Sandersons themselves more than it did himself when they got so deeply involved. They have made a huge commitment that the believe they will benefit from.Are you any closer to knowing whether the project will be separated or integrated?No comment.What is your gut feel on which route you prefer to go down?No comment.Do you feel a 30% retention as previously alluded to is realistic or had that changed +/-?Yes this is entirely still possible and and therefore valid figure to base any calculations on.When Sandersons took their 2.5% valuing the MCPP at a discounted $100m, what was the agreed discount valued at?Although he couldn't recall the discounted figure he interesting said this value was based only on the figures from the mine. This took me back a touch as it was the complete opposite to what I expected. In fact, it may well, give rise to the fact my recent 25p a share figure for u the mine for each 300MW is too low. It puts it back to being more 35p and discounted at that !!! He must be expecting a much better price than $32.7mt for the coal being sold into the plant, imo.Can you confirm this 2.5% of the MCPP includes the mine. N/AHow does the MEN's statement that 30% of Tanzanian Mining Companies Share holding must be floated on the DSE affect all of our projects especially the MCPP?This would only affect projects that require an SML. Therfore only affect the MCPP. That said, LC was of the opinion that this would in all likelyhood NOT apply to us due to the National Strategic Importance of the project. Make of that, what you will.Can we still expect the MCPP to be spun out ala Katoro?It will either be spun out or in all likelyhood hood, Hanetti will be spun out leaving the MCPP on its own with KIBO.If so at what point would you need to initiate this?N/A. As an aside Noel seemed very excited about Hanetti. I had the feeling more work had been going on there than they have let on possibly.Sandersons -Can you give the exact repayment date of the current 2.9m loan facility?There is no set date and this is a very fluid arrangement. The distinct impressions I got was that there is alot more commitment between all these parties towards eachother than we give them credit for. Sandersons are not there to screw KIBO over for missed dates etc. From what LC said it seems very fluid and flexible. He seemed relaxed to the point of dismissing this as any issue whatsoever. How much currently of the facility has been drawn?I found it hard to believe they didn't know the answer to this but felt it was more a point of not wanting to give any shareholders privileged information, therefore, as it stands we received no figure on this.Given the slippage in timelines for FC what contingencies have you in place for settlement of monies drawn under the current Sandersons agreement and how can we best expect you to negotiate a solution to this?See above. Totally unworried, I suspect an alternative cash injection possibly from selling part of this his he MCPP down, potentially GE appeared the favourites imo.Do you conceed that where Sandersons has the right to convert up to £1.5m of amount drawn down on the Facility into Kibo Shares at the 30 day VWAP prior to the repayment date of the total Facility amount that there is an interest in the KIBO share price being low going through this period for them?LC seemed to be of the opinion this wasn't in Sandersons interest to have a low share price. I asked him if maybe it was in their favour for a short time i.e the 30 day VWAP period at least to get the max shares for the upto 1.5m but LC seemed to say the it was at our discretion whether upto max 1.5m of the facility was repayable as shares. I assume that as the deal and a repayment date seem flexible this maybe isn't a problem as previously explained but also I feel he has access to an alternate funding to eliminate this problem. I.e selling down a small stake in the MCPP possibly.How you you feel about this, as lot of investors feel uncomfortable with it and suspect some share price manipulation?They have and our investigating but so far have not found how or who is//could be causing any manipulation.Beaufort -Given the significant progress made with the MCPP, how do you feel when your house broker cannot upgrade their stock recommendation, despite your best efforts? Also how do you feel this looks to new or potential investors from the outside?Very small potatoes in the grand scheme of things.Government of TanzaniaWhat actually tangible evidence can you show investors as to the government being completely behind this project at this point?Look there isn't a letter or anything assigning KIBO any such special privileges. It's something that needs to happen and KIBO have got themselves to the front of the queue in terms of project development They have great relationships in terms of being completely transparent and honest with the Government and this extends both ways.Can we have some insight as to how KIBO benefits from a supposedly 'special' relationship with the Government?See aboveHave you any agreement with the government in any form that the MCPP will provide Stage 2 and 400MW for export via the ZTK?Yes this seems obviously where this second stage is going to go, however LC also and passionately pointed out this was not the only option. Only 300MW or Stage 1 can be evacuated into the grid as it stands now. However as an IPP'S he can sell Power to whomever he likes. It need not only be to Tanesco or into the ZTK. He can deal directly with the EAPP too for example or sell as to cement factories etc etc.Sepco III -:-) Can you confirm that KIBO initiated the revision to the original JDA agreement with SEPCO III for their best interests and not that Sepco the JDA was revised as they were not prepared to commit funds due to low IRRS of the Power side of the project.Emphatically and rightly pointed out by LC. Why would SEPCO enter into a deal for 1.8m plus 3.6m just for backcosts and nothing else when the original deal was $3m for 15%. There was no need for further discussion.NPV -Who verified or confirmed the RNS'D NPV figures?Tractebel, MINXCOM etc plus these were again independently assessed, produced and verified.Can you 100% confirm the NPV figures quoted of just shy of $500m per 300MW configuration are figures post debt interest, as I expect them to be.See above, do you really think these companies don't know how to calculate NPV that relates to the rest of the business world? Institutional Investors -You been on record as saying approx 50% of calls into you were from Investors wanting to get in on the MCPP. How come - barring Sandersons, we have no institutional investors notifiable in Kibo?LC was of the opinion that we are under the radar of serious II's. At a 30m cap they will become inerested and can invest. He has had alot of interest, so imo, on the back of significant news we won't possibly retrace next time we go past 10p, we might have bigger buyers buying into the price at the level for the reasons stated.Do you see this as an issue and are you attempting to address it?See above.Diversified Mining - What is the minimum mining permission needed for Kibo to start selling coal locally or will we be waiting for an all encompassing SML?It will be covered under the SML, already applied for.If less than an SML what is the minimum period to get it and can it be converted to an SML later?It will be covered under the SML already applied for.We know the Capex of the mine with regards the MCPP is $17m, what is the CAPEX for getting the mine into early production and how do you intend to raise this amount?The mine is the mine, it will take $17mWhat ia the current sell price per tonne of Tanzanian coal in local market?Amazingly $60/ $70 per mtWhat is the profit margin per tonne?No commentWhat is the nitial and potential sales potential for local domestic market?A lot of interest has been shown so far and still feeling out its full potential.Is there much competition in local market?Not much only one company he mentioned, he didn't seemed to know quite who Edenville would have as customers. Most other mines will have high transportation costs where as at Mbeya they are right on the train track therefore will be able to keep their costs down and provide coal still a lower price than other companies. LC was adamant no one would beat them for price.Is exporting of this coal feasible and being explored?Not impossible but for internal use only for now.CSR Program -What else will this entail and under what conditions were you required to run this?This was triggered via the ESIA but nothing else significant is planned for now.RNS -General feedback is that RNS' need more proof reading, could include more numbers for the market to correctly value us on, along with maybe a little shine when we do things well, although I do think we attempt to hide not so good news well.It was noted but felt most issues were not related to the real material news.Q & A -Given the amount of mails sent into you that must take up valuable time, can we schedule a monthly Q & A through Vox Markets, as this seemed to be a great way of investors being able to interact with you on current issues and may not only cut down on your email inbox but act as great PR.Dedicated email address to be set up with a monthly Q and A sessions as previously conducted via Vox.SP Value -As much as we can see progressions on all project fronts and especially the MCPP, do you conceed that there is only a material increase in share price value when the share is consistently worth more this year than it was last year?Although I didn't ask this the general conversation regarding the share price led to the opinion there will be several significant catalysts for share price improvement coming over the next 2/3 months.To that end, what do you think will be the trigger for realising solid share price value with regard the MCPP, bar an offer being made for the project.See above.I have a value of approx $150-175m for selling a 300MW config with the coal, if retained being worth 25p at the 32.7mt price. Do you feel this is accurate?Approached the his in a slightly more round about way. They certainly didn't argue and I felt this wasn't far off of what they were thinking either.If sold, how do you I tend to make sure we don't end up selling a 1000MW plant for the price of a discounted 300MW plant.This was probably the most significant part of the his home day for me. Each 300MW will be sold as as separate company. Different level of ownership could be assigned over each stage. Therefore KIBO can benefit and realise from the full 1000MW. This IMO, significantly raises the value of the total investment we could realise given a longer term view. Assuming this does reach FC then alot more is at stake than a 300MW value. This alone as the most revealing part of the day. There is an absolutely massive value waiting to be unlocked. I also asked if now relationships between all parties had been established if a rinse and repeat of the whole project could be on the cards? LC just smiled and said, "Yes, of course it could".How do you best expect to materially realise value back to all share holders, would a special dividend vs income be your preferred method of distribution?A special dividend would always be a way to go, when realising share holder v
