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Real-Time news about Euro.Mins. (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|ukgeorge: yeah agree with you, the Aim market is to be avoided and the sb companies are pretty crooked. i've had one other share that caught me out more than this and that was uranium1 which is listed on tsx. uranium price went from$70/lb to $140/lb and the share price dropped from$16 to about $10, pretty similar to eum.
going to short a few of the retailers and maybe a couple of recruitment companies. still got a lot (for me) of shares in these and think it is all going to start coming good soon, may add some spread bets when the trend line is broken.|
|p bear: > the issue is not with the new management, its what the old have done.
For all they did wrong, they got the share price at a very attractive level for those whom want to jump aboard. Days of struggling to mean loans/hedges are over. Sure Lero had to come along and it screwed longstanding PIs, but Yub and Sergei in my IHO will do a good job and won't be touching it unless they thought it is very attractive.
I'd also add that having a hedge in place to get the money for this kind of project is not that unusual and should not be viewed as a big problem (it is well priced in) plus you need to understand that the % of gold hedged will drop significantly as production and reserves (already big update announced see recent RNSs) increase.
There is money to be made from EUM and the potential down the line with Lero reserves made for an interesting chance of growth. Most small cap. shares are struggling, but EUM will become mid cap pretty fast with the cash they will start making end of this year.|
|donaferentes: Thanks ukdavec.
Not a particularly overwhelming presentation, even allowing for the obvious minor language/style barrier - low key and a few details skated over (warrants, what EUM needs to fix production issues finally, e.g.) but all sounded good future stuff.
Still difficult to get a handle on how much of EUM's $250m pa free cashflow will be absorbed by Lero's prospects coming on stream. Although he was quite bullish about being into production within 3 years. Will the whole be > or < than the sum of the parts on a discounted cashflow and asset resource basis = share price within my life time?|
|donaferentes: UKG - "dilution 20%-30% kick in the balls"
Not a bit - we also get added concentrate because we own 72-81% of Lero as well as 72-81% of EUM. The diluytion for all parties is Cannacord's 15% option if exercised and the additional C$20m of placing they can make at their discretion - not too bad as the cost of acquiring new assets.
Good news each EUM share is valued at 98c - not today's price of nearer 90c.
My reading is:-
Basically Cannacord were fund-raising for Lero anyway (under punitive terms 15% option but wtf). Their other client EUM needed bridging loan, so they suggested a merger whereby part of the funds raised for Lero not needed for 6-9 months could be loaned to EUM. Cannacord earn fees and options all round. They need to stick as NOMAD with Lero not EUM 'cos that's who they're raising the cash for through their contacts - but only a technical not a negative resignation from EUM.
Having swallowed Cannacord's costs, the new unit will be using EUM's future cashflow to fund Lero's future asset development. So, dust settled, some questions:-
How good are Lero's assets and their senior management who are coming on board en masse?
Who now will actually run the company? Has this in fact been akin to a reverse takeover?
Us PI's will truly find this hard to fathom without a good deal more time, thought and information.
Happy to hear any contrary views and MORE INFORMATION PLEASE.|
|p bear: I don't know if a PP is a certainty. I also thinks it sucks and there must me many other ways to raise cash during a sort term period with a huge cash flow so close and sales of Cu already taking place.
I am think PP might happen because of this note from a big EUM supporter/underwritter, Canaccord:
On14 April2008 European Minerals reported results for2007.
Negative.Financials indicate a funding shortfall during the second quarter of 2008.
We continue to recommend European Minerals as a BUY and have reduced our target
price from C$1.95 to C$1.70 per share.
We continue to value European Minerals on the basis of a multiple of asum-of-the-parts NAV valuation, assuming our peak gold price scenario of US$1,000/oz and a 5%discount rate.We have assumed an equity issue of US$30 million is undertaken at a 10%discount to the current share price, which reduces our estimated NAV from C$2.04 to C$1.81 per share.We maintained our target multiple of 0.95, as a result of which our target price decreased from C$1.95 to C$1.70 per share.
We consider that securing the funding required to cover its cash outflows for the
remainder of this year and for the remainder of this quarter in particular is the key hurdle for the company. Assuming this is completed, progress towards the revised target for commercial production of September is likely to be the focus of attention.
Plus a PP is what happened last time in this situation.|
|ukgeorge: lets hope all the loose holders have been shaken out and that was the bottom last week. I've lost quite a lot due to some stop losses being hit on spread bets but have moved the majority down further and feel the share price will come back. I also managed to add a few more shares last week.
the fundamentals are still good for this company. I bought in because i wanted exposure/leverage to the gold price so far we havent had any leverage quite the opposite but when we are up to full production we should get some.
