Ishr Turkey Discussion Threads

[hiriam007] 15/6/2015 15:32

Perhaps someone would be kind enough to answer 3 queries.

Can political manoeuvring eg the formation of a new coalition government continue into Ramadan?

Can a snap election be called in Ramadan?

Can a snap election take place in Ramadan?

Thank you in advance.

[1nf3rn0] 01/4/2014 20:54

It's been a good few weeks for the emerging markets. I wonder if this is now a turning point after a couple of weak years and whether the cycle will change again from developed to emerging economies.

[praipus] 11/3/2014 20:58

Have you had a chance to browse this thread before? :-)

[1nf3rn0] 11/3/2014 20:40

Praipus. Brazil ETF I hold has EPIC IBZL. Bought JP Morgan India investment trust, JPII. Still not committed to a South Korea fund. May just go for a more general south East Asian fund instead... There was a low cost HSBC fund I was looking into. Anyone got any other recommendations?

Still keeping an eye on Turkey, but will wait till closer to election time before maybe adding more.

[praipus] 03/3/2014 23:01

If it's not too much trouble please could you post the EPIC codes for the ETF's you mention?

[1nf3rn0] 03/3/2014 22:20

Russia certainly got a whole lot cheaper. The Crimea tensions are of course dragging down other safer markets too so some bargains should appear. I'm looking at India and South Korea as my next markets to buy into, as well as adding to Brazil.

[killing_time] 12/2/2014 09:29

Thanks 1nf3rn0, The note from Fidelity is very informative.

[1nf3rn0] 11/2/2014 23:17

Thanks for that kt. I've made an initial purchase of both ITKY and IBZL this week, to "have some skin in the game", and will look to add more during the year.

On the elections, this note from Fidelity:

"Emerging markets face an array of election challenges in 2014, with the potential for both optimism and disappointment with regard to necessary structural reform outcomes. The first half of the year is particularly significant, with general elections in South Africa (April); parliamentary and presidential elections in Indonesia (April and July, respectively); parliamentary elections in Hungary (April); presidential elections in Colombia (May); and general elections in India (May). In 2014, presidential elections will be held in Turkey (August) and Brazil (October), two countries whose economic management have been the subject of street protests by unhappy constituents.

Our previous studies of elections suggest that markets tend to underperform in the three to six months prior to an election amid policy uncertainty, and recover in the subsequent time frame-no matter the political stripes of the winning party."

An interesting observation, although I will certainly keep some cash free in each case until post-election as past trends don't always repeat.

[killing_time] 09/2/2014 11:35

Hi 1nf3rn0.

Like you i am putting together a watch list of emerging market investments. With the pound rising and EM currencies falling due to the reduction in QE i am sitting on the side lines waiting for this to stop before i start to invest.

This is my watch list so far:

JP Morgan Russian- Top of my list, most under valued of all emerging markets.

Weiss Korea Opportunity Fund- Good investment in South Korea but share price is at a premium to NAV.

JP Morgan Indian
JP Morgan Brazil Fund
Fidelity China
Vietnam Opportunity Fund
i shares MSCI Turkey- Cannot find a pure investment trust for Turkey.

Having played regions before with investment trusts i find the most important thing to watch is currency movement.

India,Turkey and Brazil all have elections this year so something to take into account.

Mexico is the most tipped region but hard to get exposure unless you buy American trusts.

Japan is tipped alot but with so much QE going on there it just puts me off.

Edit: A few Mexican ETF's listed in London: CMEC, XMEX, HMED.

[1nf3rn0] 08/2/2014 12:38

Praipus, I was just browsing for emerging market investments as I am aware of the sell off that has been ongoing over the last year or two, and sentiment will turn at some point. ITKY and IBZL are 2 I've noted, and JII possibly for an investment in India which I think has better long-term prospects than Brazil or Turkey. I'm not too interested in Russia.

Anything else you (or anyone else here) would recommend other than iShares for exposure to Turkey and Brazil?

I couldn't find an iShares India in my share account list of investments, hence JII.

[praipus] 07/2/2014 08:33

Thanks Alphahunter, have you got any ITKY in the portfolio?

What else are you buying or holding at the moment?

[alphahunter] 06/2/2014 23:14

Turkey has been tipped in Money Week and Investors' Chronicles indirectly by the Sam Vecht, fund manager of Blackrock Greater Europe.

[praipus] 05/2/2014 09:02

Some institutions I track on the WAM thread still hold and have even bought more OTM (The Otterman F_und).

There are people who believe the EU might be better off now if it had encouraged Turkey to become full Members of the European Union long ago. Their large young well educated work force would have and still could pow_er European grow_th.

EDIT:


From a gut feel the chart has been lower, what if the US dollar went lower too?

Definitely one to watch.

How did they come on to your radar?

[1nf3rn0] 04/2/2014 22:58

Interesting looking at the comments above from a year ago. The posters proved right to be cautious.

Any thoughts on whether now is the time to be buying into Turkish stocks? Or is there still a way to drop while this currency crisis plays out? It's on my watchlist for now.

[deepvalueinvestor] 21/1/2013 19:11

Indeed, it looks "hot" in the short term

[praipus] 21/1/2013 16:48

Difficult to sift the signals from the noise. Well done on 3i I did the same thing with PEQ and LWT and hope to do the same with IPO.

Cant find an inverse ETF for this:-(

[deepvalueinvestor] 19/1/2013 23:45

Nothing in turkey yet but it is an area of interest to me due to young workforce and crucial geographical location.

My problem with any equity investment right now is that markets have risen for almost four years, not due to any improvement in global growth ( other than a bit more stability in Chinese growth recently, so 8% likely in 2013) but because central banks have made us all take on more risk than we should due to ultra low interest rates and QE. We still don't know the long term implications of these experiments but we do know that Western government debt levels are awful and only getting worse. If economic growth doesn't massively improve in the West over the coming years then we are all in trouble.

I heard the director general of the CBI the other night ( as an aside, just back from Turkey and bullish about the opportunities there) who is optimistic but expects only 1% GDP growth. We need much more than that.

The other thing that makes be bearish is an email I received recently telling me that 2013 was going to be great for equities as 90% of those investment professionals asked in a survey were bullish. Sounds like a bubble to me. Utter complacency despite 50% youth unemployment in Spain and Greece. If you look at the history books, they are perhaps one step from anarchy with such dire statistics.

I don't know whether the sell off will br triggered by the Americans or the Europeans or from somewhere else but selling into euphoria and moving to cash seems sensible right now. For example, I just dumped 3i Group after discount to nav snapped from 40% to 10% in six months. Silly season.

[praipus] 19/1/2013 23:04

deepvalueinvestor, sorry I was hoping you might expand on your concerns. For "peso problem" read everyone buying now is ignoring the chance of an overnight 40% drop in value. Or are they?

Have you got any? If so do you or will you hedge in any way?

davebowler, thank you, didnt think you were ever comming back:-)

[davebowler] 19/1/2013 22:39

I've added the link Praipus.I mistook yours for mine!

[davebowler] 19/1/2013 22:36

is already near the header Praipus

[deepvalueinvestor] 18/1/2013 23:33

I had to google that....so you mean the market is expensive because there is a chance that turkey could be the next big thing?

[praipus] 18/1/2013 21:47

Thanks deepvalueinvestor, do you think it might become a bit like the "Peso problem"?

[deepvalueinvestor] 18/1/2013 19:54

Thanks for setting this up. What I found interesting in my investigations is that most of the big Turkish companies are still in state hands. Akbank looks interesting but it keeps hitting new highs and this makes me a bit nervous as I am generally bearish about markets.