23/4/2017
20:33
guitars4stars: Very good:Policy Changes -Can you explain the difference between the Tanzanian Energy and Policy Procurement Review that is underway, as per the recent presentation and the MEM Policy Review that is completed as per 23/3/17 RNS?These are two completely diffrent reviews. It's hard to put a linear %, in terms of how much of the TEPPR is completed but it's believed the main components have been completed and these aren't really a dealing factor to the ultimate delivery of the project. There is a gazetting process to ensure any changes don't conflict with any other laws etc before being made official.In your assessment how long will the Tanzainan Energy And Policy Procurement Review take to complete?Unable to accurately say but see above that the main bulk of the work has been completed already. So we should be on the home straight.As discussed last year, can you tell me of which, if either, KIBO have had direct input too?Yes they have had input into both of these. Therefore, I read they must have reasonable knowledge of the processes and there shaping of the future.Overall how do you expect all policy changes to benefit the MCPP?Kibo will be benefit for a more robust, solid and sustainable set of rules within the overall framework of reliability within Tanzania. I.e it will ensure all payments etc will be made as agreed which is important for a project like the MCPP which is going to, run for over 25 years.ESIA -What does the ESIA Certification process involve?Literally just a final check and a signing off process. There could be the odd question that may come back to KIBO or a confirmation of certain elements but basically it is what it is, a signing up process.Given the timelines for ESIA certification acquired by other companies, the ESIA certification for KIBO should be imminent. Is there anything else that is holding this up i.e hanging on outstanding policy changes and should we expect this any day now, by that reasoning?Yes KIBO are awaiting this to drop anytime now with nothing else holding this up.SML -Given the timelines for SML approval acquired by other companies, the SML approval for KIBO should be imminent. Is there anything else that is holding this up i.e hanging on outstanding policy changes and should we expect this any day now, by that reasoning?Again, yes KIBO are awaiting this to drop anytime now with nothing else holding this up.PPA -Given the phrases used in the RNS of the 23/3/17 of 'ensuring that a final PPA can be concluded ASAP'. Can we verify that preliminary PPA tariffs were applied to the facilitate the production of the IBFS and Financial Model?The conversation quickly negated this section of questions. LC explained that we have no figures to plug in anywhere and this method of thought is the direct opposite to what is actually happening in reality in this process. We are working this completely the other way around. We are saying what the tariff figures should be, driven from the independently produced figures via the feasibility studies completed. We have control and push negotiations to where we want them to be not the other way around. To me, this means we guarantee a profitable outcome for the project. If so, we're these preliminary PPA tarriffs agreed with Tanesco?N/AAgain, and if so, are the accuracy of these tariffs still withstanding given the policy reviews?N/AFC -Can we assume once we have an ESIA, SML and PPA we can advance straight to FC or are there any other workstreams that need completing that will hold up going to FC? Yes, although some parallel work means part of FC can already be in progress. It is possible to call a scenario of being in a Preliminary FC.Are SEPCO bound to pay you the $3.6m on entering FC or at the completion of FC?This will be on competition of FC but this is not seen to cause any problems in anyway.Will there be a news blackout during FC due to its sensitive nature?Once we reach FC, or more accurately on signing the PPA, that is when the real figures and detail can be released. LC seemed to allude on more than one occasion to look at the figures for the coal that you can workout to give a good pointer to the value that lies ahead. Therefore I don't see FC as requiring a suspension or news blackout.MCPP General -How our partners feel about the delays induced by the Government?They seem pretty understanding of the region and it's development. Obviously they have huge budgets and can outside these types of delays, so no issue here.Did Sandersons acquisition of part of the MCPP surprise you, especially vs their usual MO?LC agreed that obviously it isn't there normal line of business and that it probsbly surprised Sandersons themselves more than it did himself when they got so deeply involved. They have made a huge commitment that the believe they will benefit from.Are you any closer to knowing whether the project will be separated or integrated?No comment.What is your gut feel on which route you prefer to go down?No comment.Do you feel a 30% retention as previously alluded to is realistic or had that changed +/-?Yes this is entirely still possible and and therefore valid figure to base any calculations on.When Sandersons took their 2.5% valuing the MCPP at a discounted $100m, what was the agreed discount valued at?Although he couldn't recall the discounted figure he interesting said this value was based only on the figures from the mine. This took me back a touch as it was the complete opposite to what I expected. In fact, it may well, give rise to the fact my recent 25p a share figure for u the mine for each 300MW is too low. It puts it back to being more 35p and discounted at that !!! He must be expecting a much better price than $32.7mt for the coal being sold into the plant, imo.Can you confirm this 2.5% of the MCPP includes the mine. N/AHow does the MEN's statement that 30% of Tanzanian Mining Companies Share holding must be floated on the DSE affect all of our projects especially the MCPP?This would only affect projects that require an SML. Therfore only affect the MCPP. That said, LC was of the opinion that this would in all likelyhood NOT apply to us due to the National Strategic Importance of the project. Make of that, what you will.Can we still expect the MCPP to be spun out ala Katoro?It will either be spun out or in all likelyhood hood, Hanetti will be spun out leaving the MCPP on its own with KIBO.If so at what point would you need to initiate this?N/A. As an aside Noel seemed very excited about Hanetti. I had the feeling more work had been going on there than they have let on possibly.Sandersons -Can you give the exact repayment date of the current 2.9m loan facility?There is no set date and this is a very fluid arrangement. The distinct impressions I got was that there is alot more commitment between all these parties towards eachother than we give them credit for. Sandersons are not there to screw KIBO over for missed dates etc. From what LC said it seems very fluid and flexible. He seemed relaxed to the point of dismissing this as any issue whatsoever. How much currently of the facility has been drawn?I found it hard to believe they didn't know the answer to this but felt it was more a point of not wanting to give any shareholders privileged information, therefore, as it stands we received no figure on this.Given the slippage in timelines for FC what contingencies have you in place for settlement of monies drawn under the current Sandersons agreement and how can we best expect you to negotiate a solution to this?See above. Totally unworried, I suspect an alternative cash injection possibly from selling part of this his he MCPP down, potentially GE appeared the favourites imo.Do you conceed that where Sandersons has the right to convert up to £1.5m of amount drawn down on the Facility into Kibo Shares at the 30 day VWAP prior to the repayment date of the total Facility amount that there is an interest in the KIBO share price being low going through this period for them?LC seemed to be of the opinion this wasn't in Sandersons interest to have a low share price. I asked him if maybe it was in their favour for a short time i.e the 30 day VWAP period at least to get the max shares for the upto 1.5m but LC seemed to say the it was at our discretion whether upto max 1.5m of the facility was repayable as shares. I assume that as the deal and a repayment date seem flexible this maybe isn't a problem as previously explained but also I feel he has access to an alternate funding to eliminate this problem. I.e selling down a small stake in the MCPP possibly.How you you feel about this, as lot of investors feel uncomfortable with it and suspect some share price manipulation?They have and our investigating but so far have not found how or who is//could be causing any manipulation.Beaufort -Given the significant progress made with the MCPP, how do you feel when your house broker cannot upgrade their stock recommendation, despite your best efforts? Also how do you feel this looks to new or potential investors from the outside?Very small potatoes in the grand scheme of things.Government of TanzaniaWhat actually tangible evidence can you show investors as to the government being completely behind this project at this point?Look there isn't a letter or anything assigning KIBO any such special privileges. It's something that needs to happen and KIBO have got themselves to the front of the queue in terms of project development They have great relationships in terms of being completely transparent and honest with the Government and this extends both ways.Can we have some insight as to how KIBO benefits from a supposedly 'special' relationship with the Government?See aboveHave you any agreement with the government in any form that the MCPP will provide Stage 2 and 400MW for export via the ZTK?Yes this seems obviously where this second stage is going to go, however LC also and passionately pointed out this was not the only option. Only 300MW or Stage 1 can be evacuated into the grid as it stands now. However as an IPP'S he can sell Power to whomever he likes. It need not only be to Tanesco or into the ZTK. He can deal directly with the EAPP too for example or sell as to cement factories etc etc.Sepco III -:-) Can you confirm that KIBO initiated the revision to the original JDA agreement with SEPCO III for their best interests and not that Sepco the JDA was revised as they were not prepared to commit funds due to low IRRS of the Power side of the project.Emphatically and rightly pointed out by LC. Why would SEPCO enter into a deal for 1.8m plus 3.6m just for backcosts and nothing else when the original deal was $3m for 15%. There was no need for further discussion.NPV -Who verified or confirmed the RNS'D NPV figures?Tractebel, MINXCOM etc plus these were again independently assessed, produced and verified.Can you 100% confirm the NPV figures quoted of just shy of $500m per 300MW configuration are figures post debt interest, as I expect them to be.See above, do you really think these companies don't know how to calculate NPV that relates to the rest of the business world? Institutional Investors -You been on record as saying approx 50% of calls into you were from Investors wanting to get in on the MCPP. How come - barring Sandersons, we have no institutional investors notifiable in Kibo?LC was of the opinion that we are under the radar of serious II's. At a 30m cap they will become inerested and can invest. He has had alot of interest, so imo, on the back of significant news we won't possibly retrace next time we go past 10p, we might have bigger buyers buying into the price at the level for the reasons stated.Do you see this as an issue and are you attempting to address it?See above.Diversified Mining - What is the minimum mining permission needed for Kibo to start selling coal locally or will we be waiting for an all encompassing SML?It will be covered under the SML, already applied for.If less than an SML what is the minimum period to get it and can it be converted to an SML later?It will be covered under the SML already applied for.We know the Capex of the mine with regards the MCPP is $17m, what is the CAPEX for getting the mine into early production and how do you intend to raise this amount?The mine is the mine, it will take $17mWhat ia the current sell price per tonne of Tanzanian coal in local market?Amazingly $60/ $70 per mtWhat is the profit margin per tonne?No commentWhat is the nitial and potential sales potential for local domestic market?A lot of interest has been shown so far and still feeling out its full potential.Is there much competition in local market?Not much only one company he mentioned, he didn't seemed to know quite who Edenville would have as customers. Most other mines will have high transportation costs where as at Mbeya they are right on the train track therefore will be able to keep their costs down and provide coal still a lower price than other companies. LC was adamant no one would beat them for price.Is exporting of this coal feasible and being explored?Not impossible but for internal use only for now.CSR Program -What else will this entail and under what conditions were you required to run this?This was triggered via the ESIA but nothing else significant is planned for now.RNS -General feedback is that RNS' need more proof reading, could include more numbers for the market to correctly value us on, along with maybe a little shine when we do things well, although I do think we attempt to hide not so good news well.It was noted but felt most issues were not related to the real material news.Q & A -Given the amount of mails sent into you that must take up valuable time, can we schedule a monthly Q & A through Vox Markets, as this seemed to be a great way of investors being able to interact with you on current issues and may not only cut down on your email inbox but act as great PR.Dedicated email address to be set up with a monthly Q and A sessions as previously conducted via Vox.SP Value -As much as we can see progressions on all project fronts and especially the MCPP, do you conceed that there is only a material increase in share price value when the share is consistently worth more this year than it was last year?Although I didn't ask this the general conversation regarding the share price led to the opinion there will be several significant catalysts for share price improvement coming over the next 2/3 months.To that end, what do you think will be the trigger for realising solid share price value with regard the MCPP, bar an offer being made for the project.See above.I have a value of approx $150-175m for selling a 300MW config with the coal, if retained being worth 25p at the 32.7mt price. Do you feel this is accurate?Approached the his in a slightly more round about way. They certainly didn't argue and I felt this wasn't far off of what they were thinking either.If sold, how do you I tend to make sure we don't end up selling a 1000MW plant for the price of a discounted 300MW plant.This was probably the most significant part of the his home day for me. Each 300MW will be sold as as separate company. Different level of ownership could be assigned over each stage. Therefore KIBO can benefit and realise from the full 1000MW. This IMO, significantly raises the value of the total investment we could realise given a longer term view. Assuming this does reach FC then alot more is at stake than a 300MW value. This alone as the most revealing part of the day. There is an absolutely massive value waiting to be unlocked. I also asked if now relationships between all parties had been established if a rinse and repeat of the whole project could be on the cards? LC just smiled and said, "Yes, of course it could".How do you best expect to materially realise value back to all share holders, would a special dividend vs income be your preferred method of distribution?A special dividend would always be a way to go, when realising share holder v
02/4/2017
23:33
s0n1cb00mb0y: Policy Changes -Can you explain the difference between the Tanzanian Energy and Policy Procurement Review that is underway, as per the recent presentation and the MEM Policy Review that is completed as per 23/3/17 RNS?These are two completely diffrent reviews. It's hard to put a linear %, in terms of how much of the TEPPR is completed but it's believed the main components have been completed and these aren't really a dealing factor to the ultimate delivery of the project. There is a gazetting process to ensure any changes don't conflict with any other laws etc before being made official.In your assessment how long will the Tanzainan Energy And Policy Procurement Review take to complete?Unable to accurately say but see above that the main bulk of the work has been completed already. So we should be on the home straight.As discussed last year, can you tell me of which, if either, KIBO have had direct input too?Yes they have had input into both of these. Therefore, I read they must have reasonable knowledge of the processes and there shaping of the future.Overall how do you expect all policy changes to benefit the MCPP?Kibo will be benefit for a more robust, solid and sustainable set of rules within the overall framework of reliability within Tanzania. I.e it will ensure all payments etc will be made as agreed which is important for a project like the MCPP which is going to, run for over 25 years.ESIA -What does the ESIA Certification process involve?Literally just a final check and a signing off process. There could be the odd question that may come back to KIBO or a confirmation of certain elements but basically it is what it is, a signing up process.Given the timelines for ESIA certification acquired by other companies, the ESIA certification for KIBO should be imminent. Is there anything else that is holding this up i.e hanging on outstanding policy changes and should we expect this any day now, by that reasoning?Yes KIBO are awaiting this to drop anytime now with nothing else holding this up.SML -Given the timelines for SML approval acquired by other companies, the SML approval for KIBO should be imminent. Is there anything else that is holding this up i.e hanging on outstanding policy changes and should we expect this any day now, by that reasoning?Again, yes KIBO are awaiting this to drop anytime now with nothing else holding this up.PPA -Given the phrases used in the RNS of the 23/3/17 of 'ensuring that a final PPA can be concluded ASAP'. Can we verify that preliminary PPA tariffs were applied to the facilitate the production of the IBFS and Financial Model?The conversation quickly negated this section of questions. LC explained that we have no figures to plug in anywhere and this method of thought is the direct opposite to what is actually happening in reality in this process. We are working this completely the other way around. We are saying what the tariff figures should be, driven from the independently produced figures via the feasibility studies completed. We have control and push negotiations to where we want them to be not the other way around. To me, this means we guarantee a profitable outcome for the project. If so, we're these preliminary PPA tarriffs agreed with Tanesco?N/AAgain, and if so, are the accuracy of these tariffs still withstanding given the policy reviews?N/AFC -Can we assume once we have an ESIA, SML and PPA we can advance straight to FC or are there any other workstreams that need completing that will hold up going to FC? Yes, although some parallel work means part of FC can already be in progress. It is possible to call a scenario of being in a Preliminary FC.Are SEPCO bound to pay you the $3.6m on entering FC or at the completion of FC?This will be on competition of FC but this is not seen to cause any problems in anyway.Will there be a news blackout during FC due to its sensitive nature?Once we reach FC, or more accurately on signing the PPA, that is when the real figures and detail can be released. LC seemed to allude on more than one occasion to look at the figures for the coal that you can workout to give a good pointer to the value that lies ahead. Therefore I don't see FC as requiring a suspension or news blackout.MCPP General -How our partners feel about the delays induced by the Government?They seem pretty understanding of the region and it's development. Obviously they have huge budgets and can outside these types of delays, so no issue here.Did Sandersons acquisition of part of the MCPP surprise you, especially vs their usual MO?LC agreed that obviously it isn't there normal line of business and that it probsbly surprised Sandersons themselves more than it did himself when they got so deeply involved. They have made a huge commitment that the believe they will benefit from.Are you any closer to knowing whether the project will be separated or integrated?No comment.What is your gut feel on which route you prefer to go down?No comment.Do you feel a 30% retention as previously alluded to is realistic or had that changed +/-?Yes this is entirely still possible and and therefore valid figure to base any calculations