Gold price should continue to rise over the next few months and years and we should benefit. As the worst of winter i believe is over in kaz it should become easier to get the mine working better.
From speaking on the phone to eum (friday)the late results should be out by the 14th latest, and fued is going to speak to management about a more regular news flow.
Also the long awaited assay/drill results are still due so thats a near term postive to look forward to.
and copper circuit is up and running judgeing by the few hundred bags of copper so thats some more revenue,
we'll get there,i just hope the wait is worth it.|
|chrismisson555: Just to give insight to how low the share price is relatively to the stage they are at, I know it was a raging bull market then but still compelling:
ISA 2008-2009 bargain me thinks, at least they have cleared the air and to be honest not much too worry about and everything to look forward to.
Average under 60p and give 6-12 months and we all should be happy
The article below was printed by MoneyWeek on the 13.01.2006 @50p
European Minerals (EUM, 50p) is a mining stock that ticks all the boxes. Its project at Varvarinskoye in northern Kazakhstan has proven reserves of 1.94 million ounces of gold and 238 million pounds of copper. This is an open pit with none of the perils of underground mining. Construction of the site is well underway, at a fixed cost of £71m, and with the main Russia-China railway within 14 kms, logistics pose no problem. Construction has been financed by £28m of equity and a £42m loan, repayable over eight years. In the first ten years of its anticipated 15 year life, the mine is expected to produce 1.45 million ounces of gold at an average production cost (reduced by a credit for copper production) of $130/oz. To cover the loan repayment, 443,000 oz of this has already been sold forward at a price of $574/oz. Adding the remaining 1.07 million oz at today’s gold price of $530m, and total gold production in the first ten years nets £357m. Assuming full exercise of the 83 million warrants (exercisable at 58p per share), European Minerals would have issued 279 million shares, valuing it at £144m. Production is scheduled to start in the fourth quarter, and I expect the shares to advance as that date gets closer.|
|chrismisson555: If they ramp up production to full by 3Q 2008 the year 3Q2008-2009 could produce EPS of $0.636 (assumes share price @ 58.5p, average gold miners is EPS $0.32
Gold: 149000oz @575 (take hedge amount) - 2.0 royalties = £41,980,750
Cooper: 26m Lbs @5369 per tonner - 2.0% royalties = £54,898,800
Total: £96,379,250 or $192,758,500
EPS 303m shares in $ = $0.63
Average mining EPS $0.32, difference = 1.96%
Target share price 2008-2009 = $2.30 or £1.15 (95% uplift on 58.5, 110% on 54.5)
1. All gold sold is at hedge price
2. Royalties on Gold and Copper at 2% (mining licence)
I have an average of around 58.5p hence the calculations are around that.
This is quite a negative valuation, but a good starting point, add while you can.|
|ukgeorge: taken of stockhouse forum.
Agnico-Eagle (AEM) just released their 2007 results and they had a cash flow of $229.2 million. This is the equivalent of USD $1.60 per share. Since AEM is trading for USD $66.77 this means they are trading at over 41X their cash flow.
At current metals prices EPM should have a cash flow of around $150 million between Spring 2008 and Spring 2009. This is around $0.49 per share. So, what value will EPM's cash flow be given compared to AEM?
The following chart shows where EPM's share price will be in a little over 1 year if it trades from 10% to 100% of AEM's cash flow per share multiple (I will assume USD $1 = CAD $1 to keep things simple):
10% = $2.01/share
20% = $4.02/share
30% = $6.03/share
40% = $8.04/share
50% = $10.05/share
60% = $12.06/share
70% = $14.07/share
80% = $16.08/share
90% = $18.09/share
100% = $20.10/share
As you can see, even if EPM trades at a whopping 50% discount to AEM's cash flow per share multiple, it would trade for over $10/share 1 year from now. Even at a 75% discount, which is ridiculous, EPM would be trading at over $5/share 1 year from now.
Considering EPM can be purchased today for around $1.30, its upside potential can only be described as outstanding. Even if EPM's share price goes up 10X over the next year, it will still be trading at a big discount when compared to AEM's cash flow multiples. And, there are many other gold producers that trade at large cash flow multiples, so once EPM starts proving-up big time cash flow numbers in their financial statements I expect people to notice.
Who dares, wins!|
|ukgeorge: yeah i have been trying to stay patient and do hold shares in these (my biggest holding). i also agree with you that it will be when the profits start to come through that the share price will really be mooving. but i still do get annoyed that these arent trading at £1 area.
with both gold and copper price doing well the current share price is unfairly low imho. most the risk to do with bringing a mine into production is now in the past.|
Euro.Mins. share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange