Frontline Share Discussion Threads

[pat o hat] 22/5/2002 11:16

Q1 results are out.



Frontline made a profit, not a loss as expected, but they have cut the divi. Q2 outlook moderate. A little longer to wait I think.

[pat o hat] 15/5/2002 21:55

Frontline closed at $12.03 tonight in New York, breaking $12 which is its resistance level for US investors (according to some guys on Yahoo anyway).

This is not quite as good as it might seem because of the fall in the $.

However, earlier in Oslo (where the main volume is), according to Bloomberg

"Frontline Ltd (FRO NO) rose 5 kroner, or 5.3 percent, to 99, climbing a third day. The world's biggest owner of oil supertankers is benefiting as freight rates have risen this week on increased demand for transportation services"

These are words not heard for a year or more... breakout potential here I wd. suggest.

PS Q1 results expected imminently. The actual figures will be dreadful going on tanker reports.

PPS Hmmmmm... the 200 day ema is still falling on the Oslo chart. Caution maybe needed, a break now could be abortive.

[pat o hat] 03/5/2002 21:29

Oh I see, OMI Corp, OMM.N



Yes that is very interesting EnergyI. OMI operates product carriers as well as crude. Also a lot of time charters I note. Frontline does seem to have a death-or-glory approach and operates only crude carriers I understand.

Thanks, I will consider this further. I also have a position in James Fisher, FSJ.

[energyi] 03/5/2002 21:00

Pat,
Have you compared Frontline with OMI?

[pat o hat] 02/5/2002 10:43

Hey Frontline is moving again! Risen 10% in Oslo this morning in heavy trade following on from closing strength Tuesday (Oslo was closed yesterday).

See charts in the header message.

Q1 results not out yet, should be soon.

90,000 more shares bought back today.

Watch the $12 level in New York.

Update: This is a very interesting piece from Bloomberg about today's action.

[pat o hat] 29/4/2002 01:12

Thanks energyi, any comments and suggestions will be gratefully and graciously received!

[energyi] 28/4/2002 20:47

Pat,
Thanks for creating this thread.
As an ex-shipping banker, I will study it with interest
when I have more time

[pat o hat] 28/4/2002 19:33

Hey, this is more like it.

DUBAI (AFX) - OPEC members increased production in March, ending a
seven-month decline, with Algeria pumping the most significant percentage over
quota, the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) reported in an article to be
published in its Monday edition.
Total production by the 10 states, excluding Iraq, rose by 255,000 barrels
per day to 22.775 mln bpd.
Most countries exceeded their quotas, but Algeria produced 850,000 bpd,
compared with a quota of 693,000 bpd.
The industry newsletter said its sources put Iranian production in March at
3.295 mln bpd, compared to 3.370 mln in February and a quota of 3.186 mln bpd.
Iraq's production, which falls outside the quota and is regulated under a
United Nations programme, remained low at 2.53 million bpd because of the
continued conflict over surcharges Baghdad levies.
In March, OPEC decided to maintain a 1.5 mln bpd reduction in output until
the end of June to try to maintain prices.
A June 26 meeting is due to review the situation.
Oil prices remained firm this week as the market, supported by continued
concerns over the Middle East crisis, took bearish US inventory data in its
stride.
By Friday, Brent crude for June delivery was trading at 26.00 dollars a
barrel up 78 cents from a week earlier.

Remember, OPEC output including Iraq has to hit 30 mbbl/day for FRO to have multi-bagger potential. Only 25.3 mbbl/day in March, and only a small increase, but note the bit about ending a 7 month decline.

PS The E.A. Gibson weekly report, link at the top of the thread, seems to imply slight signs of life in the long haul VLCC market, which it has not done while I have been monitoring it.

[pat o hat] 14/4/2002 14:27

Well tortured, you may be right in the short term. Actually before today I thought it might do a "cup and handle" -- test $12 again and fail one more time before breaking through. I have just got a small stake as a marker, planning to add above the $12 if and when.

[torturedsoul] 14/4/2002 14:22

hi Pat,

to me it looks like the price has failed at $12 resistance and has broken it's uptrend quite convincingly.

no matter what the fundamentals are saying, the chart is saying 'sell' imho.

good luck.

[pat o hat] 14/4/2002 14:22

Further to the last message, in my H.O., Frontline has pretty much said "there is a floor under these shares at 90 kroner" which is about 10 dollars. See Oslo 5 day chart in the header message at the top of the thread.

[pat o hat] 14/4/2002 14:08

Frontline is buying itself, apparently. The authorised 7.5 million share buyback is about 10% of shares in issue.

If oil takes off again, after the fracas in Caracas, FRO might go with it -- worth watching. 2001 earnings 4.4 dollars a share, remember.

Friday April 12, 11:22 am Eastern Time
Press Release
SOURCE: Frontline Ltd.
Frontline: Mandatory Notification of Trade
OSLO, Norway, April 12, 2002 (PRIMEZONE) -- Frontline (NYSE:FRO - news) has, based on the Stock Indexed Total Return Swap Programme with Nova Scotia Group (Scotia), been informed that the latter, through market purchases executed today, has acquired 70,000 Frontline common shares. The shares have been acquired at an average price of NOK 90.47.

Since the shares are owned by Scotia the shares will not be subject to immediate cancellation, which has been the case for regular buy backs carried out by the Company. However, these shares will be considered acquired within the current Board authorization to buy back up to 7,500,000 shares (announced on 9 May, 2001). Based on the above, 6,222,145 shares have been acquired within the total authorized, out of which the swap program consists of 2,295,000 at an average purchase price of NOK 73.90.

Hamilton, Bermuda

12 April, 2002

[pat o hat] 10/3/2002 15:19

Today Sunday 10th March:

LONDON (AFX) - OPEC, the cartel which controls 40 pct of the world's oil
output, is set for a bust up this week amid revelations that many of its members
have been cheating on their quotas, according to the Independent on Sunday,
citing industry observers.
At the meeting on Friday, member countries Venezuela and Indonesia, tipped
to be joined by Libya and Algeria, could threaten to walk out, the paper said.
These four, under immense domestic pressure to produce to full capacity, are
expected to demand December's production cuts be revoked as the oil price has
now pushed back above 23 usd per barrel, it added.
OPEC members have reportedly been using loopholes to keep producing at old
levels despite the reduced quotas.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yum yum!

[pat o hat] 07/3/2002 21:37

Frontline was pushing $12 at New York close. The volume is up on yesterday - over 200,000 traded.

[pat o hat] 06/3/2002 22:09

Frontline closed around $11.30 in New York after touching $10.90 earlier. Filling the gap?

[pat o hat] 06/3/2002 00:30

Frontline is off a few kroner in Oslo. Time for the smart money to get in. C'mon, make my day.

[pat o hat] 05/3/2002 01:41

In all the excitement I kinda forgot to say that...

FRO is up 20% in 2 days

It is quoted in London but there are no trades at all and a very wide spread. It is traded in Oslo, and also on the New York Stock Exchange as FRO.N

It can be kept in an ISA

[pat o hat] 04/3/2002 23:26

Get your oil tanker charter market reports here.
Monthly:
Weekly:
Daily:

FRO, OMM, NAT, TK New York 1 year charts, with company links














Frontline is a fleet of oil tankers built up by Norwegian shipping magnate John Fredriksen.


(Get more shipping trivia here. No, I didn't know there was any either )

Ahem. Frontline operates about 60 VLCCs and Suezmaxes. Nearly all new built since 1991.

The consensus earnings for 2001 were 4.4 dollars per share and the share price tonight is 12.3 dollars. Earnings fell steadily through the 4 quarters.

Charter rates depend crucially on the amount of oil that is being shipped. VLCC rates have swung between $20,000 and $90,000 a day, latterly downwards. FRO was a 6 or 7 bagger a couple of years ago for this kind of reason.

Update 10th March: The US seems to be telling Gulf producers it wants the crude oil price held between $18 and $25 a barrel. I think this could be good news for FRO if it means they have to pump more. Check the OIL thread for crude prices.

New York 1 day


Oslo 5 day

[pat o hat] 04/3/2002 23:10

Sorry, finger slipped

[pat o hat] 04/3/2002 23:09

Sorry, finger slipped

[pat o hat] 04/3/2002 23:04

To continue this late night hypathon, Frontline's price-earnings ratio for the year 2001 is now about 2.8. Do you think it is getting overvalued?

[pat o hat] 04/3/2002 17:04

Well, I have bought some at $12.30

[pat o hat] 04/3/2002 08:46

FRO was off 2.75% at 09:19 Oslo time. I figure it may settle a bit now.