on.When Sandersons took their 2.5% valuing the MCPP at a discounted $100m, what was the agreed discount valued at?Although he couldn't recall the discounted figure he interesting said this value was based only on the figures from the mine. This took me back a touch as it was the complete opposite to what I expected. In fact, it may well, give rise to the fact my recent 25p a share figure for u the mine for each 300MW is too low. It puts it back to being more 35p and discounted at that !!! He must be expecting a much better price than $32.7mt for the coal being sold into the plant, imo.Can you confirm this 2.5% of the MCPP includes the mine. N/AHow does the MEN's statement that 30% of Tanzanian Mining Companies Share holding must be floated on the DSE affect all of our projects especially the MCPP?This would only affect projects that require an SML. Therfore only affect the MCPP. That said, LC was of the opinion that this would in all likelyhood NOT apply to us due to the National Strategic Importance of the project. Make of that, what you will.Can we still expect the MCPP to be spun out ala Katoro?It will either be spun out or in all likelyhood hood, Hanetti will be spun out leaving the MCPP on its own with KIBO.If so at what point would you need to initiate this?N/A. As an aside Noel seemed very excited about Hanetti. I had the feeling more work had been going on there than they have let on possibly.Sandersons -Can you give the exact repayment date of the current 2.9m loan facility?There is no set date and this is a very fluid arrangement. The distinct impressions I got was that there is alot more commitment between all these parties towards eachother than we give them credit for. Sandersons are not there to screw KIBO over for missed dates etc. From what LC said it seems very fluid and flexible. He seemed relaxed to the point of dismissing this as any issue whatsoever. How much currently of the facility has been drawn?I found it hard to believe they didn't know the answer to this but felt it was more a point of not wanting to give any shareholders privileged information, therefore, as it stands we received no figure on this.Given the slippage in timelines for FC what contingencies have you in place for settlement of monies drawn under the current Sandersons agreement and how can we best expect you to negotiate a solution to this?See above. Totally unworried, I suspect an alternative cash injection possibly from selling part of this his he MCPP down, potentially GE appeared the favourites imo.Do you conceed that where Sandersons has the right to convert up to £1.5m of amount drawn down on the Facility into Kibo Shares at the 30 day VWAP prior to the repayment date of the total Facility amount that there is an interest in the KIBO share price being low going through this period for them?LC seemed to be of the opinion this wasn't in Sandersons interest to have a low share price. I asked him if maybe it was in their favour for a short time i.e the 30 day VWAP period at least to get the max shares for the upto 1.5m but LC seemed to say the it was at our discretion whether upto max 1.5m of the facility was repayable as shares. I assume that as the deal and a repayment date seem flexible this maybe isn't a problem as previously explained but also I feel he has access to an alternate funding to eliminate this problem. I.e selling down a small stake in the MCPP possibly.How you you feel about this, as lot of investors feel uncomfortable with it and suspect some share price manipulation?They have and our investigating but so far have not found how or who is//could be causing any manipulation.Beaufort -Given the significant progress made with the MCPP, how do you feel when your house broker cannot upgrade their stock recommendation, despite your best efforts? Also how do you feel this looks to new or potential investors from the outside?Very small potatoes in the grand scheme of things.Government of TanzaniaWhat actually tangible evidence can you show investors as to the government being completely behind this project at this point?Look there isn't a letter or anything assigning KIBO any such special privileges. It's something that needs to happen and KIBO have got themselves to the front of the queue in terms of project development They have great relationships in terms of being completely transparent and honest with the Government and this extends both ways.Can we have some insight as to how KIBO benefits from a supposedly 'special' relationship with the Government?See aboveHave you any agreement with the government in any form that the MCPP will provide Stage 2 and 400MW for export via the ZTK?Yes this seems obviously where this second stage is going to go, however LC also and passionately pointed out this was not the only option. Only 300MW or Stage 1 can be evacuated into the grid as it stands now. However as an IPP'S he can sell Power to whomever he likes. It need not only be to Tanesco or into the ZTK. He can deal directly with the EAPP too for example or sell as to cement factories etc etc.Sepco III - :-) Can you confirm that KIBO initiated the revision to the original JDA agreement with SEPCO III for their best interests and not that Sepco the JDA was revised as they were not prepared to commit funds due to low IRRS of the Power side of the project.Emphatically and rightly pointed out by LC. Why would SEPCO enter into a deal for 1.8m plus 3.6m just for backcosts and nothing else when the original deal was $3m for 15%. There was no need for further discussion.NPV -Who verified or confirmed the RNS'D NPV figures?Tractebel, MINXCOM etc plus these were again independently assessed, produced and verified.Can you 100% confirm the NPV figures quoted of just shy of $500m per 300MW configuration are figures post debt interest, as I expect them to be.See above, do you really think these companies don't know how to calculate NPV that relates to the rest of the business world? Institutional Investors -You been on record as saying approx 50% of calls into you were from Investors wanting to get in on the MCPP. How come - barring Sandersons, we have no institutional investors notifiable in Kibo?LC was of the opinion that we are under the radar of serious II's. At a 30m cap they will become inerested and can invest. He has had alot of interest, so imo, on the back of significant news we won't possibly retrace next time we go past 10p, we might have bigger buyers buying into the price at the level for the reasons stated.Do you see this as an issue and are you attempting to address it?See above.Diversified Mining - What is the minimum mining permission needed for Kibo to start selling coal locally or will we be waiting for an all encompassing SML?It will be covered under the SML, already applied for.If less than an SML what is the minimum period to get it and can it be converted to an SML later?It will be covered under the SML already applied for.We know the Capex of the mine with regards the MCPP is $17m, what is the CAPEX for getting the mine into early production and how do you intend to raise this amount?The mine is the mine, it will take $17mWhat ia the current sell price per tonne of Tanzanian coal in local market?Amazingly $60/ $70 per mtWhat is the profit margin per tonne?No commentWhat is the nitial and potential sales potential for local domestic market?A lot of interest has been shown so far and still feeling out its full potential.Is there much competition in local market?Not much only one company he mentioned, he didn't seemed to know quite who Edenville would have as customers. Most other mines will have high transportation costs where as at Mbeya they are right on the train track therefore will be able to keep their costs down and provide coal still a lower price than other companies. LC was adamant no one would beat them for price.Is exporting of this coal feasible and being explored?Not impossible but for internal use only for now.CSR Program -What else will this entail and under what conditions were you required to run this?This was triggered via the ESIA but nothing else significant is planned for now.RNS -General feedback is that RNS' need more proof reading, could include more numbers for the market to correctly value us on, along with maybe a little shine when we do things well, although I do think we attempt to hide not so good news well.It was noted but felt most issues were not related to the real material news.Q & A -Given the amount of mails sent into you that must take up valuable time, can we schedule a monthly Q & A through Vox Markets, as this seemed to be a great way of investors being able to interact with you on current issues and may not only cut down on your email inbox but act as great PR.Dedicated email address to be set up with a monthly Q and A sessions as previously conducted via Vox.SP Value -As much as we can see progressions on all project fronts and especially the MCPP, do you conceed that there is only a material increase in share price value when the share is consistently worth more this year than it was last year?Although I didn't ask this the general conversation regarding the share price led to the opinion there will be several significant catalysts for share price improvement coming over the next 2/3 months.To that end, what do you think will be the trigger for realising solid share price value with regard the MCPP, bar an offer being made for the project.See above.I have a value of approx $150-175m for selling a 300MW config with the coal, if retained being worth 25p at the 32.7mt price. Do you feel this is accurate?Approached the his in a slightly more round about way. They certainly didn't argue and I felt this wasn't far off of what they were thinking either.If sold, how do you I tend to make sure we don't end up selling a 1000MW plant for the price of a discounted 300MW plant.This was probably the most significant part of the his home day for me. Each 300MW will be sold as as separate company. Different level of ownership could be assigned over each stage. Therefore KIBO can benefit and realise from the full 1000MW. This IMO, significantly raises the value of the total investment we could realise given a longer term view. Assuming this does reach FC then alot more is at stake than a 300MW value. This alone as the most revealing part of the day. There is an absolutely massive value waiting to be unlocked. I also asked if now relationships between all parties had been established if a rinse and repeat of the whole project could be on the cards? LC just smiled and said, "Yes, of course it could".How do you best expect to materially realise value back to all share holders, would a special dividend vs income be your preferred method of distribution?A special dividend would always be a way to go, when realising share holder value.
02/4/2017
23:31
s0n1cb00mb0y: UKIS 2017 KIBO NotesPolicy Changes -Can you explain the difference between the Tanzanian Energy and Policy Procurement Review that is underway, as per the recent presentation and the MEM Policy Review that is completed as per 23/3/17 RNS?These are two completely diffrent reviews. It's hard to put a linear %, in terms of how much of the TEPPR is completed but it's believed the main components have been completed and these aren't really a dealing factor to the ultimate delivery of the project. There is a gazetting process to ensure any changes don't conflict with any other laws etc before being made official.In your assessment how long will the Tanzainan Energy And Policy Procurement Review take to complete?Unable to accurately say but see above that the main bulk of the work has been completed already. So we should be on the home straight.As discussed last year, can you tell me of which, if either, KIBO have had direct input too?Yes they have had input into both of these. Therefore, I read they must have reasonable knowledge of the processes and there shaping of the future.Overall how do you expect all policy changes to benefit the MCPP?Kibo will be benefit for a more robust, solid and sustainable set of rules within the overall framework of reliability within Tanzania. I.e it will ensure all payments etc will be made as agreed which is important for a project like the MCPP which is going to, run for over 25 years.ESIA -What does the ESIA Certification process involve?Literally just a final check and a signing off process. There could be the odd question that may come back to KIBO or a confirmation of certain elements but basically it is what it is, a signing up process.Given the timelines for ESIA certification acquired by other companies, the ESIA certification for KIBO should be imminent. Is there anything else that is holding this up i.e hanging on outstanding policy changes and should we expect this any day now, by that reasoning?Yes KIBO are awaiting this to drop anytime now with nothing else holding this up.SML -Given the timelines for SML approval acquired by other companies, the SML approval for KIBO should be imminent. Is there anything else that is holding this up i.e hanging on outstanding policy changes and should we expect this any day now, by that reasoning?Again, yes KIBO are awaiting this to drop anytime now with nothing else holding this up.PPA -Given the phrases used in the RNS of the 23/3/17 of 'ensuring that a final PPA can be concluded ASAP'. Can we verify that preliminary PPA tariffs were applied to the facilitate the production of the IBFS and Financial Model?The conversation quickly negated this section of questions. LC explained that we have no figures to plug in anywhere and this method of thought is the direct opposite to what is actually happening in reality in this process. We are working this completely the other way around. We are saying what the tariff figures should be, driven from the independently produced figures via the feasibility studies completed. We have control and push negotiations to where we want them to be not the other way around. To me, this means we guarantee a profitable outcome for the project. If so, we're these preliminary PPA tarriffs agreed with Tanesco?N/AAgain, and if so, are the accuracy of these tariffs still withstanding given the policy reviews?N/AFC -Can we assume once we have an ESIA, SML and PPA we can advance straight to FC or are there any other workstreams that need completing that will hold up going to FC? Yes, although some parallel work means part of FC can already be in progress. It is possible to call a scenario of being in a Preliminary FC.Are SEPCO bound to pay you the $3.6m on entering FC or at the completion of FC?This will be on competition of FC but this is not seen to cause any problems in anyway.Will there be a news blackout during FC due to its sensitive nature?Once we reach FC, or more accurately on signing the PPA, that is when the real figures and detail can be released. LC seemed to allude on more than one occasion to look at the figures for the coal that you can workout to give a good pointer to the value that lies ahead. Therefore I don't see FC as requiring a suspension or news blackout.MCPP General -How our partners feel about the delays induced by the Government?They seem pretty understanding of the region and it's development. Obviously they have huge budgets and can outside these types of delays, so no issue here.Did Sandersons acquisition of part of the MCPP surprise you, especially vs their usual MO?LC agreed that obviously it isn't there normal line of business and that it probsbly surprised Sandersons themselves more than it did himself when they got so deeply involved. They have made a huge commitment that the believe they will benefit from.Are you any closer to knowing whether the project will be separated or integrated?No comment.What is your gut feel on which route you prefer to go down?No comment.Do you feel a 30% retention as previously alluded to is realistic or had that changed +/-?Yes this is entirely still possible and and therefore valid figure to base any calculations on.When Sandersons took their 2.5% valuing the MCPP at a discounted $100m, what was the agreed discount valued at?Although he couldn't recall the discounted figure he interesting said this value was based only on the figures from the mine. This took me back a touch as it was the complete opposite to what I expected. In fact, it may well, give rise to the fact my recent 25p a share figure for u the mine for each 300MW is too low. It puts it back to being more 35p and discounted at that !!! He must be expecting a much better price than $32.7mt for the coal being sold into the plant, imo.Can you confirm this 2.5% of the MCPP includes the mine. N/AHow does the MEN's statement that 30% of Tanzanian Mining Companies Share holding must be floated on the DSE affect all of our projects especially the MCPP?This would only affect projects that require an SML. Therfore only affect the MCPP. That said, LC was of the opinion that this would in all likelyhood NOT apply to us due to the National Strategic Importance of the project. Make of that, what you will.Can we still expect the MCPP to be spun out ala Katoro?It will either be spun out or in all likelyhood hood, Hanetti will be spun out leaving the MCPP on its own with KIBO.If so at what point would you need to initiate this?N/A. As an aside Noel seemed very excited about Hanetti. I had the feeling more work had been going on there than they have let on possibly.Sandersons -Can you give the exact repayment date of the current 2.9m loan facility?There is no set date and this is a very fluid arrangement. The distinct impressions I got was that there is alot more commitment between all these parties towards eachother than we give them credit for. Sandersons are not there to screw KIBO over for missed dates etc. From what LC said it seems very fluid and flexible. He seemed relaxed to the point of dismissing this as any issue whatsoever. How much currently of the facility has been drawn?I found it hard to believe they didn't know the answer to this but felt it was more a point of not wanting to give any shareholders privileged information, therefore, as it stands we received no figure on this.Given the slippage in timelines for FC what contingencies have you in place for settlement of monies drawn under the current Sandersons agreement and how can we best expect you to negotiate a solution to this?See above. Totally unworried, I suspect an alternative cash injection possibly from selling part of this his he MCPP down, potentially GE appeared the favourites imo.Do you conceed that where Sandersons has the right to convert up to £1.5m of amount drawn down on the Facility into Kibo Shares at the 30 day VWAP prior to the repayment date of the total Facility amount that there is an interest in the KIBO share price being low going through this period for them?LC seemed to be of the opinion this wasn't in Sandersons interest to have a low share price. I asked him if maybe it was in their favour for a short time i.e the 30 day VWAP period at least to get the max shares for the upto 1.5m but LC seemed to say the it was at our discretion whether upto max 1.5m of the facility was repayable as shares. I assume that as the deal and a repayment date seem flexible this maybe isn't a problem as previously explained but also I feel he has access to an alternate funding to eliminate this problem. I.e selling down a small stake in the MCPP possibly.How you you feel about this, as lot of investors feel uncomfortable with it and suspect some share price manipulation?They have and our investigating but so far have not found how or who is//could be causing any manipulation.Beaufort -Given the significant progress made with the MCPP, how do you feel when your house broker cannot upgrade their stock recommendation, despite your best efforts? Also how do you feel this looks to new or potential investors from the outside?Very small potatoes in the grand scheme of things.Government of TanzaniaWhat actually tangible evidence can you show investors as to the government being completely behind this project at this point?Look there isn't a letter or anything assigning KIBO any such special privileges. It's something that needs to happen and KIBO have got themselves to the front of the queue in terms of project development They have great relationships in terms of being completely transparent and honest with the Government and this extends both ways.Can we have some insight as to how KIBO benefits from a supposedly 'special' relationship with the Government?See aboveHave you any agreement with the government in any form that the MCPP will provide Stage 2 and 400MW for export via the ZTK?Yes this seems obviously where this second stage is going to go, however LC also and passionately pointed out this was not the only option. Only 300MW or Stage 1 can be evacuated into the grid as it stands now. However as an IPP'S he can sell Power to whomever he likes. It need not only be to Tanesco or into the ZTK. He can deal directly with the EAPP too for example or sell as to cement factories etc etc.Sepco III - :-) Can you confirm that KIBO initiated the revision to the original JDA agreement with SEPCO III for their best interests and not that Sepco the JDA was revised as they were not prepared to commit funds due to low IRRS of the Power side of the project.Emphatically and rightly pointed out by LC. Why would SEPCO enter into a deal for 1.8m plus 3.6m just for backcosts and nothing else when the original deal was $3m for 15%. There was no need for further discussion.NPV -Who verified or confirmed the RNS'D NPV figures?Tractebel, MINXCOM etc plus these were again independently assessed, produced and verified.Can you 100% confirm the NPV figures quoted of just shy of $500m per 300MW configuration are figures post debt interest, as I expect them to be.See above, do you really think these companies don't know how to calculate NPV that relates to the rest of the business world? Institutional Investors -You been on record as saying approx 50% of calls into you were from Investors wanting to get in on the MCPP. How come - barring Sandersons, we have no institutional investors notifiable in Kibo?LC was of the opinion that we are under the radar of serious II's. At a 30m cap they will become inerested and can invest. He has had alot of interest, so imo, on the back of significant news we won't possibly retrace next time we go past 10p, we might have bigger buyers buying into the price at the level for the reasons stated.Do you see this as an issue and are you attempting to address it?See above.Diversified Mining - What is the minimum mining permission needed for Kibo to start selling coal locally or will we be waiting for an all encompassing SML?It will be covered under the SML, already applied for.If less than an SML what is the minimum period to get it and can it be converted to an SML later?It will be covered under the SML already applied for.We know the Capex of the mine with regards the MCPP is $17m, what is the CAPEX for getting the mine into early production and how do you intend to raise this amount?The mine is the mine, it will take $17mWhat ia the current sell price per tonne of Tanzanian coal in local market?Amazingly $60/ $70 per mtWhat is the profit margin per tonne?No commentWhat is the nitial and potential sales potential for local domestic market?A lot of interest has been shown so far and still feeling out its full potential.Is there much competition in local market?Not much only one company he mentioned, he didn't seemed to know quite who Edenville would have as customers. Most other mines will have high transportation costs where as at Mbeya they are right on the train track therefore will be able to keep their costs down and provide coal still a lower price than other companies. LC was adamant no one would beat them for price.Is exporting of this coal feasible and being explored?Not impossible but for internal use only for now.CSR Program -What else will this entail and under what conditions were you required to run this?This was triggered via the ESIA but nothing else significant is planned for now.RNS -General feedback is that RNS' need more proof reading, could include more numbers for the market to correctly value us on, along with maybe a little shine when we do things well, although I do think we attempt to hide not so good news well.It was noted but felt most issues were not related to the real material news.Q & A -Given the amount of mails sent into you that must take up valuable time, can we schedule a monthly Q & A through Vox Markets, as this seemed to be a great way of investors being able to interact with you on current issues and may not only cut down on your email inbox but act as great PR.Dedicated email address to be set up with a monthly Q and A sessions as previously conducted via Vox.SP Value -As much as we can see progressions on all project fronts and especially the MCPP, do you conceed that there is only a material increase in share price value when the share is consistently worth more this year than it was last year?Although I didn't ask this the general conversation regarding the share price led to the opinion there will be several significant catalysts for share price improvement coming over the next 2/3 months.To that end, what do you think will be the trigger for realising solid share price value with regard the MCPP, bar an offer being made for the project.See above.I have a value of approx $150-175m for selling a 300MW config with the coal, if retained being worth 25p at the 32.7mt price. Do you feel this is accurate?Approached the his in a slightly more round about way. They certainly didn't argue and I felt this wasn't far off of what they were thinking either.If sold, how do you I tend to make sure we don't end up selling a 1000MW plant for the price of a discounted 300MW plant.This was probably the most significant part of the his home day for me. Each 300MW will be sold as as separate company. Different level of ownership could be assigned over each stage. Therefore KIBO can benefit and realise from the full 1000MW. This IMO, significantly raises the value of the total investment we could realise given a longer term view. Assuming this does reach FC then alot more is at stake than a 300MW value. This alone as the most revealing part of the day. There is an absolutely massive value waiting to be unlocked. I also asked if now relationships between all parties had been established if a rinse and repeat of the whole project could be on the cards? LC just smiled and said, "Yes, of course it could".How do you best expect to materially realise value back to all share holders, would a special dividend vs income be your preferred method of distribution?A special dividend would always be a way to go, when realising share holder value.
12/10/2016
14:51
paleje: This was the article, just found the link again:- Kibo Mining – Why the punters have got it all wrong By John Cornford 11 October 2016 6 mins. to read Kibo Mining – Why the punters have got it all wrong The key misconception behind the chat board ‘projections’ for Kibo MIning is a failure to understand the disconnect between a ‘project’; and the company ‘owning’ it. But this also stems from a failure to understand the concept of a project’s net present value (NPV). These commentators (and even the house broker’s headline – before hiding the caveats in the small print) have suggested a target value for Kibo’s shares based on MCPP’s NPV divided by current shares in issue. Or alternatively that MCPP can be ‘sold’ for its NPV. The former is nonsense because it ignores the fact that MCPP will have no value until the funds are raised – when current shares will suffer the dilution to project value caused by loan interest and by the substantial extra equity (whether in Kibo Mining (LON:KIBO) itself, or in the MDC, or in the MCPP) which will detract from its own share. That the second notion is nonsense can be seen from the formula for NPV – which is Long Term Profit (P) less cost to build (C). This is a crude approximation because in practice the timescale for uneven costs and profits is taken care of by discounting the cash flows year by year. But to simplify one can use NPV=P-C If someone were to ‘buy’ the project for its NPV he would still have to meet the capex to build. In which case he ends up with its NPV (P-C). In return for his purchase cost (P-C + C), he ends up with C, which he has had to pay out. Result: no profit – so no point in buying, and no scope for the owner to sell. (That does not mean that a partner can’t be brought in. But he would have to meet his share of the capex in return for a share of the profit.) An unfunded project might be saleable if it is exceptionally profitable, in which case a buyer could make his own profit from the margin between its profits and the cost of funding. Then, he could pay something (but still not the full NPV) to buy it and still make some profit. But for coal-to-power projects there is only a limited margin between profit and the cost of funding. Profitability is limited by the host government (who calls the shots through licensing so as to pay as little as possible for the power) to a level just enough to attract the international lenders and investors to provide the funds. At present that limit equates to an IRR of around 21%, so that any buyer for such a project would have no scope to make a profit on any margin between its IRR and the cost of funding, which will be the same for him as for anyone else. As already mentioned, what does have a value that could be sold, is work that has been done on the project, in Kibo’s case by the MDC which has spent on planning and gaining approvals and prospective partners to build and finance the MCPP. Having withdrawn its original promise to help funding, Kibo’s prospective partner, China’s Sepco III (not the same as Ncondezi Energy‘s (LON:NCCL) partner who is an operator as well as a builder), has agreed to pay Kibo half what MDC has spent in return for having first go at tendering for the construction. Paying the owners’ planning costs is normal in the industry because otherwise a contractor has to meet those costs itself before bidding. At present, some keyboard warriors are ‘hoping’ that this ‘back cost’ will be substantial (up to $20m, which is about half Kibo’s market cap so would be a useful chunk of cash). But that is pure speculation, whereas Kibo’s accounts show clearly that by now it will likely have spent only some £5m (over and above the original purchase of the coal mine, for which there is no logical reason for Sepco to pay anything) plus whatever has been spent by some advisors who have deferred their fees in the face of Kibo’s lack of funds to pay them. Sepco has so far paid $1.8m of these ‘back costs’, with the rest to be agreed in the coming week and it is hope for a substantial payment that appears to be buoying the shares. My expectation is for a payment of little more than needed to pay the deferred consultants, as well as to plug the £1.5m hole in Kibo’s balance sheet revealed in its latest interim results (apparently unnoticed by anyone). I therefore expect the shares to fall on the announcement. That fall will come after another of the chat board hopes for value crystalisartion was dashed on 23rd September through the announcement of the hiving off of Kibo’s only project with any solid value, its Imweru gold resource in Tanzania’s Lake Victoria Goldfield. Chat board estimates (taking no account of the cost to develop) ‘projectedR17; that resource to be ‘worth’ around 5p per Kibo share – the same as the then share price. But Imweru is now being hived off into a new company ‘Katoro Gold Mining’ which is planned to list on AIM to raise the first tranche of the necessary funds to establish a more solid resource and economic study, before further funds to develop any mine will be able to be raised. While Kibo will have 60% of the shares, their value will be diluted by the £1.2m (minimum) cash raise, and my estimate is that its holding will be ‘worth’ no more than 1p per current Kibo share. As a paper value and unless it manages to sell its holding, it won’t provide the cash Kibo needs to progress any of its other projects. Although Kibo says Katoro will eventually ‘deliver substantial value’ for shareholders, that will only be after raising development funds which will further dilute any value to them. That leaves MCPP as the only real value in Kibo – likely to be no more than my estimated 15p per share in issue – but only in three years’ time when the project is built and running – although that value per share might be anticipated in the market at financial close (when debt providers, contractors, the Tanzania authorities, and equity investors, have all signed up). This has been continually delayed since Kibo first promised, in late 2014, that it would be achieved H1 2015. Now, given that Kibo has yet to sign up anyone to provide the funds, or to build and operate the plant; has yet to agree a power tariff with Tanzania’s electric power co; and has yet to obtain a mining licence (whereas Ncondezi has all those things in place yet is still not expecting financial close before H2 2017), none of the facts to properly value Kibo’s shares look like being available before mid 2017 at the earliest. Even when the bankable feasibility study is published, it will only be one component of financial close. At a later date I will explain why Ncondezi Energy looks the better value. Edenville Energy (LON:EDL), though a long way behind in its own coal to power project, seems in a position to sell its surplus coal earlier, which is why its shares have perked up. But, buoyed as they are by misconceptions, Kibo shares look vulnerable, although investors’ excitement as they await the BFS, irrelevant though it will be to a valuation, might keep them afloat for a bit longer. Kibo Mining – Why the punters have got it all wrong By John Cornford 11 October 2016 6 mins. to read Kibo Mining – Why the punters have got it all wrong The key misconception behind the chat board ‘projections’ for Kibo MIning is a failure to understand the disconnect between a ‘project’; and the company ‘owning’ it. But this also stems from a failure to understand the concept of a project’s net present value (NPV). These commentators (and even the house broker’s headline – before hiding the caveats in the small print) have suggested a target value for Kibo’s shares based on MCPP’s NPV divided by current shares in issue. Or alternatively that MCPP can be ‘sold’ for its NPV. The former is nonsense because it ignores the fact that MCPP will have no value until the funds are raised – when current shares will suffer the dilution to project value caused by loan interest and by the substantial extra equity (whether in Kibo Mining (LON:KIBO) itself, or in the MDC, or in the MCPP) which will detract from its own share. That the second notion is nonsense can be seen from the formula for NPV – which is Long Term Profit (P) less cost to build (C). This is a crude approximation because in practice the timescale for uneven costs and profits is taken care of by discounting the cash flows year by year. But to simplify one can use NPV=P-C If someone were to ‘buy’ the project for its NPV he would still have to meet the capex to build. In which case he ends up with its NPV (P-C). In return for his purchase cost (P-C + C), he ends up with C, which he has had to pay out. Result: no profit – so no point in buying, and no scope for the owner to sell. (That does not mean that a partner can’t be brought in. But he would have to meet his share of the capex in return for a share of the profit.) An unfunded project might be saleable if it is exceptionally profitable, in which case a buyer could make his own profit from the margin between its profits and the cost of funding. Then, he could pay something (but still not the full NPV) to buy it and still make some profit. But for coal-to-power projects there is only a limited margin between profit and the cost of funding. Profitability is limited by the host government (who calls the shots through licensing so as to pay as little as possible for the power) to a level just enough to attract the international lenders and investors to provide the funds. At present that limit equates to an IRR of around 21%, so that any buyer for such a project would have no scope to make a profit on any margin between its IRR and the cost of funding, which will be the same for him as for anyone else. As already mentioned, what does have a value that could be sold, is work that has been done on the project, in Kibo’s case by the MDC which has spent on planning and gaining approvals and prospective partners to build and finance the MCPP. Having withdrawn its original promise to help funding, Kibo’s prospective partner, China’s Sepco III (not the same as Ncondezi Energy‘s (LON:NCCL) partner who is an operator as well as a builder), has agreed to pay Kibo half what MDC has spent in return for having first go at tendering for the construction. Paying the owners’ planning costs is normal in the industry because otherwise a contractor has to meet those costs itself before bidding. At present, some keyboard warriors are ‘hoping’ that this ‘back cost’ will be substantial (up to $20m, which is about half Kibo’s market cap so would be a useful chunk of cash). But that is pure speculation, whereas Kibo’s accounts show clearly that by now it will likely have spent only some £5m (over and above the original purchase of the coal mine, for which there is no logical reason for Sepco to pay anything) plus whatever has been spent by some advisors who have deferred their fees in the face of Kibo’s lack of funds to pay them. Sepco has so far paid $1.8m of these ‘back costs’, with the rest to be agreed in the coming week and it is hope for a substantial payment that appears to be buoying the shares. My expectation is for a payment of little more than needed to pay the deferred consultants, as well as to plug the £1.5m hole in Kibo’s balance sheet revealed in its latest interim results (apparently unnoticed by anyone). I therefore expect the shares to fall on the announcement. That fall will come after another of the chat board hopes for value crystalisartion was dashed on 23rd September through the announcement of the hiving off of Kibo’s only project with any solid value, its Imweru gold resource in Tanzania’s Lake Victoria Goldfield. Chat board estimates (taking no account of the cost to develop) ‘projectedR17; that resource to be ‘worth’ around 5p per Kibo share – the same as the then share price. But Imweru is now being hived off into a new company ‘Katoro Gold Mining’ which is planned to list on AIM to raise the first tranche of the necessary funds to establish a more solid resource and economic study, before further funds to develop any mine will be able to be raised. While Kibo will have 60% of the shares, their value will be diluted by the £1.2m (minimum) cash raise, and my estimate is that its holding will be ‘worth’ no more than 1p per current Kibo share. As a paper value and unless it manages to sell its holding, it won’t provide the cash Kibo needs to progress any of its other projects. Although Kibo says Katoro will eventually ‘deliver substantial value’ for shareholders, that will only be after raising development funds which will further dilute any value to them. That leaves MCPP as the only real value in Kibo – likely to be no more than my estimated 15p per share in issue – but only in three years’ time when the project is built and running – although that value per share might be anticipated in the market at financial close (when debt providers, contractors, the Tanzania authorities, and equity investors, have all signed up). This has been continually delayed since Kibo first promised, in late 2014, that it would be achieved H1 2015. Now, given that Kibo has yet to sign up anyone to provide the funds, or to build and operate the plant; has yet to agree a power tariff with Tanzania’s electric power co; and has yet to obtain a mining licence (whereas Ncondezi has all those things in place yet is still not expecting financial close before H2 2017), none of the facts to properly value Kibo’s shares look like being available before mid 2017 at the earliest. Even when the bankable feasibility study is published, it will only be one component of financial close. At a later date I will explain why Ncondezi Energy looks the better value. Edenville Energy (LON:EDL), though a long way behind in its own coal to power project, seems in a position to sell its surplus coal earlier, which is why its shares have perked up. But, buoyed as they are by misconceptions, Kibo shares look vulnerable, although investors’ excitement as they await the BFS, irrelevant though it will be to a valuation, might keep them afloat for a bit longer.
04/10/2016
00:43
gilbly: Good evening from Los Cristianos. All will be revealed eventually and we have to admit it is very intriguing how this will all pan out. More thoughts on asset disposal. SPV ASSET DISPOSAL & CASHBACK. Page 1 We all know that to progress MCPP towards production, unless the power element is sold off or LC pulls another rabbit out of the hat, it will be necessary to dispose of a share of the SPV assets and the final share of the assets we retain is of course important. In this repect any cashback we receive from SEPCO 3 has to be beneficial. It all depends on valuation of the project and the type of financial package LC negotiates and we could again be surprised as I think he is taking all of the challenges in his stride and will deliver to the best of his ability. LC has recourse to the extra 420 million or so shares of the 800m they are permissioned to sell. However I think he will keep this as an option and only deploy if required. He appears confident of the finance and as he says he has been working on this for a while and other options which hitherto were unavailable are now open to them. So with Standard Bank advising from the outset they must have progressed discussions to some degree re the availability of finance and concluded to such an extent to have a short list of preferred funding options pencilled in. Regardless of how advanced any progress was in relation to finance, perhaps Standard had taken this as far as they could and the Absa Bank now offers a more attractive approach towards addressing Kibo’s project objectives and financing and were also prepared to be more flexible re any retaining fee payments, thus relieving pressure on our finance situation. Perhaps Standard retaining fees were just too much, although these are usually negotiable. There may be other reasons for the bank replacement which have not been disclosed thus far. A bad press article re Standard Bank was circulating the other day, so perhaps the change was on the back of this news. The debt to equity funding will probably be on the basis of 75% / 25% or 70%/30% and perhaps it will be necessary for a degree of SPV asset disposal in order to raise this equity funding for an integrated project. Once we have the Equity funding the Debt funding is more or less ensured. Following the reduction in the Coal Capex from $38m to $17m and the reduction in coal quantity, the coal revenue of $48.4m/year is now $37.3m/year and with the 'All-in Cost Margin' reduced to 39% (down from 48%), this equates to a reduction in the coal profit from $23.5m a year to $14.53m a year, albeit EBIT. This is not an insignificant ROCE and of course this is offset by a corresponding increase in Power profits with the reduced coal / fuel supply now required. This reduction in Coal profit to $14.54m per year, results in an share price of 31p per share on a P/E of 10, (18p on P/E of 6). Of course this excludes any apportionment, interest and taxes, (No royalty payments on the coal, 12/8/2015 RNS). Page 2 So for the Coal alone, a return on a Capex of $17m is not insignificant at $14.53m per year and after 30% tax this is about $10m a year and on a forward p/e of 10 is 22p a share (13p with p/e of 6), with loan interest to be accounted for. The paybck period is short at 2.4 years but presumably the repayments will be over a period to be agreed with the lender. LC previously indicated that due to the robust fundamentals it was an attractive option for ‘Project Level Loan Financing’ (PLLF) and this would still appear to be the case even with the reduced Capex and profit which still has a short payback period. The attraction in project finance is the low interest rate of LIBOR +5% and as I understand it no loan payments until they generate revenue. So a marked improvement on the higher 15% to 21% interest rate of investment which Mr MasterInvestor advocates will be required for Institutions to get aboard. It all depends on how we progress from here and LC is obviously best positioned and knows the direction we are heading, and we currently don’t. In this regard, he has intimated it will be whatever makes the best commercial sense and there has to be different options and finance available. As ever for me, even with the reduced coal figures, it suggests immediately that the coal is so much more manageable with the smaller Capex of $17m and Equity funding of $4.25m, if required, and we would logically retain 100% of the coal, unless the coal element can be used as a great bargaining tool to obtain both a worthwhile working investment partner and an attractive financial package. It will also be easier to bring to fruition and has great potential for further exploration and expansion and increased profits associated with rising coal prices along with a negotiated contract to supply additional coal to fuel further phases of Power Plant extension up to at least 1000MW and beyond. There is also possible revenues. from coal to liquid technologies which should now have been investigated. I think they may well retain the Coal element and sell off part of, or all of the power assets. Either way LC will as he has also said he would, create value for share holders. All will be revealed. In an attempt to ascertain what degree of asset selling was necessary I calculated and posted previously (Jan 17), the amount of SPV assets we have to sell and retain in order to obtain the required level of equity funding. That computed the SPV asset disposal % and the % that Kibo would retain for various prices, ranging from 25 cents to $1.5. (then about 16p to a pound). The Coal Capex is now $17m and the Power is ($640m to $760m) and based on the minimum, this is a total Capex of $17m + $640m or a total of $657m. So at 25% equity share we need to find $164.25m of equity funding. (The Power $160m equity funding requirement easily swamps the coal so there has to be a good reason for an integrated project.). Again for me I immediately think of questions unanswered and the big one for me iß the unstated power tariff, which can be derived from the PFS figures. As it was so large compared with the 9 - 11 cents / KWh as discussed by SM of Beauforts, I have queried this with LC on more than one occasion and still no answer. If we are still in a quandary about this I will certainly be at the next meeting asking questions. Anyway to continue, the SPV asset table is updated below in line with $164.25m equity requirement and 356m shares, however it excludes the Sanderson 2.5% holding. Note the Fx remains as per original tables. Page 3 Table 1 – Table on SPV asset disposal to raise Equity funding of $164.25m. Rev refers to the revenue which is in $m along with the M/Cap and Equity. ..1......2........3........4.........5..........6........7.........8..........9 Price...Price…....No.....M/Cap....Equity....% SPV....SPV......Buyer.....% cover ..$.....pence....Shares....$m....Reqd $m....sold….Rev $m....Equity $m....by Kibo 1.00....65.36.....356.....356....164.25.....31.57....112.39.....51.86......68.43 0.75....49.02.....356.....267....164.25.....38.09....101.69.....62.56......61.91 0.50....32.68.....356.....178....164.25.....47.99.....85.42.....78.83......52.01 0.25....16.34.....356......89....164.25.....64.86.....57.72…...106.53......35.14 The table shows that as the share price reduces, the % of SPV assets needed to be sold increases thus reducing the asset % Kibo retain. In addition as expected the Buyer’s guaranteed equity funding increases with their increased % ownership. At a $1.0 share price, Kibo retain 68.4% of the SPV asset and at 25 cents they retain only 35%. This excludes Sandersons holding which is considered in the tables below where the valuation equates to a share price which is effectively 21p and 13p for the 2 cases considered. I suppose I could have considered the power only, assuming we retain 100% of the coal, but the $160m equity required is not far removed from the $164.25m figure above, so not too much change in the figures and a reason for holding the Coal element. Keep the coal and we have $14.53m profit, albeit before interest and taxes and with no apportionment it is all Kibos. So as always it all depends on the value attached to the assets and the current Kibo fundamentals are better than expected according to LC. SPV ASSET DISPOSAL This allows for the base line valuation of MCPP, cashback from SEPCO III and Sanderson’s 2.5 % holding. I completed the calcs and then we had the Absa Bank news, but without full details, so I’ll just assume we have 3.5% to give away when required and have the equity to find. From the 1 Sept RNS re the Sanderson loan repayment, we now have the first independent baseline value for the MCPP . So a valuation of the MCPP, which till now was absent thus provides a benchmark valuation of $100m. So this allows us to establish a more accurate estimate of the degree of asset disposal to realise the appropriate funding, if asset disposal is necessary. It all hinges around the perceived valuation of the project as we move closer to financial ready milestone. Of course from the Sandersons consideration of 2.5% share for repayment of the $1.5m loan, this assigns a slightly different reduced value of $60m for the MCPP, which may also be used as a starting point for SPV asset disposal calcs. ( or Mbeya Development Co Ltd as they appear to be calling it). Page 4 The SPV disposal calculation will also be more meaningful now that we have this $100m valuation, which is about 21p a share and it is within the range of prices in the original SPV asset selling table. It is also encouraging that the valuation is within the 18p to 27p range LC referred to in the escalation mechanism for MTR exercising their warrant options. ( RNS 19/1/2016 RNS). Following receipt of the $1.8m first payment from SEPCO III, we eagerly await the negotiated final figure. In any event it would certainly be good news to receive somewhere between $10m and $20m in back costs as we do need a large amount of money if we are to retain as much of the MCPP asset as possible. In esscence we get what we get and it may be lower or higher than our expectations. For interest NCCL had historic costs of $17.5m, factored up to $25.5m in their agreement with SEP. Of course for this, SEP gained 60% of the project assets which is to be accompanied by a further $35m. I think some have suggested in the past that Kibo asset retention figure may be in the order of 30% of the MCPP. Anyway from the project approach so far it appears we are heading for an integrated project and the tables below are based on two valuation figures for the MCPP, which are the $100m benchmark valuation as outlined in the RNS and the other is based on the Sandersons arrangement of 2.5% share for a $1.5m repayment, a valuation of $60m. (About 13p a share). So looking at the disposal of the SPV assets in order for the required equity to be covered, Kibo have to sell sufficient assets to cover the Equity funding for the asset % they retain. The calculations below determines what assets we have to sell to move forward fully funded on the equity side so that the debt funding is a certainty. The 2 tables below consider the MCPP valuation cases of $100m and $60m which respectively equate to $1m and $0.6m for each 1% of asset share. In addition the tables consider the following 3 cases for SPV assets disposal, a) without cashback b) with a cashback of $10m and c) with a cashback of $20m from SEPCO III, which may be on the high side.. In the tables the required equity funding will be covered by: - the Kibo equity, comprised of the revenue from the % SPV assets sold, plus the cashback from SEPCO for a share of the backcosts. - the equity funding to be guaranteed by the Buyer for the SPV asset % purchased. - the equity funding due according to Sanderson’s 2.5% holding Any buyer is responsible for the required Equity funding based on the % of the SPV assets they have purchased. Page 5 Table 2 - SPV asset disposal to realise the required Equity funding ($100m valuation). Table is based on the benchmark valuation of $100m, which is $1m for each 1% of asset and assumes a required Equity of $164.25m and allows for cashback and includes Sanderson’s 2.5% holding. Cash back and Equity figures are in $m. Cash.....Reqd......%.......%.......%......Buyer.....Sands......Kibo Back...Equity.....Sold....Sands....Kibo....Equity....Equity....Equity 0.......164.25.....60.60....2.5....36.90.....99.54....4.11.....60.60 10......164.25.....56.82....2.5....40.68.....93.33....4.11.....66.81 20......164.25.....53.04....2.5....44.46.....87.11....4.11.... 73.04 The cashback is included in the figure for the Kibo Equity. Row 1 is without cashback and Rows 2 and 3 are calculated on the basis of a cashback of $10m and $20m respectively from SEPCO III. As expected we see that as the cashback increases the asset disposal, the Sold %, reduces, so Kibo retain a higher % of the assets and are able cover more of the Equity, which includes the cashback. The last row of the table for example simply says the cashback is $20m, the Equity required is $164.25m, the % Sold is calculated to realise adequate equity coverage and is 53%, Sandersons share is 2.5%, Kibo % retained is 44.5%, followed by the respective Equity covered by the Buyer, Sandersons and lastly the Kibo Equity which incorporates the Revenue from the sale and the appropriate cashback. Ref to the last row. To check Kibo Equity, using the valuation of $1m = 1% of asset, the revenue from the sale of 53.04% of the asset is 53.04% x $1m/1% = $53.04m. The Kibo equity is then the Revenue + Cashback = $53.04m + $20m = $73.04m. This is 44.5% of the best $164.25m equity required. The % should sum to 100% and the Equity should equate to the required equity total of $164.25m. So for Table 2, on the basis of a $100m valuation, without a cash back we retain a minimum of 37% of the asset, with a $10m cashback we retain 40.7% and with a $20m cashback we retain 44.5% of the asset. So that is the results for a valuation of $100m for the three cases considering, no cashback, $10m cashback and a $20m cashback. The table below is similar but with a reduced valuation baseline. Table 3 – SPV asset disposal to realise the required equity funding. ($60m valuation). Despite the fact we have a $100m valuation for interest, and for a more pessimistic viewpoint, I have calculated the table on the basis that the SPV asset disposal is the $60m valuation as derived from Sanderson’s loan settlement of 2.5% for the $1.5m. Page 6 This is equal to $0.6m for each 1% of asset. It considers the same equity of $164.25m and includes cashback and Sanderson’s 2.5%. Cash....Reqd.....%..........%.......%.......Buyer......Sands…….Kibo Back...Equity....Sold....Sands.....Kibo..…..Equity....Equity....Equity 0......164.25.....71.41....2.5.....26.09....117.30.....4.11....42.84 10.....164.25.....66.95....2.5.....30.55....109.97.....4.11....50.17 20.....164.25.....62.50....2.5.....35.00....102.64.....4.11....57.50 So for Table 3 with a reduced value of $60m attached to the assets, (about 13p/share), without cash back we retain 26% of the asset, with $10m cashback we retain 30.5% and with a $20m cashback we retain 35% of the asset So ultimately, it all depends on the value attached to the assets so the release of the final figures should confirm that the Kibo fundamentals are still better than expected. More news will be released as we start the financial arrangement process and the project valuation should improve above this $100m base line figure and with it an increase in the % of SPV assets Kibo retain. So that indicates the % of SPV assets Kibo have to sell to cover the equity for the % they retain and it all hinges around the project valuation and what investors will pay. I think LC will negotiate a good deal on any disposal of assets, which may or may not be linked to a second power plant MW phase and if it is, then perhaps we have another leverage tool to obtaining an improved deal. LC has recourse to the extra 420m or so shares of the 800m they are permissioned to sell. However I think he will keep this as an option only if required and of course may opt for a combination of asset disposal and a share issue if required, who knows. Most of us do realise that we don't get a free ride and we have to surrender assets in order for the project to come to fruition. That is what business is all about, raising money by going to the market or existing shareholders, or sacrificing ownership and disposing of an asset such that the small explorer/developer has the necessary funding to proceed towards their end goal and often it is not an easy job. However the final outcome should be rewarding for those patient enough to wait, regardless of how LC plays it. Sweet dreams.
Kibo Mining share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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